BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

The Coalition lead in Newspoll causes the two parties to reach parity on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, while Tony Abbott pulls ahead of Bill Shorten on net approval.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged. On the seat projection, the Coalition is back in majority government territory, the meter having ticked in their favour by two seats in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. After a quiet spot last week, new leadership figures have emerged from Newspoll and Essential Research, and they find Tony Abbott with a rare lead over Bill Shorten on net approval, although preferred prime minister remains in the stasis it assumed in early December.

Also note that coverage of the Western Australian Senate count is ongoing on the dedicated thread, with a Liberal victory in the final seat looking increasingly likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

  1. [@TonyHWindsor: Insiders ABC Joe Hockey’s long term precautionary principle approach to economic sustainability should also apply to Climate Change.Why not?]

    This is exactly what I said as I watched Joe.

  2. Hockey is promising that everyone will “contribute”, i.e. suffer, from the Budget, even politicians. Can’t wait to see what privileges they will lose.

  3. “@antfarmer: Isn’t #insiders meant to cut through the party spin? Panel nodding obsequiously about Abbots Asia PR. Uhlman even parroting lines verbatim”

  4. Everything@1760

    Blain:

    Another election in which the ALP cannot get to 40%.

    The ALP has not reached 40% in any State, Territory or Federal election in more than 5 years.

    Hope you have a good recipe for omelet, Pal.
    You’re going to need it come November.
    The high water mark has been reached, and as 2010 showed us, the tide can switch extremely quickly.

  5. don@1739

    bemused@1725

    The advantage of plugging in to your router is that the printer can be used from any computer on your network.

    We just might be onto something.

    Mine is too, and works from any computer accessing the wifi/router.

    But printers have a mind of their own. Here there be dragons.

    Can’t say I have had much trouble with printers in recent years. Just a case of set ’em and forget ’em.
    My printer is about 5 years old, maybe older.
    I have installed drivers on 3 computers with Windows XP, Windows Vista (more a virus than an operating system) and Windows 7. I don’t recall having any significant problems.

  6. Victoria is the ALP’s best chance at 40%….however, they haven’t reached it it in the last 6 Victorian State Newspolls

  7. Which ever party gets the most “primaries”, as as if proves some kind of mandate, is besides the point.

    At the moment, as I understand it, more than 20% of those entitled are not on any kind of electoral roll. Of those who are, sometimes are many as 20% (in some booths at the WA Senate election) prefer to pay $20 rather than front, and of those who do, up to 5% stuff their vote up.

    Now, I am not making any excuses for these people as I view the vote as something to take care with, but I would guess that those who chose to opt out or just don’t care would more likely be potential Labor voters than conservative.

    I have no hard evidence for this, but the fact that in WA the postals are strongly favouring the Lib candidate(votes made by probably well-organised individuals) says something about those who care and those who don’t.

    Despite all this, most of the electorate, most of the time, based on TPP, usually don’t won’t a conservative government.

    If one must use primaries to make comparison then it should the Liberal vote sans the Nationals and compare this with the Labor vote.

    We hear so much about the “Coalition” but when it suits the Nationals, they tell us they are not the Liberals. Why bother?

    The reality, Federally, is that it is unlikely the Liberals on their own, could ever form government.

    The Federal Coalition, never mind the Liberal party, needs upwards of 41% of the primary vote and about 44% has been the upper limit to win comfortable victories.

    When people use the thrown away line that ‘Mr Abbott does not speak for me’ for the majority of Australians, most of the time, this is probably true.

    The hard reality, of course, is that Labor under its own steam needs in the high 30s Federally, and they fall short of this from time to time.

  8. Oh, and the hubris we are seeing from the Fiberal posters here (not to mention the media and their obsession with the “demise” of the ALP), only proves that that tide will switch quicker than any of us think.

  9. “@gabriellechan: Fantastic final #insiders clip of Abbott mustering biz delegates OS: “Where are the ladeez?” he asks, “the media have frightened them away””

  10. Victoria,

    [Has Abbott found the black box yet?]

    Tones wants all future editions to be filled with weightless CO2, so that they’ll float to the surface.

  11. [Tricot
    ….The reality, Federally, is that it is unlikely the Liberals on their own, could ever form government.]

    Actually, that is quite wrong.

    The Liberal party has won the majority of the last 8 elections over the last 40 years without needing the Coalition with the Nationals (the most recent example complicated by the LNP combination in Qld being a bit harder to tease apart!)

  12. Socrates@1745

    Morning all. BK enjoy the fishing!

    One of the IPAs drones trots out a string of unproven assertions to argue the GST should not be raised. ABC Factcheck please check the rubbish of your own columnists. Australia is one of the lowest taxing regimes in the OECD.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-11/novak-revenue-lobbyists-should-leave-the-gst-alone/5383862

    Speaking of ABC Factcheck, they clearly know nothing about trains.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-11/barry-ofarrell-sydney-trains-claim-doubtful/5371446

    Single decker trains have fewer seats than double decker trains. However they have a much faster boarding time. Thus you can run more rains per hour on a line and move more people overall.

    And why is that? I have read it elsewhere, but having ridden both I cannot see any reason why it is so other than because of passenger behaviour which can be modified.

    If passengers wishing to alight wait until the train stops at their station before arising from a seat in the middle of the carriage and then make their leisurely way to the door, of course it will take longer for them to get off the train.

    But if they start moving toward a door before they reach their station it should make no difference whether the train is single or double deck.

  13. For 6 years, like a pack of spoiled brats who refused to accept the verdict of the Australian voters, the Liberals whinged, hectored, and hounded the electorate until they got back into government.
    Now they are back in, without any policies, and with no idea how to govern, they are rapidly being found out as the fraudulent mob that they are.
    That tide will switch quicksmart, and they are setting themselves up, for a decade in opposition, come the next election.

  14. Yesiree Bob,

    [tide will switch quicker than any of us think]

    Too true.

    Look how fickle those tides were when our boats strayed into Indo waters.

  15. [Tricot
    ….Despite all this, most of the electorate, most of the time, based on TPP, usually don’t won’t a conservative government.]

    This is also probably wrong, but it would take a lot of work to go back and look!

    Certainly, federally, the Coalition has won the majority of TPP votes in the majority of seats in the last 5 years (both 2010 and 2013 in other words)

    In South Australia, the Coalition has won the majority of PP votes in the majority of seats in the 6 of the last 7 elections.

  16. bemused

    The “landing” where the doors are only fits a limited number of people. There are stations at which that means going to the doors is not possible as there are too many people.

    However I do think this scenario is exaggerated as far as making a difference with the trains. Sydney trains have a stop at station based on what studies show is the slowest person alighting from the train.

    That would be an elderly person. I do not think single deck carriages would make much difference to this metric

  17. To put it in more simple terms for you zoidy unless labor improves in wa and qld, the liberals only need win 40 per cent of seats in the other 4 states and territories to get a majority in the house of reps.

  18. @EDJ/1822

    Bahahaha “to put it more simple terms”, sounds like another attack to me instead, patronizing people again, you liberals?

  19. And I don’t think there has been an election in 50 years where they have failed to get 40 per cent of seats ever in those 4 states and territories.

  20. Bemused 1815

    The double deck carriages all have stairs, that slow people down. Plus people from both upper and lower decks crush together where the stairs meet. When they get crowded they are much slower getting people out of the carriages onto the platforms.

    Of course for longer journeys where the route is not at capacity two decks give more seats and more comfort. But the controlling factor on capacity of all our rail systems is the crowded part at key stations in the city centre. This determines how many trains we can run into the city on the various lines that radiate out. Loading time for trains is the critical factor at these key points, assuming signaling is up to date.

  21. [Edwina StJohn
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:16 am | PERMALINK
    To put it in more simple terms for you zoidy unless labor improves in wa and qld, the liberals only need win 40 per cent of seats in the other 4 states and territories to get a majority in the house of reps.]

    Close, its actually 39% by my calculations….or 38% if WA gets the extra seat and it remains 3 ALP:

    Coalition have 34 seats in Qld and WA alone, so 41/105 remaining = 39.0%

  22. Dtt 1800

    You have just summarised half of Piketty’s arguments. He goes on to explain how that outcome is an inevitable design feature of capitalism. He then uses statistics to prove it to a degree that right wingers are hating, and will find hard to deny. (Though they will deny it.)

    DTT, Fran, any others interested in social equity, I would really encourage you to get and read Piketty’s new book Capitalism in the 21st Century. It is a significant book in the evolution of economic thought. It should influence the labour movement, if the latter is to stay relevant.

    Here is a more detailed review by Paul Krugman
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/29/opinion/capitalism-vs-democracy.html?_r=0

  23. The question that Cassidy failed to ask Hockey this morning:
    Jolly Joe Hockey, if our budget position is in as dire state as you argue, then why are you scrapping the MRRT as scrapping taxes make no sense when you are trying to raise revenue, furthermore, why are you also persisting with the absolutely unaffordable paid parental leave scheme, if the budget is in such a mess ?
    Not only that, Joe ol’ Boy, why are you targeting pensioners as a way to subsidize your unsustainable paid parental leave scheme ?

  24. The reality, Federally, is that it is unlikely the Liberals on their own, could ever form government.

    By my reckoning the Liberals as a Party have only formed a Federal Govt without the need to form a Coalition with minor Party/Parties on three occasions in our Governments history.

  25. Yesiree Bob:

    Pointing out the requirements to win government in different scenarios is not hubris. A better description of your debate with ESJ is “denial”, actually.

  26. Everything@1814

    Tricot
    ….The reality, Federally, is that it is unlikely the Liberals on their own, could ever form government.


    Actually, that is quite wrong.

    The Liberal party has won the majority of the last 8 elections over the last 40 years without needing the Coalition with the Nationals (the most recent example complicated by the LNP combination in Qld being a bit harder to tease apart!)

    and again

  27. 1826
    Everything

    The arithmetic is inexorable. The non-LNP vote has been growing more divided and more susceptible to decay in the last few years. The result is the LNP have been winning more elections and winning them more easily. The failure of Labor to hold on to its vote in WA means the LNP will have an advantage in future federal elections.

    The result of more LNP governments will be felt in all kinds of ways, including in particular deepening social and economic injustice, more environmental destruction and poorer outcomes for population health, education and inter-generational opportunity.

    It’s very sad.

  28. Socrates

    I have taken the liberty of quoting this para by Krugman, because it seems to encapsulate the situation here, especially wrt the miners, esp. Gina, and many of the business leaders Tony has taken to Asia.

    [Capitalism, according to Piketty, confronts both modern and modernizing countries with a dilemma: entrepreneurs become increasingly dominant over those who own only their own labor. In Piketty’s view, while emerging economies can defeat this logic in the near term, in the long run, “when pay setters set their own pay, there’s no limit,” unless “confiscatory tax rates” are imposed.]

    But I don’t quite see what Labor can do.

  29. [AussieAchmed
    ….By my reckoning the Liberals as a Party have only formed a Federal Govt without the need to form a Coalition with minor Party/Parties on three occasions in our Governments history.]

    Well, your reckoning is wrong!

    2013: Liberal party won 81 seats with 9 Nats for total of 90 seats
    2004: Liberal party won 75 seats with 12 Nats for a total of 87 seats
    1996: Liberal party won 76 seats with 18 Nats for a total of 94 seats
    1977: Liberal party won 67 seats with 19 Nats for a total of 86 seats (total = 124 seats)
    1975: Liberal party won 68 seats with 23 Nats for a total of 91 seats (total = 127 seats)

    So that is 5 of the last 8 election wins in the last 40 years with the Liberals winning in their own right. Yes, it is hard to tease out the Liberal from Nationals in the LNP in Qld….

  30. Yesiree Bob

    Barrie did ask Joe about the parental leave scheme vs pensions, and Joe smirked and gave his version of the trickle down theory. wtte “PPL is to get more people back to work so that they contribute to the taxes which will help pay for the currently unsustainable pensions.”

    Well, that’s his theory, otherwise known as an excuse to support Tony’s brainfart.

  31. lizzie:

    increased participation in the workforce, generating more production, generating more tax, reducing the amount spent on welfare payments aint what they mean by trickle down!

  32. lizzie@1838

    Yesiree Bob

    Barrie did ask Joe about the parental leave scheme vs pensions, and Joe smirked and gave his version of the trickle down theory. wtte “PPL is to get more people back to work so that they contribute to the taxes which will help pay for the currently unsustainable pensions.”

    Yeah, he bullshitted, trouble is he was fooling no one.
    It’s this sort of gobbledygook that will ensure that people will turn of the Fibs, sooner than most people anticipate.

  33. I think that’s exactly right briefly, I would also say the more labor moves to the right in wa and qld the more it loses of its southern states progressive base.

    It’s exactly the problem the democrats faced with the south from lbj through to Clinton. The only thing that has saved the dems has been the Latino vote. That obviously doesn’t apply in oz.

  34. Socrates@1825

    Bemused 1815

    The double deck carriages all have stairs, that slow people down. Plus people from both upper and lower decks crush together where the stairs meet. When they get crowded they are much slower getting people out of the carriages onto the platforms.

    Of course for longer journeys where the route is not at capacity two decks give more seats and more comfort. But the controlling factor on capacity of all our rail systems is the crowded part at key stations in the city centre. This determines how many trains we can run into the city on the various lines that radiate out. Loading time for trains is the critical factor at these key points, assuming signaling is up to date.

    I haven’t ridden on a really packed peak hour double deck train to enable me to observe passenger behaviour but I struggle to see any great difference between them and single deck.

    The people that extend the time for alighting and boarding single deck trains are those that make no move toward a door before the train comes to a complete stop at their station.

    This is an issue of passenger behaviour. It would be cured by a few experiences of the doors closing and taking them to the next station.

    Yes, it is a bit harder for the elderly and disabled, but the seats reserved for them are close to the doors and on double deck trains, there is an area at each end of the carriage that is not double deck.

    I think the problem is exaggerated.

  35. Lizzie

    Thanks for the quote. Piketty outlines solutions, and they have to do with the sort of fundamental tax reforms Labor in office parked after the GFC blew over. In short: tax wealth, more than income. See the last section of Krugman’s review. Read the book, it is readable by non economists.

    Have a good day all.

  36. [briefly
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 10:38 am | PERMALINK
    1826
    Everything

    The arithmetic is inexorable. The non-LNP vote has been growing more divided and more susceptible to decay in the last few years.]

    Yes, the ALP vote is being cut up with multiple recipients.

    The reason is that the ALP is not standing for anything, other than power and saying or doing whatever it takes.

    It appears that most on this blog want full steam ahead, though, so the Bullock cart is going to continue to hurtle towards the cliff.

  37. [Yesiree Bob
    …..By paying them to stay at home.

    Oh…kay…, so that’s not welfare then ?]

    Only if you consider sick leave and annual leave as welfare.

    Do you?

  38. 1975 68seats 127 seat Parliament. After providing Speaker need Coalition to maintain a majority

    1977 67 seats 127 seat Parliament – see above

    1996 75 seats 150 seat parliament – see above

    2004 75 seats 150 seat Parliament see above

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