Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.
The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.
Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.
New South Wales premier Mike Baird says in hindsight it was a mistake to appoint lobbyist Nick Di Girolamo to a state-owned corporation three years ago
That’s easy to say once you’ve caught out….
Zoomster #1280 and #1286
You have come up in my estimation after these 2 comments. 🙂
As to Fran “never ever lying” she must have had an extremely open relationship with her parents as an adolescent, being prepared to acknowledge all her social “experiments” to them as she reached out into the adult world.
Similarly as an adult she apparently has never been put into a position where someone inappropriately enquired into her private life, or into a position where it was in her own self protective interests to lie.
I’m sure I can pose a few questions to her whereby she will certainly lie in response, or at least not give a full honest answer.
Used appropriately as social beings, lying is an important social skill, and essential to good mental health.
Abbott has lied so much it’s difficult to keep up.
-ABC lie
-pensions lie
-health budget lie
-education budget lie
AA
Yet another Liberal got caught.
Yet another Liberal ‘mistake’…
Lots of wishful thinking from Ellis. As usual.
But I’d settle for the damage to spread further to the federal tories.
Labor, get party reform sorted out and kick the stuffing out of the tories as the gory details are trotted out in public –
[ Hockey and Abbott may not have long as MPs if, as is likely, Di Girolamo gave money to their campaigns, money stolen, that is, from the New South Wales taxpayer. The vultures are circling, the jackals detect the smell of blood on the wind, and the Liberal Party itself may not survive the year.
For the Liberal Party is the Lobbyists’ Party, it has no other moral purpose any more. It is there to give contracts to mates who build the airport, and the roads to and from it, and positions to crooks like Di Girolamo who kick back money to it.
….All self-righteousness has gone from the Liberals’ armoury now and it was the biggest weapon they had.]
Tainted votes as far as the eye can see.
AussieAchmed@1303
Deliberate tactic IMO.
The sandgropers had WA Inc.
With Australian Water Holdings, it’s more like NSW Sink.
Poroti
Thanks for the further arm grabbing info.
Clearly it is a tool of jerks to assert themselves.
Speaking of jerks, I heard new Premier Baird being questioned about whether as a fellow Manly-ite he like Abbott wears budgie smugglers. He avowed that he would continue with board shorts.
This raised the question for me as to why a 50+ year old would wear budgies and proudly display his wearing of them.
I can conceive of quite a few reasons all pointing to an insecure, delusional or narcissistic personality that might lead him to happily display himself. I cannot think of any other PM, Premier, or national leader of any organisation who is as keen as Abbott is to display his equipment ……. not even Don Dunstan.
Typical of a jerk.
….as for fran’s willingness to use a student’s disadvantage to her benefit, knowing that doing so would further isolate him from his peers, that behaviour is so contemptible that I almost can’t conceive of any adult indulging in it.
It’s the kind of mindset which sees people gleefully turning friends and family into the Thought Police. For their own good, mind you.
On arm grabbing: one of the phenomena which I noted very early in my political career was how becoming a candidate seemed to do away with certain boundaries for people.
One of these is touching.
When I’m not a candidate, people behave normally towards me when it comes to this. As soon as I become one, it becomes a matter of course that people will start grabbing me by the sleeve, slapping me on the back, etc — often complete strangers, often with no other form of contact.
It’s as if assuming a public position turns off certain rules about personal space.
[When I’m not a candidate, people behave normally towards me when it comes to this. As soon as I become one, it becomes a matter of course that people will start grabbing me by the sleeve, slapping me on the back, etc — often complete strangers, often with no other form of contact.]
I saw this with a local state MP here when we flew up to Perth last week. At the airport women kissed and hugged him, men came from everywhere to shake his hand and backslap him.
I’ve never seen anything like it when it comes to an ordinary person.
Tony Abbott denies meeting Australian Water Holdings chief executive Nick Di Girolamo –
Well, not exactly. Abbott says he has never had any ‘formal’ meetings with Nick, but might have met him at the odd party, but he really wouldn’t remember, because he meets so many people and there can be lots at those functions and blah blah blah…
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-denies-meeting-australian-water-holdings-chief-executive-nick-di-girolamo-20140417-zqvyf.html
But…But…. it was only a few months ago that Abbott and Brandis and a horde of other government identities were telling us that claiming expenses for attending weddings and parties and football games was legitimate because they did business at those sort of events.
Now Abbott would have us believe he doesn’t remember who he meets at functions because they are not ‘formal’ business meetings.
You can’t have it both ways chaps.
On a cheerful note. Being here can be helping your mental health. U would not be surprised to find similar results in other age groups.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2607790/UUsing-internet-lower-depression-rate-elderly-30-cent.html
On a similar note
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/its-the-burbs-against-the-bush-in-life-expectancy-stakes-20140418-36wbe.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq
Note the lower the income the less the life expectancy
Afternoon all. Guytaur I am not surprised at that finding on mental health and internet use. Where it is a blog or forum that involves interaction with people with similar interests, I think that is definitely uplifting. Election night coverage of conservative defeats also helps 🙂
That being said, I am pleasantly surprised to read Joe Hockey is considering attacking the housing market killer and tax revenue cancer that is negative gearing. It will take years to eliminate this distortion but a start is needed. Cap it at the average house price in each capital city please Joe.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-16/extended-interview-with-saul-eslake-and-harley-dale/5396076
I am a little surprised that the Liberals would face up to this one. Reform is badly needed, but many shonky real estate and loan salesmen will complain.
[Abbott says he has never had any ‘formal’ meetings with Nick, but might have met him at the odd party]
Yes leone, with Abbott you must always search out the qualifier in his words.
Achmed
[New South Wales premier Mike Baird says in hindsight it was a mistake to appoint lobbyist Nick Di Girolamo to a state-owned corporation three years ago]
I don’t suppose Baird has given any thought to taking action to stop such appointments? Otherwise it is fairly certain we will be having this debate again in three years time.
confessions, I’ve become fascinated by the animated wind map you posted here a couple of weeks ago (also as below). In particular, I’ve been watching the breakdown of the trade winds in the Pacific. These have been displaced by intrusions of westerly flows, starting from the very far west of the Pacific and now reaching to about 175E. The trade winds in both hemispheres have more or less collapsed in the western Pacific and have both shifted and weakened in the eastern Pacific.
The inter-related disruption of easterly trade winds and the onset of westerly air-flows is said to be critical in the development of El Nino events. These developments are becoming more becoming more extensive and complex on almost a daily basis. Observers say this process is important in the transfer of warm water from the West Pacific to the East and the displacement of cool waters with warm water in the tropical subsurface water column in the Eastern Pacific. The rise in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific is the defining characteristic of an El Nino event.
We will soon get a new El Nino forecast from the climate agencies here and in North America on the likelihood of an El Nino event this year. At the time of the most recent forecast (8 April) the westerly flows that had occurred in February and March had abated and while the Sea Surface Temp anomaly had increased, it had not reached the threshold for El Nino. It will be very interesting to see if the resurgence of westerly winds has lifted the SST anomaly in the Central and Eastern Pacific or not.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-184.97,3.30,413
[Abbott says he has never had any ‘formal’ meetings with Nick, but might have met him at the odd party]
The dark lord taught his young apprentice well.
I’m not familiar with the Jesuits except from the term “jesuitical”, but wasn’t Tony Abbott schooled by them? Or did he just have lots of practice in avoiding penances after confession?
*( often lowercase ) practicing casuistry or equivocation; using subtle or oversubtle reasoning; crafty; sly; intriguing.
briefly:
I know, I can’t stop looking at it either. It’s the first thing I go to when I turn the computer on in the mornings. I find it fascinating.
I thought I read somewhere the other day that we were forecast to have an El Nino year.
@7NewsBrisbane: Protesters at South Bank are waving indigenous flags and signs. #7Royal
Wow Newman has done well first protest of the Royal Tour
[1322
confessions
briefly:
I know, I can’t stop looking at it either. It’s the first thing I go to when I turn the computer on in the mornings. I find it fascinating.
I thought I read somewhere the other day that we were forecast to have an El Nino year.]
The most recent BOM statement assigned a 70% probability to an El Nino. If one eventuates, it will have to develop in the period through to the end of May. So we are watching the evolution of the future, up-dated every 3 hours. It’s remarkable.
The BOM has some really good material on El Nino, starting here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino.shtml
[1316….Socrates]
Negative gearing is a scam by which 85% of taxpayers finance the property speculation of the remaining 15%. NG does nothing to add to housing supply and distorts housing prices to the detriment of all those buyers who cannot claim interest expenses as a tax deduction.
It should be abolished, not merely capped. It’s bad policy and should be scrapped.
lizzie@1299
Good article. Quentin Dempster is one of the few people left at the ABC worth listening to.
But the reality is that the ABC only have themselves to blame. To bastardize the famous speech by Martin Niemöller:
[ First they came for the ALP, and the ABC did not speak out — Because they were not a member of the ALP.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and the ABC did not speak out — Because they were not a member of a Trade Union.
Then they came for the Journalists, and the ABC did not speak out — Because they had no interest in Journalism any more.
Then they came for the ABC — and there was no one left to speak for them. ]
In defence of Fran
From what Fran has divulged of her personal journey through life, she became aware at a very young age of the artifice of adults.
And, it seems to me, she set herself a strict code of conduct to countervail what she saw as reprehensible behaviour in almost everyone with whom she came into contact.
And, it also seems to me, she learned the art of compromise without compromising her fundamental code.
Her membership of the Greens is testament to that compromise.
Sure, I don’t agree with some things Fran has to say, but it doesn’t mean that I think she’s lying about anything.
I would have loved a teacher like Fran, who didn’t compromise her standards, but who took the time to explain to me what is was about my own behaviour that was holding me back from reaching my potential.
Therefore, Fran using the inability of a autistic child to lie to discover the order of a chain of events – to no detrimental effect on the child, in fact she stated that it didn’t isolate him from his peers – is not taking benefit from disadvantage.
Knowing Fran’s propensity to be long-winded on any topic – according to some on here, I prefer to see it as covering all the nuanced bases as much as possible – then I can’t imagine Fran, after having discovered whatever was at the heart of the problem, not then explaining to the kid/s involved the consequences of their actions.
And not just the consequences of their actions in terms of school rules, but the personal consequences of their actions.
Fran is a teacher who commands respect and she follows through. I had one (one only) teacher like her in primary school. A teacher who respected all of us, as people, not kids who could be bullied by an adult whenever they pleased, but who fundamentally wanted all of us to be the best we could possibly be.
Because she (that one primary teacher) led by example, held no fear or favour, and expected the same in return, she held us in the palm of her hand. She was only bright light in an otherwise tortured childhood. She showed that it was okay to be honest, truthful, compassionate and caring. And overall that we could trust her.
I see Fran like that. And I reckon the kids she teaches are very lucky to have her in their life.
psyclaw
[Used appropriately as social beings, lying is an important social skill, and essential to good mental health.]
Really? How?
And, for that matter, what are these mysterious questions that people will lie about, every time? What are they?
Socrates and briefly
I will be very surprised if hockey more than tinkers at the edges with tax lurks for property investment
The real estate spivs and shysters and their clients would be up in arms. They still talk about when Keating abolished negative gearing. And lie about the impact it had.
My view is that investors should have a choice. Either they claim a deduction for the cost of borrowing for the investment or they get the 50 pet cent CGT benefit when they sell. One or the other.
The CGT concession was not one of costello’s better ideas, and he had a few dud ones
Social lying: the unspoken agreement is I’ll accept your story / persona and I accept yours.
Briefly 1326
I completely agree on negstive gearing. The only problem is that the practice has grown to be such a large percentage of the housing market that an instant cancellation would crash the market and leave many with negative equity, possibly causing a recession. But there are ways to phase it out wothout wrecking things in the short term and capping is one. I am open to other suggestions.
[Steve777
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 1:30 pm | PERMALINK
Social lying: the unspoken agreement is I’ll accept your story / persona and I accept yours.]
But how is that essential to good mental health?
It’s a contradiction in terms.
Are you saying we all know we’re lying about the facade we present to the world so that’s acceptable except when we have to reconcile about who we can trust, when we can’t trust ourselves?
It’s a bullshit contract, isn’t it.
Rossmcg
I agree real reform of negative gearing would be surprising. Labor under Rudd and Gillard was too captured by the property spivs to do it. I had assumed Hockey would be too. However to my surprise Hockey has flagged this before. So he would be breaking a promise if he did not do it.
http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9884736/1/
kezza
[Therefore, Fran using the inability of a autistic child to lie to discover the order of a chain of events – to no detrimental effect on the child, in fact she stated that it didn’t isolate him from his peers – is not taking benefit from disadvantage.]
That’s incredibly naive.
Of course she is benefitting from his disadvantage. Instead of trying to work out for herself what had happened, she took a shortcut, exploiting the child’s disadvantage to save herself work.
And of course it would isolate him from his peers. Are you seriously asserting that – just because the rest of the class accepted that what he said was truthful, and nodded earnestly when fran said he shouldn’t be blamed – that they didn’t resent him for it?
If so, you have an incredibly naive view of human nature, and in particular, child nature.
As for showing that its OK to be compassionate and caring, I don’t see fran modelling that at all. Compassion involves understanding – the kind of understanding that doesn’t put children in awkward situations to begin with, and the kind of understanding that doesn’t brand a child because they told a lie to get out of trouble.
If anything, over the past couple of days, fran has shown herself remarkably unsympathetic towards normal human failings.
Lizzie 1321
Yes Abbott was schooled by the jesuits in Sydney, as was Pyne in Adelaide. Even when I was a practising catholic, I found the jesuit order a contradiction. OTOH they were very intellectual, committed to education, and analytical. Conversely, they were also expert at using convoluted logic to justify obscure theology.
I think this quote sums them up:
[Rule 13 of Ignatius’s Rules for Thinking with the Church said: “That we may be altogether of the same mind and in conformity … if [the Church] shall have defined anything to be black which to our eyes appears to be white, we ought in like manner to pronounce it to be black.”]
And this
[Because of the military background of Ignatius and the members’ willingness to accept orders anywhere in the world and to live in extreme conditions where required, the opening lines of this founding document would declare that the Society of Jesus was founded for “whoever desires to serve as a soldier of God”]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_of_Jesus
So they are dogmatic and argumentative. Remind you of anyone?
[1332
Socrates
Briefly 1326
I completely agree on negstive gearing. The only problem is that the practice has grown to be such a large percentage of the housing market that an instant cancellation would crash the market..]
It’s true that the Sydney market at the the moment is dominated by investor demand, though other markets are much less subject to this influence. Property markets are being supported by very low interest rates; and conversely, when real interest rates rise again (as they must) then property will weaken.
If there is a good time to abandon NG, surely it is when the markets are otherwise well-supported. Abolition of NG, in itself, is not going to change the value equations in property. Real property prices ALWAYS move inversely over time with real interest rates. As long as rates remain low, property will hold up.
In fact, the only strong argument in favour of increasing interest rates at the moment is the fear of a bubble in Sydney property. An increase in rates would certainly quell demand for real estate everywhere, including in Sydney. But such a rise would also be very harmful to the economy in other ways. If Sydney property prices stopped rising, interest rates could certainly be kept on hold for longer, to the undoubted benefit of the wider economy.
Restraining speculative demand for Sydney property by cancelling NG would be one way of supporting the economic adjustment that we have to have.
1332
Socrates
Of course, if real housing costs could be reduced over time, this would have a very positive effect on economic growth. Households could spend less on housing and have more of their incomes available for saving (and, axiomatically, investment) and to spend on other goods and services.
Actually my 1331 should have read:
“Social lying: the unspoken agreement is I’ll accept your story / persona and you accept mine”.
zoomster
I knew you would disagree with me, and my defence of Fran, feeble though it is.
I’m not naive at all.
Sure, I agree with you that Fran took a shortcut – but I disagree that she exploited the child. In fact, I’m sure that Fran would have gone to great lengths to make sure that before using his innate honesty the child would not suffer any further than he already had.
I may not be a teacher, but my sister is. And I’ve been in and round enough staff rooms to listen to the rank dishonesty of teachers regarding children.
It quite frankly disgusted me to hear the way teachers patronise and make fun of kids in their care, out of their earshot, of course. What dishonesty. As if it was par for the course to use adulthood as a measure of superiority.
I’ve raised two kids. Two boys. I’ve always been honest with them. Brutally so, at times. I haven’t lied to them about anything. I may even be guilty of giving too much information at times for their tender years. In return, they know they can trust me.
I grew up in a family of Catholic liars. Where our parents lied to us and we lied straight back at ’em. The difference was the power structure. Our parents lied with impunity, we were punished, physically, by the dictum “spare the rod and spoil the child.”
I think you misunderstand where Fran comes from. Fran would take the time, as she does here, to explain in great detail why she thinks a certain way, why it matters, and how it affects the kids in her care. I doubt very much she would leave an autistic child to his or her own devices to struggle against the shit that kids give each other.
And I’m pretty sure she understands why kids lie to get out of trouble.
If anything, Fran has shown over the past couple of days that she is remarkably sympathetic towards normal human failings – and that she tries her best to provide an antidote in a world of deceit. Where even the PM of our country lies at every turn and you can’t trust a word he says.
The fish rots from the head down. And Fran is trying to stop that wherever she can. I applaud her.
It doesn’t mean I don’t applaud you. I think you are a remarkable person as well. You’re probably one of the more decent teachers about. I think you argue brilliantly, and I can’t even make a dent in your philosophy – even when I think I’m right. You have rhetoric down to a fine art. Well done politician.
But, I think you’re being a bit too defensive of your own lying to kids.
Negative gearing could be limited to a max number of properties, 2-3.
That would keep the “mum and dad” investors in the market
[Negative gearing could be limited to a max number of properties, 2-3.
That would keep the “mum and dad” investors in the market]
1 should be more than enough.
AA
Negative gearing needs to be limited to more than just a number of properties. Even then, I would suggest a limit of 1, not 2 or 3. It is axiomatic that the more properties there are negative geared, the more people are renting not owning their own home, unless we end up with a lot of empty houses.
I think a limit on the maximum value of properties that may be negative geared is essential. Without it house price inflation continues to be fed. People being financially rewarded for owning million dollar properties does nothing to help provide homes for the poor. We should set a per property limit of no more than the average house price in each city. Above that you should not get a deduction. Then the limit should be fixed in absolute not real dollars, i.e. Not indexed. Finally NG should only apply to new houses, not turnover of existing stock. That way over time inflation will make NG less attractive, and take price pressure out of the housing market.
To those who say they are retirees reliant on NG income I say, invest in something else. Unless you are buying a new property your investment is not creating jobs or more housing. You are just getting an income thanks to a tax break that should not exist. Invest in something that builds the nation, not turns a generation into people of no fixed abode.
briefly:
A 70% chance? That’s a pretty strong indication.
On the wind site, I’m going to really enjoy it when winter comes, watching those cold fronts develop and intensify. 🙂
Back in days before there was superannuation guarantee it was one of the few ways that the baby boomers could look at making some money for retirement.
Limit the number of properties to one, and be prepared to have them drawing a pension.
GENY/X all whine about the baby boomers being a burden on them, yet want to limit the financial independence that would could with a couple of investment properties.
(I find it all a bit incongorous the same GENY/X whinging about boomers being a burden would still parents/grandparents who are boomers)
A Us Colonel(Ret’d) looks at the insane statement of a US diplomat who wants to send 150.000 US troops into the Ukraine to confront the Russians…He sees it as both mad and undoable as the US no longer can marshall such forces,after the disasters of Afg’stan and Iraq.and American people will not support such a moive
One wonders if some US policy makers need help for their mental conditions and their lack of understanding of the new world emerging,as US power declines
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/18/ground-troops-to-ukraine-really-mr-ambassador/
_________________
Slash the “mum and dad” investment in property by stopping negative gearing, then end up with them claiming the pension.
Can’t have it both ways.
Because of my investments in property I will not be claiming the pension which I would have had to do if I hadn’t invested.
Which would you prefer?
kezza
fair enough, but..
[But, I think you’re being a bit too defensive of your own lying to kids.]
I went into teaching determined to be absolutely honest. It caused me no end of trouble.
“Are the reports written yet, miss?”
“Yes.”
“For all subjects?”
“Yes.”
Result — a class of kids who not only don’t work in your class, but don’t work in any other class, either.
The kids, being cheerfully honest, tell all the teachers that you’re the one who told them the reports have been written.
Disaster.
Now, in the days of computers, I can more honestly say that I’ve written mine, but that they’re in draft form….
I don’t lie to kids if I can possibly help it. But I certainly wouldn’t have any trouble justifying why I was doing it if I did.
[1335….zoomster]
The discussion of honesty is an interesting one. We’re thinking about the ethics of making truthful/untruthful statements. It is obviously not difficult to imagine circumstances when “ethical” purposes would be served by making untrue statements. The example given by Fran has been classed as a form of “saving deceit” in philosophy.
Along with the continuum of true/untrue statements, we should also consider some other dimensions, including for example issues of “trust/mistrust”, “duty”, “propriety/impropriety”, keeping/breaking “promises”, acting in “good faith/bad faith” to think of just a few. How do acts of dishonesty compare to acts of violence? What distinguishes good violence from bad violence?
There are many ways to evaluate these ideas. Are they important only insofar as they affect others or are they important in themselves in all cases? Is state of mind or intention important in determining whether acts are ethical or not?
For mine, the discussion here today raises far more questions than it has answered.
Achmed
[GENY/X all whine about the baby boomers being a burden on them, yet want to limit the financial independence that would could with a couple of investment properties.]
No they do not. The needs of babyboomers and gen x/y would both be better served by mechanisms that grow the economy as a whole, and that is not negative gearing. It ties a huge amount of our capital up revolving around buying existing properties, not building new ones or investing in projects and companies that create jobs.
Once you remove the tax dodge for negative gearing, most property investment is exposed as a pyramid scheme promoted by a bunch of fee gougers. It has to stop or we wind up like the USA before the GFC.
I do not want to see this as intergenerational warfare, any more than I want it to be class warfare. If people are saving for their retirement, invest in something productive. Leave the tax dodges alone, or don’t complain if you lose when the rort is ended.