Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. [Western Australia’s proposed three-year shark cull program, which is due to begin in November, is to be assessed by the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA).

    It follows an earlier decision by the EPA not to assess a three-month trial of the scheme, which ends on April 30, despite receiving 23,000 submissions during a public consultation.

    EPA chairman Paul Vogel said there would be a detailed environmental assessment of the planned catch-and-kill policy on marine fauna.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-23/epa-to-assess-impact-of-wa-shark-cull-policy/5406350

    Well I’ll be interested to see what they come out with. 23,000 submissions represents a hell of lot of community concern however.

  2. @guytaur/747

    Believe me when he say and I said it before with Coalition Party, if they promise something, do the opposite.

    Corporate Welfare? lol

  3. Boerwar

    “The Greens go all coy about their hidden agenda to disarm Australia.”

    Don’t be an idiot Boerwar.
    Either provide some evidence or STFU

    Bloody coward.

  4. The royals remind me of the Kardashians – famous for being famous for being nothing and for doing nothing.

    I give them a couple of selfies and 15 seconds.

    A couple of decades of Charles and Camilla coming up.

  5. Bw

    [When push comes to shove ]

    Yep. Having been near in communications but remote from one of these situations where the USN would not have gone and the telex on the next desk working away.

    Me, Registry Boy, Who do I tell Sheffield stuffed or Antelope gone south.

    Air coverage was the problem.

  6. “@mscott: He’s not tossing softballs. @afneil interviewing @JoeHockey now, live on @ABCNews24”

    Tell your lot to do the same Mr Scott

  7. Liberals/Hockey

    grandparents competing with their grandchildren for jobs at Maccas..that’s the future Hockey and Libs want for Aust

  8. Astrobleme
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

    Astroblem

    [Boerwar

    “The Greens go all coy about their hidden agenda to disarm Australia.”

    Don’t be an idiot Boerwar.
    Either provide some evidence or STFU

    Bloody coward.]

    Ooooooooooooooooooh. Them is fighting words from a Green!

    The Greens’ policy is a classic case of a suite of policies using lots of words while saying absolutely nothing of substance.

    We all know that the Greens oppose spending any money at all on Defence.

    Show me one statement by any Greens reprsentative EVER supporting ANY defence spending EVER.

    Bet you can’t.

    You won’t find it because the will is not there. The only Defence Plan the Greens have is to STFU about their intentions while opening the door for the TNI to waltz in.

  9. c

    [Western Australia’s proposed three-year shark cull program,…]

    It won’t work. Most of the sharks are in the finance industry on terra firma.

  10. Boerwar

    You got nothing.

    All you do is peddle misinformation.

    That’s why you’re a coward.

    You made a definitive statement, that Pegasus showed was wrong.

    Now you try and shove the burden of proof onto us, with some weird conditions attached because you’re too cowardly to admit your error.

  11. ” The only Defence Plan the Greens have is to STFU about their intentions while opening the door for the TNI to waltz in”

    Idiocy

    You are peddling FUD.

  12. Just received email from Solar Sunwerks.
    “Gas prices to double “in the next two to three years”
    “Victorians are in for a shock over the next two to three years with the cost of gas set to skyrocket.
    A report from the ABC highlights the international pressures that will force domestic gas prices to rise and hurt Australian pockets. Projects from Santos, Shell and Exxon Mobil will all come online later this year. Although primarily for export to foreign markets, the presence of these players will likely increase the wholesale price of gas.Those hoping for a rollback of the carbon tax to deliver savings are likely to be disappointed. After exaggerating the influence of the carbon tax and renewable energy target on household bills (estimated by the ABC fact checkers to be $15 per year) the Prime Minister stands by the gas industry that is now set to launch those same bills skyward.”

  13. Scott Ludlam : http://scott-ludlam.greensmps.org.au/campaigns/security-policy-warming-world
    [The Greens believe that Australia’s foreign policy should be independent and nonaligned, benefitting both the Australian people and the people of the countries with which we engage. We believe our defence policy should not be reliant on the US nuclear umbrella and that our military forces should be geared for defensive rather than offensive operations.]

  14. [Astrobleme
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    You got nothing.

    All you do is peddle misinformation.

    That’s why you’re a coward.

    You made a definitive statement, that Pegasus showed was wrong.

    Now you try and shove the burden of proof onto us, with some weird conditions attached because you’re too cowardly to admit your error.]

    Show me the bit where the Greens support, or have EVER supported, ANY specific expenditure on defence whatsoever.

    The Greens are far too sly to announce that they would not buy any submarines or any fighters.

    Just as they are far too sly to admit that their policies would lead to the closure of Olypic Dam.

  15. “@Clarke_Melissa: “I know the G20 – I chair it!” Joe Hockey getting frustrated with questions about how Aust’s ecoc performance compares to other nations.”

  16. P

    [We believe our defence policy should not be reliant on the US nuclear umbrella and that our military forces should be geared for defensive rather than offensive operations.]

    I get the joke, but do you? Are we only going to have submarines with a range of 100km? Or fighter jets that can only fly 50km and which can only fire when fired upon?

    Very clever camouflage by the Greens.

  17. [Jack Sumner ‏@preciouspress 3m
    Andrew Neil to Hockey “Why is it a disadvantage to be in the fastest growing region of the World?”]

    Who is Andrew Neil? Foreign journo?

  18. [Astrobleme
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 6:53 pm | Permalink

    ” The only Defence Plan the Greens have is to STFU about their intentions while opening the door for the TNI to waltz in”

    Idiocy

    You are peddling FUD.]

    Gimme a break. The Greens are peddling Marijuana and Peace, Man… as a Defence Policy.

  19. [Hockey has solved all of our problems, by adopting Wayne Swan’s spending policies.]

    If he wasn’t chutzpah’d to within an inch of his life he’d be sweating ignominy from every pore in his body.

    That just about takes the frickin cake!

  20. [Andrew Neil to Hockey “Why is it a disadvantage to be in the fastest growing region of the World?”]

    What a come down from their 2007 re-election campaign slogan which was ‘go for growth’.

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