Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. To be fair to Turnbull Woollahra is in his seat, it would be like if i was the MP for Kooyong and choose to mention Canterbury or Balwyn.

  2. deblonay

    Have you been channelling Crikey? Or is it vice versa?

    Crikey has a question about, and of, the Lowy Institute: ‘Why has Carr’s book not been mentioned on the site?’

    Answer-free zone, apparently.

    The implicit broader question, I suppose, is the intellectual integrity of the Lowy Institute when it comes to issues relating to Israel.

  3. Boerwar 252

    re The Lowy Institute site and no mention of Carr’s bool

    Well That doesn’t surprise me…Lowy and the rest would all censor anything or anyone who is critical of any aspect of Israel policy
    Carr better watch out or they will find he is an anti-semite

  4. Boerwar@213

    Bill Shorten was much better today. Must have taken a few lessons.

    We suffered Richo & Jones and Shorten handled Jones with aplomb, even got in a dig about Howard stacking boards, etc.

    Crikey .. Jones is hard to watch. Not something we’ ll do again.

  5. deblonay

    [Carr better watch out or they will find he is an anti-semite]

    I think he earned ‘bigot’ status but I am not sure about the ‘anti-semite’ status.

  6. BW:

    ANy way you look at it, big coal is on the way out, because it is relatively straightforward to de-carbonise the stationary energy system.

    The death of big oil and gas is a lot further off than big coal’s, because there are still many technical problems with transport fuel production and storage that need to be overcome.

    Battery technology for commuter vehicles are coming along very well, but for freight haulage it’s a different story.

    Hydrogen tanks are getting there (H not requiring much more than re-calibration of existing IC engines), but it is still a very energy intensive fuel to produce, and requires expensive catalysts to do at viable levels of efficiency.

    Commercial-scale biodiesel is some way off, but promising.

    Having said that, coal is a lot more carbon intensive than hydrocarbons, and its demise is welcome.

  7. confessions – re: guns and gun control and plastic ‘printable’ guns.

    My uninformed thought on this is that gun control measures might have to shift from guns to ammunition.

    The current ‘printed’ guns are clunky and dangerous for the users, but they will only get better. It won’t be sensible to prevent people from printing undetectable decent quality guns in future.

    Ammo is a different story. You won’t be able to ‘print’ ammo anytime soon, and making non-metal cased bullets seems (to my uninformed mind) nigh impossible.

  8. Boerwar 262 re Carr
    _____________
    If he continues his critique of the zionists he will win anti-semite ststus for sure

    that’s how it’s done

  9. [263
    Libertarian Unionist

    BW:

    ANy way you look at it, big coal is on the way out, because it is relatively straightforward to de-carbonise the stationary energy system.]

    ….and demonstrating that the future we end up with is a matter of investment choice…

  10. BH #259

    Although I wasn’t enamoured with the content, I agree Shortens speech today was strongly delivered and will likely garner public interest.

  11. Briefly:
    [I think the Anglo-Italians were on to something.]

    You mean Ricado? 🙂

    [and demonstrating that the future we end up with is a matter of investment choice]

    Bingo. Decisions are made in the context of the existing stock of physical capital. On the scale of a few machine tools, this is not a big problem. However, when we are talking about a power station with 4 turbines generating 1,480 megawatts of electricity, we have a path-dependent problem!

  12. 264

    Printed guns are only a very small part of the problem. Most of the problem is legally manufactured guns that fall into illegal hands. Tighter gun control in the places with lax gun control would go a long way to helping.

    I would have though that bullets themselves would be highly printable. They are just lumps that have to fly through the air, when shot, unlike gun barrels that have explosions inside them.

  13. To my astonishment PvO tweeted something of substance today re the Howard Govt not increasing compulsory super and thus contributing to the pension worries for our ageing population.

  14. TTFaB –

    I would have though that bullets themselves would be highly printable. They are just lumps that have to fly through the air, when shot, unlike gun barrels that have explosions inside them.

    Modern bullets contain their own explosive material. That’s not going to be possible with printing technology.

    If modern bullets are not used than you are talking reverting to old fashioned shotgun/musket technology with manually inserted gunpowder and inactive shot.

    That’s entirely possible, but it would be a big step down in effectiveness for criminals looking for weapons.

  15. Jackol@264

    confessions – re: guns and gun control and plastic ‘printable’ guns.

    My uninformed thought on this is that gun control measures might have to shift from guns to ammunition.

    The current ‘printed’ guns are clunky and dangerous for the users, but they will only get better. It won’t be sensible to prevent people from printing undetectable decent quality guns in future.

    Ammo is a different story. You won’t be able to ‘print’ ammo anytime soon, and making non-metal cased bullets seems (to my uninformed mind) nigh impossible.

    A lot of serious sporting shooters load their own ammunition.

    The brass cases are re-usable. Powder is generic and thee is no way of controlling what cartridges it goes into. There are only a couple of different size caps. Only tools needed are a press, die to suit cartridge and powder measure or scales.

    That leaves projectiles which, if all supplies dried up could be made with modest effort. As a kid I recall my father casting lead sinkers for fishing. Same principle.

    I don’t think control would be all that easy.

  16. [ davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 8:42 pm | PERMALINK

    I just don’t understand why real Liberals don’t like Turnbull. Perhaps there are too few true Liberals around at present.]

    Because they were in the same room as him when he was LOTO and not only know what he is really like – they are determined not to repeat such a situation again.

    It very telling when your own don’t want you.

  17. Boerwar and Bemused, Comrade

    I thought you two would have been regular watchers of parliament.

    I have seen Shorten make numerous fiery speeches ….. there’s nothing wrong with his voice nor with his passion. It’s just that he chooses to present in a low key manner as a matter of course and only gives his powerful speechmaking a run on specific occasions.

    I’m not saying this is a good strategy or not… only time will tell.

    But have no fear, he can verbally lay the boot in with skill.

  18. bemused – that all sounds right, but the fundamental point remains that plastic printed guns are functional now and will only get better.

    That makes control of their supply basically impossible in future.

    Making bullets is probably fairly straightforward, but it will still take installed equipment and supply chains (the chemicals for gunpowder are fairly basic but your average suburban crim is not going to have access to them in any great quantity). Having established “enterprises”, even if they are backyard shed installations, still allows the law enforcement agencies something to track and potentially control.

  19. psyclaw@278

    Boerwar and Bemused, Comrade

    I thought you two would have been regular watchers of parliament.

    I have seen Shorten make numerous fiery speeches ….. there’s nothing wrong with his voice nor with his passion. It’s just that he chooses to present in a low key manner as a matter of course and only gives his powerful speechmaking a run on specific occasions.

    I’m not saying this is a good strategy or not… only time will tell.

    But have no fear, he can verbally lay the boot in with skill.

    I am not a regular watcher of parliament.

    A firey speech is not necessarily a good speech although it can wind up your supporters at the time.

    As I indicated, I don’t think he has any weaknesses that can’t be easily remedied.

    Tone on the other hand …

  20. Jackol@279

    bemused – that all sounds right, but the fundamental point remains that plastic printed guns are functional now and will only get better.

    That makes control of their supply basically impossible in future.

    Making bullets is probably fairly straightforward, but it will still take installed equipment and supply chains (the chemicals for gunpowder are fairly basic but your average suburban crim is not going to have access to them in any great quantity). Having established “enterprises”, even if they are backyard shed installations, still allows the law enforcement agencies something to track and potentially control.

    The tools used are relatively simple hand tools and easily obtained.

    Old fashioned gunpowder is not used, there are much more modern propellants which again are readily available and sold to sporting shooters. Probably requires production of a licence these days.

    Thinking about the 3D printing, it could probably be used to print the copper jacket of the projectile which could then simply be filled with molten lead.

  21. Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, April 22, 2014 at 8:07 pm | Permalink

    Shorten has a natural voice deficiency. His voice lacks carry, tone, timbre, depth, register and range’.

    He badly needs voice training.

    Yes, definitely. I was afraid of attracting the trolls if I were to speak of such a thing. Silly me. Or is it?

    Those who favor Albo have faith in his ringing conviction.

    Expressed in his voice.

    A serious vox populi difference.

  22. [US could be backing another war:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2014/04/22/u-s-officials-back-abes-military-push/

    TPP still alive and well:
    http://www.menafn.com/1093814410/Japan-US-Summit-to-Focus-on-TPP-and-Alliance%5D

    The US policy of trying to encircle and limit the growth in power of China and Russia, to preserve their own hegemony is more likely to hasten their economic demise. These policies will simply push China and Russia closer together and probably add in India and the remainders of BRICS. The may also be losing the confidence of Saudi Arabia who are making eyes at China. Sauds are worried about the future abilities of USA and the effect on them should its economy collapse, as is likely at some stage.

    But the USA only knows a foreign policy and diplomacy of force, because they have since the cold war seen themselves as answerable to nobody because of this military superiority. However the ability to project and maintain supply lines is failing..and their history is of failure.

    Looks as though the will try and continue to stoke war in the Ukraine. And Im sure China can rely on an insane North Korea to nuke a militarised Japan should they reach that goal. In other words the US can’t see past protecting their power, USD and oil…at any cost.

  23. CW

    a troll is not someone who happens to disagree with you…

    Anyway,

    1. Shorten has given some very good performances in Parliament, with all the passion and eloquence on display that one could desire. Funny how they didn’t make the news, isn’t it? (Perhaps he gave the speeches in the wrong ‘context’).

    2. I’d be careful about cutting off noses to spite faces. The new approach to leadership isn’t in the rules yet – it happened because caucus let it happen. This has sparked other outbreaks of democracy which have the potential to revitalise the party.

    But it will achieve this at the expense of those who presently control the party, so there’s a lot of resistance to this happening.

    Part of the reason for allowing the leadership vote to happen was that it was thought that this would unite party members behind the leader, and put paid to the disunity of the last few years, which (regardless of whose ‘side’ you were on) certainly cost us at least a term in government.

    But it doesn’t appear to have done this. Albo supporters don’t seem to have accepted the decision and are still snarking away because their guy didn’t win.

    If the leadership ballot didn’t achieve the one thing it was supposed to do, not only will that give the party leaders the excuse to walk away from the process in the future but will also allow them to ignore Shorten’s call for change.

  24. debloany @ 258

    Some further reading on that topic

    From Paul Collins ex a ABC Religion dept…
    Abbott and Santamaria’s undemocratic Catholicism
    “Nowadays Santamaria is praised for being an agrarian socialist and anti-capitalist. While this has made him popular with some aging secular leftists, they forget that these movements are romantic, backward-looking, authoritarian and linked with high immigration rates and the mantra ‘populate or perish’ with its racist overtones.

    So what does this have to do with Abbott? I think it would be worrying if this kind of integralist Catholicism infected contemporary public life. It has no place in a pluralist, democratic state. It is also the manifestation of the kind of Catholicism that was abandoned by serious, mainstream Catholics five decades ago.”

    https://theageofblasphemy.wordpress.com/tag/catholicism/

  25. zoomster@287

    CW
    —-
    But it doesn’t appear to have done this. Albo supporters don’t seem to have accepted the decision and are still snarking away because their guy didn’t win.

    If the leadership ballot didn’t achieve the one thing it was supposed to do, not only will that give the party leaders the excuse to walk away from the process in the future but will also allow them to ignore Shorten’s call for change.

    What???

    Where is there any sign of ‘snarking’?

    It seems to me that even those who backed Albo, like me, have accepted the party’s decision and support the leadership. And with good reason. Shorten’s leadership has legitimacy as it was obtained under an agreed rule accepted by both candidates.

    That is vastly different to a backstab in the night.

  26. Zoomster.

    ‘a troll is not someone who happens to disagree with you…’

    I don’t think that at all.

    I am however in agreement with a perception of Mr Shorten and his voice.

    I listened to Mr Shorten today. It was hardly inspiring.

    But.

    Looking for heroes I am not.

    Conviction and follow up will do.

  27. Morris Newman is a farqwit.

    I knew it a long time ago but anyone who had any doubt should see his Lateline performance on climate change.

  28. Bemused.

    I suppose that what is meant by the ‘non acceptance’ is that I and others may think that the better candidate was not chosen.

    I will have to wait for some agonising time to find out.

  29. crikey whitey@296

    Bemused.

    I suppose that what is meant by the ‘non acceptance’ is that I and others may think that the better candidate was not chosen.

    I will have to wait for some agonising time to find out.

    Well seems we both supported Albo.

    But it was a fair contest and a decision reached.

    It should be accepted.

    We also agree that Shorten has some shortcomings in his oratory. But observing that is not a rejection of his leadership.

    Do you want to wait until the result of the next election?

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