BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

This week’s Nielsen result prompts a startling shift to the Greens in the weekly poll aggregate, which in turn drives a solid move to Labor on two-party preferred.

Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.

The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.

Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,593 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor”

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  1. Fran

    Your rating of lying as a “grave offence” is an extremely common value held by teachers (for 40 years I have had to work closely with literally 1000s of that species, and count many of them as my friends).

    I have argued with teachers for years who have held that value, and often the best way to end the conversation was to focus on the that teacher’s lying. In quite a few cases they had admitted to lying in previous conversations with me (‘I knew I was late for playground duty but I just told him there was a bit of a queue up at the ladies loo”).

    Failing that prior info, it was not hard to pose a few circumstances where they may well have lied to their partner, child, or boss,to protect their privacy, and rightly so.

    Sadly, it reflects badly on the impoverished training and education given to teachers, especially in the area of human behaviour ie psychology and related areas.

    The fact is, humans lie. All humans lie. Even you Fran, I’m sure tell lies.

    I expect you to get up on your high horse now and use a range of heavy duty words and phrases to refute this but nevertheless it fundamental that as a species, humans will do anything to protect or further the interests of No1, and lying is one of our most effective strategies to do this.

    The ubiquitous Dr Phil (who I’m confident that you will reject as a mere pop psychologist) has a favourite saying …… “if it’s a teenager, it lies”.

    There is of course huge research evidence that demonstrates that lying is the norm, as youngsters attemt to individuate from their parents. One reason for this is to protect their emerging needs for privacy, as they set about that task of learning from their mistakes to be effective adults.

    Most of us “grow out of” a heavy reliance on lying, but when push comes to shove and No 1 needs to be protected, lying is the tool of choice for many of us in many circumstances.

    I distinguish what I have written above from pathological lying, which is by definition not the norm.

  2. From Lenore Taylor’s article:
    [Faulkner proposes grassroots pre-selections for upper house candidates at state and federal level as part of a solution.]
    I recently voted in a ballot for the Greens candidate for the Eastern Metro region for the upcoming Victorian state election. There is always the choice of picking the option to seek another candidate if you do not want to vote for the candidates who have already put their hand up.

    It’s very empowering to be involved in such a process.

    Join the Greens Party 🙂

  3. David WH
    I am not sure if it was better or worse in the past re corruption, especially in NSW.

    On your side you had Bob Askin, who allegedly (via unsubstantiated rumour) not only knew the crooks was the chief crook and owner of the 301 Club (illegal casino) in Goulburn St. Then there were the many property shysters, mostly working at local council level.

    On the side of labor – well lotsa sleazy deals with allegations against Murphy, Richardson and going back to “Red Ted” Theodore.

    Qld pretty much the same as NSW.
    Victoria there were the 1890 scandals and the John Wren saga but by and large they seemed much cleaner than NSW. It is my gut feeling that the biggest change in Australia has been the growth of the underworld in Victoria, but perhaps this is naivety on my part.

    SA was fairly corruption free so they took to serial murder instead.

  4. BB and Fran

    There was a discussion aout Abbott grabbing the forearm or shoulder of hand-shakees last week.

    Someone (pretty sure Poroti or Guytaur) put up some excellent links about this phenomenon, why it is done, and the affrontery of it.

    In summary, it is a widespread practice amongst jerks.

  5. ABC-24 panel members and journalists now prasing the “new NSW leadership team”to high heaven, pointing out the excellence of the “seamless transition” from BOF to Baird.

    If the same thing had happened under Labor, they would have been asking if this wasn’t a “cynical stitch-up between the factions.”

    “Seamless transitions” only occur in the Liberal PArty, apparently.

  6. DTR I don’t know whether it was better or worse in the past either but it has become more difficult to cover up corrupt behaviour. These corruption commissions make it easier for suspect behaviour to have light shone on them and real time media means people are more aware of the inner workings of politics. People don’t like what is being revealed.

  7. [I do like the idea of minutes for meetings between lobbyists and politicians.]
    As John Secombe points out it was Greens MLC John Kaye who suggested it:
    [Promptly after O’Farrell’s fall, Greens MLC John Kaye put out his party’s suggestion: “All meetings between businesses seeking a favourable government decision and ministers, parliamentary secretaries, senior bureaucrats or ministerial staffers must be minuted and made publicly available,“ he said.]

  8. Bushfire Bill@1256

    ABC-24 panel members and journalists now prasing the “new NSW leadership team”to high heaven, pointing out the excellence of the “seamless transition” from BOF to Baird.

    If the same thing had happened under Labor, they would have been asking if this wasn’t a “cynical stitch-up between the factions.”

    “Seamless transitions” only occur in the Liberal PArty, apparently.

    Its sickening, but won’t save the ABC from getting “the treatment”.

  9. [Two weeks after receiving the bottle of Grange Hermitage that would lead to his resignation as premier, Barry O’Farrell was preparing to appoint the man who bought the extravagant gift, businessman Nick Di Girolamo, to a well-paid position on a government board.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/job-offer-after-wine-gift-20140418-36wg1.html#ixzz2zHlbCNTP ]

    I guess there’s the answer as to why the wine wasn’t declared: no public link between the Premier and NDG.

  10. Judging from the ABC’s current editorial/journalistic standards, its eventual take-over by Murdoch will be a “seamless transition”, as well.

  11. [Its sickening, but won’t save the ABC from getting “the treatment”.]

    Totally unrelated, but I’ve noticed ABC news online has changed its homepage. It used to be nationally oriented, but now defaults to your state for the entire page.

    Very annoying.

  12. Shanahan gets a pre-budget leak.

    [THE pension age will be pushed out to 70 in next month’s budget and may come into effect as early as 2029 under a razor-gang proposal to accelerate Labor’s plan to raise the pension age from 65 to 67.

    There are no plans to cut the existing pension but consideration is being given to changing the rate of indexation for age-pension payments.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/pension-age-on-fast-path-to-70/story-e6frg926-1226889586494#

  13. Great days racing for those interested Bludgers.

    After the Rabbits turned over possession in their own 20m twice to blow a 14/6 to get beat 15/14, I’m keen for Ruddy style payback 😈

    NRL:

    – Warriors

    Randwick:

    – Solicit

    – Lucia Valentina

    – The Offer

    – Royal Descent

    Have a good one 😎

  14. sohar:

    The other thing they’ve done is dial back on pushing the Drum. As recently as last year a political ‘scandal’ would see ABC online pushing out several opinion pieces through the Drum, but now you have to actually go searching for them.

  15. Seems the six degrees of separation are shrinking rapidly.

    [‏@BridgetOFlynn 2m
    By the by thing is, junior counsel assisting Watson at #icac is Greg O’Mahoney. He’s Peter VanO’s bestie.]

  16. [Judging from the ABC’s current editorial/journalistic standards, its eventual take-over by Murdoch will be a “seamless transition”, as well.]

    When I heard Murdoch whinging that the public were getting good accurate information without a chance for him to mislead them or extract money from them, I thought it was a dreadful attack that would never succeed.

    I don’t know why the ABC thought the best survival strategy was to be Murdoch lite content wise, and become so much like Murdoch that I wouldn’t miss it much at all.

  17. Psyclaw

    I don’t need to reach far into the lexicon to respond to your claim that I lie. I don’t do it. Ever.

    I’d sooner huddle alone on a park bench than start lying.

    Often I know things that I choose not to disclose because IMO, a greater harm would arise from disclosing it, or the person is not, IMO entitled to know.

    That’s not to say that there is no conceivable situation in which I might choose to lie. There are indeed worse things to contemplate than huddling alone on a park bench. I read of brave folk who have hidden people from murderers. During the Rwandan genocide, I heard a story of a Hutu man who had hidden his Tutsi neighbours on his farm, who had misdirected bands of killers by saying they had fled. To be truthful and a party to an atrocity would not be the lesser harm. That would be an extreme example of the maxim I suggested above. That man, his lies notwithstanding, was a man of exemplary courage and ethics.

    Putting aside such considerations though, lying continues to be something I will never do. My work colleagues and students know that I will never lie on their behalf.

    As an interesting aside, years ago I had an autism spectrum student who was unable to lie. He was regularly unkempt and had virtually zero social skills. He was one of a very few people I believed when he would say “I don’t care what others think”. He really didn’t. He couldn’t lie even when he ought to have feared retribution. It was his condition. Whenever there was some mischief in his class, the aetiology of which I’d missed, I’d ask him what had happened, and he would recount in bland detail, in sequence the order of events. He had an excellent memory. The other students didn’t even bother saying he was lying because they knew how ridiculous that would sound.

    I was a great admirer, though also sad for him, because his inability to lie reflected his inability to empathise, or see motive in others or to have any personal interest in his own future. Personally, I’d have preferred he had these gifts and occasionally lied than the other way around, but given that wasn’t on the table, his honesty and candour were refreshing.

  18. DavidWH

    I do know for sure that sexual scandal was hushed up big time.

    Journos knew that Menzies was a major womanizer but it was kept very quiet.

    Alarm sprang out at the telegraph when the telefax started whirring about how Mr and Mrs Menzies stepped of the boat in San Francisco. Urgent calls delete delete, delete MRS MENZIES is still in Australia. 🙂

    Then there was the Gretel issue. I shall say no more but rumour said !!!!!!!. Fairfax and Menzies were NOT friends for some time

  19. psyclaw

    The Double hander increases the amount of physical contact given by the initiator and gives control over the receiver by restricting his right hand. Sometimes called the “politicians handshake” , the initiator of the Double-hander tries to give the impression he is trustworthy and honest.. But when it is used on a person he’s just met it can have the reverse effect , leaving the receiver feeling suspicious about the initiators intentions. The Double-Hander is like a miniature hug and is acceptable only in circumstances where a hug could also be acceptable.

  20. Did $3,000 down get the di Giro $100,000 over three years?

    If so, a canny investment, even by spiv standards.

    But then they do say that it is remarkable what a bottle of champers and a turkey can buy you at the local council.

  21. Bugger, hit post to early. This is the bit about why Abbott is using it in all the wrong places.

    [“… it should never be used in greeting where a personal bond doesn’t exist with the other person. It should only be used where an emotional bond already exists, such as meeting an old friend.]

  22. They expose an alleged attempt to siphon Sydney Water’s customer cash flows in north-west Sydney to a consortium of vested interests via an entity – Australian Water Holdings – under the guise of a ‘public private partnership’.

    that should read TaxpayerVb> money rather than “customer”

  23. With the intention to break yet another promise with the plan to change pensions.

    Hockey will retire with a $275,000 per annum pension. Will he work to 70yr old?

    Will he (and all othe MP’s)take a cut in his pension or is the age of entitlement only ended for the low paid, vulnerable and needy?

  24. fran & psyclaw

    I have always been shocked by teachers who dismiss students ‘because he looked me in the eye and lied.”

    Students are in the classic underdog situation – probably more so than most, as they have very little choice but to be where they are. Naturally, there’s an underlying resentment there, no matter how ‘good’ the student is. (My own sons, both incredibly well adjusted socially and academically, still made it clear that that resentment was there).

    People who feel they are oppressed, rightly or wrongly, don’t feel any obligation to play by the rules imposed on them. They do feel that they are entitled to use whatever means they can to avoid trouble.

    I used to put myself in the position of the student — that is, not as an adult, with more resources at my disposal, but as someone who had to obey certain rules, without means of appeal, and who faced certain punishment for telling the truth.

    If saying a dog ate my homework saved me from spending an hour of my time being bored sh*tless for no good reason, then I’d certainly lie. Particularly when the rules and the consequences can seem so arbitrary.

    Even as a parent, I resent some of the school’s rulings. Of course, as a parent, I at least have some way of protesting against them.

    But students (by and large) don’t. That breeds resentment.

    (Interesting side note: having taught in both NSW and Victoria, students in NSW appear to be far more distrustful of teachers than those in Victoria. I have no idea why that should be so).

    And I agree with psyclaw — teachers lie, too, in much the same circumstances students do. Which, of course, only adds to the resentment.

  25. Boerwar@1274

    Did $3,000 down get the di Giro $100,000 over three years?

    If so, a canny investment, even by spiv standards.

    Particularly when AWH paid for the plonk, AWH then passed the cost onto Sydney Water and Sydney rate payers.

    There may well be something in ICAC thinking di Girolamo might have done something other than gift the plonk to BOF.

  26. It has emerged that soon after Di Girolamo had the Grange delivered to the O’Farrell residence in April 2011, he was registered as a lobbyist for Kores, the South Korean coal company which was seeking to develop its massive Wallarah 2 long wall mine under a contentious catchment in the central coast.

    O’Farrell had famously told the locals in 2009 that there would be no mining in the catchment – “No ifs, no buts … a guarantee”. But in government Kores got the nod from the director general of Planning, Sam Haddad, and a Planning Assessment Commission is now merit assessing the mine on social, environmental and economic criteria. The locals are furious and feel betrayed.

  27. Abbott’s own words are nagging him as he prepares for ruthless pruning in his first Budget.

    The night before the election last September he pledged: “No cuts to education, no cuts to health, no change to pensions, no change to the GST and no cuts to the ABC or SBS.”

    Those promises are cramping his fiscal style as the May 13 Budget nears, but they are not the only Abbott-isms the Prime Minister might regret using:

    “Compulsory paid maternity leave? Over this Government’s dead body, frankly.” (2002).

    Mr Abbott has not only accepted the principle of maternity leave since — he wants to introduce the most expensive option Australia has seen, increasing taxes to pay for it while campaigning as a tax scrapping government.

    “The science of climate change is absolute crap.” (2009)

    Whatever his views on climate change, as Prime Minister he is asking Australians to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on Direct Action, which in part would pay companies to cut carbon emissions.

    “I won’t be doing deals with independents and minor parties.” (August, 2013)

    He may have to in order to get his Budget through the Senate, where in July he will have to deal with a crossbench (neither government, Labor, nor Green) of eight.

    We just can’t stop people from being homeless if that’s their choice.” (February, 2010)

    Mr Abbott has changed his views since then — accepting that those who are homeless by choice have deeper problems — but might be reminded of his old position should funds for the homeless be cut.

    “We will be a consultative, collegial government. No surprises, no excuses.” (July, 2013)

  28. fran

    as for you never lying, that’s nonsense. I remember perfectly well you stating something which was untrue, providing you with the evidence that proved it was untrue, and you refusing to accept the evidence because you didn’t want to admit that you might have, er, lied.

    But that’s OK, you know. Most of us lie to ourselves about something.

  29. [There’s a wide field of research on the link between language and both psychology and behavior…

    Navigation and Pormpuraawans
    In Pormpuraaw, an Australian Aboriginal community, you wouldn’t refer to an object as on your “left” or “right,” but rather as “northeast” or “southwest,” writes Stanford psychology professor Lera Boroditsky (and an expert in linguistic-cultural connections) in the Wall Street Journal. About a third of the world’s languages discuss space in these kinds of absolute terms rather than the relative ones we use in English, according to Boroditsky. “As a result of this constant linguistic training,” she writes, “speakers of such languages are remarkably good at staying oriented and keeping track of where they are, even in unfamiliar landscapes.” On a research trip to Australia, Boroditsky and her colleague found that Pormpuraawans, who speak Kuuk Thaayorre, not only knew instinctively in which direction they were facing, but also always arranged pictures in a temporal progression from east to west.
    .
    Blame and English Speakers
    In the same article, Boroditsky notes that in English, we’ll often say that someone broke a vase even if it was an accident, but Spanish and Japanese speakers tend to say that the vase broke itself. Boroditsky describes a study by her student Caitlin Fausey in which English speakers were much more likely to remember who accidentally popped balloons, broke eggs, or spilled drinks in a video than Spanish or Japanese speakers. (Guilt alert!) Not only that, but there’s a correlation between a focus on agents in English and our criminal-justice bent toward punishing transgressors rather than restituting victims, Boroditsky argues.]

    More in the article.
    http://blog.ted.com/2013/02/19/5-examples-of-how-the-languages-we-speak-can-affect-the-way-we-think/

  30. Bob Ellis unloads on the week’s events, and their genesis

    [For the Liberal Party is the Lobbyists’ Party, it has no other moral purpose any more. It is there to give contracts to mates who build the airport, and the roads to and from it, and positions to crooks like Di Girolamo who kick back money to it.

    Nick Greiner, wonderfully, said on Thursday that “of course” he would have accepted a $3,000 bottle of wine, it was how lobbying worked, by which he meant how bribery worked.

    He thus reminds us of the billions Howard tried to dropkick to Doug Moran, a donor, in varied fees for his old age homes, and the $298 million dollars Downer and Vaile gave to Saddam Hussein to ‘smooth the passage’ of Australian wheat to Ba’athist flour mills in Iraq. And, of course, the $5,000 you had to pay, once, to get through Mayor Campbell Newman’s door.

    It’s what Abbott means by “open for business”. It’s in the Liberals’ DNA. They are the Lobbyists’ Party, the mates’ rates party, the kickback party.]

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/grangegate-and-the-lobbyists-party,6396

  31. The Abbott lie that pensions would not be touched is compounded by the very fact that his pension, nor that of all polticians, including $275,000 a year Hockey, is not asset tested, is not means tested and they don’t have to wait until 70yrs old. Abbott will have a pension of over $300,000 per year

    These are the people who are making the decision that you will work until 70yr old and that your assets, that is the home you live in, will be used to assess how much they can reduce your pension.

  32. sprocket

    I remember once running a Labor policy forum locally. Anyone who wanted to have their say could rock up, and at most might be asked to buy a raffle ticket.

    The morning I was heading off to it, I opened the paper to find an ad from the Libs offering people a similar opportunity for policy input…at $700 a head.

  33. lizzie
    Are you trying to tell us that O’Farrell couldn’t tell left from right or right from wrong because he is an english speaker?

  34. Tony Abbott on the court decision against Jananese whaling:

    [“It’s now up to Japan to appropriately reflect on the judgment, and I’m sure that’s exactly what will happen,” he said in Perth on Tuesday. “Japan is an exemplary international citizen.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/02/japan-should-reflect-on-whaling-ruling-says-tony-abbott ]

    Emphasis on the word “exactly”. You have to parse Abbott’s words carefully. A lawyer’s skills are handy in this. Abbott is a master at playing weasel words.

    Japan has just announced it will recommence whaling in the Pacific. Whaling in the area in which Japan intends to cover was not part of the court decision.

    [Tokyo (AFP) – Japan said Friday it would redesign its controversial Antarctic whaling mission in a bid to make it more scientific, after a United Nations court ruled it was a commercial hunt masquerading as research.

    The bullish response, which could see harpoon ships back in the Southern Ocean next year, sets Tokyo back on a collision course with environmentalists.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/22734854/japan-will-continue-scientific-whaling-in-pacific-reports/ ]

    But I’ll bet not with Tony Abbott, lately touting himself as “Japan’s best friend”.

    Is everybody confident that Abbott will press the Japanese to follow the spirit of the ruling, instead of adhere strictly to the letter of (and loopholes present in) it?

  35. This whole “Infrastructure PM” tag which Abbott aspires to symptomatic of the Liberal DNA – it is learnt in the petty rezoning scams at local councils with the white shoe brigade property developers.

    Di Girolamo has risen up the greasy pole so far he was trying to get the Balmain Tigers clubhouse (on Victoria road Rozelle) rezoned for skyscraper apartments and shopping malls in an already congested area. Sadly, his lobbying on this one has failed (so far).

    No wonder Abbott got so angry when his Infrastructure PM announcement was derailed by BoF and the “corruption” question.

  36. George Brandis says it is “deplorable” deniers are being excluded from the climate change debate and people who say the science is settled are ignorant and medieval.

    This from the Party that is closing down anything and everything that is working towards sustainable and renewable energy to address climate change.

    While his Govt sidlines climate change scientists he stands with that well credentialed scientist and all his peer reviewed papers – Bolt the Dolt.

  37. Mike Baird’s biggest challenge is to detail how he will clean up what Ross Cameron, former Liberal MP for Parramatta described as the Liberal party being a life support for the lobbying industry.”

    It seems that even some Liberals agree with Ellis

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