The Sunday News Limited tabloids have a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1391 – quite a bit bigger than Galaxy polls have traditionally been in the past – which shows Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 at the last such poll a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and Palmer United is up two to 6%. The poll also finds 65% opposed to the paid parental leave scheme proceeding “in the current budgetary environment”, compared with 23% in support. Seventy-two per cent say they would rate the proposed deficit levy a broken promise, after being prompted that “Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes”, compared with 21% who thought otherwise.
UPDATE: Possum, who reads more carefully than some of us, observes that the higher sample size is due to a change in methodology, with the live interviewing (which I believe in Galaxy’s case includes a subset of mobile phone polling) supplemented by an online panel.
UPDATE 2 (ReachTEL): The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has Labor’s lead up from 52-48 to 54-46, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 39% for the Coalition. More to follow.
UPDATE 3: Full ReachTEL results here, showing primary votes of 38.9% for the Coalition (down 1.1% on a poll conducted in fortnight ago), 39.6% for Labor (up 2.2%), 11.2% for the Greens (down 0.3%) and 6.0% for Palmer United (up 0.4%). Also featured are leadership ratings on a five-point scale, in which Tony Abbott has a very good or good rating from 26.5% (down 4.3%) and poor or very poor from 56.8% (up 5.0%), while Bill Shorten’s respective numbers are 20.8% (up 1.8%) and 42.2% (down 0.4%). A 1% deficit levy has a net unfavourable if applied at $80,000 per annum (34.2% to 40.7%), becoming strongly favourable at $180,000 (59.3% to 23.4%), but 60.2% believe such a levy would break an election promise against 23.5% who think otherwise. Co-payments for doctor visits have 33.5% support and 56.5% opposition, with 59.0% thinking it a broken promise against 28.4% not; and 47.2% would support reducing the size of the public service to bring the budget to surplus versus 34.3% opposed.
UPDATE 4 (Morgan): Morgan now offers its fortnightly result as well, part of a glut of polling as everyone returns to the party following consecutive long weekends (Newspoll to follow this evening). It adds to the general picture of a blowout in having Labor’s lead at 55-45 (up from 52-48) on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 (up from 52-48) on previous election preferences, the primary votes being 37% for Labor (up three), 37.5% for the Coalition (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one) and 5.5% for Palmer United (up half).
Aha! Thanks, Arrnea.
An independent needs 100 signatures — unless they’re an incumbent, when they need only one.
@ sprocket_ 1600
“Whacker”. What a word.
[Q Why won’t Abbott talk to SBY?
A Because SBY refused to pay the $11,000 fee.]
😆
Clever Boerwar.
Albanese’s blanket ‘there has been no corruption in Federal politics in my time there’ seemed a bit sweeping to me, given (cough) some of the things I know about one particular person.
If businesses have the money to donate to parties, then they have enough money to do pay employees.
==============================================
they have enough to lower their prices
AS,
Money and politics is a reality. You really should get used to it.
But influence pedalling is not just about money. Old school tie, religious affiliations, where you grew up and many other factors feed in to this pernicious evil of influence.
Drafting the laws would be a nightmare and totally unenforceable.
How would you legislate the situation today where a Coal mining company donated a person to the Libs top write their environment policy?
Packer Whackers – wasn’t that the name given to Kerry’s cricket traitors?
Abbott’s government should’ve died of shame long ago.
Hmmm…sorry, William, I think that post is inappropriate.
@ GG 1606
It would be treated as a conflict of interest and dealt with in the same fashion that an minister owning shares in a company operating in his portfolio would be dealt with.
GetUp is starting a campaign against the most regressive measures proposed in the budget, which is most of them.
[The result is nothing less than the end of the fair go for all Australians:
A new $15 “Sick Tax” to see our GP and fees to visit public hospitals
Slashing the minimum wage by $130 per week for low-income earners
Increasing the pension age to 70 and including the family home in means testing
Killing off or clawing back family tax benefits relied on by the vast majority of Australian families
Increasing students’ share of university fees by 34%
When billionaire-backed lobbyists disguised as independent experts get the ear of the media and those in power, we need to speak out even more strongly for ordinary Australians. So to fight back, we’re partnering with the Australia Institute — a leading progressive policy voice — to put everyday Australians back at the heart of this
Click here to become a Core Member of GetUp and advance our people-centred vision of Australia against a radically conservative agenda:]
http://www.getup.org.au/BecomeACoreMember
I think the GetUp criticism is pretty fair. Liberal party stalwarts are complaining about the only budget measure I agree with – the tax increase for those on over $100k.
Is James Packer a fit and proper person to own a casino?
[Fulvio Sammut
Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 8:09 pm | PERMALINK
Packer Whackers – wasn’t that the name given to Kerry’s cricket traitors?]
Packer Whackers where the heart starter devices he funded for all NSW ambulances. After one revived him on a polo field.
Maybe they did – what’s left is coterie of zombies.
GG #1337
I agree that Shorten does not have to “cut through” at the moment.
The only question is will he be able to when the time is right …. I think yes, for sure. And he’s showing good judgement that now is not the time.
Abbott is getting sufficient bad publicity all on his own.
Right now the swinging voters don’t give a stuff about who is the alternative PM …. they’ll sort that out whenever an election comes on and as far as they’re concerned they don’t have to waste energy on forming an opinion until then.
@ Socrates 1611
Quite so. This is Fightback on steroids. Perhaps Shorten wants to do Abbott slowly?
Pity he doesn’t have the rhetorical acumen of Keating.
Strikes by China’s transport workers increase as incomes decline http://www.clb.org.hk/en/content/strikes-china%E2%80%99s-transport-workers-increase-incomes-decline …
No doubt we will see the same in Australia
Psyclaw,
Agree.
I expect the weapon of choice will be the COA report. I’m sure there are many areas for Labor to remind the electorate that the current Lib Government has an extreme agenda written and sponsored by the IPA.
Sort of the same campaign the Libs always run against Labor and the unions.
Abbott couldn’t even get the CoA to stay within budget…what chance for Australia
Commission of Audit goes $1 MILLION over budget
AA
What are you carrying on about? It’s only a 100% blowout!
[Commission of Audit goes $1 MILLION over budget]
How many cheese sandwiches and cups of coffee does this represent? 😀
On Friday someone in the government told the media that Abbott was not meeting SBY because the navy was intercepting an asylum seeker boat and the returning orange lifeboat might embarrass SBY.
Why has it taken until late today for Morrison of all people, to say Abbott didn’t go because he has a “very hands-on” approach to the budget and “he’s steering the ship”?
The whole episode sounds like Abbott & co have no idea what they’re doing about the budget and don’t care about Australia’s international diplomatic reputation.
Re GG @1618: at the next election Labor should be urging voters to disregard whatever policies the Coalition present at the time, including / especially any sweeteners. The COA Report represents what they really want to do. Not only the report contents – whatever Abbott hasn’t done by then but also what he has done – proof that you can’t believe anything he promises.
@ AussieAchmed 1619
Not to mention that the net effect of adopting proposals for the commission supposed to recommend savings to the budget would be to put it billions further into the red.
Abbott is slowly working his way through the first 75 policies from the IPA
1 Repeal the carbon tax, and don’t replace it. It will be one thing to remove the burden of the carbon tax from the Australian economy. But if it is just replaced by another costly scheme, most of the benefits will be undone.
2 Abolish the Department of Climate Change
3 Abolish the Clean Energy Fund
6 Repeal the renewable energy target
7 Return income taxing powers to the states
11 Introduce fee competition to Australian universities
18 Eliminate family tax benefits
20 Means-test Medicare
23 End mandatory disclosures on political donations
30 Cease subsidising the car industry
34 End preferences for Industry Super Funds in workplace relations laws
39 Reintroduce voluntary student unionism at universities
44 Devolve environmental approvals for major projects to the states
48 Privatise Australia Post
49 Privatise Medibank
50 Break up the ABC and put out to tender each individual function
51 Privatise SBS
52 Reduce the size of the public service from current levels of more than 260,000 to at least the 2001 low of 212,784
60 Remove all remaining tariff and non-tariff barriers to international trade
69 Immediately halt construction of the National Broadband Network and privatise any sections that have already been built
72 Privatise the CSIRO
GG
You’d think the Labor supporters here would at least in their own minds be able to give ’emselves a little talkin’ to like “well we paid dearly for leadershit for 4 years, so it’d be best if leadershit went 100% off the agenda for a coupla years”.
Some can and have given themselves such advice…. others are just too much sucked in by irrelevancies.
This is all the more so when Abbott is doing so well to limit his term of office all by himself, and when his team is so readily cooperative in that task at hand.
Commission of Audit goes $1 MILLION over budget
Abbott could reduce the payment to his Manly RL clib by a million to balance it out
psyclaw,
The past is another planet.
I’m more interested in the future because that is where I will be living.
Arnea 1616
Agreed. This is a great opportunity for Labor, with so many different groups under threat from the proposals. Shorten and the whole Labor front bench must cut through on this. It is no time for any small target strategies.
Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01 · 5m
The economy is truly stuffed. Westpac made only $3.6bn profit this first half.
sarcasm???
@ psyclaw 1626
Maybe if Labor hadn’t picked a leader who symbolised everything wrong with Labor during the “leadershit” era, on the basis of the factions overriding the membership’s clearly-stated will.
AS
Well, if they’d picked someone like Joel Fitzgibbon or Kim Carr, you might have a point.
Citizen
I think Abbott stayed at home because so many policies and actions and past events are simultaneously unravelling and the unravelling momentum has now got a good roll on.
He’s staying at home under the misapprehension that he can calm things down in the electorate (he can’t; they don’t trust him), that he can assist with turning a crap budget into something a bit sweeter (he can’t; no ability and the horse has bolted), and he is probably wanting to keep a close eye on his internal enemies ie the moderates who may at last be becoming aware that he’s an incompetent jerk, and are being pricked by their consciences.
Good intro for Labor on 4 Corners.
ICAC and uncle arfur mentioned as one pushing for Fofa softening
Oh, and ‘the factions’ didn’t get Shorten up – the votes of those who knew him and worked with him did.
MPs voted across factional lines.
“@4corners: “Australia’s 4 biggest banks now control 80% of the nation’s financial planning industry”. Watch @adele_ferguson’s report next on #4Corners.”
[The only reason Prime Minister Tony Abbott dumped a planned trip to Indonesia was for hands-on involvement in his government’s first budget, a senior minister insists.
Immigration Minister Scott Morrison denies a reported boat turn-back operation is behind Mr Abbott’s cancelled plans to attend a regional forum in Bali on Tuesday.]
Hilarious. You want to ensure the message received by Indonesians that Abbott’s cancelled trip there wasn’t to do with more boat infractions, you don’t send your hysterical Immigration Minister out to do your public bidding.
Seriously, where is this now-infamous Credlin magic which seemingly held all these testosterone fueled morons in check leading up to the election? They are now off the leash and going their hardest to show their true colours.
Arnea
The fact is that Shorten has been selected leader. And many think he can do the job well.
Move on! Give him a chance.
Shorten was not selected leader, he was elected leader in an historic federal leadership ballot by ALP members nationwide.
fess
an election held despite it not being in the party rule book — in the belief that it would unite party members behind the leader.
If those on the losing side keep b*tching, then the clear message to caucus will be that it’s not worth the trouble, and they may as well continue to make the decision all by themselves.
I hold to the views I expressed earlier on $10k a head meals not being corruption on their own, however I found the ALP response today to be pissweak and disappointing.
I think that there is a clear case for an ICAC chaired by a High Court of Federal Court Judge with broad powers and properly independent and funded. That Abbott and Albo say it isn’t needed would make me think it is more needed rather than less. I think Albo sounded weak and stupid echoing the Abbott ‘oh Canberra is clean line.’ first time I’ve thought maybe the party got it right with Shorten.
Donations – I feel dirty saying it but I agree with Jackie Kelly – every donation, I’d set the bar at $50 bucks, should be disclosed online with free and easy access for the whole public within 7 days of the donation being made, and donations should be banned for a period of 14 days before the election, so voters have a full 7 days to review the donations register before the election. Corporate donations should also require the name of an individual that authorises the donation. Yes you can still hide donations and use trusts to donate but at least you’d have one human being linked to the donation.
I’d also be happy with all unions, and lobby organisations (you know all those associations and incs that lobby like the BCA) to have a membership and membership fee disclosure obligation as part of the same register. You would have an exception for think tanks but ban them from donating money.
You could have a rule/exception where you can raise up to $1000 in cash at a function and just disclose that function “sundowner cash donations / raffle proceeds etc $325.”
This is in relation to individual candidates and the specific fund for their election. General party slush funds, and other funding pools should have much tougher rules and obligations, eg every donation of any amount should be disclosed in full within 24 hours and a requirement that the body disclose the names of all the decision makers related to that donation and the source of the funds where funds were ‘directed’ through the pool.
Again I thought labor sounded like a pathetic echo of Abbott today. We know that both the Labor and Liberal barrels in NSW had a lot of bad apples and only a fool would believe a politician running the ‘clean in canberra’ line.
Regarding Shorten
I too have doubts. However he has shown some signs of being up to the job.
The current polls are nothing to complain about.
Its a waiting game. We will get more of an idea from a budget reply speech. The making or breaking of Shorten as Loto is still to come
Shorten can be broken at any time up to the next election. His making will be winning that election. So any judgement now is premature in my opinion.
Bahhhhh
https://twitter.com/krONik/status/450018931852320768/photo/1
ShowsOn
Posted Monday, May 5, 2014 at 8:12 pm | PERMALINK
Is James Packer a fit and proper person to own a casino?
——–good question
no
[Its a waiting game. We will get more of an idea from a budget reply speech. The making or breaking of Shorten as Loto is still to come]
The budget reply speech is probably the first time most people care about listening to what the opposition leader thinks.
zoom:
Exactly. This is an advancement to be proud of, not one to be allowed to be sullied just because some may not like the election outcome.
There’s a bigger goal here, and I feel that some Labor supporters are allowing their personal agendas to seep through to the detriment of this goal.
@OECD_Edu: #Inequality undermines economic growth & well-being: New OECD report just out at #OECDwk http://t.co/Bqd4Ox5zK6
Albanese has shown poor judgment on these probity matters before – he was in the meeting that just shrugged its shoulders and let Macdonald stick around despite serious concerns being raised.
I’d charitably say that Albanese wants to believe the best of people.
@ Jackol 1648
Better to be an idealist who is a poor judge of character than to be fundamentally corrupt.
Mike Whitney,a US writer in Counterpunch denounces Obama and the US for it’s involvement in the Ukraine and as in Iraq and Vietnam… sees the US Empire as the bringer of lies and death
The bloodbath in Odessa is aniother episode in the history of murder by the US
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/05/05/obamas-bloodbath-in-odessa/