BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

After last week’s lurch to the Coalition, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back where it was a fortnight ago after three stronger poll results for Labor, most notably from Newspoll.

The BludgerTrack yo-yo moves in Labor’s direction this week, returning to almost exactly where it was a fortnight ago after lurching to 50.1-49.9 in favour of the Coalition last week. The movement last week was driven by a 51-49 lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, while this week’s comes on the back of three strong results for Labor from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, with the former having the greatest weight in the model. The primary vote results are notable for having the Greens at a new high for the current term, and a look at the charts suggests the recent move in their favour is more than just statistical noise.

On the seat projection, Labor is up 11 this week after losing 10 last week, the distribution of gains being two from New South Wales, one from Victoria, four from Queensland, two from Western Australia and one each from South Australia and the Northern Territory. This is the second week in a row that four seats have shifted on the Queensland projection, emphasising the point that the state remains a target-rich environment for marginal seats. Newspoll also provides a new set of results for leadership ratings, which produce only negligible shifts on last week’s numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,122 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

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  2. In any real modern war with Spain, British forces on Gib would be rendered inopertive very quickly. When they used to get cranky about Gib, the Spaniards would line up lots of 155mm guns on the heights opposite.

    But since they are NATO allies this is unlikely to happen.

    In the interim, it suits the West very nicely for GB to sit athwart one of the world’s major choke points, listening carefully to soviet subs as the scoot out and in.

    The other ‘problem’ in separating Gib from GB is the Gib Rats who know that they are onto a good thing.

    Plus, it suits British twitchers to ‘own’ one of the truly great spots for watching migratory raptors.

  4. [The point is that the Church used its financial resources to evade possible responsibility for actions taken by one of its clerics. Ellis lost, but his case may also mean that no other plaintiff will be able to sue the Catholic Church or possibly other Churches too, no matter how egregious the circumstances. Considering the special position of trust Churches (or mosques and temples) have, this is a legal oddity that should be rectified. Hopefully the RC will make such a recommendation.]

    Well I think you have underlined beautifully my point. Organisations will almost always do everything they can to ensure that moral failings do not end up with legal and financial penalties.

    Disgusting yes, but our whole society works like this everywhere, and in many places and in many organisations (like companies) the behaviour is applauded, or at least considered decent and normal – “protecting the stakeholders”.

    But equally we can’t have a law that penalises everyone with moral failings, or we would all be in jail.

    The amount of compensation, and the structure of organisations is a very difficult question. Do we have a situation where getting raped at a local independent church gets you nothing, but you are an instant millionaire if you are raped by a catholic?

    Are we going to apply the same kind of ‘look through’ principals to companies and wealthy people (oh that isn’t my money it is in a trust).

    While I support a sensible fair monetary compensation, I think for future victims it is the very least important consideration of the RC.

  5. Boerwar

    [About the only roman catholic who can stand him is Abbott.]
    Could be some synchronicity there. He is Abbott’s personal confessor as nobody else would take the job.

  6. Weasel words WWP.

    No one is suggesting that Pell or the hierachy are child abusers, its the case that the hierachy knew that the claims were worth millions AND set up the MELBOURNE RESPONSE to minimise the payouts SUCCESSFULLY.

    Thats what is so disgusting about this! You simply cannot excuse this with such a weak relativist argument – especially for an organisation which prides itself on preaching the absolute truth!

  11. [Weasel words WWP.]

    Depends if you are hell bent of the financial destruction of the Catholic church or actually care something about the victims really.

  12. BW –

    [ In the interim, it suits the West very nicely for GB to sit athwart one of the world’s major choke points, listening carefully to soviet subs as the scoot out and in.]

    For over 40 years the US etc have had listening devices all over in the sea and on sea beds, the Greenland UK Gap for soviet subs coming from and returning to Russia – and most other places – the Med, of course.

    The sounds are matched to an audio library indicating sub type and even individual subs if they make too much noise.

    As we have discussed before the utter importance of subs – particularly currently.

  13. WWP

    I am Catholic as is my whole family but Pell is almost universally loathed.

    I think Pope Francis is putting Pell in the right place by putting his into Treasury at the Vatican. Out of sight out of mind.

    There is something about Pell that doesn’t ring true, He is obstinate and silly as it sounds has a terribly weak face.

    He is incapable of showing any compassion.

    What has gone on is not the fault of Pell alone but includes those he has around him they have an arrogant approach to those they have hurt so severely.

    Most of my family and friends cannot bear him.

    The pomposity and arrogance shown by all of them is an embarrassment to the whole church.

    You can’t be the representative of God and carry on the way they do.

    Suffer the little children and their families.

  14. WWP

    I am Catholic as is my whole family but Pell is almost universally loathed.

    I think Pope Francis is putting Pell in the right place by putting his into Treasury at the Vatican. Out of sight out of mind.

    There is something about Pell that doesn’t ring true, He is obstinate and silly as it sounds has a terribly weak face.

    He is incapable of showing any compassion.

    What has gone on is not the fault of Pell alone but includes those he has around him they have an arrogant approach to those they have hurt so severely.

    Most of my family and friends cannot bear him.

    The pomposity and arrogance shown by all of them is an embarrassment to the whole church.

    You can’t be the representative of God and carry on the way they do.

    Suffer the little children and their families.

  16. And as for the church batting at a higher average than your average human organisation, because they preach morality, well you’ll find rare pockets that do, but on the whole the history of organised churches tells you that you would be an absolute fool to expect it.

  18. WeWantPaul

    Have you listened to the RC or read the transcripts of evidence?
    http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/public-hearings/transcripts/
    It’s Case Study 8…..

    I think you have made many ridicules statements here
    Firstly Pell is not accompany director in this case, even if he were he & his legal council have abused the legal process in defending the case against Ellis to the hilt!

    Commisioner McCleland question Pell on the principal of being a model litigant in the case , through that question gift was obvious the law was abused & as a result Ellis was again abused.

    Not to mention Pell’s obligation under Towards Healng was to protect Ellis, the Churches reports said Ellis was abused & should be supported . Towards Healing process was designed to continue through all process including legal.Pell personal forbade that in this case.
    Pell by any measure is in this case amoral.
    Again have you read , listened to the evidence?

  19. [I am Catholic as is my whole family but Pell is almost universally loathed.]

    And I’ve seen nothing at all to suggest that loathing isn’t very well founded.

  26. briefly

    Dred Scott was one of the worst Supreme Court decisions in history.

    It played a bit part in the Civil War starting.

  27. YAAAAY !!! After about 115 days we have rain, well more a Scottish mist but the wettest thang in what seems forever. Might even be upgraded to rain soon if the radar is right.

  34. WWP,

    Your defense of the utterly indefensible is very disturbing.

    Here are a few questions that all have simple Yes/No answers:

    1. Do you think Pell has met the standards his parishioners have a right to expect of a leader of the catholic church?

    2. Even if it proves to be technically legal, do you believe the Ellis Defence should continue to be used by the church to dismis lawsuits by the victims of pedophile priests?

    3. Do you acknowledge that by not dealing with the cases of pedophile priest’s victims quickly, compassionately and justly, the church has ruined lives, broken families, caused suicides, and resulted in ongoing misery amongst many of the surviving victims?

    4. Do you acknowledge that at least some of the above suffering could be relieved by monetary compensation?

    I know what answers Pell himself has given to all these questions.

    What are your answers?

  36. If you just assume the Church is basically like all other multinationals and don’t expect it to behave any differently, you can face its actions with a lot more equanimity.

  40. [South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill’s tenuous grip on power could become even more precarious with the news that a key independent has been diagnosed with a brain tumour, presenting the possibility of a by-election in his largely conservative seat.]

    Wow, the guy has a 20% chance of living to a normal life expectancy, yet the Guardian are putting him in the grave already. 🙁

  42. [Weasels are wonderful creatures.]

    But don’t everpick one up and cuddle it.

    You have to burn your T-shirt, because you can’t get the stench out of it.

  44. Bit late but has anyone read this?
    [Who hijacked the MH370 saga? Australia’s PM and conspiracy theories
    CNN reached a new low during its coverage of the missing Malaysia Airlines plane. Still, at least it kept the prime minister of Australia off our screens, however briefly.]
    [I once had a lecturer at university who ordered us not to write down anything he said during his classes. “Whoever writes in class,” he used to say, “will only remember one thing from that class: the color of the pencil.”

    I remembered that this week, when Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott stood in front of the cameras for his daily briefing on the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

    In recent days he talked so much that in the end, all we will remember of this affair is Abbott himself – his tan, his authoritative face, his impressive ears, his accent that could cause even Goethe to sound stupid. After every one of his announcements, the content of the words evaporated and disappeared like the plane itself, but who cares – what is important is that we know Tony Abbott is the prime minister of Australia, and you’re not.]
    http://www.haaretz.com/news/features/.premium-1.582513

  46. Sounds like Perth drivers have lived up to their reputation for being klutzes when it comes to driving in the rain. Third siren in the last 15 minutes racing somewhere.

  47. Did anyone else see the presser with Abbott and Morrison on the ABC news?

    Standing there with a large sign re the number of boat arrivals they have shovelled off to Manu

    How bloody crass are these people?

    They should have featured the two GForce people who seem to have caused the death of the young asylum seeker who was killed a couple of weeks back.

  48. All this talk about how the churches have dealt with compensation of victims actually glosses over the real issue for me, and this is how the churches turned a blind eye to the very serious CRIME of child abuse.

    Let us not forget – even for a moment – that these priests and church workers who abused these children were breaking the law. Instead of treating the perpetrators as precisely that – perpetrators – the church instead chose to treat them as sinners; trusting them when they said they wouldn’t do it again and so moved these men around so they were free to do it again in other parishes. And when they did, instead of saying “right, that’s it, buddy”, they treated them once again like sinners and either moved them on again or retired them to another part of the institution … whilst always blocking proper investigation as soon as the authorities were involved.

    One could be forgiven for wondering where the compassion was for the victims of these crimes. It seems to me that, until they were dragged kicking and screaming to the acceptance of responsibility, the churches didn’t give a damn about the victims, only their own precious wealth, reputation and influence.

    For me, this is the ultimate hypocrisy and what shits me most about this whole issue; even if you look at it as an issue of “sinning” the ordinary flock who sin seem to be treated far worse by the church than those who are supposed to be beyond reproach and, especially in cases like this, whose sins are far, far worse.

  49. [If you just assume the Church is basically like all other multinationals and don’t expect it to behave any differently, you can face its actions with a lot more equanimity.]

    I have no problems regarding the catholic church in much the same way as I regard James Hardie Industries. I just wish the institution wouldn’t lecture everyone else from a position of moral rectitude.

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