Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks is well in line with other results to emerge from a busy weekend polling cycle, with Essential Research still to come.

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

703 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 8 of 15
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  1. [I know psephologists like ER because it’s very slow to react…]

    Not so. In his pre-election polling aggregate, Mark the Ballot, whose statistical chops are rather better than my own, excluded Essential on the grounds that it “does not behave like a polling series. In plain English, it does not bounce around enough.” “Not bouncy enough” was likewise the assessment of Kevin Bonham.

  3. @351 – William, I think the trauma of that campaign left me with a selective memory of that time.

    Well it’s good it’s nature is recognised.

  4. “@Kate_McClymont: Mike Gallacher has just quit politics altogether no doubt because of announcement by #icac this morning about damaging allegations vs him”

  5. Unsolicited Proposal!

    ICAC …Sharpe says former Labor MP Joe Tripodi advised Buildev to make an “unsolicited proposal” for a coal loader at Mayfield in Newcastle #ICAC

    There we go again … Use the endemic back door corruption leglislation

    As used by bare knuckle pugilists James Douglas Packer for Barangaroo Casino

  6. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

    [Tropical Pacific continues to warm; El Niño likely in 2014

    Issued on Tuesday 6 May 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

    The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.]

    And this report should be subtitled “Ooohhhh!!”

  7. billie

    There are 5000 graduate teachers per year. At least 50% of them are employed on short term contracts in their first year out, and a high percentage of the remainder find permanent teaching positions.

    Those are the hard figures, not guess work or anecdotal evidence based on false assumptions.

  11. Michaela Whitbourn ‏@MWhitbourn 46s
    Former police minister Mike Gallacher has NOT resigned from parliament. It was just a rumour #ICAC

  12. Temperature anomalies of this magnitude (up to +6 deg c) are at least comparable to those recorded during the last strong El Nino, in 1997/8.

  13. billie

    [zoomie who do you think is going to tell YOU that we churn out more teachers than there are classroom positions]

    Which is why one goes to the stats, which are kept by VIT.

    There are 5000 teacher graduates per year.

    Obviously, some teachers also retire every year.

    So it is obviously untrue that there are 5000 unwanted graduates per year, and this is borne out by research.

    The research is quite vigorous – 1000 of the graduating teachers were interviewed, so the margin of error would be extremely low – and found that the majority of graduating teachers did find work in their first year.

    So both common sense and the evidence points to the idea that there are 5000 teachers graduating each year who are surplus to requirements as being a complete furphy.

    As for your conspiracy theories, we have accurate numbers for teacher graduates (because Universities aren’t just allowed to make numbers up) and for new registrations with VIT.

  14. The afternoon shock jock on 2GB is having a hard time coming to terms with it all. He acknowledges that most people don’t like the Abbott government and what it is doing. But why can’t these stupid people understand that Australia is going the way of Greece?

    His problem of course is that many of these “stupid people” are his own listeners.

  15. Billie
    errrhhhh!! How can you write any report without first reading the similar relevant reports on the subject. If you do not read the previous material you are rubbish and not worth employing.

    If say you are an accountant, architect, engineer, marketer, human resource manager, teacher, nurse, social worker, much of your time is reading and analyzing reports and data. You then summarise them and make recommendations based upon them. You need to analyse what is written.

    Frankly if that sort of skill is not needed then the employer should hire a year 10 leaver. Much cheaper.

  18. ER poll questions

    Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26)

    Results seem contradictory …. reads like old cliché what’s Good for a General Motors is good for America.

    Are respondents really saying looking after business is more important than looking after working families , or are all respondents from large corporates?

  20. briefly @348

    I think ‘The effect of neoliberal monetarist economic policies’ would be a better fit.

    Note that the meteoric rise in household debt begins at around the same time that Howard/Costello ‘bring the budget back under control.’

    The correlation between private profit and public debt has never been so stark.

  22. [
    Results seem contradictory …. reads like old cliché what’s Good for a General Motors is good for America.

    Are respondents really saying looking after business is more important than looking after working families , or are all respondents from large corporates?
    ]

    In my opinion it’s a reflection of the fact that Labor over the last 10 to 15 years has been utterly hopeless at arguing it is better at managing the economy than the Libs.

    I mean, the modern Australian economy is largely the fruits of Labor reforms instituted under Hawke and Keating. Labor should own the economic argument. But these days they just seem incapable of taking up the fight to the Libs who just keep banging on about debts and deficits and how they have to clean up Labors mess.

    I come across it all the time, “Labor racks up the debt and the Libs pay it off” they tell me. Pathetic.

  24. 370
    Jimmyhaz

    I agree completely. It is high time Labor started arguing that measures that help those on median incomes are GOOD for the economy. Policies that even up the distribution of wealth, income, opportunity and reward are good for the economy as well as for households whose welfare is clustered around the median.

    This is a statistical necessity as well as an ethical imperative.

  25. [I come across it all the time, “Labor racks up the debt and the Libs pay it off” they tell me. Pathetic.]

    Ditto!

  27. Ahem, cleanskin Premier from Central Casting is asked in NSW Parliament QT about his involvement with a certain Massey Greene

    Sadly, the question ruled out of order, but for those interested

    [THE Treasurer, Mike Baird, recommended the appointment of a political donor who is also one of Australia’s wealthiest businessmen, Roger Massy-Greene, to a $600,000 position running the state’s electricity networks.
    Mr Massy-Greene was appointed as the inaugural chairman of Networks NSW in July, which will oversee the management of Ausgrid, Endeavour Energy and Essential Energy when they are merged into a single entity.
    He was appointed on a three-year contract worth $200,000 a year. There was no executive search undertaken before the appointment, which was confirmed by Mr Baird in a press release on July 2.
    During a budget estimates hearing at State Parliament yesterday, opposition MPs revealed Mr Massy-Greene’s company, Eureka Capital Partners, has donated $15,000 to Mr Baird’s election campaigns.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/treasurer-grilled-over-job-for-donor-20121009-27b88.html#ixzz30uS2B000

  28. well it seems all Labor has to do to be considered great economic managers is tax the crap out of families, sell everything not welded down and give billions of free money to multinational companies. Not hard.
    /sarcasm

  29. guytaur@354

    “@Kate_McClymont: Mike Gallacher has just quit politics altogether no doubt because of announcement by #icac this morning about damaging allegations vs him”

    Another one bites the dust……

  30. BB

    They butchered Cheltenham Oval? That’s horrible. I used to take No 1 son there for sport. It was a lovely little place. On a spring day, it was idyllic.

    {shakes head in sadness}

  31. Police are investigating the Packer brawl:

    [Police have commenced an investigation into the brawl between billionaire James Packer and Channel Nine chief executive David Gyngell.

    A spokesman confirmed on Tuesday morning that no formal complaint was made by either Packer or Gyngell but eastern suburbs police have launched an investigation and are appealing for any witnesses to come forward.

    “Eastern Suburbs Local Area Command has commenced an investigation into an incident that occurred about 2pm Sunday on Sir Thomas Mitchell Road near the intersection of Campbell Parade at Bondi Beach,” the spokesman said.

    “Police have not yet received an official complaint but have appealed to any one who witnessed, or has vision or images of the incident, to contact Eastern Suburbs LAC on 9369 9899.”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/police-to-investigate-james-packer-and-david-gyngell-brawl-20140506-37tcd.html#ixzz30uStlNHi

  35. There has been an attempt today by the usual suspects to portray the Packer/Gyngell brawl as a tiff between good friends (Hadley etc). Obviously the police think differently.

    Packer’s Barrangaroo casino on the line?

  37. [They butchered Cheltenham Oval? That’s horrible. I used to take No 1 son there for sport. It was a lovely little place. On a spring day, it was idyllic.]

    They’ve only butchered the netball courts so far, but the oval itself is destined to be used as a parking and work yard during construction.

    The parking area is already full of trucks and utes. They ask you to move your car if you park there, but there are no actual “No Standing” signs, yet.

    I warned them, quite specifically, in 2008, but they told me to naff off because they knew better.

    Then they all trotted off and voted in their droves for Greg Smith, who has since lost his job under Mike Baird. Indeed, Smith’s whole department has been relegated to a sub-division of Mike Gallacher’s Police Dept… oh wait a minute… who’s taken over from Gallacher after HE got the chop as well?

    It’s all so confusing.

    Anyway, Ray Hadley would have been pleased. He ran a bit of a vendetta against Smith, after Smith called Hadley’s listeners “red necks”. It was said in private, of course, but a couple of Hadley’s listeners at the meeting with Smith “reported” Smith to the shock jock (“reported” is Hadley’s word, not mine).

  38. It’s all coming together now!

    Gazcorp allegedly donated $137k to a Liberal Party slush fund in exchange for favours from former energy minister Chris Hartcher #ICAC

  39. briefly @374

    Absolutely. One interesting thing that I noted whilst taking a look at the US economy since WW2 was that the wealth of the elite has actually risen at a slower rate since the advent of ‘Reaganomics’ than it did in the three decades preceding it.

    So these economic policies that the Lib’s seem so keen on transporting across, which destroy the economic power of all but that elite, actually cause their net worth to rise at a slower rate than the ‘high-tax, high-spend’ policies that Labor favours.

    It seems to me that their is a common interest here. I think it’s just up to Labor to exploit it.

  40. It wasn’t a good look for a large bloke like Packer to be beating up on a relative midget like Gyngell. What would Packer have done to Gyngell if his minders had not been in attendance?

  41. Gallacher’s claim that as he was innocent of any wrongdoing he couldn’t imagine what it was they were claiming he’d done now looks more than a little shaky.

    One wonders why someone who knew they’ve been dodgy would say such a silly thing. Far better to say that they stand ready to answer any question and cross their fingers.

    And now with Baird apparently a recipient of financial aid from someone who has just been given a cushy job without a proper executive recruitment process, the fun is set to continue.

  42. “@political_alert: NSW Opposition Leader John Robertson will hold a press conference on campaign donations at 3.45pm #nswpol #ICAC”

  46. [What would Packer have done to Gyngell if his minders had not been in attendance?]

    Further bruised Gyngell’s fists using his teeth? 🙂

    Ah Gyngall & Packer, or as they’re now known: Dumb and Dumber.

  47. citizen @ 364

    [His problem of course is that many of these “stupid people” are his own listeners.]

    Love it!

  48. @395

    What the feck!

    SBY still hasn’t been contacted by the Australian government re: Rabbott breaking an engagement?????

  49. DTR of the jobs listed

    “accountant, architect, engineer, marketer, human resource manager, teacher, nurse, social worker”

    Only HR Manager and marketer read reports. Although marketers have to identify competitors when they do their
    SWOT analysis and the top HR people are paid commissions for placing staff rather than writing reports

    I personally want my nurse dispensing bedside manner and my architect synthesizing to my needs which I have presented orally with the local building regulations.

    Zoomster – When I questioned the VIT about the numbers of CRTs my bullshit detector went haywire. The VIT figures are always hazy. If half the graduates get work, that means that 2,500 don’t. Do they linger or do they leave the profession after 12 months of no work? Do the VIT figures mean that 2500 teachers end up in full time classroom positions or get at least a day of employment in the year. I have always worked on the assumption that I want a permanent job, not a day a week in term 3.

  50. sortius ‏@sortius 1m

    Now @ScottMorrisonMP is tricking refugees in community detention into being sent back to Christmas Is? Sickening #auspol

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