Seat of the week: Franklin

With Saturday’s election in the corresponding state upper house seat of Huon fresh in the mind, Seat of the Week takes a visit to the Tasmanian seat of Franklin.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The only seat left standing for Labor in Tasmania after a 9.4% statewide swing at the last election, Franklin covers the Hobart suburbs on the eastern bank of the Derwent River together with Kingston on the city’s southern fringe, small towns further to the south, and the unpopulated southern part of the World Heritage area in Tasmania’s south-west. The remainder of Hobart, including the city centre and the suburbs on the river’s western bank, constitutes the electorate of Denison. As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has an enrolment of roughly three-quarters the national average and an uninterrupted history going back to the state’s division into single-member electorates in 1903.

Labor first won Franklin at a by-election held two months after the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, then lost it again amid the party’s debacle of 1931. The seat subsequently changed hands in 1934, 1946, 1969 and 1975, before remaining in Liberal hands throughout the Fraser years and the first 10 years of the Hawke-Keating government. Labor finally won the seat when colourful Liberal member Bruce Goodluck retired at the 1993 election, which together a strong statewide result for Labor delivered a decisive 9.5% swing to Harry Quick. Quick maintained the seat with only mild swings either way at subsequent elections, although there were occasional suggestions he might be brought undone by internal party machinations. When his preselection appeared threatened ahead of the 2004 election, Quick was able to secure his position partly by indicating that he might run as an independent.

After choosing his own time of departure at the 2007 election, Quick sought to keep the seat out of factional hands by promoting his staffer Roger Joseph as his successor. This was thwarted when a deal assigned Franklin to Kevin Harkins, state secretary of the Left faction Electrical Trades Union, and Bass to the Right-backed Steve Reissig. Objecting that Harkins was a “right thuggish bastard” who would lose the seat, Quick declared that he planned to vote for the Greens. His attacks drew blood as newly anointed Labor leader Kevin Rudd sought to distance the party from unsavoury union associations, with Harkins carrying baggage from the 2003 Cole royal commission into the building and construction industry. Harkins’ position ultimately became untenable in July 2007 when the Australian Building and Construction Commission brought charges against him over an illegal strike. When he won preselection for the Senate ahead of the 2010 election, he was again rolled by the intervention of Kevin Rudd.

With Harkins out of the picture and the election looming, the preselection was referred to the party’s national executive, which maintained the factional balance by choosing the Left’s Julie Collins, the state party secretary and a strongly performing though unsuccessful candidate at the March 2006 state election. The loss of Quick’s personal vote combined with the manner of his departure resulted in Collins suffering a 3.1% swing, one of only four swings to the Coalition at that election. Coming off a suppressed base, she went on to enjoy a 6.8% swing at the 2010 election, the highest recorded by a Labor candidate anywhere in the country. She then emerged Labor’s only lower house survivor in the face of a swing that unseated sitting members in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, her margin reduced to 5.1% by a 5.7% swing to the Liberals that was 3.7% below the statewide result.

Collins was made a parliamentary secretary after the election, and progressed to the outer ministry as Community Services Minister in December 2011. After backing Kevin Rudd’s successful leadership bid in late June she was promoted to cabinet, adding housing and homelessness, the status of women and indigenous employment to her existing area of responsibility. Since the election defeat she has held the shadow portfolios of regional development, local government and employment services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Seat of the week: Franklin”

Comments Page 11 of 19
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  2. poroti

    [A bit like bolshie people take over government buildings in Kiev = Good . Same country’s people take over government buildings in east Ukraine = Bad.]

    That is because four legs good, two legs bad.

    The ones with two legs are from the US, are bankers or are international zionists.

    The really turly evil ones are international zionist jew bankers who are Americians.

  3. The Opposition cannot fight against Budget speculation, they have to deal in facts. Imagine the egg on face if Shorten et al attacked a budget leak and it was not in the budget.

    Its only 6 days until there are real dragons to fight, not shadow boxing kites flying on high.

  4. guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 6:21 pm | PERMALINK
    Shorten did not seem flat to me.

    His content certainly good. First sentence

    Mr Abbott’s first budget is in disarray

    BANG !

    😆

  5. [1 per cent debt tax on people with taxable incomes above $150,000 would affect 7 per cent of taxpayers or about 650,000 people and would raise $700 million a year, researchers said.]

    The numbers cannot be right….Median incomes for this cohort should be around $260,000 pa, based on the last taxpayer stats published by the ATO for 2010. 650,000 x $2,600 (1% of income) = $1.69 billion.

    Even if all 650,000 persons had the same taxable income – $150,000 pa – 1% would be $.975 billion.

  6. … and of course it goes without saying that the ALP changing leaders at the moment would be the worst possible thing to do when the LNP are losing the hearts-and-minds battle. To distract attention back to ALP leadershit … crazy. Shorten is the leader and like him or not the ALP has to back him to the hilt for at least the time being.

  10. [
    Short history’s of the Labor ,Liberal , National and Green parties.
    ]

    Thanks for posting those poroti. I read the Labor and Liberal ones when they were published, but somehow missed the Green and National ones. They were hilarious, in particular the National one.

  11. Lynchpin
    Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 6:10 pm | PERMALINK
    That was Abbott, Credlin and the LNPs’ strength over the last 4 years – simple slogans delivered with conviction every single time so it didn’t matter which 5 seconds was shown.

    Sure, jackol, if that’s what constitutes politics or leadership.

    Exhibit #1 – look where we are now.

    Frankly, I get tired of people bagging Shorten.

    Look at the polls.

    Just reviewed the polls – ‘others’ are trending upwards

  13. Thanks guys.

    2mg diazepam taken with a glass of red. Within 20 mins no pain and I’ve cooked spaghetti bolognaise.

    Diog you’re such a comfort – sometimes 😉

  15. [John Roskam IPA on QnA 5/5/14

    “WE will not give you certainty until the budget is in surplus”

    It appears the IPA speak for the Liberal Govt.]

    John Roskam ran Abbott’s 2010 campaign. Fat lot of good he did. He has since gone off into fairy la la land and thinks he is PM in exile.

  16. proposed tax “levy” has no economic benefit. It will detract from growth by reducing consumption. It will produce no interest rate reduction and, if it lasts four years and raises $10 billion, the most it could save would be $400 million in annual interest — hardly enough to touch the sides of the annual $12 billion government financing requirement…

    Whereas reintroducing the 30% tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000 p/a raises $16 billion

  22. We want to change ALP Leaders from being Leaders of the Opposition to Leaders of the Nation.

    Nothing wRONg with that.

  23. briefly@505

    1 per cent debt tax on people with taxable incomes above $150,000 would affect 7 per cent of taxpayers or about 650,000 people and would raise $700 million a year, researchers said.


    The numbers cannot be right….Median incomes for this cohort should be around $260,000 pa, based on the last taxpayer stats published by the ATO for 2010. 650,000 x $2,600 (1% of income) = $1.69 billion.

    Even if all 650,000 persons had the same taxable income – $150,000 pa – 1% would be $.975 billion.

    “>briefly@505

    1 per cent debt tax on people with taxable incomes above $150,000 would affect 7 per cent of taxpayers or about 650,000 people and would raise $700 million a year, researchers said.


    The numbers cannot be right….Median incomes for this cohort should be around $260,000 pa, based on the last taxpayer stats published by the ATO for 2010. 650,000 x $2,600 (1% of income) = $1.69 billion.

    Even if all 650,000 persons had the same taxable income – $150,000 pa – 1% would be $.975 billion.

    briefly@505

    1 per cent debt tax on people with taxable incomes above $150,000 would affect 7 per cent of taxpayers or about 650,000 people and would raise $700 million a year, researchers said.


    The numbers cannot be right….Median incomes for this cohort should be around $260,000 pa, based on the last taxpayer stats published by the ATO for 2010. 650,000 x $2,600 (1% of income) = $1.69 billion.

    Even if all 650,000 persons had the same taxable income – $150,000 pa – 1% would be $.975 billion.

    The 1% is only on income over the threshold of $150000, not on all income. they still get the tax free threshold of 19000 or so they pay no tax on.

  25. [This is to be Labor’s fault. Trust me, says the finance minister, I’m breaking my promises not because I’m awful, but because those guys are awful.

    Now, before you roll your eyes, let me assure you I’m rolling mine too. As spin and pantomime and rank political cynicism goes, this one is off the charts.

    But the past few years in federal politics have taught me a rather grim lesson: maximum audacity often wins. I’ve seen the Coalition over the past three years carry off more outrageous transactions than the current one, and largely get away with them.

    Whether they get away with it this time depends on the following factors.

    It depends on their storytelling capacity. Tony Abbott’s ability to tell a political story with aggressive simplicity was one of the hallmarks of his success as opposition leader. Whether you liked what he was selling or not, the message was consistent and clear. He seems to have comprehensively lost this art in the transition to government.

    Part of the reason is that government, unlike opposition, is hard: complex, relentless, punishing, unpredictable. The cluttered environment prompts its inhabitants both to over-think and to under-cook.

    Abbott has been absorbed by government – swallowed whole.

    And he cannot deliver the simple world that existed in opposition, because the simple world does not exist. There was always going to be a reckoning, and we are seeing it now.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/07/tony-abbotts-chance-to-show-the-courage-of-his-convictions?CMP=twt_gu

  26. What’s this I’m reading on Twitter?

    Abbott is going to ‘write-off” a $75 million debt that Indonesia owes Australia.

    All this generosity during a budget emergency

  27. RD

    That was something thrown out there to find out who, amongst the Bludgers, is a fifth columnist.

    Comrade, we have walls for your ilk.

  28. [The economist leading the government’s competition policy review has pulled out of a budget-day Liberal party fundraiser after the opposition warned the arrangement undermined his independence.

    Professor Ian Harper was due to speak at the event organised by the North Sydney Forum Liberal fundraising body.

    Harper, a former head of the Australian Fair Pay Commission set up under the Howard government, is now chair of the panel conducting a “root and branch” review of competition policy for the Abbott government.

    Harper had been on a list of speakers at a North Sydney Forum-organised 13 May budget event, which would also be attended by Joe Hockey’s senior staff and key ministers, according to a Fairfax Media report. The report said members were must pay $3000 each to attend and non-members $4000, with cheques to be made out to the Liberal party’s New South Wales division.

    Harper pulled out of the event on Wednesday afternoon after the shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, questioned the arrangement.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/07/competition-chief-pulls-out-liberal-fundraiser

  29. This reflects the underlying weakness in labour demand that has been evident for many months. Slow erosion is the idea….like the anode on the hull of a boat…

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/deewr-leading-jobs-index-falls-again/#comment-358634

    [The Department of Employment’s Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment (the Indicator) has fallen for the seventh consecutive month in May 2014. This signals that employment is likely to grow more slowly than its upwardly revised long-term trend rate of 1.2 per cent per annum over coming months, because the Indicator has fallen for at least six consecutive months. In contrast, cyclical employment has risen for three consecutive months (after falling for 10 months previously)]

    Per capita demand for labour is just going nowhere. The planned fiscal tightening will sap incomes and jobs….madness by the LNP.

  30. Lizzie

    That’s rotten luck when you need your strength for OH. I find a hot water bottle or heat pack gives some relief but mostly patience and remembering to avoid the wrong movements.

    Great links today Bludgers. Thanks all.

  31. [We skipped the light fandango
    turned cartwheels ‘cross the floor
    I was feeling kinda seasick
    but the crowd called out for more
    The room was humming harder
    as the ceiling flew away
    When we called out for another drink
    the waiter brought a tray

    Beautiful song.]

    Don’t forget the contribution from JSB which is 70% of that makes this a great song IMO. No one wrote better descending bass lines that Mr Bach.

  32. 523
    Roger Miller

    Yes…you’re right…They will collect $0.7 billion, about $1075 per taxpayer, on the portion of income above $150,000..so their taxable incomes must average about $257,000.

    Hmm….these punters are not going to get a lot of public sympathy.

  33. I believe that Fran and Deblonay should get together to work up a list of capitalist roaders, militarist bonapartists, kulaks, and imperialist running dogs, for the old ‘sentenced to “ten years without the right to correspond”‘ caper.

    This was, for the cognoscenti of state terrorism, the KGB euphemism for the old bullet-to-the-back-of-the-head.

    Now remind me, of which KGB successor organisation was Putin head?

    For those who like pictures of the buildings of which the cellars were used to expedite non programmatic specifity, liquidation-wise, see:

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/22333463@N02/5031160508

  35. [This reflects the underlying weakness in labour demand that has been evident for many months. Slow erosion is the idea….like the anode on the hull of a boat…]
    So the government is going to hit the economy with budget cuts exactly when it doesn’t need it.

    I wonder if the big cuts will be pushed into the out years, so as to not hit the economy too hard in the next financial year?

    But that could mean big cuts in an election year.

  38. Don’t bet on anyone with a taxable income of >$180,000 paying any extra tax irrespective of what Abbott sets the tax rates to.

    They will find ways to legally minimise their tax, and Abbott knows it. (So do they), its a first order con job.

  39. [They will find ways to legally minimise their tax, and Abbott knows it. (So do they), its a first order con job.]
    Abbott still gets to wear the fact he broken a promise and increased taxes and will be reminded of it for the next 2.5 years.

  40. I’m with others here in feeling a growing concern that the muted deficit levy tax is sucking all the oxygen out of the debate.

    I see Kath Murphy is getting into the kool-aid almost wishing Abbott to wing it in.

  41. [In a 2009 BBC interview,xyz, then leader of the Tea Party, stated his belief that the fact of a spherical Earth is contrary to Christian teaching and should be rejected, along with Darwinian evolution and the fact of rain originating from water evaporated by the sun.[48] Before his death, Abraham reiterated the group’s objective of changing the current education system and rejecting democracy.[49] A Texas academic told BBC News that the controversial cleric had a graduate education, spoke proficient English, lived a lavish lifestyle and drove a Mercedes-Benz.[48]]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boko_Haram

  42. [I see Kath Murphy is getting into the kool-aid almost wishing Abbott to wing it in.]
    Are you capable of reading? Her article is a scathing criticism of Abbott for having a plan for opposition but no plan for government.

  43. National Nine News demonstrated its deep concern for our “economic emergency” by devoting all of 5 seconds to mention in the stock market report that today’s retail sales figures were the worst in 11 months (no graphics).

    Bludgers will be shocked, I say shocked, that this was significantly less time than what they had allotted to a report (with photo) of some Prince (William?) travelling in economy class.

  44. It is well past time to astroturf a convoy of dope smokers, a ditch, a bonfire, a chaff bag, some baseball bats and some boots for kicking someone to death.

    We could get Jonesy to MC the do on the lawns of the House on the Hill.

  46. ShowsOn

    Since you ask, yes I can read.

    I guess it’s a matter of interpretation. I agree there is some critical comment but the underlying theme is positive for Abbott to pull off a big fat lie.

  47. @543

    Not to be a Conspiracy Theorist or anything, but as soon as Malcolm started screwing around with the NBN, the economy started to slow down.

  49. to back showy

    [Now, before you roll your eyes, let me assure you I’m rolling mine too. As spin and pantomime and rank political cynicism goes, this one is off the charts.]

  50. [I’m with others here in feeling a growing concern that the muted deficit levy tax is sucking all the oxygen out of the debate.]

    As I’ve said before, when you look at polling, the deficit tax increases in support when the threshold it kicks in at lifts to levels resembling actual high income earners.

    Now the govt has (as was expected) reset the threshold higher, it’s no longer an issue for most voters.

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