Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. https://theconversation.com/better-urban-planning-can-reduce-the-tragedies-of-domestic-violence-25811
    [These murders have once again thrust the often hidden issue of domestic violence to the fore. In Australia, intimate partner violence is the biggest health risk to women aged 15 to 44. In the first national survey of violence against women in Australia, almost one in four women who had ever been married or in a de facto relationship experienced violence at some time in that relationship. Of women who had experienced partner violence since the age of 15, 36% per cent reported violence during pregnancy; 18% experienced domestic violence for the first time while pregnant.]

    Australian Statistics on Domestic Violence / Australian Domestic & Family Violence Clearinghouse. 22 pages: http://www.adfvc.unsw.edu.au/PDF%20files/Statistics_final.pdf

  2. Player One@640

    bemused@634

    victoria@628

    Mentally ill people also have emotions like fear, anger, desire for revenge etc. And their illness removes their insight and ability not to act on such thoughts.

    So, is it “provocation” or “diminished responsibility” you are pleading here?

    Or perhaps both?

    Impossible to say as he was never examined by a Psychiatrist.

    But if his mental illness was severe enough he would have been found unfit to plead and ended up detained indefinitely at the Thomas Embling Forensic Psychiatric Facility.

    Far more mentally ill people kill themselves and not others.

  3. Re Knights and Dames – when Labor gets back in it should legislate to remove these levels from the Australian Honours system. Such knighthoods and damehoods that had already been awarded by that time should stand, but make sure that this nonsense cannot be revived without the agreement of Parliament. That should kill it off for good.

    Why did Abbott reintroduce them? He wants to change the country. But once he’s gone we’ve got to change it back, including the symbolism.

  4. vic

    [rosie Batty mentioned old people like you that are not going to ever change their mind about these things. She is spot on]

    Charming and very graceful – not!

  5. Boerwar
    [Really. Ask your recently elected Senator from the West.]
    Please provide a link to whatever you claim Ludlam has been saying so that I can evaluate for myself.

  6. [GPs in Australia act as gatekeepers and gate-openers to the more expensive parts of the health system: specialists, diagnostic tests, pharmaceuticals and hospitals. It makes good sense to encourage this part of the system to work more effectively.

    It is more than 50 years since Nobel prize-winning Professor of Economics Kenneth Arrow showed why it made sense for a whole community to share the cost of health care. Shifting costs onto sick people has been seen as bad policy since then, and was wiped off the policy agenda in 1984 with the introduction of Medicare.]

    https://theconversation.com/save-now-spend-later-why-co-payments-for-gp-visits-are-a-bad-idea-25823

  7. BW

    [12-16 submarines would form a significant deterrent even to China. The reason is that that number would be enough to seriously put in question the 40-50% of China’s POL that crosses the Indian Ocean.]

    Ok … so although we lack the crews needed to keep more than 2 of the current 6 subs out there patrolling in search of who knows what, we are going to be able to keep 6 to 8 times as many put there by the time we have spent $40 bn or so. And our governing parties, who have a cry every time China’s growth drops a fraction of a percentage point for fear of the backwash, are devising a strategy aimed at putting a huge dent in it and challenging them to do their worst in return.

    Sounds like a plan … 🙂

  8. I know this is a State issue but it seems to fit in with the current trend in Sydney and Canberra too.
    [Queensland MP David Gibson has stepped down as chairman of Parliament’s Select Ethics Committee after it was revealed he was charged with theft in 1999.

    Former LNP member-turned independent candidate Scott Elms yesterday released court documents that show Mr Gibson was charged with four counts of theft while serving in the Army.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-23/david-gibson-steps-down-as-chairman-of-qld-ethics-committee/5406858

    The case was over $7000 of fraudulent invoices sent to the army. How did he not get convicted? He was 32 at the time – not exactly a niaive recruit. Did he know ex Army officer Campbell Newman? Did Newman know this ex soldier had stolen $7000 from he army, while serving in it, before appointing him chair of the ethics committee? 🙂

    I think I will nickname Campbell Newman “Ali Baba”. At this rate he might only have twenty or so thieves left by the election. There seems to be a pattern emerging here, after Scott Driscoll, the other ministers who appointed family members to staff posts, appointing mates to Departmental CEO positions who then have to resign, and so on. The Qld CJC would be pretty busy, if they were allowed to investigate all this.

    Qld Labor were not popular but at least they were not corrupt. It has taken less than three years to expose at least half a dozen of Newman’s first term LNP government MPs as self-serving grifters. The LNP have returned to Joh era ethics in a single term.

  9. Fran Barlow@650

    bemused

    Given lead times measured in decades, you need to acquire and develop capability long before a threat is imminent.


    No imminent or even longterm threat requiring Australian fighter jet capacity has been identified, and if one were identified tomorrow just as the threat was put at 25 years out, the F35 would be due for retirement by the time we had to consider using it. In 2039, it might well be that those planning some challenge to us back here in 2014 would have something rather different than what they have now, and the defensive strategies might be sharply different.

    Imagine, in 1989 planning your IT strategy for 2014. You’d have looked pretty silly in hindsight. The 1989 folks would have laughed at the guesses of those in 1964 about IT’s relevance too. Spending truckloads of money ordering aircraft to serve us against unknown enemies with unknown strategic aims and unknowable technological capacity seems utterly ridiculous.

    Wouldn’t make far more sense to wait until we have a sound basis for thinking there is a threat, evaluating its scope and quality and the timeline on which we have to parry the threat, the costs of missing that timeline and so forth and then working out which solutions meet feasibility?

    I’d say so.

    I have said I don’t think the F-35 is a wise choice.

    In your example, a replacement for the F-35 would have been identified and be starting to enter service ahead of F-35 retirement.

    Those poor buggers who faced up to Japanese Zeros in Wirraway’s would see things rather differently to what you seem to.

  10. P!

    You outsmarted yourself @ 661. Look at the record. There was some assessment. Just not followed up.

    The truth is that better assessment and follow up of mentally ill people will mean less hiding of those sane ones that think controlling women as they have been taught by society is ok.

    The message has to be it makes you less of a person and is a criminally uncool act towards another person. No hiding behind mental illness.

  11. Further checking and sure enough David Gibson and Campbell Newman were both graduates of Duntroon in the 1980s. As thick as thieves 🙂

  12. Some exports have bipartisan support.

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/04/23/robb-fast-tracks-uae-uranium-deal
    [In a move that marks the first time Australia uranium would be sold to the Middle East, Trade Minister Andrew Robb is fast-tracking a nuclear cooperation agreement with the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

    The foundation for these sales was laid by former foreign minister and airline food critic Bob Carr, who signed the initial agreement with the UAE — a country with a secretive, unelected government situated in one of the world’s most insecure regions.]

  13. mtbw

    Let me get this straight. Me taking the word of Rosie batty who was a victim of domestic violence, and had the tragedy of witnessing her ex partner murder her son in front of her, makes me omniscient. Go figure

  14. Player One@661

    bemused@653

    Player One@640

    Impossible to say as he was never examined by a Psychiatrist.

    So .. you actually have no basis at all for your arguments then?

    Glad we got that sorted!

    It was known he was mentally ill, but I don’t know if he had ever been assessed by a psychiatrist.
    And if he had survived and been charged with murder, he would have been assessed by the best in the field.
    I have every basis for my statements.

  15. Lizzie 535. Re promises.

    647
    crikey whitey
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    “I demand that journos provide Abbott’s definition of “commitments”. Apparently they are not the same as promises or policies, but they are the ones he’s now promising he will keep”.

    What someone said about Tony.

    Tony Abbott is ‘a bludger’ October 12, 2013 Mike Carlton

    We know that you expect us to be as frugal and prudent with your money, which we hold on trust from you, as you would be with your own hard-earned savings.
    Tony Abbott, policy speech, August 25, 2013.

    The Prime Minister is a bludger. A loaded word, I know, but it is a perfectly good Australian expression and it describes exactly what Tony Abbott was up to as he swanned around from bike ride to fun run at the taxpayers’ expense. He was bludging on us.
    Read more.

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-is-a-bludger-20131011-2vdkq.html#ixzz2zgvJmsJP

  16. guytaur@669

    P!

    You outsmarted yourself @ 661. Look at the record. There was some assessment. Just not followed up.

    You mean I can’t take bemused’s word for it?

    He was wrong on that too?

  17. [Fran Barlow
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

    BW

    12-16 submarines would form a significant deterrent even to China. The reason is that that number would be enough to seriously put in question the 40-50% of China’s POL that crosses the Indian Ocean.

    Ok … so although we lack the crews needed to keep more than 2 of the current 6 subs out there patrolling in search of who knows what, we are going to be able to keep 6 to 8 times as many put there by the time we have spent $40 bn or so. And our governing parties, who have a cry every time China’s growth drops a fraction of a percentage point for fear of the backwash, are devising a strategy aimed at putting a huge dent in it and challenging them to do their worst in return.

    Sounds like a plan … :-)]

    (1) I know that you don’t want Australia to have an airforce or a navy. You should just say it so that people know where you are coming from.
    (2) You should also explain why you know that a couple of millenia of warfare in east, south and south-east asia is going to be so seriously disrupted that we don’t really need an air force or a navy.
    (3) We don’t have to spend $40 billion to achieve 12 subs. In any case, the cost of the subs is irrelevant to the deterrance value, which you have ignored.
    (4) Getting rid of the two helicopter landing ship would enable redeployment of crew to the subs.
    (5) IMHO we have four strategic options over the next century: vassal state to china, india, Japan or Indonesia. Eschewing any deterrance basically hands it Indonesia by default.

  18. Dame Whitey@676
    [ The Prime Minister is a bludger. A loaded word, I know, but it is a perfectly good Australian expression and it describes exactly what Tony Abbott was up to as he swanned around from bike ride to fun run at the taxpayers’ expense. He was bludging on us.
    Read more. ]

    Now Abbott is giving us real Bludgers a bad name!

  19. The JSF con has been going on for decades, it will never be delivered. The last US Senate committee found they were duds, behind schedule, and the software required was years behind in development in fact it may never be able to do what the designers hoped.

    From memory the mean time between critical failure stands at 13 hours.

    The JSF is obsolete now, it will be a dinosaur in 2030 if it ever flies a combat mission.

  20. Lizzie 535. Promises.

    What someone else said about Tony.

    Comment in the Spectator.
    How Australia’s Tony Abbott pulled off a great conservative victory
    33 Comments The Spectator 7 September 2013

    Roger Vincent • 8 months ago

    He’s not that good at keeping promises. He swore a vow of chastity. He squirmed out of his shotgun wedding.

    He stood up Bernie Banton, who had at some inconvenience come to his office to see him in the last week of his life. He agreed with his hero Howard that global warming was real then called it ‘crap’.

    He defended a convicted pederast, Nestor, in court, and got him out of prison, and begged a friend of pederasts, Hollingworth, not to resign. He concealed, according to his uncontradicted biographer, acts of homosexual rape by trainee priests at St Barnabus’s, his college.

    He gave up the priesthood because friends were making more money (he told Annabel on Wednesday). He was elected Leader by Peter Slipper’s lone vote, and went to his wedding. He ran from the chamber to refuse Craig Thomson’s vote, then later accepted it.

    He employed David Oldfield, then tried to destroy him. He framed Pauline Hanson and put her in gaol till she was proved innocent and let out. He did the same to her business partner David Ettridge. He alleged Cheryl Kernot was a pederast and ruined her.

    Some of his closest allies were homosexual – – but he won’t, if elected, let gays marry. He claims to love his sister but believes she will fry in hell for abominable practises punished by stoning in the Bible.

    The worst he did was to Kathy Donnelly. He used no contraception on her. When she was pregnant, he agreed to marry her. The church was booked, the guests invited. A week before his vows, he decided to call it off, and train instead for the priesthood. Scared to tell her, he asked his mother to make the call.

    Devastated, Kathy had the baby, a boy, and suckled him for five days. Then he was taken away by a Catholic agency and sent to Perth.

    Ruined, she then became pregnant again, had another baby, decided to keep this one, and raised him as an unwed mother. Abbott did not become a priest for another seven years, and after four years, during which he was ‘not as celibate as I should have been’, he gave it away.

    He married, had three daughters, pined for the son he had not kept. The boy turned up as a sound man around parliament house. Abbott embraced and acclaimed him. Kathy met him for the first time in twenty-six years. It then turned out he wasn’t Abbott’s son, but the by-blow of a one-night-stand. Kathy, disgraced, defended herself on national television. She soon grew ill, and began to die.

    Abbott did not visit her deathbed, or call her or write to her. He did not go to her funeral. At the Apology For Forced Adoption, however, he praised her as the ‘finest person I ever knew’.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-week/leading-article/9012731/the-right-man/

  21. And more evidence of the official spin on this move:

    Health Minister Peter Dutton has fuelled speculation the Government is poised to introduce a new payment for GP visits by indicating high income earners should not expect to see a doctor for free.

    Now of course this is so much bollocks along the same lines as when Newman trotted them out on Lateline. Dutton even uses the very same bogus logic “I’m earning a lot and I don’t think I should be able to see a GP for free”.

    But from a political point of view there’s an interesting implication here.

    Dutton and the government are clearly making the argument that there are high income earners who should pay and low income earners who should not.

    Where is that threshold?

    As far as I can tell the threshold is at the health care card level – ie basically anyone on pensions or pension level of income will be classified as “low income” and everyone else will be “high income earners” for the purposes of the rhetoric emerging from government.

    Remember when families on $150k were squealing about not being “rich” when the ALP were in government?

    This LNP government is now effectively declaring anyone earning over about 20k as being “high income earners” who “should not expect to see a doctor for free”.

  22. lizzie,
    [I wish I didn’t know that now.]

    Alarming isn’t it. But for some a buck is a buck regardless of the commodity in a market driven globalised economy.

    From the same article:
    [The planned uranium sale treaty doesn’t take into account local human rights issues, political changes or broader social upheavals in one of the world’s most volatile regions. It states that the agreement “shall remain in force for an initial period of thirty years and upon expiry of this initial period shall be renewed automatically for successive thirty year periods”. If this is advanced Australia would be locked in. As Greens Senator Scott Ludlam said, the Federal Government should “take a deep breath” and ask “do they really want to be selling ­uranium into the Middle East at the ­moment?”]

  23. Master Player One.

    You may have missed the opening quote.

    We know that you expect us to be as frugal and prudent with your money, which we hold on trust from you, as you would be with your own hard-earned savings.

    Tony Abbott, policy speech, August 25, 2013.

  24. victoria

    Why is it you cannot accept the point by bemused about this individual case? I have not seen bemused say all who commit domestic violence are mentally ill. You can correct me if I am wrong.

  25. crikey whitey@686


    We know that you expect us to be as frugal and prudent with your money, which we hold on trust from you, as you would be with your own hard-earned savings ….

    …. so we are going to take those away from you too!

  26. Bemused

    I admit military technology is not my field but I am quite skeptical of the capability claim to justify wasting $12 billion on the F35 or something similar. I think our involvement in these long R&D programs for defense hardware we do not build has far more to do with jobs for the boys in Canberra defense ranks. If there is a conflict, these are NOT the people who will be on our front line.

    Fran is right about the timeline. This thing has been going on for so long that by the time it is fully operational a different generation of defense crews will be running it. In fact other Nato Allies opted to stay out of the F35 development program because of financial and time risks. They are now still being eagerly pursued as customers by the US anyway – they want the sales. Some that did sign up for development – Netherlands and Italy – have halted going ahead with the full purchase.

    I see no point in signing up to very expensive weapon development programs that so impoverish the defense budget there is no money left to fund uniformed personnel or operations and training. The latter is what gives you capability.

  27. “@ABCNews24: Coming up: The Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey will make a speech on tackling deficit ahead of next month’s budget #auspol #2014budget”

  28. Victoria

    [Speaking of ghosts, I had a really weird experience a few weeks ago. I still cannot explain it.]

    My mother died at 11.50pm and the power blew out.
    My brother went to check the power box,all OK, came running back inside with all his hair on end and said he shone his torch and glimpsed mum going down the stairs.

    We rang the community health nurse who lives a few hundred metres down the road and told her mum had passed. She came down straight away. She told us the power was on at her place and along the road. She went on to tell me she had seen this before when people died. She called it magnetic electricity???

    We did what we had to with camp lanterns.

    Dad offered the nurse a coffee and said we’d use the BBQ and all of a sudden the power came on. I cannot explain the force of which it went out or the strength of return.

    Perhaps we experienced a group hallucination.

    Regardless, dad and I felt comforted.

  29. From Twitter

    It will be a great day when our schools get all the funding they need and the Air force holds a cake stall to buy a new plane

  30. victoria@663

    mtbw

    rosie batty actually said that today. It is not meant to be charming or otherwise. She is just stating the obvious

    And what she said about some disgusting people, you have aimed at MTBW. You grub. 😡

  31. guytaur@687

    victoria

    Why is it you cannot accept the point by bemused about this individual case? I have not seen bemused say all who commit domestic violence are mentally ill. You can correct me if I am wrong.

    Bemused has acknowledged that the perpetrator in this case was not examined by a psychiatrist … which is required to make a legal judgment of whether a person is mentally ill and could therefore claim they were not responsible for their actions.

    You can speculate that he was mentally ill all you like – it is more likely that what his wife said was in fact correct – i.e. that he did it out of simple spite and a desire for revenge.

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