Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Newman tells Alberici that:

    1. CO 2 cleans the atmosphere
    2. There is absolutely no evidence of ill effects of CO2
    3. There has been no warming for 17 years
    4. The climate is in fact cooling
    5. Humans have not effected the climate detrimentally.

    Alberici was 101% out of her depth. She could not address any of his stupid claims with any decent follow up question. So tonight the ABC has given the denial cause one huge, uncontested free kick …… a free advert for a cause which is manifestly detached from reality.

    Newman is an absolute fuckwit and an ideologue. It is an incredible poor reflection on Abbott’s judgement that he has Newman as an adviser.

    Newman’s performance on Lateline was viscerally shocking.

    How has this nation sunk to such a poor level of intellect and public service.

  2. Bemused.

    No. I don’t want to wait. Mr Shorten should take some heed.

    If he is not up for it, tough.

    If the electorate could handle the multitude of Lib leaders, it can handle a change of Labor leaders.

    I simply want rid of this evil regime.

    By whatever change it may take.

  3. [Alberici was 101% out of her depth. She could not address any of his stupid claims with any decent follow up question.]

    I’d be very surprised if that’s the case. LL hasn’t come on here yet, so I’ll be interested to watch her with Newman when it does.

  4. Tom Paine 204

    Re USA Empire and it’s declining power ________
    _______________________
    Ae you aware of some debate in some US circles that suggests that the Neo-Cons and their Israeli allies who never concealed their anger bagainst Obama becauee he had entered into negotioation with the Russians..re both Syria and Iran and it’s nucleur programs
    This made the Neo-Cons looks.,,and find.. a way to damage that detente between Obama and Putin acheived last year

    The Ukraine has proved the perfect issue and may help them, acheive their desires for a conflict with Russia and also with Iran ,using mioitary USA power

    All this would suit the Neo-cons(Victoria Nuland is a perfect example) and the Israelis…asNuland”‘s husband ,Kagan is a constant public spokesman and agent in the US … for the Israelis

  5. Bemused Comrade

    The fiery speeches I referred to were not merely fiery …….. they were well structured, well argued, full of content, powerful and persuasive.

    Your reflection on his “tone” is a pretty vague criticism and not a criticism of moment.

    Shorten chooses to use his speech making skills moderated. This may be a poor strategy, but as to this aspect of politics ie speechmaking, he is suitably capable.

  6. psyclaw@306

    Newman tells Alberici that:

    1. CO 2 cleans the atmosphere
    2. There is absolutely no evidence of ill effects of CO2
    3. There has been no warming for 17 years
    4. The climate is in fact cooling
    5. Humans have not effected the climate detrimentally.

    Alberici was 101% out of her depth. She could not address any of his stupid claims with any decent follow up question. So tonight the ABC has given the denial cause one huge, uncontested free kick …… a free advert for a cause which is manifestly detached from reality.

    Newman is an absolute fuckwit and an ideologue. It is an incredible poor reflection on Abbott’s judgement that he has Newman as an adviser.

    Newman’s performance on Lateline was viscerally shocking.

    How has this nation sunk to such a poor level of intellect and public service.

    I realised he was a farqwit when he was chairman of the ASX during the Y2K hysteria. He was right on board with the worst excesses of it and threatened any company which was not ‘Y2K compliant’ with de-listing.

    WTF is a ‘Y2K compliant company’? No-one really knew. It was meaningless rubbish.

  7. I didnt think Alberici did a bad job.

    Newman came across as the classic elderly, slightly bewildered conservative.

    In the 19th Century he would have opposed the railways and public sanitation measures

  8. crikey whitey@307

    Bemused.

    No. I don’t want to wait. Mr Shorten should take some heed.

    If he is not up for it, tough.

    If the electorate could handle the multitude of Lib leaders, it can handle a change of Labor leaders.

    I simply want rid of this evil regime.

    By whatever change it may take.

    Agree, but if there were to be any change, it should be orderly, negotiated and preserving the dignity of the person replaced.

  9. Re Newman tonight
    _______________
    Like Psyclaw ……
    I too thought that Newman rolled right over Alberici ,and won a great victory for the denialist cause

    She’d have done better to have him debate with someone like Flannery,but she was out of her depth…the worst I have even seen her do..and she floundered all night
    Newman is clever and would have delighted Abbott who would have been listening no doubt
    Bad night !

  10. sortius ‏@sortius 6m

    Isn’t stripping #NBN Co of assets against the legislation put in place to protect it @TurnbullMalcolm? Are you bypassing the law?

    Is that illegal or some how made it legal via loophole ?

  11. deblonay@323

    Re Newman tonight
    _______________
    Like Psyclaw ……
    I too thought that Newman rolled right over Alberici ,and won a great victory for the denialist cause

    She’d have done better to have him debate with someone like Flannery,but she was out of her depth…the worst I have even seen her do..and she floundered all night
    Newman is clever and would have delighted Abbott who would have been listening no doubt
    Bad night !

    No, not Flannery.

    How about the Chief Scientist, Ian Chubb?

    Flannery is a nice guy, but weak at putting his case.

    Chubb would have made mincemeat of Newman.

  12. bemused@135

    ruawake@132


    Anything to do with the Croation community needs to be checked out carefully.


    Yep you go there to support your local constituents, you do not carry a message from the PM of Australia.

    I expect Kelly will not be seeking pre-selection soon after his multiple gaffes.


    I would not attend an event in a building dedicated to the memory of a notorious fascist leader and major war criminal.


    If you are referring to the Footscray community building that has finally been renamed. It annoyed the hell out of me every time I passed that building and saw “Dom Ante Pavelica” (house of Ante Pavelic). I could not understand how this could be allowed here in Australia. When I was growing up in former Yugoslavia we were told how German army was shocked by the atrocities Pavelic regime was committing against Serbs, Jews and Roma(gypsies). And that is saying something considering what German’s themselves did there.

    Craig Kelly has no idea what he is talking about. He goes on and condemns both fascism and communism without realising that those Croatians (in minority) that did fight fascism under Ante Pavelic were in fact communists under Tito. People don’t realise that majority of the opposition in that region came from the local Serbian and Muslim community. But in the spirit of brotherhood and unity, once the war was over, uprising was painted with “everyone was involved” brush.

  13. This Climate Change “debate” of whether or not we as humans affect it is eerily similar to the debate whether or not Lead added to petroleum had adverse effect on nature.

    I watched the last episode of “Cosmos” documentary and it showed how petroleum lobby was for over half a century successful in convincing community that lead was nothing to fear, that it is naturally occurring element and that their practice of adding it to petrol was harmless. How they did it? By having a scientist, “the expert on lead”, keep stating it and protecting the industry. Had it not been for Clair Patterson, a persistent incorruptible scientist, we would still have lead in petrol these days.

    I hope this stupid climate change “debate” doesn’t last that long and we start doing something about it sooner rather than later.

  14. Slav 326 re Ante Pavelic and others
    ___________________
    There is a verym good outline of the wartime croatian fascist movement in a book called “Hitler’s Pope”

    It deals with the now discredited Pope of the wartime period
    The Croatian catholic hierachy was deeply and scandalously involved with the fascist movement in the 1940ies in the Nazi occupation of Yugoslavia

    The book’s author was a noted catholic scholar and editor of the weekly “The Tablet: in London,whose name I can’t recall…but the book was a best seller and should still be around in Libraries et al today
    a terrible account of the Croation fascists movement many crimes

  15. Slav G@326

    bemused@135

    ruawake@132



    Anything to do with the Croation community needs to be checked out carefully.



    Yep you go there to support your local constituents, you do not carry a message from the PM of Australia.

    I expect Kelly will not be seeking pre-selection soon after his multiple gaffes.



    I would not attend an event in a building dedicated to the memory of a notorious fascist leader and major war criminal.



    If you are referring to the Footscray community building that has finally been renamed. It annoyed the hell out of me every time I passed that building and saw “Dom Ante Pavelica” (house of Ante Pavelic). I could not understand how this could be allowed here in Australia. When I was growing up in former Yugoslavia we were told how German army was shocked by the atrocities Pavelic regime was committing against Serbs, Jews and Roma(gypsies). And that is saying something considering what German’s themselves did there.

    Craig Kelly has no idea what he is talking about. He goes on and condemns both fascism and communism without realising that those Croatians (in minority) that did fight fascism under Ante Pavelic were in fact communists under Tito. People don’t realise that majority of the opposition in that region came from the local Serbian and Muslim community. But in the spirit of brotherhood and unity, once the war was over, uprising was painted with “everyone was involved” brush.

    Yes, that’s the place.

    I used to be truly amazed that the RSL wasn’t complaining about it. It would be akin to a German social club dedicated to Adolf Hitler.

    I have read all you say in a publication I bought many years ago.

    But not all Serbs or Muslims had clean hands either. Some collaborated with the Nazis and there was a Serb puppet administration.

    My father’s squadron operated out of Italy for a time and a number of their pilots were rescued by the Partisans. I also have a niece who was born in Belgrade so have tended to Serbian sympathies.

    But some of the darker elements in Serb society emerged in the break-up of Yugoslavia I regret to say.

  16. ******Warning**************

    In one of tomorrow’s papers new detail of the night Rudd was deposed is being released.

    LNP unicorn that never fails.

  17. Bemused,

    [Who is Morris Newman?
    No-one important.
    Mate of John Howard’s,former chairman of ASX, former ABC chairman etc.]

    Is he related to this Newman?

  18. deblonay@329

    Slav 326 re Ante Pavelic and others
    ___________________
    There is a verym good outline of the wartime croatian fascist movement in a book called “Hitler’s Pope”
    —-

    I remember reading a review of that book in The Bulletin. A great headline on it…”Mein Pope”. 😆

    My father had a photo he took in the square where the Pope appears on the balcony. I asked why no-one took a pot shot at him?

  19. Re Climate change debate
    _____________________

    I think we are in a place in time when the Denialists will simply deny and produce” facts” that contradict those of us who believe in climate change”’and there’s little we can do to change their minds

    Watching Newman tonight I sensed just how futile the debate has become…even major climate events may not change their minds..and this is wedded to conservative economic forces that simply don’t want to know …or change their actions at all…liike the oil and coal industries
    Newman in a way is a perfect example of that,allied to a fool like Abbott

  20. deblonay@336

    Re Climate change debate
    _____________________

    I think we are in a place in time when the Denialists will simply deny and produce” facts” that contradict those of us who believe in climate change”’and there’s little we can do to change their minds

    Watching Newman tonight I sensed just how futile the debate has become…even major climate events may not change their minds..and this is wedded to conservative economic forces that simply don’t want to know …or change their actions at all…liike the oil and coal industries
    Newman in a way is a perfect example of that,allied to a fool like Abbott

    Newman was just lying most of the time.

    Alberici was right when she pointed out that neither of them was a scientist, but Newman kept referring to mainly un-named climate scientists who backed him and making false claims such as there being no correlation between CO2 levels and temperature.

    He was just shameless.

  21. Re Croation fascism
    ______________
    A Review here from Wikipedia of “Hiler’s Pope ” by John Cornwall
    The book looks at the life of Cardinal Paccelli who in 1939 became Pope Pius !2

    He was fanatically anti-communist and saw the Nazi movement as a barrier against a communist Germany.He admired Franco too
    The book recounts how in 1933 as Papal Legate to Germany he forced the large German catholic party in the Reichstag to stay out of a hoped for coalition with the Socialists and Liberals in early 1933 which would have kept Hitler from power

    A terrible error and one of many along with many his links with Mussolini and Pavelic in Croatia

    Post WW2,many war criminals from Yugoslavia escaped to the Vatican and then to Spain and then South America…(Argentina being a favourite destination.).. with the help of a college of Croation priests in the Vatican
    This is covered in an informative Australian book of some years ago…’Ratlines”

  22. Today was not only #EarthDay … It was No 1 son’s 30th birthday. We spent some time reflecting on both.

    We had a very nice lunch. We noted the passing of the 400ppmv mark, and the increasing pace of species loss, of decline of glaciers and the coming challenges in water and food.

    It’s always great to catch up, but given the condition of the planet, there’s always a touch of sadness.

  23. Alberici was right when she pointed out that neither of them was a scientist

    Yes, that’s the bottom line in almost all of these types of “debates”.

    The deniers want to start a conversation about the “evidence” that most of them are not qualified to assess or present. Picking factoids that are out of context and that they are not in a position to present the meaning of fairly.

    Ultimately it comes down to the people actively studying the complex field to be able to make judgments about what the evidence is, not people like Newman.

    Alberici’s point is the correct one – she isn’t in a position to debate the evidence and has to take the advice from sources she trusts. As does Newman. It’s just that Newman trusts a particular minority of scientists whereas most of us are putting our trust in the majority.

    Of course either side may be wrong. Our understanding will change over time. “Appeal to authority” is not, in itself, proof of anything, but if the authority you are appealing to can mount the appropriate case then it suffices. Our world is now too complex and too specialized for us all to be experts in everything important.

    We live in a world of non-absolute knowledge and yet we must make big decisions. The fact that there is some marginal debate about what the evidence is doesn’t alter the fact that we should make choices now on the basis of our imperfect knowledge. The evidence may not be clear to us, but the advice is, and the sensible choice is also clear.

    But the politics and the vested interests have lined up against that sensible choice.

  24. Jackol

    100% of public policy decisions are made with imperfect knowledge. That has been true for much longer than the usage of the term, public policy.

    It’s also true of every decision we make in our personal lives. Nobody can know for sure whether what seems the best option right now will look like the best option in an hour’s time or a day’s time of a year’s time,

    We trade in risk and hope for the best. That has got humans, for good and ill, where we are today. If we are smart, we gather and evaluate as much salient data as we can before we have to make a decision, including the datum about how long we have to think about it.

    That’s how we will do it in the future too, if we are wise. Investing in people and technology so as to refine our insights only makes sense if we use those insights to inform our decision-making. Ignoring their advice because a handful of privileged folk want to keep using the ecosystem as a sewer is utterly reckless and misanthropic.

    It also cost shifts onto future generations — something conservatives supposedly want to avoid with debt but don’t care about in the case of the ecosphere. Hmmm

  25. Fran – well said.

    It also cost shifts onto future generations — something conservatives supposedly want to avoid with debt

    Yes. It’s funny how that argument is only raised with respect to government debt & deficit. Anything beyond the budgetary is disregarded when the government’s budget and debt levels are among the least important things for future wellbeing.

  26. Watching Newman on Lateline. Wow, he has obviously been getting his stuff straight from Nuttertruckers.

    Yup, it must all be wrong because Roy Spencer says its wrong.

    Virtually every point he is making has already been extensively debunked. Alberici should just call him out as a fwarking moron.

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