Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

Morgan becomes a third pollster to show Greens support at its highest for at least the current term, but otherwise shows little change on a fortnight ago.

Morgan has released its regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll covering 2955 respondents over the past two weekends. On the primary vote, Labor is down half a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 38.5%, Palmer United steady on 5% and the Greens up a point to 13% – which, while well short of Nielsen, makes it a third pollster showing the Greens vote at its highest for at least this term, or in this case since July 2012. Labor leads 52-48 on both measures of two-party preferred, compared with 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated and 52-48 on previous-election preferences last time. Essential Research will be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Essential is with us sooner than I thought, the report having been published on their website. This shows the Coalition down a point to 41%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens at their highest for the current term with a gain of one point to 11%, and Palmer United also up one to 5%. Labor has recovered the 51-49 lead on two-party preferred it had lost with last week’s shift to 50-50. Also featured are “most important election issues”, showing economic management and health policy have gained in salience since before the election while “political leadership” has declined; a finding that 61% oppose funding cuts to the ABC, with 21% supportive; 45% expecting the government’s motivation to reduce ABC funding would be overall spending reduction rather its dislike of ABC news coverage (45% to 28%); 71% disapproving of raising the pension age with 20% supportive; 58% favouring 65 as the pension age; 64% disapproving of including the value of the family home in asset testing for pension eligibility, with 26% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. victoria@423

    Bemused

    You may have missed what Luke Batty’s mother has been saying recently. She said that her former partner was violent and when she finally left and he could no longer control her. He took his revenge by killing her son in front of her. She said nothing about mental illness. She says she was a victim of domestic violence.

    It was well reported at the time that he was mentally ill and was not receiving treatment.

    Most mentally ill people are not dangerous, but some, with a serious psychosis, are extremely dangerous if left untreated.

    In talking about the violence, Rosie, for whom I have the highest regard, was pointing to the symptoms, not the underlying cause.

  2. victoria

    the present Victorian ALP has the most stringent branch stacking laws in its entire history. Indeed, some of the complaints here about the difficulty joining branches are due to the processes which have been put in place to prevent branch stacking.

    There are a couple of State delegates who have made a career about whinging to the media about branch stacking. Interestingly enough, the present rules were put in place at their instigation — and they’re still not happy.

    It’s a bit like the Greens and certain issues – it doesn’t matter how far you go to cater to their particular concern, it will never be good enough, because their whole reason for being depends on there being a problem.

  3. CTaR1

    That fits. There is a pattern of Vietnam Vets returning and hanging in desperately for a decade or two before their psychological wounds overwhelm them.

    Their decades of desperate struggle, along with those of their families and friends, deserve far better from the MSM than ‘ghost’ story bullshit.

  4. “@AustralianLabor: “Why is it that the best off say the answer to Australia’s problems is to slug the poor with a new tax?” @billshortenmp on ABC24 #auspol”

  5. victoria@424

    Oh and I should add, that Luke Batty’s father planned his kill to the last detail.

    I find it offensive that mental illness is being used as an excuse for this evil act

    Pull your head in, you obviously have no idea of what you are talking about.

    Mental illness does not equate with stupidity and mentally ill people can be very cunning and can carry out plans. But they are driven by their illness to do so.

  6. Morrison did an interview on Sky this morning. He bullied the hapless reporter with his usual blend of aggressive arrogance, lack of accountability, and lack of transparency.

    He is determined to get to the bottom of what happened on Manus. He really is, even though he already knows the answer: Labor bad, Coalition good.

  7. i think Rosie handled the matter with wisdom and strength – she is a very impressive lady. the general community understanding of mental illness is terribly ignorant

  8. WWP

    [Re ALP branches they must have a where you live test. you should be a member of your single state seat branch and vote in your federal electorate regardless of this splitting branches. ]

    Which is the case in Victoria at present.

    About ten years ago, the old ‘RMB’ (rural mailbox addresses) were eliminated and replaced with street addresses. It took a long time for the AEC to work through and make the necessary changes, but in the meantime perhaps half a dozen members in my area lost their internal party voting rights because their street address didn’t match the street address the AEC was using.

    My present branch has been split in half by the recent Victorian redistribution, with half living in one State electorate and half in another.

  9. “@ABCNews24: .@BillShortenMP: I want to see that the Labor Party is the political arm of no one but the Australian people #auspol”

  10. fredex

    [My understanding of the Victorian situation is that the ‘epidemic blowout’ has been at least partly exacerbated by, perhaps to some paradoxically, improved policing and legal procedures.]

    Certainly what the local police tell me – that they’re not seeing more domestic violence, but they’re being required to report every time they’re called out.

    Which is a good thing, of course.

  11. sounds good zoom – now they just need to make the branch relevant. here in wa you can stack your people whereever you want but then they still get to vote ‘at home’ if there is a members ballot

    all the ‘antistacking’ measures in wa have been antimember measures to increase union dominance – it us a disgrace

  12. WWP

    WA Labor does seem to have some very strange rules — it surprises me that the State Sec, as a Victorian (and an old mate of mine) hasn’t altered them.

    Every now and again PvO has a go at Labor preselection processes, and it’s obvious he thinks the WA rules are the same as other state branches. It’s a strange mistake for a political commentator to make – I have pointed it out to him, but he persists.

  13. Bushfire Bill@444

    ABC-24 is hopeless.

    ABC-24 is a blight on our National Broadcaster, and is the main reason I now refer to them as our “National Rebroadcaster” It is trash TV, on a par with Sky and Fox.

    All it does is suck money out of the ABC, for no benefit at all. If people really want to watch such rubbish, there are many other stations broadcasting exactly the same thing. In fact most of them do a better job, not being constantly plagued by “technical difficulties”.

    It is the part of the ABC that most urgently needs to be dumped – cut loose, sold off or simply scrapped – whatever it takes to restore some credibility to the ABC.

  14. WeWantPaul@465

    sounds good zoom – now they just need to make the branch relevant. here in wa you can stack your people whereever you want but then they still get to vote ‘at home’ if there is a members ballot

    all the ‘antistacking’ measures in wa have been antimember measures to increase union dominance – it us a disgrace

    Anti-stacking measures are a problem and zoomster was a little unkind in an earlier post.

    As I understand it, the current grievance is about failure to enforce the rules as they exist.

    Residential requirements are a must to prevent people being moved around. They do have their problems but we have to live with those. To illustrate the point, I live near a Federal Electorate boundary which has changed a couple of times in recent years, causing me to swap branches and then swap back again. My current branch has members from 3 state electorates.

    Victorian rules require you belong to a branch in the Federal Electorate in which you reside.

  15. WWP _You’re an unsensitive dickhead.

    [To this I only have one providable word – Unnecessary.
    447
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 11:43 am | Permalink

    ABC-24 is hopeless

    the -24 is unnecessary.]

  16. [It is the part of the ABC that most urgently needs to be dumped – cut loose, sold off or simply scrapped – whatever it takes to restore some credibility to the ABC.]

    They’re running around like chooks with their heads cut off. They’re so busy cutting to the next “BREAKING” story, that no story gets covered fully and comprehensively. The viewer ends up with lots of snippets and half-baked interviews and really no idea of what’s going on, or worse, a distorted idea.

    I mean, crossing to Abbott opening a fun run for one of his mates? How the bloody hell is that “news”. You could sort-of half understand it during a campaign, but never on a normal news day.

    And I understand that the Royals are appreciated by some, but for Christ’s sake, do we have to abandon a formal news coverage item to gawp at them cutting ribbons, or pretending to be interested in some indigenous guy banging two sticks together (for the three-hundreth time)?

    Along with the inane – “They have won hearts everywhere” – claptrap commentary it’s just not at all impressive or informative. Who GIVES a f**k?

    Is it because Professor Flint will ring Tony and complain? And the ABC will then lose another million bucks in funding? OR that Abbott’s PR people will heavy ABC-24 for not covering the opening of an envelope, or anything else the idiot says?

  17. bemused

    Luke batty’s mum said fhat her ex partner deliberately and methodically killed her son as revenge for her leaving him, and no longer having control over her. As i said, mental illness was not the cause of his actions

  18. BB

    This is why I noted yesterday that 24 stayed with Shorten’s speech and interviewed Dr Emerson about it and did not cross to the Royals until after that.

    I appreciated it because it went against everything they have been doing lately and was better coverage than Sky did apparently from posts I saw.

  19. WWP

    [i think Rosie handled the matter with wisdom and strength – she is a very impressive lady. the general community understanding of mental illness is terribly ignorant]

    You are spot on!

    Poor hapless souls who wander the streets because they cannot settle with their demons in one place.

    Vic you need to thank God every day that you are not in that category.

    There but for the grace of God go I!

  20. [ Boerwar

    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    CTaR1

    That fits. There is a pattern of Vietnam Vets returning and hanging in desperately for a decade or two before their psychological wounds overwhelm them.

    Their decades of desperate struggle, along with those of their families and friends, deserve far better from the MSM than ‘ghost’ story bullshit.
    ]

    ————————————————

    An excellent Four Corners on Monday with American Vets talking about their D-Day experiences – particularly Omaha Beach, which was a wholesale massacre. Even 70 years later it was obvious that what happened THAT day still affected them deeply – all said it was something that have never got over ….

  21. “@joeobrien24: PM @TonyAbbottMHR media conf due to begin at any moment .. watch live on @abcnews24 .. Joint Strike Fighter announcement”

  22. victoria@473

    bemused

    Luke batty’s mum said fhat her ex partner deliberately and methodically killed her son as revenge for her leaving him, and no longer having control over her. As i said, mental illness was not the cause of his actions

    Well since he is dead, we will never know for sure.

    But it is on the public record that he was suffering from a mental illness and, judging by other facts that have emerged about his lifestyle, it was nothing trivial.

    Seriously mentally ill people are usually more a danger to themselves than others, but occasionally they do kill others, and usually people close to them.

    The only answer is identification of the seriously mentally ill and treatment of them. Compulsorily if necessary. But the civil libertarians oppose this and politicians are not keen due to the cost.

  23. victoria@473

    bemused

    Luke batty’s mum said fhat her ex partner deliberately and methodically killed her son as revenge for her leaving him, and no longer having control over her. As i said, mental illness was not the cause of his actions

    Well since he is dead, we will never know for sure.

    But it is on the public record that he was suffering from a mental illness and, judging by other facts that have emerged about his lifestyle, it was nothing trivial.

    Seriously mentally ill people are usually more a danger to themselves than others, but occasionally they do kill others, and usually people close to them.

    The only answer is identification of the seriously mentally ill and treatment of them. Compulsorily if necessary. But the civil libertarians oppose this and politicians are not keen due to the cost.

  24. bemused

    This is only partly directed at you, or, in other words its not personal at you but from me.

    Have a read:

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/revengeful-fathers-kill-children-to-punish-mum-20140422-372ee.html

    And note these:
    -Dr Buchanan {f the Victorian Counselling and Psychological Services} said men who killed their children often blamed the mother for feelings of powerlessness …
    – Domestic Violence Resource Centre senior researcher Deborah Kirkwood said fathers who killed their children ”feel entitled to take their lives because they’re his possessions … It’s about making the mother suffer.”

    DV, and mutually allied CSA, are epidemic in our society, well all male dominated societies, they are part of a set of attitudes where males can tell women what they are, how to behave, what they cannot or should do with their own bodies and lives and dress and behaviour and so on.

    Its fundamental to this society [ignoring others] – its the slightly more extreme part of the sexism and misogyny spectrum, it manifests itself in hundreds of ways and is part of the fabric of womens’ lives here on a daily basis.
    Its reflected in and part of Royal Commissions into abuse in male dominated authoritarian institutions including churches [RC and Salvo currently] govts [eg SA child care not long ago], its pervasive to our politics eg Gillard, Howard diverting money from DV et al resources to fund killing people in Iraq, our lack of concern about the abuse of ‘others’ eg asylum seekers, the decade long, currently being strengthened push to give social services to religious groups whose dogma is anti-women who often, far too often, have an doctrinal blind spot and failing to recognise abuse of women when its in front of them or, worse, whitewashing it when it is recognised, a process that is occurring in dozens of offices around Australia today ….. its part of the fabric of our society.

    .

  25. [ victoria

    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Speaking of ghosts, I had a really weird experience a few weeks ago. I still cannot explain it.
    ]

    ———————————————-

    Victoria – not quite a ghost – but I lived in very hilly Gormandale for a spell and one day out for a walk I rounded a bend – and this very, very large black cat like thing walked across the road ahead and into the bushes …..I ran to the spot but it was gone….. like you, I cant explain what I saw but locals said big black lion like cats had been sighted by others around there ….

  26. i dont understand your vulgar and abusive post CTar1 – i’m noy sure if you are agreeing with me and it is rodney rude type humor, whether somehow i’ve caused offense, whether you are off your meds or have already dipped into the stash today

  27. WWP

    While it is CTaR1’s business, a couple of posts earlier he had outline what happened to two of his uncles: one killed and the other psychologically damaged badly.
    CTaR1 summed it up as ‘unnecessary’.

    A couple of posts later you use the same term in a different context.

    I assume that this is what CTaR1 found to be unsensitive.

  28. badcat:

    [An excellent Four Corners on Monday with American Vets talking about their D-Day experiences – particularly Omaha Beach, which was a wholesale massacre]

    Yep, a brilliant – and very moving – feature. I’m still thinking about it.

  29. fredex@481

    bemused

    This is only partly directed at you, or, in other words its not personal at you but from me.

    Have a read:

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/revengeful-fathers-kill-children-to-punish-mum-20140422-372ee.html

    And note these:
    -Dr Buchanan {f the Victorian Counselling and Psychological Services} said men who killed their children often blamed the mother for feelings of powerlessness …
    – Domestic Violence Resource Centre senior researcher Deborah Kirkwood said fathers who killed their children ”feel entitled to take their lives because they’re his possessions … It’s about making the mother suffer.”

    DV, and mutually allied CSA, are epidemic in our society, well all male dominated societies, they are part of a set of attitudes where males can tell women what they are, how to behave, what they cannot or should do with their own bodies and lives and dress and behaviour and so on.

    Its fundamental to this society [ignoring others] – its the slightly more extreme part of the sexism and misogyny spectrum, it manifests itself in hundreds of ways and is part of the fabric of womens’ lives here on a daily basis.
    Its reflected in and part of Royal Commissions into abuse in male dominated authoritarian institutions including churches [RC and Salvo currently] govts [eg SA child care not long ago], its pervasive to our politics eg Gillard, Howard diverting money from DV et al resources to fund killing people in Iraq, our lack of concern about the abuse of ‘others’ eg asylum seekers, the decade long, currently being strengthened push to give social services to religious groups whose dogma is anti-women who often, far too often, have an doctrinal blind spot and failing to recognise abuse of women when its in front of them or, worse, whitewashing it when it is recognised, a process that is occurring in dozens of offices around Australia today ….. its part of the fabric of our society.

    .

    Yes, and I don’t take any of that personally.

    I have said before that such things are beyond my comprehension. But in at least some cases they are explicable by an underlying mental illness.

    Luke Batty’s father obviously intended to die along with his son. We know he was mentally ill and probably seriously so.

    Was he driven by delusions that he only way he could be with his son was for them both to die? Possibly. We have no way of knowing. But in other cases we do know people were driven by such delusions.

    Drugs, particularly ice are another possible cause of such incidents of extreme violence.

    I have no sympathy for any person engaging in domestic violence and believe they should face the full force of the criminal law. But what then?

  30. So, with all the angst about the JSF purchase, what do people think they should have bought?

    Been following the JSF program for a while now and i suspect that for Australia they will turn out to be a better deal than F22 would have. The sustainment on F22 seems to be the killer and while the US can afford it, virtually no-one else can.

    So we end up with 70 JSF (which if they actually do get CUDA missiles installed down the track will be quite capable AtoA), and 24 Super Bugs. If the Super Bugs get the kind of upgrades Boeing have in prototype now they will be very capable for a number of years.

    Lots of negative stuff around about JSF, but i wouldn’t be taking it all at face value.

    $208 mill each for the full program cost actually doesnt sound like a bad price to me?

  31. My view is that the JSF decision is a premature ejaculation.

    Australia has two significant decisions to make: fighters and subs.

    The first of these pre-empts their own White Paper.

  32. [ kakuru

    Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

    badcat:

    An excellent Four Corners on Monday with American Vets talking about their D-Day experiences – particularly Omaha Beach, which was a wholesale massacre

    Yep, a brilliant – and very moving – feature. I’m still thinking about it.
    ]

    ———————————————–

    I read an excellent – if heart rending book – called “The Bedford Boys” about a small US town whose local unit soldiers were in the first wave of soldiers on Omaha beach .

    The war hit Bedford harder than perhaps any other small town in America, taking 19 of its sons, fathers and brothers in the opening moments of the Allied invasion of Normandy. Within a week, 23 of Bedford’s 35 soldiers were dead. It was the highest per capita loss for any U.S. community.

    Recommended reading …….

  33. [whether somehow i’ve caused offense, whether you are off your meds or have already dipped into the stash today]

    You’re full of it. The last ‘med’ taken or required was a Panadol around 2 weeks ago.

    Why don’t you go off and cheer for Ruddy as Secretary- General – No F&cken’ Chance, I’m advised.

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