Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Fortnightly results from Newspoll and Morgan both record shifts to the Coalition, in the former case giving them the lead for the first time in over three months.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.

Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,095 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Josh Bornstein ‏@JoshBBornstein 4m
    The federal ALP needs urgent reform to stop each member of the caucus of 2007-2013 from writing a book.And should be retrospective.
    #auspol

    😆

  2. So the ‘modern’ Coalition Party is the following:

    Censorship, Treat’s everyone as a terrorist (especially Internet users), rolling out bad broadband policy, wanting to give rights holders more power, give ego’s more room to spread their bigotry.

    I think we know the true ‘modern’ Coalition Party.

  3. i never knew you had to be union member to join alp!
    plus what is the entitlement of union organisers and staff to preselection – how is this decided.

    this is a profoundly anti democratic party who support needs to be questioned

    we need a progressive mainstream main party – greens not an option

  4. ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 4:07 pm | PERMALINK
    Abbott had the luxury of dropping tariffs on Japanese cars, because his Govt had just destroyed the Australian Car Industry.

    Did he do it to get more Beef into Japan?
    ———-so now we understand what happened earlier in year to car industry – it was national party deal – liberals really have no commitment to industry – they like business (presumably and esp finance) and agriculture – strange bedfellows … manufacturing is run by socialist workers to hell with it

  5. ru

    [Abbott had the luxury of dropping tariffs on Japanese cars, because his Govt had just destroyed the Australian Car Industry.]

    Evidently it will cost his government $1.2B a year in tariffs.

  6. Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2014 at 4:29 pm | PERMALINK
    ru

    Abbott had the luxury of dropping tariffs on Japanese cars, because his Govt had just destroyed the Australian Car Industry.

    Evidently it will cost his government $1.2B a year in tariffs.
    ———who is counting? abbott’s only reads stats done in chunky graphs — you assumes he can thinks past a headline

  7. [880…..Bushfire Bill]

    The main losers from a limited trade deal are Japanese and Korean consumers. Because of arbitrary price increases (customs duties) imposed on them, they have lower real incomes than would otherwise be the case. As a result, they are also less able to command a share of our economic output (import from us) than would otherwise be the case. Japanese and Korean consumer welfare is the lesser for it.

    By contrast, in the current deals we benefit from price cuts in manufactures (make real income gains) and are able to use more of the production of other economies (their exports) to better satisfy our wants.

    Meanwhile, our exports to Japan and Korea of some commodities will improve, but not by as much as otherwise would be the case. Is this a problem for us? Yes, though not by as much as we might think. What it means is that our economic resources are either going to be deployed to meet our own needs, or, in the case of surplus (export) production, will be deployed to meet the needs of consumers outside Japan and Korea. What we can see is that artificial market barriers distort production. They drive resources and production into other areas, which may be either good or bad for us, but is certainly bad from the viewpoint of potential importers.

    By restraining imports, the Japanese and Korean governments have effectively discriminated against their own citizens, though naturally they would never present it that way.

    It is interesting to speculate about what will happen in the future as agricultural production becomes disrupted by climate change. Doubtless, the barriers to trade in specialty products will be removed completely, in the same way as they have already largely been removed on bulk staples, such as cereals (and other industrial essentials, such as energy products, minerals, fibres and crude materials) in most major markets. Trade liberalisation in agriculture will have the effect of mitigating the income losses we can expect from climate change.

  8. abbott got 3 points in WA from plane down bravura – all stage managed, why else announce in parliament? yes some possibility but he has milked it and he gets pics.

  9. [884
    Fran Barlow

    briefly

    But you remembered the ad. Maybe the whole idea of it is to stimulate attention per se, in which case it worked with you.

    Well yes, assuming the only purpose of the ad was to have it recalled. OTOH what it communicated to me was

    a) very negative
    b) in keeping with an OTT description I might have of typical football viewers or consumers of Fox fare — selfish, reckless people obsessed with banality…]

    the hoon market…not your demographic… 🙂

  10. [i never knew you had to be union member to join alp!]

    You don’t, not in Qld anyway. Plus Qld members elect all party positions including Senators. (except Mayor of Brisbane is restricted to members in the LGA) I wish the media would report facts not fiction.

  11. Did Faulkner or Bracks mention publically the fact Qlnd members “elect all party positions including Senators” ?
    Would add to their push you’d think…

  12. [Would add to their push you’d think…]

    Don’t care what they do, we have been fighting for it for years, it was passed at the last State Conference, when other States catch up is upto them.

  13. 915
    ruawake

    rua, are pre-selections all done by membership ballots? What is the formal role of unions in pre-selections, if any? Can the Admin Committee disallow ballots?

  14. [rua, are pre-selections all done by membership ballots?]

    Yes.

    [What is the formal role of unions in pre-selections]

    None

    [Can the Admin Committee disallow ballots?]

    No, but they can select candidates if time does not allow a ballot.

    Senate positions are a bit different, its is members plus “electoral college” of unions.

    Premier same as Federal Leader.

    Party positions (president etc) members plus electoral college.

  15. http://www.zdnet.com/nbn-switch-without-analysis-about-getting-on-with-it-turnbull-7000028231/

    “Despite years of sledging Labor over its decision not to conduct a cost-benefit analysis before proceeding with the NBN, the decision to proceed with his preferred model for the NBN despite the cost-benefit analysis not being completed was prudent, Turnbull said, adding that the statement could be changed down the track.”

    Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 1m

    Once again, @turnbullmalcolm’s Twitter stream has gone full toxic.

    No ‘surprise’ there, considering this government was suppose to be ‘no surprises’.

  16. Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    Rob Oakeshott ‏@RobOakeshott1 8m

    @visivoz @joshgnosis good point. Just where is that Cost-Benefit Analysis that was the major attack point of the FTTP NBN?

    Hear hear!

  17. What a real FTA looks like. No wonder the negotiations go on so long, the list of goods/products and what happens with them are just for the kiwi list 248 pages long.
    Result so far ? NZ exports to China when signed 2008 $2.1 billion, 2013 $ 10.0 billion .

    Tariffs on kiwi goods

    http://www.chinafta.govt.nz/1-The-agreement/2-Text-of-the-agreement/20-Annexes/0-downloads/China-Tariff-Schedule.pdf

    Tariffs on Chinese goods.

    http://www.chinafta.govt.nz/1-The-agreement/2-Text-of-the-agreement/20-Annexes/0-downloads/China-Tariff-Schedule.pdf

  18. Thanks rua…

    From the QLD-ALP rule book…vote weightings and candidate qualifications…

    [J10 SELECTION OF CANDIDATES FOR THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, THE LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT

    (1) Candidates for the House of Representatives, the Legislative Assembly and the Brisbane City Council shall be selected by a joint vote of the Electoral College and preselection ballot of Branch members in the particular electorate using optional preferential voting with preferences not being distributed until combined with those of the Electoral College.

    (2) The preselection ballot of Branch members shall be valued up to a maximum of 70 per cent of the joint vote depending on the number of formal votes cast by eligible Branch members…

    J11 ELECTORAL COLLEGE

    (1) The Electoral College shall comprise:
    (a) The State President

    (b) (i)in the case of federal elections, where the leader of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party is a Queenslander, the leader or the leader’s nominee, and otherwise a representative of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party chosen by Queensland members of the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party;

    (ii) in the case of state elections, the State Parliamentary Leader or the Leader’s nominee;

    (iii) in the case of Brisbane City Council elections, the leader of the Brisbane Municipal Labor Party or the leader’s nominee; and

    (c) 48 Union members elected by State Conference by proportional representation from Union delegates to State Conference.

    2) A delegate who is unable to attend a meeting of the Electoral College may be represented by a proxy delegate who shall be a financial member of the Party and who shall also be a member of an affiliated Union.

    (3) Electoral College shall be conducted in accordance with the procedures outlined in Appendix Twelve (AP12).]

    [SELECTION OF SENATE CANDIDATES

    (1) Senate candidates shall be elected in accordance with the Direct Election Rule (Rule J17), or by the Administrative Committee in the event of a double dissolution or casual vacancy, and candidates will appear on the Senate team in the order in which they are elected.
    …..
    J17 DIRECT ELECTION RULE

    Direct Election shall be by joint vote of Union conference delegates and plebiscite of eligible Branch members using optional preferential voting with preferences not being distributed until all votes have been combined, in accordance with the relevant rules for nomination and election.

    Each ballot of Branch members and Union delegates shall constitute 50 per cent of the total vote….]

    Union-membership does not apply to ordinary members but does to office bearers and candidates for elective office…

    [QUALIFICATIONS OF CANDIDATES

    …..
    (5) Every nominee who is eligible by occupation to be a member of a Union must be a financial member of a Union covering that calling.
    (6) Candidates for Branch delegate to State Conference must also comply with Rule D1(5) (c).]

    There is a complex set of rules relating to the calculation of vote values to apply in pre-selections.

    [The GRO shall conduct the local preselection ballot and the Electoral College ballot at the same time. The Electoral College ballot shall be counted at the same time as the local preselection ballot is counted.
    …..
    (5) In a pre-selection for a state electorate or BCC Ward the General Returning Officer shall determine the value of the local pre-selection ballot as follows:

    (a) If the number of formal votes cast is 116 or less, no further conversion or recalculation of votes is required.

    (b) if the number of formal votes cast is more than 116 then the branch member ballot result must be converted to an equivalent of 116 votes in accordance with AP12(7).

    (6) In a pre-selection for a federal electorate the General Returning Officer shall determine the value of the local pre-selection ballot as follows:

    (7) The converted votes for each candidate shall be calculated as follows:

    (a) divide 116 or 348, as appropriate, by the
    number of formal votes cast in the ballot to
    obtain the converted value of each vote.
    (b) multiply the votes received by each
    candidate by the converted value calculated in (7)(a) above to obtain the converted vote for each candidate. The total of the converted votes for all candidates should equal 116 or 348 votes, as appropriate.
    (8) The final votes for each candidate, as determined in AP12(5) or AP12(6) above shall be combined with the votes from the Electoral College and the candidate with the majority of the combined votes after the distribution of preferences, if required, shall be declared provisionally elected.]

    So, the weighting gives ordinary members up to 70% of the numbers in preselelctions for candidates for the House of Reps and Legislative Assembly, and 50% for candidates to the Senate.

    I haven’t checked the provisions relating to office bearers.

    Just looking at the rules, obviously the QLD party has gone to great lengths to share and balance power internally. But, inasmuch as one group of voters is structurally advantaged in relation to others, it is still hardly a democratic organ.

  19. Been out all day and just scrolling through the comments re “discrimination for being a woman” When I first went back to work after children I was asked

    No 1) What was I doing with the children, who is looking after them? No I didn’t say I tied them to the clothes line, even though I felt like it. I smiled sweetly and said all taken care of.

    NO 2) I negotiated a 4 day week and was told I would want Monday off to do the washing???? Knowing most public Holidays were on Monday I opted for Friday and did the washing on most days .

    I admit things did get better in later years, especially when we moved first to Canberra then Sydney and I rose through the ranks 😀

  20. 😆

    Mr Carr writes vividly of when Mr Rudd pops into his parliamentary office in October 2012.

    “And then a visitor arrives in my office with the air of a conspiring cardinal on coasters, sniffing out useful heresy: our beloved former prime minister Kevin Rudd, purse-lipped, choirboy hair, speaking in that sinister monotone. A chilling monotone.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bob-carrs-diary-takes-aim-at-julia-gillard-and-kevin-rudd-for-mistakes-20140409-zqsso.html#ixzz2yNKmoYr9

  21. Bob Carr has detailed Kevin Rudd’s reputation for explosive outbursts among the world’s foreign policy elite and widespread dislike of him in the Labor Party, in an extraordinary inside account of his time as foreign minister in a crumbling Labor government.
    Mr Carr’s Diary of a Foreign Minister also reveals how he told Mr Rudd’s prime ministerial rival, Julia Gillard, to step down from the leadership to save her own reputation.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bob-carrs-diary-takes-aim-at-julia-gillard-and-kevin-rudd-for-mistakes-20140409-zqsso.html#ixzz2yNKwdFzG

  22. http://m.cnet.com.au/australians-downloading-more-and-at-greater-speeds-339347031.htm

    “In the three months leading up to 31 December 2013, Australian internet users downloaded 860,000TB of data (823,000TB through fixed line connections and 37,400 via wireless). While that’s a big figure in and of itself, it’s a 55 per cent increase on the volume of data downloaded just one year earlier.”

    “They’re also demanding faster download speeds, with dial-up connections disappearing into the ether and broadband internet access becoming du jour. The number of subscriber connections for broadband speeds above 24Mbps grew significantly over the past year, up from 1.6 million in December 2012 to 2.1 million in December 2013.”

    Demand + Speed.

    And Turnbull just gave a free kick to Anti-Piracy groups.

  23. [As house prices soar to flashing red levels driving up debt to income ratios to nosebleeding levels, there seems to be no end to Australia’s property boom.
    Australian household debt has hit a record 177 per cent of disposable income, with residential property prices equating to 4.3 times annual incomes and 28 times annual rent.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/is-it-a-bubble-16-key-housing-market-questions-20140409-36cjb.html#ixzz2yNNszTJI

  24. Watching Jon Stewart and got a triple 😆 . A Fox News film reviewer in serious tones warned of Russell Crowe’s film “Noah” “This film is not a documentary” .

  25. You would never confide in Bob Carr. The distortion by him would begin forthwith and then the effortless weaving of himself into the narrative as the only one who knows and cares.

  26. It’s a college, comprising capped share of local electors (members) and State Executive, which is itself a college of political and union delegates in which union delegates are assured of a majority in preselections.

    The WA rules are much more simply presented. They can be downloaded at

    http://walabor.org.au/2013drafts

    [15.2 Legislative Assembly and House of Representatives.

    15.2.8 In counting a preselection ballot in which the votes of Local Electors are included, the Returning Officer shall first count the votes of the Local Electors and shall allocate a value to each valid vote. Where there are less than eighty votes cast by Local Electors, each vote shall have a value of a whole vote. Where there are more than eighty valid votes cast by Local Electors, each vote shall have a value determined by dividing eighty by the number of valid votes. The Returning Officer shall then count the whole of the ballot, with each vote cast by the members of State Executive being worth a whole vote.]

    That is, local electors + State Executive, which comprises:

    [Political Delegates
    6.3.1.1 All members of the Administrative Committee.
    6.3.1.2 80 Political delegates to the State Executive, made up of:
    • One delegate from the FPLP (WA)
    • One delegate from the SPLP
    • The remaining delegates elected by Electorate Councils.
    • In addition to the 80 political delegates, AYL (WA) is
    entitled to two (2) ex-officio (non-voting) State Executive members to be elected at the AYL (WA) AGM.
    and

    Union Delegates
    6.3.2.1 80 Union delegates from affiliated Unions provided that this number shall be 160 for the purposes of Legislative Assembly and House of Representatives preselections under rule 15.2.]

    The system concentrates the power of some and dilutes that of others.

  27. Unemployment still at 6% despite adding 11,000 jobs added in March(which is still below required at least 18,000 per month, 7,000 less).

  28. BK

    Especially as the comment was prompted by it not being “literal” enough .

    Hilariousment No.2 came from the Colbert Report bit about the “Ukraine Crisis” . A news site had a world map showing where Americans thought the Ukraine was. A number chose Australia 🙂 Funny in a sad way was that there was a strong correlation between those who did not know where it was were far more likely to support military intervention by the US.

  29. rua….

    To be eligible for preselection all that is required is to be a party member. It is not difficult to join the party, though if there is a union covering your occupation you are expected to join it.

    [Eligible Nominations
    15.5.1 A member who nominates for a seat must:
    • Complete and sign a prescribed nomination form provided by the State Secretary;
    • Be a financial member of the ALP for at least twelve (12) months before the nomination;
    • Be eligible under law to nominate as a candidate for the seat, and
    • Sign the parliamentary candidate’s pledge. (See Appendix 7)
    15.5.2 The State Executive may waive the twelve month eligibility criteria set out in 15.5.1, where it is deemed to be in the Party’s interests.]

    (The parliamentary pledge is not unusual in any way.)

  30. Rua….

    [INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS 4.1 Joining the Party
    4.1.1 Any person resident in the State of Western Australia over the age of sixteen years, who signs the Application for Membership Form ….may apply to join the Party….]

    Membership can be accepted in various ways, but…

    [Rejection of Application
    • A membership application will be rejected if the applicant:
    • Is a member of another political party or auxiliary;
    • Is a member of a proscribed organisation;
    • Is not a member of an Affiliated Union when eligible to be so;
    • Has failed to pay the requisite membership fee; or
    • Has previously had their application rejected by another Party unit.]

  31. briefly

    So this “must be a union member” does not apply in WA or Qld. Hey Bludgers in other states does it occur in your back yards?

  32. Just checked NSW, no union membership required, although it does say “If I employ labour, I will actively encourage trade union membership.”.

    So this seems to be a bit of bullshite.

    Vic Next.

  33. Yep no union membership required in Victoria either, although union members get a $5 discount on yearly fees.

    Maybe Tasmania

  34. ru

    Looks like it’s a Liberal/media plot. In the new group think unions = bad & you must be a member of a union to be in the Labor party thus Labor = bad.

    Works for the numpties. 😛

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