Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Fortnightly results from Newspoll and Morgan both record shifts to the Coalition, in the former case giving them the lead for the first time in over three months.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition in the lead for the first time since late November, their lead of 51-49 comparing with Labor’s 52-48 lead in the poll of a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up three), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down two). More to follow. UPDATE: Tony Abbott’s net approval improves slightly with approval steady on 40% and disapproval down three to 47%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 31% and down one to 42%. There is also a less decisive result on preferred prime minister, with Abbott down two to 41% and Shorten down three to 33%. The Australian’s report here.

Morgan had its fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll out today, encompassing 2869 respondents over the past two weekends. It too has Labor losing ground on the previous poll, down from 54-46 ahead on respondent-allocated preferences to 51.5-48.5 (and on previous election preferences, 53.5-46.5 to 52-48), from primary votes of 34.5% for Labor (down four), 38.5% for the Coalition (up half a point), 12% for the Greens (up one point) and 5% for Palmer United (up half).

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s Essential Research fortnightly average records very little change, with Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United, the only change there being a one point drop for Labor. Also featured are the monthly leaders ratings, which have Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 41% and steady on disapproval at 47%, Bill Shorten up two to 32% and down one to 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 39-33 to 42-32. Other questions find 25% support for the privatisation of Medibank Private and 46% opposition, 61% expecting it would cause health insurance fees to increase against just 3% who think they would decrease, and 25% approving of the sale of government assets to fund new infrastructure against 58% disapproving. A semi-regular question on climate change finds 56% thinking it caused by human activity, up five on January, with 34% favouring the more skeptical response, down five.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,095 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Diogenes

    It probably is near the best we could do. It is the hype vs the reality that grates. Especially with the Coalition’s sole “achievement” seems to have been waving through what hat been called “sticking points” .
    Not mention it being called a “Free Trade Agreement” .

  2. Also I am jealous of those who can write quickly and yet precisely and correctly. When I get into a quick discussion here my english accuracy is the first victim.

  3. [ Gillard’s memory in politics will not be a good one. The best that would be said about her is that she was a good administrator. ]

    Your wish-fulfillment fantasies are rotting your brain, TP.

  5. davidwh – there is a middle ground that most of us inhabit.

    No one is perfect.

    As you say, the purpose of language is communication, and if what is being said is clear then the primary purpose is being met whether or not spelling or grammar is perfect.

    However, there is also no question that when errors become frequent and obtrusive that, as a reader, it gets to a point where the level of confusion introduced by the errors makes reading a chore. Yes, you can struggle through to extract the meaning, but if reading something is actually confronting due to its errors and there are many things to read, people will choose to read the stuff that is well presented and skip over the stuff that is poorly presented. That’s just the way the world works.

    Of more significance in the issue of communication is where some subtle point is being made. When you are using the natural redundancy of language to correct (as a reader) the superficial spelling/grammar errors it means there is no certainty or confidence left over to confirm more subtle/deeper points being made.

    People can dismiss criticism of apostrophe usage or spelling or word usage all they like, but ultimately the more rigorous and accurate you are in constructing what you write, the more effort people will put in to trying to really understand what it is you are trying to say.

  6. It’s easy to argue that any criticism of this government by Labor supporters is sour grapes.

    I suspect that it’s even easier when that criticism disagrees with one’s own opinion.

    Well, I suppose it’s just a matter of ego. We all tend to hold our own opinion as the standard by which we judge others’ opinions :P.

  7. Diogenes@795

    If even Craig Emerson has praised the FTA with Japan, it’s surely just partisan sour grapes for Labor supporters to whinge about it.

    The deal also won endorsement from former Labor government trade minister Craig Emerson, who praised Mr Robb and Tony Abbott and said it was “the best Australia could have achieved’’.

    I would suggest Emerson has jumped the gun and we should wait until all the details are known.

    A lot of criticism has already emerged from various industries.

  10. Given Emo was Gillard’s Trade Minister, he’s in a much better position than any of us to judge what was possible in the FTA.

  11. DN been meaning to catch up. I do believe that concern you had over the Japanese PFTA in relation to overseas firms being able to take legal action against our governments and agencies is not included in the agreement.

  12. @Jackol/805

    No deeper meaning?

    At what point does ones blood boil over the hypercritical of such policy changes like NBN to have a deeper meaning?

    ‘no certainty or confidence left “

  13. If an individual’s criteria had been set out clearly beforehand and applied unfairly (or adjusted) after the fact, then at least there’d be no need for mere suspicions.

    A pity nobody thought to establish such criteria beforehand and must now settle for sniping based on a whole lot of assumptions of what’s going on in other people’s heads, eh?

  16. Thomas. Paine.@799

    on about Ms Gillard – she’ll be remembered by the progressive left as a great PM brought down by Rudd, right wing traitors in the party, and a far right backlash in the media, industry and LNP. Rudd will be remembered as another Billy Hughes – a labor party rat who stood for nothing but his own egomania.


    You honestly believe this, or just pandering to your own fantasies?

    Gillard’s only political legacy and memory will be that she was the front-person of the factions that destroyed Labor.

    Part of a long term plan to execute a coup against a first term PM for the sole purpose of shoring up factional powers. Thats it, and that is what it was all about.

    Then the political historians will talk about her and her factional backers sin of hanging onto power when it was plainly obvious the public did not want her, and that the party’s poor showing was directly related to remaining PM.

    Gillard will be the symbol of Labor’s self destruction through arrogance to the public and democracy.

    The discussion will also observe that if the party had not destroyed itself via Gillard then Labor would have retained power for another two terms and there would have been no Abbott government.

    Gillard’s memory in politics will not be a good one. The best that would be said about her is that she was a good administrator.

    Very well said TP.

  19. Dio, I see.

    *Labor* supporters criticising the result is sour grapes from a bunch of blind, partisan sheep. Ignoring Emerson, a *Labor* politician, in order to continue that partisan sour grapes must surely be some sign of insanity!

  20. bemused

    It would be interesting to find out, not that we will , what the “sticking points” that got waved through were. As for the industry disappointment. They quite understandably got the wrong impression from the thunderous rendition of Hallelujah by the meeja and Coalition when the miracle of St Tony of FTA was revealed.

  21. Diogenes@810

    Given Emo was Gillard’s Trade Minister, he’s in a much better position than any of us to judge what was possible in the FTA.

    So he had a lot of emotional commitment to it. Maybe that clouds his judgement.

    Poroti @ 801 is right.

    Also, if you can’t get a good agreement by negotiation, then you have to be prepared to walk away from it and not just cave in and accept the few crumbs offered.

  22. [*Labor* supporters criticising the result is sour grapes from a bunch of blind, partisan sheep. Ignoring Emerson, a *Labor* politician, in order to continue that partisan sour grapes must surely be some sign of insanity!]

    No just more evidence of bitterness and an unwillingness to recognise anything good if Abbott does it.

    Emerson would know a lot more about it than any of you.

    People here are so bitter and consumed by hatred of Abbott that they are no longer objective.

  23. poroti –

    It is the hype vs the reality that grates.

    Of course it grates, but this is politics and to think that Abbott, in particular, wouldn’t blow this out of all proportion and claim any and all glory possible … inconceivable.

    It’s just hard to see how the Japanese FTA is “bad” or “dodgy” as some here have claimed. Sure some industries are disappointed, but how is this FTA deceptive or damaging to Australian interests?

    It would be interesting to find out, not that we will , what the “sticking points” that got waved through were.

    Speaking of ‘damaging to Australian interests’ – I actually think the car industry probably was the sticking point for the ALP (well, and the ISDS in the South Korean deal). The ALP was actually willing to fight to keep a car manufacturing industry in this country so signing off on the dropping of the 5% tariffs from Japan and South Korea may well have been where they drew the line or required much bigger concessions from the Japanese/Koreans.

    The LNP, having killed off the car industry, had no such issues.

    I would hope that Emerson or someone on the ALP side would be able to comment on this down the track …

  24. @Dio/822

    So how are the farmers going to gain out these trade deals?

    Remember, these are the same type of people who have criticized over the Trade Pacific Agreement (or TPP).

    Take for example, the latest, it’s USA vs Australia:
    http://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/news/agriculture/agribusiness/general-news/aus-undercutting-tpp-us-farmers/2694676.aspx

    “THE Australia-Japan trade deal has thrown into confusion talks on a Pacific regional trade agreement as farm interests in the United States accuse Australia of undercutting their negotiating position. “

  25. For the record, I haven’t said this FTA is any kind of failure and certainly the negative things I was concerned about are not in it, so my opinion is that the result is neutral, at the very least.

    Sure, I don’t know enough to judge any more than that, but all that means is that while I don’t think it was failure (based on my original concners), neither can I judge whether it was a success.

  26. Diog

    Senator Wong commented on Emerson’s tweet last night.

    My take is its good an agreement was reached that does not cost is a lot. That is none of the Japanese corporations being able to undermine Australia Consumer Law.

    I tend to Dr Emerson’s view looking at it that way. However I can see the valid disappointment of the likes of the sugar industry for example. Those things are where Labor is justly saying more could have been done

  27. Dio, those are merely your suspicions. One thing about being unqualified to comment is that we’re also not qualified to comment on others’ qualifications.

  28. Nice that ABC-24 left the Human Rights Commissioner (whose microphone was flaky at best), for Angus Houston, so he could tell us all… they’re still looking.

    Lovely! I’m happy for him.

    Then, no return to the HRC, but instead a Hero Video of “Tony Abbott FACING UP TO THE MORTAL ENEMY”.

    Take out statement from our Warrior PM?

    “There are Goodies and Baddies. Over there you will see the Baddies. Meanwhile, we’re on the Goodies side.”

    Makes this international relations stuff look simple, doesn’t he?

    Go up to the window. Stare an NK robo-soldier in the face, and seem him shake in his boots. Then turn around and tell us about Goodies and Baddies.

    Why didn’t Rudd or Gillard do this?

    I’m expecting Peace In Our Time any day now.

    At least, watching the ABC-24 coverage makes it look a dead cert.

    OK, so Tony’s plane broke down, but did we hear “Tony’s Abbott’s trip has been a train plane wreck. Ha-ha!”

    Did we read Michelle Grattan articles about the broken down plane being a “metaphor” for Abbott’s losing position in the polls? Riffing of the word “Stalled”? in articles by Grattan?

    Did Mark Kenny tell us that, sadly (sob), this trip would now be remembered for the bodgy 737, not the triumph of the two SFAs FTAs?

    OF COURSE NOT!

    I mean, what’s a broken down 737 that, if it broke down in the air could have killed a good portion of our senior media and business elites (hmmmmm….), or… gasp!… another Gillard SHOE MALFUNCTION?

    Tony Abbott is a genius. He can sign trade agreements AND find downed 777s. Sheesh.

    Look… just watch ABC-24 and they’ll fill in all the “context” gaps for the punters out there.

    I rest my case.

    Thanks youse.

  29. THE Australia-Japan trade deal has thrown into confusion talks on a Pacific regional trade agreement as farm interests in the United States accuse Australia of undercutting their negotiating position.

    Hey, if the Japanese FTA with Australia sets the cat among the pigeons in the TPP negotiations causing the TPP to stall or fail, that’s what I’d call a big win…

  31. Unless you can find some way to test their efficacy – by having them go negotiate some FTAs and see if they do any better, say.

  32. [No just more evidence of bitterness and an unwillingness to recognise anything good if Abbott does it.]

    Abbott didn’t “do” it. Labor did 95% of it, and then caved in and signed off on a deal that is attracting complaints from the very industry groups it was supposed to be helping.”

    His response?

    “Suck it up princesses.”

  33. Dio @ 830
    And? You’re dismissing the opinion of those people, why? A good reason would be nice. Was the “more” they wanted unreasonable?

  34. guytayr@804
    Morrison & Co will be even more desperate to keep Manus Island ( & Cambodia) solutions out of court.
    Secrecy is their only hope, it is also their weakness once it gets to court, duty of care & all that.

  35. [800….davidwh]

    I’m with you, d.

    The only other thing I would add is that brevity often adds to clarity, making it easier for writers to convey their ideas. In any case, simplicity should be preferred for its beauty.

  38. sceptic

    Yes the decisions of courts on these offshore arrangements was always up for challenge.

    Under the Morrison regime making Labor look like human rights commissioners by comparison, I think courts will rule against the government because events have made the safety factor very stark

  39. Jackol

    [negotiations causing the TPP to stall or fail, ]

    Howard was sensible enough to walk quietly away when the public became aware and a little alarmed over the implications of the TPP . Not sure PMBO will be so sensible.

  40. [829
    Jackol

    THE Australia-Japan trade deal has thrown into confusion talks on a Pacific regional trade agreement as farm interests in the United States accuse Australia of undercutting their negotiating position.

    Hey, if the Japanese FTA with Australia sets the cat among the pigeons in the TPP negotiations causing the TPP to stall or fail, that’s what I’d call a big win…]

    HAHA. That is a risible grizzle from Agriculture-USA, who are the biggest subsidy-gobbling protectionists of all time. If Australian exporters gain an advantage in relation to their US competitors, so much the better. But more than likely, Japan will offer at-least matching tariff reductions to the US and other economies. So they should, as this will improve the incomes of Japanese households and help propel liberalisation of their economy in other ways.

  41. [837
    zoidlord

    @Jackol/829

    TPP is still moving, unfortunatly.]

    The US Congress has really obstructed the pathway to the TPP. It is really highly unlikely to get up anytime soon.

  42. But more than likely, Japan will offer at-least matching tariff reductions to the US and other economies.

    Yes, that is what I would assume as well. If the Japanese agricultural lobby has swallowed these concessions to us, they’ll do so for everyone else as well.

    It does, though, undermine the push for the TPP at least a little simply because if concessions are being made on a bilateral basis the question becomes what real gains are there to be had for countries joining up to the TPP?

    Certainly Australia appears to gain close to nothing from the TPP as far as I can tell.

  44. 2:09pm: We’re back after lunch. Counsel assisting ICAC, Geoffrey Watson, SC, is asking about a February 2008 meeting between Eddie Obeid, former treasurer Michael Costa and the then chief executive of Australian Water, Nick Di Girolamo.
    Watson says that Mr Obeid’s youngest son Eddie junior had been working at the company for about a year at that stage – something that doesn’t seem to have come up at the meeting.
    Could it have been a secret to Eddie?

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-eddie-obeid-in-the-witness-box-20140409-36bvm.html#ixzz2yMMAN28x

  47. [832
    Bushfire Bill

    No just more evidence of bitterness and an unwillingness to recognise anything good if Abbott does it.

    Abbott didn’t “do” it. Labor did 95% of it, and then caved in and signed off on a deal that is attracting complaints from the very industry groups it was supposed to be helping.”

    His response?

    “Suck it up princesses.”]

    The only thing Australia had to offer of any substance are the tariffs on motor vehicles. As long as auto-making was to continue here, there was no way Australia could bargain away the tariffs. But since auto-making will cease, the tariff is an obvious bargaining chip.

    Giving up the tariff on vehicles is in the interests of Australian consumers and would most likely happen anyway. So getting improved access for agricultural products is a way of getting something for nothing.

    But it’s all small time. Two-way trade between Australia and Japan is falling. It will probably continue to shrink as Japan’s economy is re-organised and their manufacturers are gradually displaced from global export markets.

  50. Completely off topic but I just had the video of Ludlum’s questions re Housing set to me. Sinodinos looks so smug and arrogant – as a Minister he says nothing is beneath him. Prophetic words?!! Good questions from Ludlum.

    [Senator LUDLAM: By attacking unions. I cannot believe you just did that. That is beneath you, Senator Sinodinos.

    Senator Sinodinos: As a minister, nothing is beneath me, I don’t think.

    Senator LUDLAM: Now we have that on the record.

    Senator Sinodinos: You asked me about policy; I gave you a policy.

    Senator WONG: Senator, did you say that as a minister nothing is beneath you?

    Senator LUDLAM: He did. Hansard has that.

    Senator WONG: That is somewhat indicative of the attitude-and the arrogance, I have to say-that we see-

    CHAIR: Senator Wong, you do not have the call.

    Senator WONG: Seriously, I thought you were a bit better. I really did.]

    http://scott-ludlam.greensmps.org.au/content/estimates/fiscal-treasury-group-housing-and-axing-housing-supply-council

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