BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

After last week’s lurch to the Coalition, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back where it was a fortnight ago after three stronger poll results for Labor, most notably from Newspoll.

The BludgerTrack yo-yo moves in Labor’s direction this week, returning to almost exactly where it was a fortnight ago after lurching to 50.1-49.9 in favour of the Coalition last week. The movement last week was driven by a 51-49 lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, while this week’s comes on the back of three strong results for Labor from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, with the former having the greatest weight in the model. The primary vote results are notable for having the Greens at a new high for the current term, and a look at the charts suggests the recent move in their favour is more than just statistical noise.

On the seat projection, Labor is up 11 this week after losing 10 last week, the distribution of gains being two from New South Wales, one from Victoria, four from Queensland, two from Western Australia and one each from South Australia and the Northern Territory. This is the second week in a row that four seats have shifted on the Queensland projection, emphasising the point that the state remains a target-rich environment for marginal seats. Newspoll also provides a new set of results for leadership ratings, which produce only negligible shifts on last week’s numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,122 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 62 of 63
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  1. [ Spending over a million dollars on legals by the church to defeat a valid $100,000 claim speaks volumes. ]

    If nothing else, Pell was a canny investor.

    Hence his new appointment.

  2. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 3m

    The local copper network shat itself to the point where DSL became unviable. Go Malcolm!

    😀

  3. [3052
    zoidlord

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 3m

    The local copper network shat itself to the point where DSL became unviable. Go Malcolm!]

    The LNP will do to broadband what they have done to everything else they touch: completely stuff it up.

  4. [3053
    confessions

    briefly:

    First rains are always good, aren’t they?]

    Marvelous, especially here on the west coast where we seem to be perennially dry.

  5. [ Player One
    Posted Saturday, March 29, 2014 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

    Spending over a million dollars on legals by the church to defeat a valid $100,000 claim speaks volumes.

    If nothing else, Pell was a canny investor. ]

    Its the ‘if nothing else’ where the problems arise.

    Either the victims of his organisation should be treated in terms of its teachings OR the church’s bank balance are more important.

    We both know what decision was made.

    Pell made a penny wise, but pounds foolish decision in both monetary and reputational basis.

    A powerful message to the flock. ie you are all expendable and we will fleece you as and when we see fit.

    Best thing is he goes to Rome and stays there.

  6. guytaur:

    Sorry, sometimes I forget here that I’m not actually looking at people, and don’t actually know youse all!

    Plus I’m cooking and tend to get lost in that buzz.

  7. [3058
    dave

    Pell made a penny wise, but pounds foolish decision in both monetary and reputational basis.

    A powerful message to the flock. ie you are all expendable and we will fleece you as and when we see fit.

    Best thing is he goes to Rome and stays there.]

    Pell should be retired but instead he has effectively been promoted.

  8. briefly

    I’m happy as long as he says away.

    But I still don’t believe they will allow themselves to be ‘readily’ sued.

    Money still No 1 for them no matter what they say.

  9. [Best thing is he goes to Rome and stays there.]

    I agree, but there’s a part of me that doesn’t. He’s getting a promotion to the Vatican when we know he doesn’t deserve it. What damage can the man do to abuse victims from an even more powerful position in the heart of the organisation?

    It shits me that people like him continue to get away with their trangressions. The more they cover up for their employer, the more they are rewarded. It just ain’t right.

  10. Player One

    Pell spent $1 million + not defending a claim of $100,000 from Ellis but a precedent that could cost $100 million + ….. he won the first & lost the second….

    He was quizzed about Vicarious Liability in the RC, he knew of it & he thought it shouldn’t apply to the Church.
    Pell & his legal advisers refused to nominate the entity that Ellis should sue, given the plethora of ” shell organisation” the church operates, Ellis got the wrong one.

    During the RC Pell gave the game away on that score & as much as said that were all the same entity .this will come back to haunt him …
    Low life

  11. Good night

    Footy game exciting towards pointy end so going to watch.

    See you tomorrow morning.

    Confessions enjoy your meal 🙂

  12. guytaur:

    Some of us have known each other in commenter terms for years. I was shocked to read the other day that victoria’s daughter was finishing university. I remember victoria posting when she first started!

    Births, deaths, marriages, divorces, relationship clusterf*cks, ailing relatives, prem grandchildren, family and household tragedy. We’ve seen and shared it all, and all through the prism of politics and electoral systems. Is there any space on the internet which possibly compares? I’m yet to see it.

  13. [ confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 29, 2014 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    It shits me that people like him continue to get away with their trangressions. The more they cover up for their employer, the more they are rewarded. It just ain’t right. ]

    Yes. His reputation is truly shot through the melon here in Sydney and probably Australia.

    Others as well, salvos etc.

    Parents , grand parents etc were committed Catholics, but quiet about it, not showy, they detested those who wore religion on their sleeves.

    Better they didn’t see all of this. Better they are gone – it would have devastated them.

    How Pell can live with such a breach of trust is beyond me.

  14. Another thought on Pell’s motives in the RC

    He mentioned under examination about future claims…. That claimants should be able to sue & that past claimants should be able to get compensation from a Government Church joint fund….. typical,…
    He knows the majority of claims have been made ( & those claimants signed release ?)

    Pell just another Corporate Capitalist…. privatise the profits nationalise the losses

  15. [The LNP will do to broadband what they have done to everything else they touch: completely stuff it up.]

    Maybe we should nickname Turnbull as Errol (after Errorl Flynn) because “everyone he touched, he f..ked”

  16. [2548
    zoomster

    Abbott: But they’re girls. I don’t want to live in a house full of girls. Cooties.

    Credlin: I’m a girl.

    Abbott: Really? But you’re tall.]

    He he he…

  17. dave:

    This probably won’t go down well with some, but it absolutely sickens me to see comments here defending, and looking to excuse the catholic church over its role in covering up the sexual abuse by its own members.

    I mean, how on earth does one respond to that shit? I have no clue.

  18. [3064
    confessions

    What damage can the man do to….It shits me that people like him continue to get away with their trangressions. The more they cover up for their employer, the more they are rewarded…]

    You’re quite right to use this terminology, confessions. Pell is a man who works for a global organisation. He might like to be seen as something of a more rarefied order, but he is like any other person doing an executive job. He has accepted these responsibilities should be held to account in the same way as anyone else.

  19. [2966
    WeWantPaul

    And as for the church batting at a higher average than your average human organisation, because they preach morality, well you’ll find rare pockets that do, but on the whole the history of organised churches tells you that you would be an absolute fool to expect it.]

    So why then do churches get privileged treatment?

    If they are going to set themselves up as the standard bearers of morality (with the implicit ‘right’ to lecture from on high the rest of us about our alleged moral inadequacy), then they sure as shit better actually live up to a higher standard themselves.

    Otherwise they are just the same as the rest of us, and hence undeserving of any special deference or protected status – legal, political, social, or moral. (And don’t get me started about the utterly bogus tax-exempt status religion enjoys, which gives it a serious advantage in hording wealth and buying influence.)

    Your defence of the Catholic church here today over this issue has been self-pitying, pathetic, and contemptible – straight out of the Gerard Henderson school of Catholic victimhood whining.

    The Catholic church messed up big time, by every measure of basic law and human decency, despite overly generous opportunities from the rest of us, over a long period of time, for them to do the right thing. It is only in this situation because of its own persistent and despicable failure to properly face up to this fundamental moral lapse within itself, leaving the rest of us no choice but to clean up the filthy mess, a task I can assure you in which we take no pleasure in at all.

    So cop it sweet, and be damn grateful we do have functioning due process in this society that does give you a fair hearing.

  20. [I mean, how on earth does one respond to that shit? I have no clue. ]

    Well in 15 – 20 years time, plus there won’t be many Australian
    priest alive. Most country areas will need to come up with women as priests or some sort of lay alternative.

    Go to a country area these days, and priests spend a whole lot of time burying people and saying masses for them. Terrible lives for them. Day in day out.

    The main centres will probably have overseas clergy – hopefully not kicked out of their own countries because of the same sort of thing we have seen here.

  21. I feel so sorry for the families, friends and relatives of all those missing on the Malaysian Plane.

    But gee I wish they would hurry up and find something because I am well and truly over the meejah reporting of the disappearance and subsequent search.

    Everytime a plane lands at Pearce in WA they roll out another Bimbo with a report on nothing.

  22. [Pell is a man who works for a global organisation. He might like to be seen as something of a more rarefied order, but he is like any other person doing an executive job.]

    Yeah, hence my analogy with the executives at James Hardie. Or even the tobacco industry. It’s all the same corporate PR games.

  23. Tricot 3003 (+Poroti et ‘fess)

    Slight correction to views on Perth drivers…

    [And as poroti mentioned, the local morons can’t cope with wet roads.

    However, it is a long time since we have had any and Perth drivers have very short memories.]

    😀

  24. As per above article. How offensive

    [The Indonesia Institute, a Perth-based think tank, says carers from countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines should be allowed to come to Australia and mind children for $200 a week to help ease pressure on family budgets.
    Under the scheme families would provide their Asian child carers with accommodation, clothing and medical insurance. The nannies would be entitled to Sundays off and a return airfare home for two weeks each year]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/call-for-asian-nannies-to-reduce-childcare-costs-20140328-35oln.html#ixzz2xLjiyqHo

  25. Just Me

    [The Catholic church messed up big time, by every measure of basic law and human decency, despite overly generous opportunities from the rest of us, over a long period of time, for them to do the right thing. It is only in this situation because of its own persistent and despicable failure to properly face up to this fundamental moral lapse within itself, leaving the rest of us no choice but to clean up the filthy mess, a task I can assure you in which we take no pleasure in at all.]

    While I have no personal knowledge of abuse, I was brought up a Catholic and was in religious institutions for many years. I would say that a problem (in the 70’s and before) in Catholic institutions was an absolutely terrible culture of Authority.

    If one raised a question about the behaviour of anyone in Authority or even anyone senior the normal response was always “offer it up”, i.e. as a sacrifice to God.

    Any discomfort, or worse, with the status quo was always seen as an imperfection in the questioner.

    Such an attitude does not lead to “holiness” but to guilt in the questioner and to immaturity in the people in authority.

  26. [3089
    victoria

    The Indonesia Institute, a Perth-based think tank]

    Think tank? What is a think tank these days? A barrel of unwanted thoughts? A lucky dip or a bubble bath? A bird bath? A cognitive jacuzzi?

  27. victoria

    [The Indonesia Institute, a Perth-based think tank, says carers from countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines should be allowed to come to Australia and mind children for $200 a week to help ease pressure on family budgets.
    Under the scheme families would provide their Asian child carers with accommodation, clothing and medical insurance. The nannies would be entitled to Sundays off and a return airfare home for two weeks each year.]

    It is not just offensive, it is obscene, on so many levels.

    Because of that, I am sure it will be blue Tory policy soon.

    Everything, et al, will thrill to think they can get almost slaves again.

  28. [Adelaide loses and Collingwood wins. Does it get any better?]

    Abbott not being PM and not having wall to wall Liberal governments?

  29. hmmm…a think tank…I want one for my birthday…inflatable, in many colours (like Joseph’s coat)…I wonder if there is an app for fresh towels…

  30. victoria, if true, the offensive basis for it is:

    […to help ease pressure on family budgets.]

    It assumes that Australians have no duty to develop policies to relieve any “strain” on anything. How appalling.

    It is an accurate expression of the selfishness and self-indulgence of contemporary Australia.

    But maybe it is just a joke. I hope so.

    Though I have met blue Tories who think like that about their fellow humans.

  31. For those interested

    [Tune into #insiders tmrw w @PhillipCoorey @JacquelineMaley & @dwabriz. Barrie Cassidy interviews @MathiasCormann. Talking Pics w Gary Ramage]

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