BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor’s best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn’t made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 44 of 47
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  2. On the suspicion that Abbott pulled out of Insiders tomorrow:

    [Andrew Greene ‏@AndrewBGreene 1h
    @vanOnselenP pretty sure Christopher Pyne was locked in a couple of days ago

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 48m
    @AndrewBGreene I heard he was put up when TA was pulled]

  4. connie @ 2144

    Yes, so I came across just checking a few pages ago.

    Was that for real? GG saying he’s too sexy? I’d obviously need to better catch up with the thread 😆

  5. Do you really think malevolence is fair GG? I say its more like you love of my fellow man and woman and just helping the lost and naive back on the righteous path!

  6. How ironic zoomster et al your all defending Cormann. Sigh such is my lonely life as an independent truthteller.

  10. Dee:

    On Abbott appearing on PvO’s own program:

    [Lord Lukas Maximus I ‏@LukeQuilty 1h
    @vanOnselenP when was the last time Abbott declined to appear on one of your shows? #auspol

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 53m
    @LukeQuilty standing offer every week, hasn’t been on in a year]

    But he goes on Bolt, and other friendly media outlets. He does the token 730 interview, presumably enough not to draw suspicion that he’s running and hiding from scrutiny, and that’s it.

  11. Bex, by gawd my Mum’s Bex powders worked, as did the ones called Vincent Powders. Whatever they put in them, they snuffed out pain. They got banned because people were addicted to them and ruined some organ or other, kidney, liver or some-such.

  12. ESJ,

    Of course. It’s not a big deal unless you want to go in to another Catholic bashing routine which the masses seem to love here on PB.

  13. The biggest football game of the weekend is undoubtedly the Lions v Wanderers in the GF tomorrow.

    Rugby League and the Ballerina better beware, the A-League is seriously gaining popularity.

  15. Tomorrow’s Sunday Mail cover:

    http://t.co/4VhR6b5H5D

    “STOP THE VOTES”

    ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL .ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL. ROFL.

  16. ESJ

    As the child of a migrant who spoke English with a very thick accent (it was, after all, his sixth language) I take a very dim view of those who think making fun of someone’s speech is a substitute for substantive criticism.

  17. Andrew,

    I’m sure the Libs expect to lose support.

    However, a primary with a 2 in front is the only thing that would shock me.

  20. Confessions

    One point neither side of politics can deny.

    Rabbott cannot think on his feet and needs to be in a controlled environment for interviews.

  26. zoid,

    Abbott’s cunning plan to be the underdog in two years is to totally trash his vote now. ROFL.

    I reckon Malcolm Turnbull might be leading before that ever happened.

  27. Dee:

    I’ve observed before that Team Abbott have none of the same cut through on messaging in govt that they had in opposition.

    Guess the 3 word slogans are built for LOTOs, but not for PMs.

    Not that I’m shedding any tears for them!

  34. The events today in Odessa

    ______It’s a astonishing the hysteria aroused here on PB(reminiscent of 1914 and all that)..and the Russophobia which I suspect would have our boys marching off to Kiev if some patriots here had their way…singing the” Star Spangled Banner “I guess…. and the DLPers here still recall I think the old days of Santamaria and the Cold War
    what a blast for them!

    I will excuse the silly remarks of Geoffrey and hope he gets treatment for his problem(though .I laughed at his calling me a Rasputin.(Drunks can be amusing )

    ..better than last nights insults .,as always , from Psephos,which I expect,as he is a zionist and that is one of their specialities..just ask any Palestinian

    Let’s face the facts today

    These events in Odessa…the killing /murder /burning of 40 pro-russian demonstrators by a Ukr mob…will rebound in next few hours and days in a menacing way,and bring the crisis to a new and very dangerous pitch for the world

    What some here cannot understand is that at home Putin is very popular and will further exploit this event…he is a more clever politican than Tony Abbott(not hard to do)

    He has the support for example of the appaling Orthodox Church ,who make the Vatican mob look quite liberal…I don’t know whether they sodomise boys like some Catholic priests here do ,but that’s beside the point in this context

    He has the support of many conservative groups who remember the confusion and collapse under Gorbechov and Yeltsin…notably the army of pensioners who suffered when inflation wiped out their pensions,which Putin restored

    so what now?

    anything is possible,but Odessa will now be a major item in the debate and in Russian opinion…odd ..just .as it was after the 1905 Revolt there and the famous case of the Battleship Potemkin..so what now ?

    BTW … abuse of me won’t solve the problem and abuse of Putin likewise..I doubt he reads PB

    Putin has a great hand of cards

    The Gas bill for Ukr must be paid in the next month or the gas goes off,,,simple as that
    The EU will be in deep(cold)trouble too …Merkel better get in a very big load of firewood for the whole of Germany if the Ukr Govt tried to tap their gas pipes
    Russia has been described as the Saudi of Gas

    The Yanks desperately need the Russian to keep open the Northern Route..”what’s that you ask ”
    That is a deal in which US materials being taken from Afghanistan as the US retreat gone on…and which cannot go through the now closed Kyber Pass,closed by the Taliban and to big to ship out by air…goes to Euro ports by russian trains

    I suspect the Russians will soon close this escape hatch for the US,… causing the US a huge problem

    Yesterday a Russian politician said the US will need a big trampoline if they want to continue to use the Space Station currently serviced by russian rockets

    so it goes one…but I repeat …abusing me won’t solve the problem

  35. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    ?t=HBgpaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0cGljLmNvbS9zaG93L2xhcmdlL2UycnJoYS5qcGcU1AYUgAoAFgASAA&s=ik-lQsZVYRfqp6bvLpDWlQL0dG5D9c3CgRhvWfgziLw

  38. Gregory Powell ‏@GregoryPowell5 8m
    @randlight I suggest you watch #icac carefully. Something big is about to hit the fan. Forget orange boats

    This is in reply to my question why did Tony Abbott pull out of Insiders tomorrow was it because of Tasmanian wipeout for libs

    Has me in suspense now

  39. “@JustJen64: #AUSPOL RUMOURS ARE RIFE
    what IS going on With Abbott
    why pull out of Bali trip and tomorrow’s #INSIDERS appearance
    what IS the TRUE STORY?”

  42. [2177
    confessions

    Dee:

    I’ve observed before that Team Abbott have none of the same cut through on messaging in govt that they had in opposition.]

    They are trying very hard to “pick the message” as they did while in Opposition. But they cannot control events so their messages are only occasionally relevant to the news cycle. As a result they look either arrogant or out of touch or both.

    For example, on a day when the whole country was talking about pensions, medicare co-payments, broken promises and ICAC, Hockey was talking about windmills while Abbott was playing in a sandpit with the Premiers. They looked as detached from reality as it’s possible to be.

  43. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 31m
    Everyone settle down. Sure TA lampooned JG’s broken promise & said there would be no new taxes under him. But this is only a temporary levy.]

    Jeezus, so is the carbon ‘tax’ only temporary.

  46. briefly:

    Totally agree. And you can add Barnett to the out of touch brigade. Out of everything in the COA he said the most important issue for WA households was the GST reconfiguration.

    Reckon there’d be many households which would disagree with him.

  50. [2196
    confessions

    briefly:

    Totally agree. And you can add Barnett to the out of touch brigade.]

    Barnett is having a shocking run…will throw in the towel before the next election, i reckon

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