Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. William,

    The fact is that only he and Bruce are PMs to be turfed from their seats.

    Both, tried to introduce massive work place reforms that were clearly rejected by the voters.

    The stats you quote on popularity only prove that those measures are worthless when voters see their personal interests under threat.

  2. [Who the feck in Australia believed that Gillard had a genuine philosophical opposition to SSM ?]

    Quite so. It cost her support on the left, while social conservatives just thought she was a phony.

  3. […comments made a decade earlier?

    Huh?]

    Indeed. They were translated into Chinese and placed in the letterbox of every voter in Bennelong with a Chinese surname.

  4. Everything @962

    No, by objective performance I mean objective performance.

    I see very little to recommend Howard as deserving of anything other than decidedly average, the only thing of note that he achieved were his gun restrictions.

  5. What the betting for Knighthoods for old mates of the Libs
    _____________
    Sir Geoffrey Kennett
    Lord and Lady Howard (a seat in the Lords ?)
    Dame Bronwyn Bishop(even the hairdo is worth an honour
    and best of all SIR RUPERT MURDOCH..but currently no Lady M
    and what about Dame Gina Rienhardt…solid gold

  6. PO:

    It’s true that there are a lot of British migrants here. But they are only a small fraction of the overall voting population, and that includes not just people from other countries, but people born in Australia.

  7. [Diogenes

    That flight in June with Malaysian Airlines just looks worse and worse]

    One thing to bear in mind is the common airline practice of code share flights.

    That is probably the reason why so many Chinese nationals were on the Malaysian plane. They would have booked a ticket with China Southern which had a code share arrangement with Malaysian for the doomed flight.

    So passengers need to check carefully whether they will fly on the airline they book, or whether they will fly on a different airline under a code share arrangement.

  8. [cud chewer
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 8:58 pm | PERMALINK
    Unelectable means unable to be elected.

    You’re quite right Mod Lib. He was elected. Your point? Oh, your point is you’re clever.]

    This is a classic example of what I was saying. A poster says that Abbott has been unelectable for the last 6 years. I point out what a stupid comment that is, given he WAS ELECTED.

    You say nothing at all about the poster saying something that is quite patently wrong, but you do take the time to insult me for correcting said poster, by saying I am showing off how smart I am! 🙂

    Honestly, the childishness is breathtaking.

    [ I remember when you first came here and told us how much you hated Abbott and his extremism. How much you wanted Turnbull. You even told us you thought that Turnbull might get the job back still. You’ve forgotten you said that.]

    Forgotten? Hell no. I would dearly love for the party room to install Turnbull and dump Abbott. I have said so before, and I repeat it now. The difference between many here, and my good self, is that I am founded in reality sufficiently to be able to acknowledge the unlikeliness of my preferred outcome, rather than pretending to know something others don’t and that the Turnbull ascendancy is imminent (“Peak Turnbull” if you like! 🙂 )

    [And you still defend the indefensible because ultimately you’re rooted in core beliefs. Unions are bad. Market is good. Seriously, you avoid talking about what you really believe in and why you continue to defend this government despite obvious incompetence such as fraudband. What is it that you personally believe in that makes you so partisan. That makes you want to defend these fools despite all that you see?]

    I know this blows your mind, but I disagree with you.

    I understand you are passionate about this and this is your core expertise area (apparently). Good for you.

    I only have common sense, no insider knowledge. The Conroy White Elephant would have cost much more than he originally said (proven), it would have taken much longer than he originally said (proven), and as a taxpayer, I am happy for us to go with a worse option which costs less.

  9. This knighthood craziness made me realise something: unlike Howard, Abbott has no belief whatsoever in re-election.

    He knows he’s a one-termer.

    So like a demented corgi humping the royal table leg, off he goes.

  10. [980
    Everything

    Howard lost his seat because the Chinese voted solidly against him, because of his comments on Asian immigration,

    …comments made a decade earlier?]

    Yeah, Howard always had form on matters of race. He was a relic in every sense. His reaction to Hanson confirmed that he had never changed. The Chinese can smell a fake and they turned their nose up at Howard when it counted.

  11. Oh Deblonay @ 989 – you old Jew-hater you!! Israel and the Jews (you know the evil Zionists) are doing very nicely thank you so if that’s a delusion, give me more. And how are you doing … are you in Syria supporting suicide bombings or in Russia fighting against the Ukranians and for the restoration of Stalinism, or helping out Kim Jong-Un with his executions?

  12. GG, if either or both had been member for Kooyong, that neat bit of symmetry wouldn’t exist. There are indeed instructive parallels between 1929 and 2007, but the fact the PMs lost their seats is purely coincidence.

  13. @Mod Lib/1010

    Only those that say Labor’s NBN is a White Elephant is from the liberals.

    You have no Common Sense on the subject.

  14. [It was actually a demonstration of character that he stuck with Bennelong. He didn’t win the seat and then slink off and leave a by-election behind like other losing PMs.]

    That’s exactly what he would have done if he had won Bennelong but lost government.

  15. [Quite so. It cost her support on the left, while social conservatives just thought she was a phony.]

    William,

    I distinctly recall the very first episode of Q+A that happened to feature the freshly elected Rudd. In one question he talked enthusiastically about evidence based policy.

    Very shortly after he was asked about SSSM. Someone should have had the gall to ask him was the Labor position on SSM “evidence based”. If so was the evidence that they based their policy on pointing to a backlash from religious extremists and if so was this evidence anecdotal.

    In any case, I believe that Rudd and Gillard were essentially the same when it came to personal views versus hidden political calculus, but that Gillard got viewed differently in this respect.

  16. confessions@1008

    PO:

    It’s true that there are a lot of British migrants here. But they are only a small fraction of the overall voting population, and that includes not just people from other countries, but people born in Australia.

    Credlin needs a few percent quickly to remain in the running. This particular group is easy to dog-whistle.

  17. [1008
    confessions

    It’s true that there are a lot of British migrants here.]

    Yup, and a lot of them departed the UK hoping to leave class distinctions behind at the same time. The ones I know best are hard-working, energetic working people from the industrial wastelands. They will not be gulled by Abbott’s appeal to snobbery.

  18. [You say nothing at all about the poster saying something that is quite patently wrong, ]

    Nor should I. He was obviously mistaken. My point is you contribute nothing to reasoned discourse here. And you’re still defending the indefensible over broadband. And I’m only singling you out as an example of how otherwise reasonable and intelligent people nevertheless get suckered by Liberal narratives.

  19. [This particular group is easy to dog-whistle.]

    Maybe. The ex Brits I come into contact with certainly are a whingeing lot.

    But if for every vote gained in the ex pat community one is lost in the wider community because the govt is seen to be elitist and out of touch, it’s kind of an own goal.

  20. [I understand you are passionate about this and this is your core expertise area (apparently). Good for you.

    I only have common sense, no insider knowledge. ]

    And then you continue with your usual Liberal piffle.

    The facts are

    FTTN is temporary
    FTTN will be replaced in a few years with FTTH
    This will cost more than had we simply build FTTH now.

    And you know what? Whilst I do have expert knowledge in the subject the above is a very simple common sense breakdown that even you should grok.

  21. [cud chewer
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 9:14 pm | PERMALINK
    You say nothing at all about the poster saying something that is quite patently wrong,

    Nor should I. He was obviously mistaken.]

    Oh I see. You shouldn’t make any commenter about a poster that is obviously mistaken, but you SHOULD make a comment about how arrogant I am for pointing out that said poster was mistaken.

    As long as this makes sense to you.

    I would hate for it to look like you were just searching around for any reason to criticise me.

    That would be unbecoming! :devil:

  22. Mick77@879

    Jackol

    Stick to speaking for yourself Mick.


    Bob Hawke actually asked me to put in a word with Tony for his knighthood so I’m well qualified to speak on Hawkey’s behalf. He’d love it (he said!)

    I don’t think Hawke would give someone like you the time of day.

  23. briefly:

    The ex Brits I have contact with left the UK because they were able to triple and quadruple their retirement incomes by moving here. Sadly they are the epitome of the so-called whingeing pom.

  24. [cud chewer
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 9:16 pm | PERMALINK
    I understand you are passionate about this and this is your core expertise area (apparently). Good for you.

    I only have common sense, no insider knowledge.

    And then you continue with your usual Liberal piffle.

    The facts are

    FTTN is temporary]

    OK

    [FTTN will be replaced in a few years with FTTH]

    OK

    [This will cost more than had we simply build FTTH now.]

    OK

    So what is wrong with saying we can’t afford to do the expensive version now?

    What is wrong with saying that those who want the better version can buy it themselves?

    [And you know what? Whilst I do have expert knowledge in the subject the above is a very simple common sense breakdown that even you should grok.]

    I do grok it.

  25. I was and continue to be a big fan of Julia Gillard. That said, her stated opposition to SSM was never believable and she deserves criticism for that.

    Will be interesting to see if the subject gets a mention in her memoirs.

  26. Everything @1032

    Because saying we can’t afford it is a lie, and a user-pays system is not something that any country should strive for when it comes to basic utilities.

  27. Yawn.

    So it’s official, Tony Abbott is Sir T. Fiable.

    Why doesn’t this wanker just Piss Off if he can’t get with running the country instead of these dickfuck stunts.

    Year 9 students had it all over this quisling and his quasimodo a few weeks back.

  28. William,

    With respect, as you point out Howard was Member of Bennelong for 33 years. There were plenty of ups and downs during that time when he could have been turfed if his seat was marginal. But he was not.

    The reverence for PMs grows the further you are away from their actual tenure. Those post hoc polls mean bugger all. And really it’s like the number of people who were there at the “Tied test’ and in Melbourne the day the fog came down at Junction Oval when Carlton and Fitzroy played. It’s all make believe.

    As for symmetry both Flinders and Bennelong had been long held seats for the Libs and have reverted to their Liberal keepers since.

    The only other time I’m aware the Libs lost Flinders was when Peter Reith got done over in 83 after winning in late 82 following Phil Lynch’s demise. I’m not sure if any other MP never got to make a speech in Parliament in the term thy were elected?

    Anyway, I’m sure you’ve got your theories. I’ve got mine.

  29. [Jimmyhaz
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 9:21 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything @1032

    Because saying we can’t afford it is a lie, and a user-pays system is not something that any country should strive for when it comes to basic utilities.]

    It is already user pays, and under Conroy it would still be user pays (the consumer still pays for the regular subscription).

    If you are referring to the interwebby thin gamy being a “basic utility”, then the alternative is still providing said “basic utility”, its just that if you want the top notch utility then you have to pay extra.

    There is absolutely no valid reason why the taxpayer (me….and is anyone else here actually a taxpayer or are you all on the dole?) has to pay for everyone to get quick porn.

  30. Those of the Tory ilk who come here and write off Abbott’s latest stunt of Nites and Dames as being totally ignored by Middle Australia (‘It does not matter to them’ stuff) need then to outline why such a move is so important to Abbott.

    Clearly from Turnbull’s comment and that from Alannah McT on local radio, most Liberals has no idea this was coming.

    So much for the consultative, sharing and in-touch-with-ordinary-Oz-citizens Liberal Party.

    Abbott is showing some of his true colours – a despot in the making and certainly not an enlightened one.

  31. confessions

    Rain ? Seen heavier dew . All today it looked very threatening but like Tony Abbott there was nothing there. Nearest weather station rainfall over the last 72 hours = zero.

  32. anyone know how to select text on a windows 8.1 tablet.

    saying we cant afford it now or at all is a stupid crock. It is simply a matter of priorities or extra tax.

    saying only the rich who can afford it is fine too before the election after the election it is dishonest scumbag thing to do.

  33. Ruawke … Abbott asks for forgiveness ??
    ___________________. Pell is off to Rome this weekend…..and he is Chaplain to Opus Dei in Oz
    but Pell is off to Rome so who is to be Abbott’s “confessor “

  34. [but you SHOULD make a comment about how arrogant I am for pointing out that said poster was mistaken.]

    Yes, because I’m pointing out that much of what you do isn’t particularly rational or discursive. Its just trivialities and point scoring (mostly). Very occasionally I spot you making an actual, interesting, relevant observation on things that matter – you know like policy. But mostly, nope..

  35. Diogenes – as one who is also using MAS in the coming months, and have used them in the past and thought they seemed a together airline, I hope your comments about the financial demise of the airline is a rumour only.

    I suspect that MAS, a bit like Qantas, is more than an airline to Malaysia. It is the airline that actually holds the nation together. Also, one wonders just how much face could be lost by Malaysia if the airline were to fail.

    I gather MAS is 60-70% owned by the Malaysian government and I wonder if they could afford to let it go down?

  36. [WeWantPaul
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 9:26 pm | PERMALINK
    anyone know how to select text on a windows 8.1 tablet.

    saying we cant afford it now or at all is a stupid crock. It is simply a matter of priorities or extra tax.]

    I get the impression that nothing is too expensive for Bludgeroonies.

    ….not sure how many of you manage budgets with that mentality!

  37. [So what is wrong with saying we can’t afford to do the expensive version now?]

    Because its not the expensive version. FTTN is.

    Basically if what you were saying were true. That we can borrow $43 billion (or more depending on all the other things that weren’t accounted for) but for some reason we absolutely can not borrow $56 billion for some as yet unexplored reason. Ok lets take that dubious claim as read.

    Why build anything at all? Why not give up and wait a few years and not waste billions on FTTN?

    Again, you go along with the team and don’t reason it through.

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