Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. [ “chwch’ing” ]

    I suspect something that should only happen between good friends………..like Cory and a Chihuahua?? 🙂

  3. [ “They will be able to travel the length of the 440 metre shaft — from the first to 95th floor — in a stomach-churning 43 seconds.”

    It’s abit like saying, 1Gbps can download in X seconds, but ya know, Coalition Party don’t want to know about it. ]

    Of course they would want to know about it. More Green Army bods in the basement to turn the crank on Gina’s elevator faster?? No prob! 🙂

  7. More muck out of the Qld LNP infighting.

    [FORMER State Government minister and current ethics committee chair David ­Gibson has been accused of stealing $7000 before entering politics.

    The LNP MP was last night seeking legal advice after a dirt file was released, detailing allegations he was charged with four counts of theft in 1999 while an army lieutenant in Canberra.

    The allegations were made yesterday by rogue LNP member Scott Elms – a former supporter of Mr Gibson.

    Newman dumps Police Minister David Gibson

    Mr Elms claims he has documents that show Mr ­Gibson was charged with four counts of theft in 1999 from the Corps of Staff Cadets Mess, with the amount totalling $7335.

    It is understood Mr Gibson was not convicted.

    The allegations are understood to relate to false invoices generated by Mr Gibson.

    Mr Elms says the documents show that Mr Gibson would be discharged without conviction on the condition he enter a 12-month good ­behaviour bond.

    Mr Gibson yesterday said Mr Elms’ remarks were ­“highly defamatory”.

    “It is regrettable that Mr Elms has chosen to trawl through my past to fuel his personal campaign of malice against me,” he said.

    Mr Elms is standing as an independent candidate for Gympie against Mr Gibson. He was kicked out of the LNP this month after criticising the party over the MP.

    Mr Elms said he took the “brave” decision to release the information after failing to have the LNP act on his calls for greater scrutiny of members of parliament.

    Treasurer Tim Nicholls said yesterday the State Government had received preliminary advice that the claims might be in breach of ACT and Queensland law.

    “We need to treat these claims with a high degree of caution,” he said.

    The LNP would not comment for legal reasons and ­declined to respond to questions about Mr Elms]

  9. badcat

    [or those who heard the news over the weekend of the man wedged in a rock crevice, they may enjoy todays Mark Knight cartoon of Abbotts wedging]

    😆

    (not too cryptic I hope)

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    And they have the gall to talk about waste and “dud” submarines! The Yanks themselves – whose own farts don’t stink – reckon the JSF is an overpriced bucket of bolts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-to-buy-58-joint-strike-fighters-20140422-zqxvr.html
    Hardly surprising – both the UN’s criticism and Morriscum’s denials.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/un-representatives-criticise-abbott-governments-boat-towback-policy-20140423-zqxz1.html
    The NSW disease appears to exist at local government level too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/north-sydney-mayor-received-potentially-illegal-donation-from-pub-baron-20140422-372bj.html
    Use of the word “right” might well have been a Freudian slip.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/attorneygeneral-greg-smith-victim-in-mike-bairds-ministry-reshuffle-20140422-372dx.html
    Bruce Hawker on the Libs’ whingeing over ICAC.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/22/the-coalition-whinging-about-icac-is-nothing-new
    Save now – spend more later. The Conversation examines the mooted $6 GP copayment.
    http://tinyurl.com/mjzjb72
    It’s going to be ugly.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cuts-date-imminent-hockey-20140422-zqxuz.html
    Tony Abbott. International statesman extraordinaire!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/22/diplomatic-row-over-tony-abbotts-best-wishes-to-fascist-celebration
    Are we heading for another public vs private school class war?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/more-funding-needed-to-avoid-schools-shortage-and-budget-blowouts-say-independent-schools-20140422-zqxti.html

  11. Section 2 . . .

    Popcorn will probably be required as this plays out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/government-set-to-call-clive-palmers-bluff-on-direct-action-threats-20140422-zqxqe.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/22/clive-palmer-threatens-to-block-carbon-and-mining-tax-repeals
    This is a vexed question. Both lifespan and money for medical attention are finite. No matter what one says, the line must be drawn somewhere.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/health/the-high-cost-of-holding-on-20140422-372e3.html
    And now they are talking of making NBNCo a microcosm of the federal government with respect to policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/nbn-options-open-in-bid-to-cut-costs-could-include-assets-sale-20140422-372lm.html
    Looks like Alan Moir has decided on the style of drawing Baird. Not particularly flattereing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Beautiful work by Andrew Dyson!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    David Rowe with the movie trailer for “Kill the Bill”.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  13. [ CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 7:09 am | Permalink
    badcat

    or those who heard the news over the weekend of the man wedged in a rock crevice, they may enjoy todays Mark Knight cartoon of Abbotts wedging

    (not too cryptic I hope)
    ]

    ————————————————–

    I thought it was a ‘cracker’ – Abbott making an ass of himself

    ( encrypted by a captured 5 rotar enigma machine )

  14. Morning all. BK thanks for the links. I know I can be too negative at times, so I will try to put a positive spin on the F35 decision.
    [US president Barack Obama hailed Australia’s decision to buy 58 F35 JSZf planes as great news for the US economy.
    “This is $12 billion in Australian economic aid being pumped straight into the American job market” he said. “This will help Australia too, by keeping its border safe from heavily armed boats full of asylum seekers coming from Indonesia, Sri Lanka and New Guinea”.

    PM Tony Abbott said “The JSF wil not actually be able to stop or turn back the boats, but its stealth capabilities will be invaluable in sneaking up on them. It will be Shock and Awe II”.

    Treasurer Joe Hockey highlighted the job creation aspects “For $12 billion we will get to employ dozens of PR flacks and defence analysts associated with this program in Canberra for years. And a bloke in Wagga will be the official chamoi cleaning cloth supplier to the entire F35 program.”

    Treasury analysts say the F35 program has already created 32,500 jobs in USA and would create “hundreds more” in Australia. At $50 million per Aussie job it was “fantastic value”.]
    http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140122/DEFREG02/301220015/New-Report-Questions-F-35-Job-Creation-Claims

  22. BK

    It is hard to think of a worse managed government program than the Joint Strike Fighter, or a government body more obsessed with getting its way than the RAAF chiefs.

    These guys convinced the Howard government to sign up before many other US allies were stumping up cash, back in 2002. The genius of this was proven by the fact that it ran so late they then had to spend another $6 billion on 24 stopgap Super Hornets just to fill in the gap.

    Now we are the FIRST US ally to actually hand over the cash to buy a large number of them. So far the UK has bought 4 test examples. Holland and Italy are similar. Why?? I say it is because large programs like this are meal tickets for senior RAAF officers. This is from the Wikipedia article:
    [In 2011 leaked documents revealed that the review and the attempt to purchase the F-22 were simply to satisfy domestic politics in Australia and no serious consideration had been given to any aircraft other than the F-35.]
    My comments on the job creation were sarcastic (though plausible 🙂 ) but I have searched and been unable to find any official figure. Half a dozen government websites extoll the virtues of our industry participation, and claim 30 companies. But nowhere does it say they have hired a single new employee. In fact one of the biggest contractors is British firm BAE, and for all we know they might be doing the work in the UK.

    Someone should ask in parliament how many jobs have been created making the JSF in Australia so far. For these billions, it is a scandal we do not already know.

  23. “@Frank_McGuire: Former Vic. Prem. Steve Bracks says ALP is oldest, most enduring party because of dedication to fairness based on policy, party and people.”

  24. As reported in the Daily Mail

    [The fruitless search for the missing Malaysian Airlines jet might have to start all over again from scratch if no clues to its fate are found in coming days, it was claimed today.
    The international team searching the Indian Ocean for the Boeing 777 are now considering the seemingly impossible scenario of the aircraft having ‘landed’ somewhere, instead of crashing in the southern Indian Ocean.]

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2610035/MH370-landed-not-crashed-Indian-Ocean.html#ixzz2zeqZHsO7
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  25. “@chrismurphys: Right cut indigenous programs & Medicare Locals to buy $12bn fighter plane war toys. Let’s throw another $100m at the pings! #auspol”

    I think he got the lot in that 140 characters

  27. vic

    [But Abbott said they found the wreckage and the black box!!]

    It’s just like the Petrov’s.

    So the plane is in the large vault under West Block just across from Old Parliament House.

  29. Having heard on the radio there is a cyclone ‘dancing’ around I thought I would take a look and see what showed on the BOM site.

    I can’t get the site to open. Is it me? Has Hunt told them to stop the weather? Has Hunt ordered they prevent access so people can’t read about the climate change?

  31. Nyunggai will be very happy to know that the Abbott Government is kicking Indigenous people in the goolies so that the uniforms can play with their klutzfighters.

  33. your $6 doctor fee will be helping fund the $100m in interest per week on the $9billion that Hockey borrowed to give to the RBA

  35. Bw (a x-post)

    The F-35

    [faced problems flying during lightning storms]

    This bit very familiar – We bought some helicopters for the Navy that couldn’t fly in the rain.

  39. CTar1,

    [This bit very familiar – We bought some helicopters for the Navy that couldn’t fly in the rain.]

    What was the problem – windscreen wipers would have blown the budget?

  41. AC

    Three of the planned 24 were delivered.

    They couldn’t make it across Jervis Bay in the rain.

    I think we got our money back without litigation.

  42. The New York Times has an opinion piece about political influence – this certainly seems to apply also to Australia under the Abbott regime:

    [Do the Rich Call the Shots?

    A recent study by Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page examining 30 years of opinion surveys and policy decisions by the federal government found that, “When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites and/or with organized interests, they generally lose.” The average voter has little influence on government, the study found, but the well-to-do hold tremendous sway.

    Has the United States become more of an oligarchy than a democracy?]

    http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/04/21/do-the-rich-call-the-shots-13

  43. Funny how life imitates comedy. The Guardian story on the JSF purchase actually quotes Abbott extolling the “economic” benefits of the decision.
    [The price tag includes weapons, spare parts and maintenance facilities, with Australia’s defence industry set to benefit by up to $1.5bn in flow-on business.

    The fighter program will see $1.6bn spent on new facilities at RAAF bases Williamtown in NSW and Tindal in the Northern Territory.

    “The acquisition of F-35 aircraft will bring significant economic benefits to Australia, including regional areas and local defence industry,” Abbott added.]
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/23/tony-abbott-to-spend-124bn-on-fighter-planes

    So for $12 billion we get 13% local content plus an airbase upgrade we will pay for ourselves anyway? Over the six years of the program it will sustain less than 1000 jobs per year.

    Abbott has really led with the mouth on that comment. He should be asked how many jobs there will be? If he does not know, then how does he know there will be benefits. These job claims are very rubbery. The Lockheed Martin website said there would be $5 billion in Aussie work on the F35. Now it is $1.5 billion. These defense guys lie a lot, even by coalition standards.

  47. “@political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp and Shadow Health Minister @CatherineKingMP will hold a doorstop in Melbourne, 11:45am #auspol”

  50. “@political_alert: Greens Acting Leader, Adam Bandt MP, doorstop on joint strike fighter expenditure and Commission of Audit, 10:45am, Melbourne #auspol”

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