BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor’s best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn’t made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 43 of 47
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  2. ESJ,

    So you think Cormann is one of those Nazi war criminals hiding out in Oz because of our boat policy and love of sausages.

    please fill us in on the goss>

  6. Cormann drives me insane with his rote carp ‘Labor’s mess’.

    I listened to an interview on ABC radio and he must have said ‘Labor’s mess’ upwards of more that two dozens times and the comments were irrelevant to the discussion. The interview became totally nonsensical.

    Along the lines of:

    What colour are your jocks? Cormann: Labor’s mess

    The interviewer was notably frustrated.

  7. Well I dont do opposition research Zoomster – but the point is personal backgrounds given to journalists by the interviewee tend not to provide the warts and blemishes do they and usually a sympathetic profile is part of the quid pro quo.

  11. A ‘Heinie’ is an offensive term to refer to GErmans? I thought it was a 1960s American sitcom effort to referencing a woman’s vagina without offending the audience by being so blatantly obvious?

  14. ESJ

    so you’re making assumptions about where people get their info on Cormann from and deciding they’re wrong because of that?

    Very dodgy reasoning.

  17. No zoomster – I know how many of these “biographies ” are dodgy. I am simply urging yall to be sceptical. For a bunch of Labor hacks it shouldnt be too hard.

    Deblonay, amens, inepta est senex placere morem illum

  18. ESJ,

    Because it’s the only place on God’s earth where the “Tomorrow Belongs to me” nutters and “I’m a lumberjack and that’s OK” degenerates could operate with the impunity from prosecution at the same time.

    It’s a juxtaposition of two totallly foreign concepts in a situations where they could actually work.

    Labors two mine uranium policy is the only other example in living memory.

  26. Cormann does sound like Arni I must admit “I’ll be back” lol

    Why does Joe Conomics break out into laughter so often when discussing the budget? It makes his incapability look worse instead of hiding it!

  34. Diogs,

    ‘today is the humblest moment of my life”

    Wait till your daughter puts condoms on the shopping list.

  35. You’re right, ESJ.

    It’s entirely possible that Cormann was, in fact, born and raised in an obscure wheat town outside of Perth, and any resemblance to his accent and that of someone born and raised in Belgium is entirely due to a lifelong obsession with Arnold Schwartznegger films.

    This caused him to change his name from Matthew Connor to Mathias Cormann and stage an elaborate hoax on the Australian populace.

    I’m sure that makes more sense than my explanation of his accent.

  39. “The King of Bithnyia did abuse Caesar on his couch Zoidlord”

    I’m guessing Diogs did the same with the Crows this arvo.

  41. I reckon Diogenes will be more the make toast and coffee for the boy in the kitchen the morning after type parent GG.

  46. Sack cloth and ashes Verity won with 53% of the ALP vote and 65% of the community vote.

    Only Jamie Parker is cheering tonight.

    Verity est delendum

    Deblonay manducat canis cibum

  47. Dee

    not where I got my info. Every single bio of Cormann (going back years) says exactly the same thing – and, spookily enough, he talks just like someone who was brought up overseas and learnt English later in life.

    So I’ll take a risk and assume that the official sources are correct, rather than going with ESJ’s vague conspiracy theories.

  48. Well zoomster all that proves is that the official story or the truth has been scrupulously maintained on the public record – which makes sense when you think about it.

  49. Mmmmm…….

    [The Cormann household was sustained through these difficult years by a state disability pension and the support of the local church, where Mathias served as an altar boy]

  50. z,

    So, you think being logical, totally based on facts and being fair minded will save you from the eccentric malevolence of ESJ?

    You’re dreaming, comrade.

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