 |
| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The only seat left standing for Labor in Tasmania after a 9.4% statewide swing at the last election, Franklin covers the Hobart suburbs on the eastern bank of the Derwent River together with Kingston on the city’s southern fringe, small towns further to the south, and the unpopulated southern part of the World Heritage area in Tasmania’s south-west. The remainder of Hobart, including the city centre and the suburbs on the river’s western bank, constitutes the electorate of Denison. As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has an enrolment of roughly three-quarters the national average and an uninterrupted history going back to the state’s division into single-member electorates in 1903.
Labor first won Franklin at a by-election held two months after the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, then lost it again amid the party’s debacle of 1931. The seat subsequently changed hands in 1934, 1946, 1969 and 1975, before remaining in Liberal hands throughout the Fraser years and the first 10 years of the Hawke-Keating government. Labor finally won the seat when colourful Liberal member Bruce Goodluck retired at the 1993 election, which together a strong statewide result for Labor delivered a decisive 9.5% swing to Harry Quick. Quick maintained the seat with only mild swings either way at subsequent elections, although there were occasional suggestions he might be brought undone by internal party machinations. When his preselection appeared threatened ahead of the 2004 election, Quick was able to secure his position partly by indicating that he might run as an independent.
After choosing his own time of departure at the 2007 election, Quick sought to keep the seat out of factional hands by promoting his staffer Roger Joseph as his successor. This was thwarted when a deal assigned Franklin to Kevin Harkins, state secretary of the Left faction Electrical Trades Union, and Bass to the Right-backed Steve Reissig. Objecting that Harkins was a “right thuggish bastard” who would lose the seat, Quick declared that he planned to vote for the Greens. His attacks drew blood as newly anointed Labor leader Kevin Rudd sought to distance the party from unsavoury union associations, with Harkins carrying baggage from the 2003 Cole royal commission into the building and construction industry. Harkins’ position ultimately became untenable in July 2007 when the Australian Building and Construction Commission brought charges against him over an illegal strike. When he won preselection for the Senate ahead of the 2010 election, he was again rolled by the intervention of Kevin Rudd.
With Harkins out of the picture and the election looming, the preselection was referred to the party’s national executive, which maintained the factional balance by choosing the Left’s Julie Collins, the state party secretary and a strongly performing though unsuccessful candidate at the March 2006 state election. The loss of Quick’s personal vote combined with the manner of his departure resulted in Collins suffering a 3.1% swing, one of only four swings to the Coalition at that election. Coming off a suppressed base, she went on to enjoy a 6.8% swing at the 2010 election, the highest recorded by a Labor candidate anywhere in the country. She then emerged Labor’s only lower house survivor in the face of a swing that unseated sitting members in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, her margin reduced to 5.1% by a 5.7% swing to the Liberals that was 3.7% below the statewide result.
Collins was made a parliamentary secretary after the election, and progressed to the outer ministry as Community Services Minister in December 2011. After backing Kevin Rudd’s successful leadership bid in late June she was promoted to cabinet, adding housing and homelessness, the status of women and indigenous employment to her existing area of responsibility. Since the election defeat she has held the shadow portfolios of regional development, local government and employment services.
[“@BernardKeane: Can’t blame Fairfax hacks for going on strike. They sack editorial staff but Paul Sheehan continues to have a job? WTF?”]
Replacing him would probably pay for two or three regular journos.
Why can’t he resign ‘for the good of the country’ as Shepherd(?) claimed of public servants.
Simon, Labor doesn’t really need to be out there. The Libs are doing a great job of undermining themselves every day.
I sense also, Dee, that people don’t buy the “Labor mess” stuff.
lizzie@432
Ask your doctor whether Mobic (Meloxicam) would be advisable.
I have been very pleased with its effects in similar situations.
lizzie
Double check furniture for ergonomics. Also maybe use a trolley more than you would previously.
Pain is warning of something
[I pulled something in my back a couple of hours ago. Constant low level pain.
Anyone got any suggestions? I MUST stay well to look after OH.]
See a physio. When I hurt my back I would have done all the wrong things if the pain hadn’t been enough to trigger me going to the physio.
Lizzie
can you take Ibuprofen?
Boerwar
[When the christian Biafrans took to arms the western world was in full (moral) support.
Now that it is islamic northern nigerians, the story is entirely different]
A bit like bolshie people take over government buildings in Kiev = Good . Same country’s people take over government buildings in east Ukraine = Bad.
[ Dee
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 5:33 pm | Permalink
I’m going to cop a lot of flack for what I’m about to say.
A grab of Rabbott confidently stating Labor’s financial mess.
Then a grab of Shorten!
Honestly, Shorten almost had me in tears. ]
Dee – worth a phone call to his Canberra office to ask why he isn’t lifting his game ?
Just a thought – they might get the message if a stack of us start making calls and pointing to examples of our concerns?
What do others think ?
lizzie
When these thing happen they can cause prolonged pain and stiff movement which only exacerbates the problem.
Do you have a friend who could sit with your husband for an hour or so.
I find a very good acupuncturist worked really well for me.
I am 5’95” and have suffered back trouble often.
You need to treat yourself first to be your best for your husband.
[DEBLONAY! YOUR UNDERLINING IS TERRIBLE!]
ShowsOn, your capitalisation is awesome!
MTBW
Chakras being aligned and chiropractors are in the same league as far as I am concerned.
Lizzie
Most medications are useless for that kind of injury. You should try nurofen but it won’t help much.
If you have any benzos like diazepam around, a low dose like 2mg works very well as a temporary thing.
@445
Should add Shorten was talking about the deceit tax….
Just down from the Grassy Knoll.
From the view up there, it appears Abbott mate and Fairfax chairman Roger ‘the grocer’ Corbett has worked out that the ICAC coverage is killing his party, and he has engineered this strike.
dave
I reckon Shorten is doing just fine.
poroti
Do you approve of them?
[I pulled something in my back a couple of hours ago. Constant low level pain.
Anyone got any suggestions? I MUST stay well to look after OH.]
Try some cocaine.
[Should add Shorten was talking about the deceit tax….]
It would be more effective if it was called Abbott’s debt tax.
It is a tax caused by Abbott’s concern about the debt.
Shorten should say WTTE of “That;s bullshit and you know it!”
Lynchpin@465
I’ll have a look at the clip tonight if its on the news – but Dee is clearly worried.
He needs to be in top shape for the budget reply – if he fluffs that – its trouble for Labor.
Oh -Lynchpin – did you see the clip in question?
For fans of Whiter Shade Of Pale, this is spine-tingling.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=St6jyEFe5WM
Shorten did well in the presser
For example he used a question about the Bondi street brawl to talk about the Dr Tax
Diog, Puff and everyone
Thank you. I’ll steal some of OH’s diazepam and see the doc tomorrow (just coincidence I already have an appointment for flu injection. Usually impossible to see her within 10 days).
[445…..Dee
Lizzie
It wasn’t a few second grab. Shorten spoke of the lie and how Coalition ministers don’t support it but he sounded weak and almost at a loss for an angle.]
I think we should remember that Shorten has recently lost his mother. It can take a long time to get over a bereavement. I know that in similar circumstances I’ve not felt much like fighting. Anything but, really. Not so much angry as sad….shaken into confusion I suppose.
I think he’s showing a lot of personal resolve and fortitude. Abbott is nasty. Politics is a game of destruction. He can measure things out. There’s still plenty of time left for Shorten to raise his voice.
Here in Thailand PM Yingluck has been ordered to resign by the courts, over her removal of a senior public servant.
sohar
JTI = Jack the Insider. Pops up on talking pictures on occasion and has a good blog on the GG. If you are unfamiliar with him these efforts will give you an ide. Short history’s of the Labor ,Liberal , National and Green parties.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_short_history_of_the_liberal_party/
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_short_history_of_the_labor_party/
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_short_history_of_the_greens/
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_short_history_of_the_national_party
I suppose when the polls are 60-40 to Labor – and who is to say this might not happen for a little while – there will be some who will want Shorten to lift his game.
Colin Barnett was on the verge of retirement two elections back – that is, he was seen as a no-hope against Carpenter.
Well, how wrong can some be?
The big problem for Shorten is that while he is good sometimes, for the purposes of our current media environment he has to be good all the time.
He can fire up and give a great response on a topic in the morning and be a bit flat on the same topic in the afternoon – guess which one the media will edit into their 5 second grabs on the evening news?
That was Abbott, Credlin and the LNPs’ strength over the last 4 years – simple slogans delivered with conviction every single time so it didn’t matter which 5 seconds was shown.
Diogenes@462
Better still is a stiff scotch or two!
Things look quite grim for Thailand.
As I understand it the court was basically looking for an excuse to depose the democratically elected government, and found their excuse.
The PM’s family, and Thaksin, are not my cup of tea, but deliberately and repeatedly overthrowing democratic elections to go to what sounds like “guided democracy Thai style” …
Even if there doesn’t end up being conflict in the streets (and that seems almost inevitable now) it’s not a good basis for long term democratic freedom.
[I pulled something in my back a couple of hours ago. Constant low level pain.]
Naproxen…works a treat for inflammation…got to see a doc tho.
[That was Abbott, Credlin and the LNPs’ strength over the last 4 years – simple slogans delivered with conviction every single time so it didn’t matter which 5 seconds was shown.]
Sure, jackol, if that’s what constitutes politics or leadership.
Exhibit #1 – look where we are now.
Frankly, I get tired of people bagging Shorten.
Look at the polls.
dave, no, I didn’t see it.
lizzie
[Thank you. I’ll steal some of OH’s diazepam and see ]
That sounds a good bet. Years ago as the result of a sports injury my back muscles were spasming and it was agony. After seeing the doctor I was given a packet of valium (diazepam) . I was pretty wtf ? They told me it was also an excellent muscle relaxant or some such.
They were right. Went from crippled wreck to mildly sore in no time.
Seems Campbell Newman is backing another loser with his changes to the CMC.
Dr Chris Davis MP – Stafford poll – 6th May 2014
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/stafford-poll-drchrisdavis-6may2014
One would have thought he would drive a stake through the budget emergency lie which is the basis of all the Coalition’s proposals.
Shorten was flat and unconvincing!
That is very unfortunate. The Government is trying to pin the Budget pain on Labor’s ‘waste and mismanagement’, supported by a coterie of media supporters.
Labor should flatly state that this is a lie at every opportunity. Our economy and the budget are in better shape than those of most of the developed world. What wasteful spending? Pensions? Medicare? Handouts to private schools? (well, the last one is).
The Liberal’s are trying to start a Thatcherite revolution, including a windback of Pensions and other social security, rolling back Government support for eductaion and health with more users pays, the commencement of the dismantling of Medicare and in due course the break up and sale of the ABC and SBS and pretty much what little remains in public ownership.
They have no mandate for any of this. If they want to do it they can take it to the next election.
@abcnews: #Ukraine Tens of thousands of Ukrainians are joining the army as a possible war with #Russia looms
http://t.co/H38NAXoKS4
Heroin is good for back pain.
Lynchpin – I haven’t generally been criticizing Shorten – I’m quite happy for him to play the boring uninspiring safe pair of hands and hopefully allow the rest of the team to step up and we have a less presidential fight on our hands.
His primary job at the moment is to look stable and safe and to prosecute the case for reform within the ALP, and he has been doing those things.
I’m just reminding people why the evening news grabs might not be very flattering even if Shorten is doing a generally good job.
@GuardianAus: Fairfax Media threatens striking journalists with the sack http://t.co/YHwFxdyeXi
[http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/coalition-pulls-back-debt-tax/
It is now understood the threshold could be restricted to those on incomes above $150,000 paying an extra 1 per cent. This would ensure that the tax hits the highest earners, and spares the middle class – who are likely to face cuts to their welfare benefits in the May 13 budget – from being hit twice…
A 1 per cent debt tax on people with taxable incomes above $150,000 would affect 7 per cent of taxpayers or about 650,000 people and would raise $700 million a year, researchers said.]
poroti
That’s exactly it. Diazepam is an excellent muscle relaxant. It’s great for short term relief.
Oh spare me… !
He’s been in politics how long ??
If you reach the level of party leader, you should be more than ‘ready’…. for goodness sakes !
@492
$700 million is barely enough to pay for the scandals in the LNP that is still coming through.
Apropos of nothing, check out the skills of this child dancing to Beat It on inline skates:
http://www.wimp.com/skatingdance/
In what seems an age ago I used to coach inline hockey, and I saw some very impressive skaters, but this child is exceptional.
Shorten did not seem flat to me.
His content certainly good. First sentence
[Mr Abbott’s first budget is in disarray]
poroti@439
😆
John Roskam IPA on QnA 5/5/14
“WE will not give you certainty until the budget is in surplus”
It appears the IPA speak for the Liberal Govt.
Dio
Thanks for that video agree with you just magnificent!