Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Boerwar,

    [Ludlam is a well-known disarmament man.]

    Even if this is true, so what. You made a claim about the Greens (as a group) not wanting an air force or navy.

    The Greens Peace and security policy includes an ADF.

    No link, no proof so your claim can be ignored.

  2. I heard this morning there might be a crowd of 50,000 to watch the visiting celebs in Adelaide today. The news tonight is reporting 10,000 saw the Windsors in town 🙂

  3. BW –

    There are numeous issues about the JSF, of which the most important is that manned aerial weapons platforms are so fin de siecle.

    Yeah. This is what puzzles me about the current air defence planning.

    UAVs built cheap and in large quantities seem the obvious answer.

    All this “stealth” crap becomes largely irrelevant. So a few UAVs get shot down … there are 100s more where they came from.

    But I’m probably being naive and uninformed.

  4. Could anyone tell me why this plane stuff reminded me of this?

    Sea King down

    Sunday, April 2, 2006

    It was a terrible mistake, a terrible, terrible waste. And only now can the true story be told. It began as a mercy mission. An Australian Navy team overseas, saving lives after the tsunami.

    It ended a year ago this Sunday, when their Sea King helicopter crashed and burst into flames on the Indonesian island of Nias — the Navy’s worst ever air disaster. Just two of the crew survived.

    RAY MARTIN: Scottie Bennet was a leading seaman. He led the Sea King in its critical take off and landing manoeuvres. Upfront were pilots Paul Kimlin and Jonathan King.

    RAY KIMLIN: He just loved Sea Kings. He thought they were the big Mack trucks, you know, they were pretty ugly. They were utility. And you know, I thought he would have liked the Sea Hawks or something — no, he wanted the Sea King.

    RAY MARTIN: Did Paul always want to fly?

    CAROLE KIMLIN: Oh yes, he did. Right from a very early age. He was flying solo before he got the licence to drive a car.

    RAY KIMLIN: We actually had to convince him to get his car licence. He was quite happy to just let somebody else drive and he would fly.

    RAY MARTIN: Now, this was the same crew that showed the PM where Australia’s billion dollars in aid money needed to be spent.

    Just hours after Mr Howard’s safe return, Shark 02 went in for routine repairs. The mechanics stripped down the flight control system. Believe it or not, this is what caused the terrible tragedy. This tiny spit pin, at the end of a bolt to keep that nut on. The bolt goes in there.

    It’s a bit like the steering column of a car. What we now know is that the mechanic made a mistake. Either he didn’t put the spit pin in, or else he put it in incorrectly.

    Either way, the bolt fell out of there and the chopper fell out of the sky, out of control.

    DOUG GOODALL: If things had been done correctly, Shark 02 would probably still be flying now. There’s no reason why it wouldn’t be flying.

  5. Boerwar

    [Ludlum is a well-known disarmament man.]
    That’ll be a legacy of being born in Palmerston North. A place where it is very easy to believe nobody would ever bother invading or even threaten..

  6. Player One

    [You can speculate that he was mentally ill all you like – it is more likely that what his wife said was in fact correct – i.e. that he did it out of simple spite and a desire for revenge.]

    I noticed that we were repeatedly told by the media that the guy was mentally ill but it was never backed up by any evidence.

  7. Just had a quick FaceTime chat with my GP about the $6 fee. His industry body has advised GPs not to change anything, the extra $6 fee is not going to the Govt so the GPs can decide not to charge it.

    Quote “If Dutton thinks he can tell me what to charge my patients he is dumber than Springborg”.

    Dutton looks like he is introducing a political turd with no upside. Strange politics.

  8. bemused

    [John Curtin championed the cause of air power in the years before WWII and it is a pity he was not heeded.]

    With you on this one. Just like the F-111 we have, unlike the Septics, the ability to make them work.

  9. [@SimonBanksHB 7m
    .@joehockey falsely claiming #MYEFO was Labor’s last Budget update but he added $68bn in extra spending and changed projections]

  10. The Greens go all coy about their hidden agenda to disarm Australia.

    When push comes to shove they are against particular warplanes, particular warships and particular submarines.

    But they are FOR the ADF. Really.

    For all the far left reasons, of course.

  11. We did have a single Hurricane.

    Its job was to fly over Melbourne and Sydney to reassure the masses about our modern air power. What we had was Brewster Buffaloes with poor sods to fly them.

    We also did not have submarines.

    In short, we lacked the two things that might have made a significant contribution to the war in the Pacific.

  12. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott says he has received “no advice whatsoever” to indicate the plane has landed.

    “Our expert advice is that the aircraft went down somewhere in the Indian Ocean, we have identified a probable impact zone, which is about 700km long, about 80km wide,” Mr Abbott told reporters in Canberra.]

    What?! Didn’t he tell us only weeks ago that he black box had been found and the plane had crashed? Now he’s admitting to have had no no advice whatsoever.

    He needs to STFU and stop running at the mouth about this plane.

  13. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/23/joe-hockey-issues-new-warning-of-razor-gangs-cuts-to-pensioners

    [In a speech ahead of next week’s release of the commission of audit’s 86 recommendations for reining in government expenditure, the treasurer has made it clear that the $40bn a year the government spends on the aged pension is squarely in the budget razor gang’s sights.

    The government has already flagged raising the pension age, over time, to 70, but in the speech to the Spectator magazine in Sydney on Wednesday night, Hockey signalled the changes might be broader, possibly targeting the large number of people on part-pensions or receiving government health concession cards.

    “The $40bn we spend on income support through the age pension is much more than we spend on defence, or hospitals or schools each year. It is our single biggest spending program,” he said, pointing out that between 2010 and 2050 the number of people age 65 to 84 is expected to quadruple.

    And the vast majority of over-65s receive some form of government payment.

    “Of Australians over the age of 65, four out of five receive a full or part pension. If we also take into account the concessionary health card, then only 14% of older Australians receive no government payments,” Hockey said.

    “And the pharmaceutical benefits scheme is the tenth largest category of spending. Nearly 80% of the scheme’s expenditure is attributable to concessional recipients.”]

  14. When was the last time Rhiannon or Ludlam or ANY of the Greens championed a Defence purchase?

    Like NEVER.

    By their deeds you shall know them.

    The Greens Defence White Paper consists of throwing beads (from behind a cover of Marijuana smoke) at the TNI as it walks into Darwin.

  15. blax5 :
    22 Mar 2012 3:03:34pm

    Not sure if all these shiny flying machines are gonna really help us, as the enemy is within, not without.

  16. Boerwar:

    Most of the Greens policies are comprised of meaningless pie in the sky nonsense. It’s no wonder their elected members can’t articulate a coherent position on such matters.

  17. Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 6:25 pm | PERMALINK
    The Greens go all coy about their hidden agenda to disarm Australia.

    When push comes to shove they are against particular warplanes, particular warships and particular submarines.

    But they are FOR the ADF. Really.

    For all the far left reasons, of course.

    And the Conservatives/ALPs real agenda in handing over billions to a particular US corporation (Lockheed Martin) is… ?

  18. RD

    There are many, many things wrong with the way the Liberals and Labor approach defence purchases.

    But handing the place to Indonesia as the default defence position is not one of them.

  19. Diogenes@713

    Player One

    You can speculate that he was mentally ill all you like – it is more likely that what his wife said was in fact correct – i.e. that he did it out of simple spite and a desire for revenge.


    I noticed that we were repeatedly told by the media that the guy was mentally ill but it was never backed up by any evidence.

    Yes, I read several articles that all had the same theme. Here is a direct quote from one of them:

    [ It was there the mentally ill Anderson killed his son Luke Batty before being fatally shot by police. ]

    And here is another similar quote:

    [ His plan, borne from madness, was now complete. ]

    No evidence, no justification for any such claim. “Of course”, the reader is led to assume “he must have been mad – or at least mentally ill – to do something like this – good thing the police shot him before he killed anyone else”.

    This is exactly the same mentality that some here seem to have – all without a shred of evidence.

    I wonder if the claims of “mental illness” in this case have more to do with self-justification by the police for their actions than anything else (not blaming the police here, of course).

    Here is another awful case where the guy was assessed by six psychiatrists, and judged by five out of the six to be not mad, but simply vengeful (the sixth judged him to be “depressed”):

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/arthur-freeman-guilty-of-daughters-murder-20110328-1cdjo.html?rand=1398205643133

  20. “@ABCNews24: Hockey: Too many taxpayers’ dollars have been spent on corporate welfare #auspol #budget2014”

    ROFLMAO. believe it when I see it

  21. “@owrangle: “Can I get away with banging on about means testing and our PPL in the same speech?”

    “Yeah why not no worries Joe.”

    #Auspol #abcnews24”

  22. Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 6:36 pm | PERMALINK
    RD

    There are many, many things wrong with the way the Liberals and Labor approach defence purchases.

    But handing the place to Indonesia as the default defence position is not one of them.

    A cynic would enquire whether the need for the jet fighters is the real agenda behind the transaction?

  23. RD

    [A cynic would enquire whether the need for the jet fighters is the real agenda behind the transaction?]

    A cynic would enquire when the Greens are going to come clean on defence spending.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *