BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

This week’s Nielsen result prompts a startling shift to the Greens in the weekly poll aggregate, which in turn drives a solid move to Labor on two-party preferred.

Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.

The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.

Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,593 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 32
1 2 3 … 32

  3. The problem the Liberals have is that the ICAC is investigating Liberals who apparently all pure as the driven snow.

    There is anger in the Liberal ranks that the ICAC is not chasing down more Labor people.

    When Labor identities are mentioned in the ICAC its because they are corrupt.

    When Liberals are mentioned by the ICAC it unfairly has named them and finished their career.

    Now the rotten mongrels want to change the rules of evidence. To ensure any evidence against Liberals is not permitted.

  4. The trouble with the ‘Labor has lost the middle class to the Greens and will never get them back’ line of argument is that it logically implies that Labor should target the working/lower classes more….which would have the opposite effect that those raising these concerns intend.

    After all, the majority of voters, almost by definition, fall into the ‘lower classes’.

    It should, though, satisfy those who are always arguing that the party should return to its base.

  6. Morning all.
    [Tony Abbott is scrambling to inoculate his Government from further fallout of a corruption probe that has claimed NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell’s scalp and has put Arthur Sinodinos’ ministerial future in doubt.

    As the Prime Minister commended his friend Mr O’Farrell yesterday for doing the “honourable” thing in resigning, documents emerged showing the company at the centre of a corruption hearing paid $2650 for two employees to attend a Liberal Party dinner with Mr Abbott in 2010.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22695089/forgetful-premier-victim-of-the-grape/

  9. mikehilliard

    Gerard was totally and utterly embarrassing. His liberal world is falling around his feet and it is all ICAC’s fault and a bloody bottle of wine. And yet another lib who chastised a female journo.
    He along with his fellow liberal luvvies are a disgrace

  10. AA

    According to Gerard Henderson, it was a memory failure. But yet JGillard was supposed to recall preparing a form 20 years ago when she was a young solicitor, seriously this mob disgust me

  12. victoria:

    Yes it’s way funny seeing these Liberal shills with the tables now turned on them. The treatment of Gillard is a stark contrast to how they demand BOF is treated.

  15. Victoria

    Thank you for the lateline link what an embarrassment Gerald Henderson is , trying to bully his way out of the predicament
    his beloved LNP are in

  16. But yet JGillard was supposed to recall preparing a form 20 years ago when she was a young solicitor, seriously this mob disgust me

    Yep, the double standards are the too reflection of a mob of hypocrites who very much live by the “do as I say, not as I do” standard.

    The Liberals have taken the “innocent mistake” to a whole new level.

    Claiming to be the “adults” yet they cannot even fill out their travel allowance forms without regularly and continuously making “innocent” mistakes.

    Adults make an innocent mistake once, not every time they go to a wedding, footy match or check on their investment property, or a book signing or ride a bike

  17. The identity of the next premier of NSW is obvious: the liberal who will do the least to rock the boat and reform the party. Unfortunately, I’m not sure whether that is Baird or Gladys (I suspect Baird).

  19. Has any journo asked why Nick Di Girolamo produced a thank you note from three years ago. As i said last night, he did not have to. He could have destroyed note, and BOF would still be Premier.

  21. zoomster

    I saw no arguments about never winning votes back. Just that Labor should not its not radical leftist types changing their voting pattern.

  23. For those who don’t know Baird, he is the NSW Treasurer that despite inheriting a surplus and landing his job after the Global Financial Crisis was over, has delivered nothing but deficits in the job.

    He is also infamous as being the Treasurer who lost a $1 billion.

  25. Is O’Farrell’s resignation more to do with what is still to be exposed by the ICAC more than about a bottle of wine?

  26. AA

    Also Mike Baird has a connection to Mr send a Grange. Why yesterday it was thought Gladys BerejIklian was the front runner

  28. AA

    BOF tried to ride out any connection to Nick di Girolamo. He was emphatic. Nick Girolamo signed BOF’s death warrant by producing the thank you note. I daresay Nick was also sending his own message to BOF

  29. This is not good.

    [Envelopes containing white powder and a threat “if the powder doesn’t get you, the bomb will” were among five suspicious packages that forced Colin Barnett’s staff to be quarantined and left the offices of Treasurer Mike Nahan and The West Australian on alert last night.

    Detectives from the serious and organised crime division are investigating who sent the letters.

    Initial tests yesterday on substances found in the envelopes determined they were not dangerous, but further tests will be conducted today.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/22694568/threats-white-powder-in-letters/

  30. [Has any journo asked why Nick Di Girolamo produced a thank you note from three years ago. As i said last night, he did not have to. He could have destroyed note, and BOF would still be Premier.]

    BOF was virtually accusing Nick Di Girolimo of misleading ICAC. So I guess it was tit for tat.

    Nicky Dee (as he used to be called at Colin, Biggers & Paisley) has a reputation to maintain, after all.

  31. “@adambspencer: if even 10% of 9-5ers worked 7-3 and 10% 11-7pm we wouldn’t need to spend billions more on roads so everyone can get to work at 8.45am!”

  34. Then now we know: Baird is the establishment choice who will not rock the boat. Good news for Labor, if not the state. Gladys Good-Legs would have been a tough opponent. Baird is colourless.

  40. [54
    zoomster

    The trouble with the ‘Labor has lost the middle class to the Greens and will never get them back’ line of argument is that it logically implies that Labor should target the working/lower classes more….which would have the opposite effect that those raising these concerns intend.

    After all, the majority of voters, almost by definition, fall into the ‘lower classes’.

    It should, though, satisfy those who are always arguing that the party should return to its base.]

    The three greens booth workers I met on April 5 included a nurse, an electrician/instrument tech and a clerk. The latter had two little kids. They’re working people whichever way you look at it.

  41. the world is in melt down again in eastern europe – russian tanks and soldier on ukraine soil – and we are obsessed about a bottle of wine and fifth in line the archaic house of windsor. i have no idea at all why of resigned – he made a mistake, he couldn’t remember, WTF.

    the person who seriously does not impress at present is Obama .. not a word for a week – this is all caused by his failure in syria …when the going gets tough the tough aren’t there …

  42. I don’t know if Shellbell is around but I was wondering and not wanting to do the research to find out if there is an element of intent necessary for the false and misleading evidence to ICAC charge.

    I’m not suggesting he should be charged at all but it is quite a distinction. The journo Kate McClymont needed to be able to distinguish between lying (of which there is little evidence) and inadvertently giving false and misleading evidence (which he definitely did) and whether the offence requires intent or not. Henderson is the worst of the worst, he is slime.

  43. I hope that they had a box of tissues ready for Hendo on Lateline.

    Apart from that it is interesting to see the pattern of Hendo’s deliberate obfuscations.

    I give Kate ten out of ten for her Lateline performance.

  44. AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 at 8:59 am | PERMALINK
    Is O’Farrell’s resignation more to do with what is still to be exposed by the ICAC more than about a bottle of wine?

    ———-one wonders indeed …… abbott and sidn could be gone

  45. “@political_alert: NSW Opposition Leader John Robertson will hold a media conference at St George Hospital at 11am #NSWpol”

  46. [he made a mistake, he couldn’t remember]

    No if he’d just said he couldn’t remember he’d still be premier, his evidence, as I understand it was that he didn’t remember AND would remember getting a bottle of grange and would have listed it as received. Well he did get it and wrote a note with a joke about it.

  47. Meher Baba

    [Unaccountable freewheeling bodies like ICAC are a big worry]

    It is not unaccountable. It is subject to legal control of the Supreme Court.

    It is not freewheeling as its own people are very conscious of their statutory function and limitation.

    It is only a worry to the corrupt and now, thank goodness, those iin power who are casual towards propriety.

  48. [abbott and sidn could be gone]

    Sidn should be gone for absolute incompetence as a director making him unfit for any office, would be lovely is there was something that ensnared Abbott but we have no evidence yet.

Comments Page 2 of 32
1 2 3 … 32

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *