Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Fortnightly results from Newspoll and Morgan both record shifts to the Coalition, in the former case giving them the lead for the first time in over three months.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.

Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,095 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. 945
    ruawake

    In both instances, if you can be a union member you are required to. But if there is no relevant union the provision is not relevant.

    In both WA and QLD (and I’m sure elsewhere), unions acting in combination with each other have the ability to determine preselections. Their power is institutionalised and it this that led to the preselection of Joe Bullock.

  2. If ‘unions’ control 30% of the vote and vote as a block then it will take over 71% of the remaining votes to overrule their choice. 30% is a handy voting block.

  3. [So where is this “you have to be a union member to join the ALP” bullshit coming from?]

    From Shortens office

    [“I believe it should no longer be compulsory for prospective members of the Labor Party to join a union,” he would have said, according to speech excerpts released by his office.
    ]

  4. [Andrew Elder @awelder · 2h ago
    Bob Carr: playing press gallery journalists like fiddles for twenty fucking years ]

    Well I guess that’s one way of looking at the reports of his book. 😆

  5. So it was the Herald Sun that started the bullshit.

    [LABOR leader Bill Shorten will call for his party to abandon its long-held requirement for members and candidates to be members of a trade union.]

    http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/labor-to-loosen-union-ties/story-fni0xqrb-1226876136712?

    Shame no journalist from any media organisation was prepared to delve into the real facts, the HS must be correct because Shorten did not actually give the speech they quoted. What a load of dog turds

  6. I heard a union official on AM say he wasn’t in favour of changing the rule requiring union membership. It seems those in Labor are confused so you can’t blame people outside the tent from being even more confused.

  7. 956

    In the Victorian ALP there is a “stability pack” where the factions get together and decide who they want and all vote as a block.

  8. [Shame no journalist from any media organisation was prepared to delve into the real facts]

    You write this as though it’s a surprise.

  9. [In the Victorian ALP there is a “stability pack” where the factions get together and decide who they want and all vote as a block.]

    In Victoria they don’t have the 70% membership vote.

    The ALP like the Liberal Party, like the Greens has different rules in different States.

    I have been trying to get the ALP to follow the Qld lead for months, it may happen soon.

    But lies about union membership are just lies.

  10. The ABC got it from Shortens office

    [“I believe it should no longer be compulsory for prospective members of the Labor Party to join a union,” he would have said, according to speech excerpts released by his office.

    The move could dull union influence in the party and is likely to face strong opposition from union leaders and some sections of the ALP.

    But Mr Shorten is calling for the party to support the rule change.

    “People will say this is a symbolic change – and it is. But it is more than that,” his speech reads.

    “We must make it clear that Labor is not for one group of Australians, or one sector of the economy, at the expense of others.”
    ]

  11. Re Union membership as a prerequisite for joining the ALP. It is still om the books in the ACT (scroll down – 4th bullet).

    http://www.actlabor.com.au/join/join-the-alp

    I have an idea that this has been a requirement in the past but as the workplace nance changed in recent years the rule has fallen into disuse and has apparently been dropped in most jurisdictions.

  12. [The ABC got it from Shortens office]

    They got it from New Ltd.

    As has been pointed out no State ALP requires union membership, the ACT is the only branch that even mentions it.

    So some speech notes from a never given speech are now to be believed over empirical evidence?

  13. [953
    ruawake

    briefly

    How the feck can unions adversly effect preselection when they have 30% of the vote? Never mind the Bullocks.]

    In “ordinary” preselections union delegates make up 50% of the total (160/320). I think in Senate preselections they have 2/3 (160/240), but I need to check that. (There are no “local” electors to credential in the case of the Senate, but I want to check that. It’s decades since I have had any part in a preselection ballot).

  14. I don’t think the union rule is here or there. People who are likely to want to join the ALP would also be likely to want to join a union if there was one relevant to their occupation.

    What Labor needs to do is tidy up its selection processes so that nonentitities like Joe Bullock don’t get selected for 6 years in the Senate.

  15. rua, you can be 100% certain that if the SDA (the right) and United Voice (the Left) had not done a deal, Bullock would never have been preselected in the #1 spot ahead of Louise Pratt. He got up on the strength of their combined numbers.

  16. [So some speech notes from a never given speech are now to be believed over empirical evidence?]

    Sounds like an administrative stuff up. The wrong speech was distributed to news outlets. It happens.

  17. Obviously the missos didn’t think much of the quality of the soon to be former Senator Pratt given they backed Bullock.

  18. [The share of clean energy sources needs to triple or even quadruple by 2050, relative to 2010, the final draft explains. Delaying emissions reductions beyond 2030 will increase the challenge of bringing down CO2 to a safe level by the end of the century.]

    In the west the current absurd denial and inaction is simply the greedy and destructive baby boomers again behaving as if they own the whole of the past and future and leaving the mess for those that follow them to pick up.

    They will not be a fondly remembered generation.

  19. On Mad as Hell, they just had a clip of Artie saying “I hope that ICAC will get to the truth of the matter”

    and then Shaun added “even if he can’t ember what the truth is”.

  20. [Obviously the missos didn’t think much of the quality of the soon to be former Senator Pratt given they backed Bullock.]

    It is very unlikely the quality of the candidate was in anyway a matter they considered.

  21. [In the west the current absurd denial and inaction is simply the greedy and destructive baby boomers again behaving as if they own the whole of the past and future and leaving the mess for those that follow them to pick up.]

    Yet when you actually put the question to baby boomers about mitigating GHGEs, they will readily admit to your face it’s something worth doing for future generations.

    Maybe it’s a ‘shy Tory’ kind of effect: say one thing to your face because they think it’s socially acceptable while keeping their real thoughts to themselves.

  22. On the Unions are bad theme.

    The IPA’s Chris Berg said on the Drum earlier that the RC into unions is indeed a witch hunt.

    Abbott doing well when the IPA is not covering for him.

  23. [where is this “you have to be a union member to join the ALP” bullshit coming]

    As far as I can see, from inside the party.

  24. One of the comments I heard about the union member rule thing is that its there but never mentioned. Like buggy and whip laws Red Tape

  25. How fuacked are the Labor Party truly when they can’t even clarify their own position on eligibility for memberships?

    Laughable, I’ve got to get a new party to support 😯

  26. WWP

    [In the west the current absurd denial and inaction is simply the greedy and destructive baby boomers again behaving as if they own the whole of the past and future and leaving the mess for those that follow them to pick up.]

    What a horrible bit of age-ism.

    Is this more acceptable?

    [In the west the current absurd denial and inaction is simply the greedy and destructive muslims/Jews again behaving as if they own the whole of the past and future and leaving the mess for those that follow them to pick up.]

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