Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll in four weeks is well in line with other results to emerge from a busy weekend polling cycle, with Essential Research still to come.

The first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 51-49 in favour of the Coalition last time. Primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (down five), 34% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up three). Tony Abbott is down five on approval to 35% and up nine on disapproval to 56%, while Bill Shorten is up four to 35% and down one to 41%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 41-33 to 40-38.

This is the latest in a polling avalanche which has followed the interruption of Easter and Anzac Day, to which Essential Research is still to be added tomorrow. Three other polls published over the past two days have produced strikingly similar results on the primary vote, from which Newspoll differs in having Labor lower and the Greens higher:

• Galaxy, for the first time adding an online panel component to its live-interview phone polling to produce an enlarged sample of 1391, has the Labor lead at 52-48, with primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 6% for Palmer United.

• A ReachTEL poll conducted on Saturday, also from a larger-than-usual sample of 4016, has Labor’s lead at 54-46, with primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition, 39.6% for Labor, 11.2% for the Greens and 6.0% for Palmer United.

• Morgan’s multi-mode face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted every weekend but compiled fortnightly, has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 according to the conventional two-party preferred method that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election, increasing to 55-45 when preferences were allocated by the respondent. The primary votes are 37.5% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 12% for the Greens and 5.5% for Palmer United.

UPDATE: And now Essential Research comes in entirely unchanged on last week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United. Questions on the deficit tax show the importance of wording in these situations – just as carbon tax questions got a more favourable response when the rationale for them was laid out, inquiry about “a temporary ‘deficit’ tax on high and middle income earners aimed at bringing the budget back to surplus” has support and opposition tied at 34%. However, 48% favour the proposition that “introducing a new ‘deficit’ tax would be a broken promise by the Abbott Government” versus 33% for “it is more important to reduce the deficit than stick to pre-election promises”.

Other findings have “management of the Australian economy” all but unchanged since a year ago, with a total good rating of 40% (up one) and total bad of 31% (down one), but with results by party support having changed beyond recognition; Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen to manage the economy by 33% to 27%; Labor better than Liberal at “representing the interests of working families (47-20), Liberal a lot better than Labor at “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests” (54-13), and Liberal better at handling the economy overall (40-26); 23% very concerned about job losses, 34% somewhat concerned and 29% not at all concerned; 77% believing the gap between rich and poor to have increased over the last 10 years, with only 3% for decreased; 29% thinking their own financial situation good versus 26% for poor; “the cost of living” rated by far the economic issue of most concern (56%, with unemployment in second place on 11%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

703 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Fair enough, it’s 1% for Labor, but this merely leads you on to the rocks of Murdoch’s inexplicable decision to tweak it in favour of the Greens rather than the Coalition, leaving the 2PP no different from everybody else.

  3. Penfold St Henri Shiraz is highly rated.

    I’m going for the Abbott 2013/14 release. A one off, I expect.

  4. ‘the rocks of Murdoch’s inexplicable decision to tweak it in favour of the Greens rather than the Coalition’

    That will appeal the conspiracy theorist.

    Which could be me.

  7. How about the other pollsters William?
    I guessing:
    Galaxy ..+1 to ALP
    Essential ..+1 to Greens AND to ALP
    Nielsen ….??
    Morgan …-1 or -2 to ALP
    ReachTEL…??

  8. There’s not much difference between the bias adjustments for the phone pollsters (Newspoll, Nielsen and Galaxy) – in each case the Greens lose a point or so which is mostly distributed to the majors, a little more to Labor in Newspoll’s case, a little more to the Coalition in Galaxy’s. Morgan has a point taken off the Greens and two given to the Coalition. Essential is based on a trend calculation and thus changes over time, currently being deemed to overrate Labor and underrate the Greens.

  9. William I agree Labor + Green is about right but I wonder why if five pollsters give Labor 37% and one gives Labor 34% why shouldn’t one question it. I love your work in making this the best political blog there is.

  14. Given the Essential bias to stability, I’m going to say that the result from them will be a mere 52 ALP.

  15. [
    William Bowe
    ….
    “House bias”
    ….
    ]
    Given the foundation that polling is working on (statistics); that is a very dangerious conclusion.

    Either the random sample is not random because of the list of names used, the house is being dishonest or there is a problem with the foundation. I don’t like the last option.

  19. [Newsspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy said further analysis showed a statistically significant drop in support for the Coalition among older voters. There was a 10-point plunge in primary support among voters aged over 65 and a six-point fall among those aged 50 to 64 years]

    LNP losing their base, hard to come back from easily.

  20. [
    William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2014 at 5:23 am | Permalink

    I don’t follow you. House bias encompasses two of the three things you’ve listed, and a lot of other things besides.
    ]

    I have been sitting here thinking about it, no doubt the first two get your tick. The last leads to a conclusion there is a god (and a bet you don’t follow that either).

    I think you have to start by discounting dishonesty; where is the value in that?

    I think also we can take god or improbability drives out of the picture; random is random.

    To my mind that leaves only two things I can think of.

    1) The list
    2) The order of the questions.
    3) The time of day; perhaps by dinner we feel less green;

    I don’t know.

    I think it is a very interesting issue, and as you don’t get many examples of different groups seriously measuring for the same data, worthwhile seriously looking into.

  21. It’s “being dishonest” that I don’t consider “house bias”, which I take to refer to all imperfections of survey practice and statistical modelling that cause the results to systematically deviate from reality. When I say I believe Newspoll’s deviance to be house bias plus statistical noise, I mean only that I do not believe that they falsify their results.

  22. But statistical noise should cancel, so you can’t base house bias on that. I agree dishonesty is a silly place to start; so what is it? I can think of three possibilities (just learnt to count). If I was in your game I would be very curious.

  23. [But statistical noise should cancel, so you can’t base house bias on that.]

    Which is why I’m identifying statistical noise and house bias as two separate things.

  24. Throw out dishonesty; accept that you have come to this conclusion after tracking many poll, so throw out statistical noise; accept random is random; so what is it?

  26. I assume your bias is relative to your tracking poll. Thought of two more possibilities.
    1) Morgan face to face is seriously biased to Labor, and it is pulling budget track up.
    2) People on do not call registers vote green.

  28. [I assume your bias is relative to your tracking poll.]

    Depends on the pollster. If I have enough examples to work off, I observe the accuracy of pre-election polls.

    [Morgan face to face is seriously biased to Labor, and it is pulling budget track up]

    The purpose of bias adjustments is to prevent that from happening.

    [People on do not call registers vote green.]

    Quite possibly. If so, file under house bias.

  30. [People on do not call registers vote green.]

    No, wait a minute. Political opinion polling is exempt from the do not call register. And pollsters overrate the Greens, not underrate them (with the exception of Essential).

  31. Meanwhile, the Northern Territory News makes best use of the $250k Lachlan Murdoch forked out for the Packer/Gyngell brawl.

    @mjrowland68: And the winner is…… http://t.co/TFOTGQnupo #PackerGyngell

    Which is but a fraction of the $700k donation Mummy Packer gave the NSW Liberal Party, which of course had no bearing on Barry O’Farrell’s decision to give Jamie a casino license and prime waterfront real estate at Barangaroo without a tender.

    A Packer up our collective Clacker it would appear.

  33. MINIMUM wage earners would need to work more than 80 hours a week to afford to rent in Perth’s outer metropolitan area.

    And for those on the state’s average income, most coastal suburbs would require hours of overtime to be affordable.

  34. Psephos the masses might not be saying it but reckon a fair number are thinking “why did I vote for this rabble?”

  36. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Hartcher writes on Abbott’s troubles with our Indonesian relationship.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-tony-abbotts-tactics-have-caused-a-big-chill-with-indonesia-20140505-zr4zy.html
    Meanwhile details of the particular boat turn back emerge.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-navy-turns-back-asylum-seeker-boat-to-indonesia-after-loading-three-extra-people-20140506-zr55k.html
    Greg Jericho looks at the CoA.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/may/05/ideology-over-evidence-commission-audit-nutshell
    Looks like ICAC is stinging the Libs a bit!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/liberal-elders-call-for-donations-reform-as-hockey-hits-back-20140505-zr506.html
    More disclosures from Manus Island.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/exmanus-island-workers-report-beatings-rapes-of-asylum-seekers-20140505-zr4uv.html
    More on ICAC from Kate McClymont. Tinkler’s a nice type.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nathan-tinkler-donated-thousands-to-the-nationals-icac-20140505-zr4dc.html
    The Guardian lifts the lid on the extent of rinsed money that the Liberal Party as a whole raises.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/05/liberal-party-using-clubs-and-forums-to-reap-millions-in-anonymous-donations
    The Productivity Commission blows holes in the CoA regarding moving younger unemployed around. A path to homelessness.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/report-questions-audit-commission-plan-to-make-job-seekers-move-to-high-employment-areas-20140506-zr50c.html
    Let’s hope this High Court case gets up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/high-court-challenge-could-derail-chaplain-program-pork-barrelling-20140505-zr4y6.html

  37. Section 2 . . .

    Hockey seems to easily take offence on many issues.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/05/is-there-anything-joe-hockey-doesnt-find-offensive
    Peter Martin lobs a bomb on the CoA report.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/hockeys-commission-of-audit-anything-but-responsible-20140505-zr4nz.html
    How “unAustralian” to report this!!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/05/navy-abuse-report-alleges-210-recruits-raped-at-wa-base-from-1960-to-1980
    Frightening!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/old-and-sick-could-pay-five-times-more-for-private-cover-under-audit-proposals-20140505-zr4rh.html
    Anne Summers pans Abbott’s PPL brain fart.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/abbott-has-dug-himself-into-a-hole-over-paid-parental-leave-20140505-zr4r4.html
    This will be interesting to watch as it progresses.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/coles-case-watchdog-bares-its-teeth-20140505-37ru0.html
    Cathy Wilcox asks the as yet unanswered question.

    Beautiful work from David Pope on the North Sydney Forum.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    And David Rowe has some fun at the Forum, too.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    John Spooner – Abbott in “Braking Bad”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html

  38. And from the Land of the Free –

    The weekly upchuck collection.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/05/05/weekly-upchucks-shocking-religion-news-author-k-c-boyd-3/
    I give up!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/05/scotus-okays-prayer-public-meetings
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/05/supreme-court-prayer_n_5266930.html
    FoxNews – what a crock!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/05/1296986/-Fox-News-wonders-if-alpha-women-are-destroying-men-s-lives
    FoxNews trots out the unicorn.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/05/1297020/-Here-s-what-happens-on-Fox-when-Obamacare-succeeds
    John Oliver goes for 12 minutes on the death penalty.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017190207

  39. [The Central America, a sidewheel steamer, sank in 1857, more than 250 km off the coast of South Carolina, with the loss of 425 lives. Previous recovery efforts in 1989 through 1991 netted more than two tons of gold. Odyssey has said that based on certain assumptions, including that the remaining items are in the form of Double Eagle coins, there may still be $US86 million of gold at the site.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/28-kg-of-gold-recovered-from-shipwreck-in-atlantic-ocean-20140506-zr56j.html#ixzz30sZV145X

  42. Morning all. Thanks BK – I was going to post that link to the Guardian story on the Liberal funding club system myself. It really is a pattern of deliberate behaviour to avoid disclosure laws. They raised over $7 million per year! At least union funding of Labor is (hopefully) transparent.

  44. Putting the ABC factcheck story on Chris Bowen saying the coalition has doubled the deficit (true) and Greg Jericho’s piece highlighting the ideological nature of the COA gives you the coalition strategy in a nutshell.

    First manufacture a fake budget crisis. Second use it as an excuse to introduce regressive measures you want to do for personal preference (Ayn Rand ideology). Meanwhile exempt all the areas of big business who are secretly channeling funds to you from any cuts.

    Abbott has no vision for Australia other than turning it into America (without the Bill of Rights). They are an awful government. Have a good day all.

  45. I did not watch Qanda, but i have seen the protest segment on youtube now. Wtf is Tony Jones on about when he says wtte “that this is not what democracy is all about”! Good grief this man is a w@@nker

  46. Morning all.

    RBA decision on interest rates today. Seems most experts are tipping they’ll stay as they are.

  50. Abbott fails to understand the flaws of his own policy

    [Even though Abbott’s scheme is supposed to be funded by a tax levy on big business, the money will be administered by the federal government, through Centrelink, an agency that is already under-resourced and unable to cope with its huge load.

    Just last month the Commonwealth Ombudsmen found that Centrelink is failing its customers and pointed to inaccuracies in family tax benefit payments as being among the agency’s failings.

    Centrelink is known to have antiquated IT systems. Late last year it was facing a backlog of 70,500 outstanding claims for family tax benefits and allowances. The agency has had to cope with its integration into the Department of Human Services as well as being required to sack hundreds of staff, partly as a result of the efficiency dividend imposed by Labor’s last budget.

    How on earth is it going to cope with many thousands of new customers resulting from Abbott’s scheme?

    And, while it might be all very well to promise high-earning women income replacement while they are on parental leave, what about women who have either no or low incomes? What do they get? Under Abbott’s scheme, a very raw deal.
    A full 25 per cent of recipients of the paid parental leave scheme have incomes below the national minimum wage. They get a pay rise while on the current scheme.

    They number around 100,000 – that’s a lot of mothers to get offside by cutting their income.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-has-dug-himself-into-a-hole-over-paid-parental-leave-20140505-zr4r4.html#ixzz30sjqH7BQ

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