Sunday, March 23
I’ve finally found time to take a close look at the preferences situation and its likely effect on the result, on which Truth Seeker’s Monte Carlo simulations offer considerable insight. Here goes:
The result at last year’s election bucked the normal pattern in producing a result of four right, two left, rather than three-all. Within the right and left seat groupings were two separate battles, the results of which were never resolved. Clearly the Liberals won three seats on the right, the third elected candidate being Linda Reynolds, but the last one had the potential to go to either the Palmer United Party or the Sports Party. On the left, it was not clear whether both seats were won by Labor, or if Scott Ludlam held his seat for the Greens at the expense of Labor’s Louise Pratt. The major determinant of the left’s weak showing was a low vote for both Labor, down 3.11% on an already poor result in 2010 to 26.59%, and the Greens, down 4.47% on a strong 2010 result to 9.49%. Even when supplemented by the vote for smaller parties commonly reckoned to be part of the left, mainly the Sex Party (1.49%), Help End Marijuana Prohibition (1.06%), Wikileaks (0.75%), Animal Justice (0.74%), the total left vote was only 40.3%, or 40.6% if the Democrats are deemed to count. Either sum is a fair distance short of the 42.86% required for a third quota.
However, the situation was more complicated than usual due to both the high micro-party vote, and the extent to which micro-parties of left and right directed preferences to each other rather than larger parties of closer ideological proximity, a phenomenon largely attributed to the deal-making prowess of Glenn Druery. This was generally to the detriment of the left, particularly on the scenario in which preference-harvesting success story the Sports Party emerged triumphant at the final count. Among the parties contributing to the Sports Party snowball were the Sex Party, HEMP, Wikileaks and Animal Justice, whose preferences were accordingly denied to the Greens and Labor. Between the four of them, votes for “left” parties which ended up on the “right” accounted for about 4% of the total.
This time around, it appears the Sex Party, Wikileaks and Animal Justice have been stung by the controversies that attended their earlier pragmatic and/or perverse preference judgements, as each is running more conventionally left-wing tickets. Had they done so in September, the Sports Party would have been unable to make it to a quota on any scenario. Only HEMP (1.06%) looks to be on board the Glenn Druery train, with the main left parties buried deep down its ticket. With the potential for leakage thus reduced, it will only take a swing from right to left of 3.5% to convert last year’s four right, two left result into three-all.
On the right side of the ledger, it should be noted that the potential existed for the preference axe to have swung the other way last September, given the high placing granted to the Greens by Palmer United. Had the aforementioned left-wing minor parties directed preferences to the Greens, the scenario that saw the Sports Party elected would instead have delivered seats to both Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam, with both Sports and Palmer excluded and the 5.0% Palmer vote shifting from right to left in the shape of a preference transfer to Ludlam. That would no doubt have caused considerable umbrage towards Palmer United in conservative circles. However, in keeping with the generally more straightforward picture this time around, the Palmer United ticket is generally anti-left, putting right-of-centre minor parties ahead of the Coalition, with Labor and then the Greens further down amidst mostly left-of-centre concerns.
Should a three-all result transpire, it seems very likely the result will be three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, as it was in 2004, 2007 and 2010, barring a surprisingly large transfer of votes from Liberal to Palmer United. Otherwise, the fourth right seat will again be a tussle between Palmer United and an indeterminate preference-harvester. There are a number of reasons to favour the former, namely the extended Palmer publicity drive, the likelihood that lower turnout will harm the micro-party vote, and the aforementioned absence of the Sex Party and Wikileaks from preference harvesting arrangements. Conversely, the Sports and Motoring Enthusiasts parties may get a boost from the Russell Woolf/Verity James ticket, consisting of erstwhile ABC personalities running to plead the cause for the public broadcaster. As Paul Murray complained in Saturday’s West Australian, their ticket places Louise Pratt considerably higher than Linda Reynolds, and thus promises to deliver a free kick of indeterminate size to Labor. However, it also places the Sports Party and the Motoring Enthusiasts ahead of Labor, thus increasing the apparently diminished chances of one of those parties pulling off another boilover.
On the left, Labor has done the better out of the preference realignment in that the Sex Party has favoured it over the Greens, which amounted to twice as many votes last year as were cast for the Greens-preferencing Wikileaks. Ludlam would thus have to hope that Labor state secretary Simon Mead speaks truly when he argues lower turnout will hurt Labor, as any improvement in their vote would give him a higher hurdle to clear.
Friday, March 21
Antony Green’s preference calculator is open for business. Occasional pseph blogger Truth Seeker, who became a household name (in certain types of household at least) in tracking the Senate count in the weeks following the federal election, has also swung back into action, finding the most likely result to be three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens, based on a series of assumptions that may or may not prove accurate.
Tuesday, March 18
Group voting tickets have been published by the AEC site. Below are simplified versions thereof, which ignore placement of all candidates who are either certain to be elected, or certain not to be. In the former camp are the two two Liberal candidates and the top Labor candidate. In the latter are all candidates on non-major party tickets other than the lead candidate, and all below number three on the Liberal ticket and number two on the Labor ticket. For example, the DLP superficially appears to have Labor in the middle somewhere, but an exception has been made for Louise Pratt who is given last place, which means that DLP preferences will end up with anyone other than Labor at the decisive point in the count.
The Wikileaks Party: Greens; HEMP; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Labor; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; Sports; Sustainable Population; Democrats; DLP; Secular; Katter’s Australian; Republican; PUP; Nationals; Mutual; Liberal Democrats; Woolf/James; Liberal; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Family First; Freedom and Prosperity; Motoring Enthusiast; Smokers Rights; Fishing & Lifestyle; Australian Christians; Van Lieshout; Outdoor Recreation; Shooters & Fishers; Rise Up Australia.
The Nationals: Liberal; DLP; Fishing & Lifestyle; Australian Christians; Family First; Liberal Democrats; Building Australia; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Outdoor Recreation; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian; Republican; Mutual; Democrats; Woolf/James; PUP; Secular; Wikileaks; Labor; Greens; Sustainable Population; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Pirate; Voluntary Euthanasia; Smokers Rights; Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Socialist Alliance; HEMP; Van Lieshout.
Russell Woolf/Verity James: Voluntary Euthanasia; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Labor; Greens; HEMP; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Mutual; Sustainable Population; PUP; Wikileaks; Nationals; Democrats; Pirate; Katter’s Australian; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Secular; Socialist Alliance; Van Lieshout; Building Australia; Liberal; Republican; Smokers Rights; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Outdoor Recreation; Freedom and Prosperity; Liberal Democrats; Australian Voice; Family First.
Australian Democrats: Sustainable Population; Animal Justice; HEMP; Wikileaks; Mutual; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Secular; Pirate; Socialist Alliance; Woolf/James; Freedom and Prosperity; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Van Lieshout; Greens; Shooters & Fishers; Fishing & Lifestyle; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; half Labor, Nationals, Liberal; half Nationals, Liberal, Labor; Family First; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Republican; Smokers Rights; Outdoor Recreation; Liberal Democrats.
Pirate Party: Greens; Secular; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Sports; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; HEMP; Animal Justice; Sustainable Population; Mutual; Building Australia; Socialist Alliance; Australian Voice; Woolf/James; Labor; Republican; DLP; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Nationals; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Liberal; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Van Lieshout.
Australian Labor Party: Secular; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Woolf/James; Voluntary Euthanasia; HEMP; Greens; Democrats; Pirate; Wikileaks; Socialist Alliance; Liberal Democrats; PUP; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Family First; Freedom and Prosperity; Mutual; Sustainable Population; Motoring Enthusiast; Sports; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Fishing & Lifestyle; Republican; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Van Lieshout; Nationals; Liberal; Rise Up Australia.
Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Shooters & Fishers; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Sports; PUP; HEMP; Fishing & Lifestyle; Mutual; Building Australia; Outdoor Recreation; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Pirate; Democrats; Woolf/James; Van Lieshout; Republican; Sex Party; Family First; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Katter’s Australian; Animal Justice; Liberal Democrats; Smokers Rights; Australian Christians; Nationals; half Liberal, half Labor; Greens; Secular; Socialist Alliance.
Freedom and Prosperity Party: Australian Voice; Mutual; Building Australia; Sports; Rise Up Australia; Katter’s Australian; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Family First; Fishing & Lifestyle; Motoring Enthusiast; Australian Christians; Democrats; HEMP; Liberal Democrats; Republican; PUP; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Woolf/James; Van Lieshout; Pirate; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Sustainable Population; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Socialist Alliance; Secular; Greens.
Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Ticket 1): Woolf/James; HEMP; Secular; Sex Party; Pirate; Greens; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Sports; Sustainable Population; Democrats; Wikileaks; Socialist Alliance; PUP; Motoring Enthusiast; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Mutual; Nationals; Republican; Liberal; Smokers Rights; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Katter’s Australian; Animal Justice; Outdoor Recreation; Van Lieshout.
Voluntary Euthanasia Party (Ticket 2): Woolf/James; HEMP; Secular; Sex Party; Pirate; Labor; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Sports; Sustainable Population; Democrats; Wikileaks; Motoring Enthusiast; Building Australia; Outdoor Recreation; Socialist Alliance; Smokers Rights; Republican; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Mutual; PUP; Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Nationals; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Animal Justice; Liberal; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Australian Christians; Van Lieshout.
Liberal Democrats: Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Democrats; Wikileaks; Mutual; Republican; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Woolf/James; HEMP; Building Australia; Sports; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Pirate; Secular; Sex Party; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Nationals; Labor; PUP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Greens; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Van Lieshout.
Australian Voice Party: Freedom and Prosperity; Sustainable Population; Building Australia; Motoring Enthusiast; Shooters & Fishers; Fishing & Lifestyle; PUP; Australian Christians; HEMP; Sports; Mutual; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Wikileaks; Democrats; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Woolf/James; Sex Party; Nationals; Family First; Republican; Secular; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; Voluntary Euthanasia; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Liberal Democrats; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Van Lieshout.
Building Australia Party: Australian Voice; Mutual; Sustainable Population; Freedom and Prosperity; Sports; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Fishing & Lifestyle; Motoring Enthusiast; HEMP; DLP; Family First; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; PUP; Liberal Democrats; Republican; Smokers Rights; Nationals; Woolf/James; Wikileaks; Liberal; Sex Party; Labor; Pirate; Secular; Socialist Alliance; Outdoor Recreation; Voluntary Euthanasia; Greens; Van Lieshout.
Mutual Party: Van Lieshout; Sustainable Population; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Democrats; Katter’s Australian; Sports; Rise Up Australia; Republican; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; HEMP; Woolf/James; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Fishing & Lifestyle; PUP; Motoring Enthusiast; Smokers Rights; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Family First; Outdoor Recreation; Animal Justice; Secular; Pirate; Liberal; Nationals; Socialist Alliance; Labor; Greens.
Family First Party: PUP; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; Fishing & Lifestyle; Building Australia; Sports; Freedom and Prosperity; Liberal Democrats; Nationals; Liberal; Motoring Enthusiast; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian; Outdoor Recreation; Van Lieshout; Mutual; Animal Justice; Australian Voice; Democrats; Woolf/James; Sustainable Population; Republican; Smokers Rights; Greens; Labor; Voluntary Euthanasia; Pirate; Wikileaks; HEMP; Secular; Socialist Alliance; Sex Party.
Sustainable Population Party: Mutual; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Motoring Enthusiast; Democrats; Sports; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; HEMP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Woolf/James; Nationals; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Fishing & Lifestyle; one-third Greens, Labor, Liberal; one-third Labor, Greens, Liberal; one-third Liberal, Greens, Labor; Republican; Secular; PUP; Pirate; Family First; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian; Freedom and Prosperity; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Rise Up Australia; Socialist Alliance; Smokers Rights; Outdoor Recreation; Van Lieshout.
Palmer United Party: Sports; Family First; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; HEMP; Democrats; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Katter’s Australian; Freedom and Prosperity; Mutual; Nationals; Liberal; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Labor; Pirate; Woolf/James; Outdoor Recreation; Secular; Van Lieshout; DLP; Animal Justice; Greens; Sustainable Population; Republican; Wikileaks; Smokers Rights; Socialist Alliance; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia.
Australian Sports Party: Freedom and Prosperity; Sustainable Population; Australian Voice; Fishing & Lifestyle; Mutual; Motoring Enthusiast; Building Australia; Voluntary Euthanasia; Republican; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Democrats; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; PUP; Secular; Liberal; HEMP; Katter’s Australian; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; Animal Justice; Greens; Labor; Nationals; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Woolf/James; Van Lieshout.
Liberal: Nationals; Australian Christians; DLP; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Woolf/James; Fishing & Lifestyle; Democrats; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Mutual; Sustainable Population; Sports; Outdoor Recreation; Motoring Enthusiast; Republican; Smokers Rights; Voluntary Euthanasia; Secular; Pirate; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Labor; Wikileaks; HEMP; Socialist Alliance; Rise Up Australia; Greens; Van Lieshout.
Shooters and Fishers: Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Sports; Building Australia; Mutual; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Democrats; HEMP; Sustainable Population; Republican; Katter’s Australian; Rise Up Australia; PUP; Family First; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Liberal Democrats; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Australian Christians; DLP; Sex Party; Woolf/James; Voluntary Euthanasia; Secular; Pirate; Wikileaks; Socialist Alliance; Van Lieshout; Animal Justice; Greens.
Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Wikileaks; Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Katter’s Australian; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Mutual; Freedom and Prosperity; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Building Australia; Shooters & Fishers; Woolf/James; Sex Party; Republican; Secular; Pirate; Labor; PUP; Liberal Democrats; Socialist Alliance; Greens; Smokers Rights; Outdoor Recreation; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Nationals; Family First; Van Lieshout; Australian Christians; Liberal.
Republican Party of Australia: Liberal Democrats; Sustainable Population; Secular; Sex Party; Freedom and Prosperity; HEMP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Outdoor Recreation; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Animal Justice; Mutual; Smokers Rights; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Fishing & Lifestyle; Liberal; Nationals; Greens; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Labor; Katter’s Australian; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; Rise Up Australia; Wikileaks; Woolf/James; Australian Christians; Family First; DLP; PUP; Van Lieshout.
Smokers Rights: Liberal Democrats; Outdoor Recreation; Van Lieshout; Democrats; Wikileaks; Mutual; Republican; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Woolf/James; HEMP; Building Australia; Sports; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Pirate; Secular; Sex Party; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Nationals; Labor; PUP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Greens; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance.
Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Freedom and Prosperity; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Building Australia; Sustainable Population; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Australian Christians; Democrats; Mutual; Republican; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Liberal; Nationals; PUP; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Katter’s Australian; HEMP; Labor; Greens; Secular; Australian Voice; Pirate; Woolf/James; Van Lieshout; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia.
Australian Christians: DLP; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Liberal; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Nationals; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian; Mutual; Building Australia; Sports; PUP; Motoring Enthusiast; Van Lieshout; Republican; Woolf/James; Outdoor Recreation; Labor; Pirate; Animal Justice; Democrats; Smokers Rights; Wikileaks; Secular; Liberal Democrats; Socialist Alliance; HEMP; Sustainable Population; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party.
Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Pirate; Republican; Greens; Liberal Democrats; HEMP; Animal Justice; Labor; Socialist Alliance; Van Lieshout; Sustainable Population; Nationals; Liberal; Building Australia; PUP; Mutual; Outdoor Recreation; Katter’s Australian; Sports; Fishing & Lifestyle; Australian Voice; Motoring Enthusiast; Smokers Rights; Shooters & Fishers; Freedom and Prosperity; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Family First; Woolf/James; Australian Christians.
Rise Up Australia Party: DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Mutual; Katter’s Australian; Freedom and Prosperity; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Fishing & Lifestyle; Sports; Liberal; Nationals; Outdoor Recreation; Shooters & Fishers; Motoring Enthusiast; PUP; Smokers Rights; Woolf/James; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Pirate; Republican; Sustainable Population; Van Lieshout; Secular; Socialist Alliance; HEMP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens; Labor.
The Greens (WA): Wikileaks; Pirate; Socialist Alliance; Woolf/James; Labor; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Secular; Democrats; HEMP; Sustainable Population; Sports; Republican; Australian Voice; Building Australia; DLP; Motoring Enthusiast; Family First; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Mutual; Freedom and Prosperity; Nationals; Liberal; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Smokers Rights; Fishing & Lifestyle; Outdoor Recreation; Liberal Democrats; Van Lieshout; Rise Up Australia.
DLP Democratic Labour Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; Family First; Katter’s Australian; Mutual; Van Lieshout; Fishing & Lifestyle; Building Australia; Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Motoring Enthusiast; Sports; Woolf/James; Republican; Smokers Rights; Outdoor Recreation; Liberal Democrats; Nationals; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; PUP; Democrats; Secular; Sustainable Population; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Pirate; HEMP; Wikileaks; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens; Labor.
Katter’s Australian Party: Mutual; Australian Voice; DLP; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Australian Christians; HEMP; Shooters & Fishers; Building Australia; Outdoor Recreation; PUP; Rise Up Australia; Fishing & Lifestyle; Family First; Van Lieshout; Woolf/James; Nationals; half Labor, half Liberal; Republican; Pirate; Sustainable Population; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Secular; Freedom and Prosperity; Greens; Sex Party; Smokers Rights.
Animal Justice Party: Sustainable Population; Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia; HEMP; Pirate; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Mutual; Secular; half Labor, half Greens; PUP; Woolf/James; Katter’s Australian; Liberal; Republican; Socialist Alliance; Building Australia; Family First; Australian Voice; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Christians; DLP; Nationals; Liberal Democrats; Outdoor Recreation; Smokers Rights; Rise Up Australia; Sports; Motoring Enthusiast; Van Lieshout; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers.
Sex Party: Secular; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Labor; HEMP; Democrats; Voluntary Euthanasia; Pirate; Greens; Socialist Alliance; Sports; Mutual; Woolf/James; Freedom and Prosperity; Sustainable Population; Australian Voice; Building Australia; Shooters & Fishers; Fishing & Lifestyle; Motoring Enthusiast; PUP; Liberal; Nationals; Katter’s Australian; Smokers Rights; Republican; Van Lieshout; Liberal Democrats; Outdoor Recreation; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians.
Socialist Alliance: Greens; Pirate; Woolf/James; HEMP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Wikileaks; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Sustainable Population; Sports; Secular; Mutual; DLP; Nationals; Liberal; Republican; Katter’s Australian; PUP; Motoring Enthusiast; Australian Voice; Liberal Democrats; Building Australia; Smokers Rights; Fishing & Lifestyle; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Freedom and Prosperity; Van Lieshout; Outdoor Recreation.
Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens): Liberal Democrats; Smokers Rights; Van Lieshout; Democrats; Wikileaks; Mutual; Republican; Katter’s Australian; DLP; Woolf/James; HEMP; Building Australia; Sports; Freedom and Prosperity; Australian Voice; Sustainable Population; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Motoring Enthusiast; Fishing & Lifestyle; Pirate; Secular; Sex Party; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Nationals; Labor; PUP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Socialist Alliance; Greens.
Friday, March 14
The ballot paper draw was conducted today, and thanks to a
photo tweeted by the Greens from the AEC office, we can see that there are 33 groups listed – not as bad as the 44 from New South Wales last year, but bad enough that the font size on the ballot paper will have to be smaller this time. In order:
A: Wikileaks Party
B: Nationals
C: Unendorsed (Russell Woolf)
D: Democrats
E: Pirate Party
F: Labor
G: Motoring Enthusiast
H: Freedom and Prosperity
I: Voluntary Euthanasia
J: Liberal Democrats
K: Australian Voice
L: Building Australia
M: Mutual Party
N: Family First
O: Sustainable Population
P: Palmer United Party
Q: Australian Sports Party
R: Liberal
S: Shooters and Fishers
T: Help End Marijuana Prohibition
U: Republican Party of Australia
V: Smokers Rights
W: Australian Fishing and Lifestyle
X: Australian Christians
Y: Secular Party
Z: Rise Up Australia
AA: Greens
AB: Democratic Labor Party
AC: Katter’s Australian Party
AD: Animal Justice
AE: Sex Party
AF: Socialist Alliance
AG: Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop the Greens)
Monday, March 10
State election diversions have left me with regrettably little to say about the momentous re-run of Western Australia’s Senate election on April 5, but here finally is a post that will be regularly updated with noteworthy developments as the campaign proceeds. The electoral roll closed on Friday, and the remainder of the timetable runs as follows:
Thursday, March 13. Close of nominations.
Friday, March 14. Ballot paper draw.
Saturday, March 15. Lodgement of group voting tickets.
Tuesday, March 18. Early voting commences.
Saturday, April 5. Polling day.
So it is on Friday that we will find out exactly how many candidates the ballot paper will have to accommodate, and the precise scale of the related logistical issues facing the beleagured Australian Electoral Commission, and on Saturday that we will have a clear sense of the preference terrain. Most of the news generated by the campaign so far has accordingly related to the preference negotiations, which has provided a succession of bad news for the Greens. Labor has indicated it will break a practice of 10 years in not giving the Greens their second preference, essentially because their incentive to do so is weakened by the fact that the Greens do not have lower house preferences to barter with. Help End Marijuana Prohibition says it will drop the Greens down its order because, as Heath Aston of Fairfax reports, it has not delivered on its promise to call a drug summit in Canberra. The Sex Party says it will do the same because, as Andrew Tillett of The West Australian reports, it is “furious the Greens ran a national social media campaign in the lead-up to the September 7 poll, claiming that a vote for the Sex Party would help elect Pauline Hanson to a NSW Senate seat” (albeit that the claim was by no means unfair).
The implications of left-wing minor parties, which can be said to include the Democrats and Wikileaks as well as the aforementioned HEMP and Sex Party, crossing the ideological divide to participate in micro-party preference coalitions is considered by Charles Richardson in Crikey. If left and right parties directed preferences to each other, it is likely that both Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam would get up for a result of two Labor and one Greens, while a tussle would emerge on the right between the third Liberal and the leading right-wing preference harvester. However, if preferences from the aforementioned left-wing micro parties end up with said preference-harvester ahead of Labor and the Greens, the chance increases of the left again having only two seats, and Pratt and Ludlam again fighting it out for the second. If Labor puts the preference-harvester ahead of the Greens, the chances of a four right, two left result increases still further in the event that Pratt falls out of the count at an earlier stage than Ludlam.
41 That just wrong the deal was done Stephen Newnham from the right
[PUP may be smelling the breeze out in the West with this announcement (supporting the RET)]
Like he did on refugees in 2013: he’s trying to woo the % of potential GRN voters who are protest voters.
Come on, the guy’s a coal-miner.
A DVD has arrived in the mail from the Clive Palmer campaign.
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The Thatcher/Regan changes were part of the pendulum of mainstream politics swinging to the right as Communism decayed, the stagflation of the oil crisis hurt and people who did not remember the depression gained increasing influence over the world economy. With the GFC, the pendulum is tarting to swing the other way. Some (but not all) of the Thatcher/Regan changes will go.
[53
William Bowe
Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 1:32 pm | PERMALINK
A DVD has arrived in the mail from the Clive Palmer campaign.]
Return to sender address unknown
I notice the Liberal Democrats are listed before the Liberals. I wonder what different (3%?) it will make to the Liberal’s primary. I’m assuming that’s how Leyonhjelm was elected in NSW.
In NSW last year, the Liberal Democrats got column A and most of a quota on primaries.
Clive Palmer this morning on RN Breakfast:
‘Australia needs to have a renewable energy target and how we achieve that we’ll have to look at.’
‘I don’t think we’ll be voting with the Greens on any of those things that they support.’
‘[The RET] needs to be done with incentives for the people [who] want to do it. We don’t necessarily think it should be a mandatory thing.’
‘No, I don’t think [the RET] should remain mandatory.’
PUP policy development witnessed in real time.
My WA Senate Calculator now published at http://www.abc.net.au/news/wa-senate-2014/
Sorry to return to cold dog’s vomit here, but the Fielding preference deal was negotiated by Erik Locke, the then (Left) state secretary, and Alan Griffin, then and now (Left) federal MP for Bruce. Newnham had nothing to do with it. It wasn’t designed to benefit Jacinta Collins in any factional sense. It was designed to elect three Labor Senators. Unfortunately, because Latham drove down the ALP primary vote in Victoria, it didn’t come off. That’s a risk you run with preference deals.
Speedy linking, Will!
I know some of the assumptions are heroic, but I reckon they’re as common sense as possible at this stage of the game. Should some of the assumptions be modified?
To what extent has campaign material over there been specifying which group a party is in?
http://originaltruthseeker.blogspot.com.au/
Thanks for the post Truth Seeker, your efforts are appreciated and I was hanging out for your post!
David Leyonhjelm – hats off.
[The senator-elect for the Liberal Democrats in NSW, David Leyonhjelm, said his party was running candidates for the Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop the Greens) as “a front, in the same way that the Nationals are a front party for the Liberals”.
“It is a vehicle to feed preferences to the Liberal Democrats,” he said.
Mr Leyonhjelm, who visited Perth this week to campaign, said Mr De Lima’s $2000 entrance fee was paid by party donations.
“When we want someone to make up the numbers – and running number two for the Senate is making up the numbers – we do not get picky about where they live or how well they understand the issue,” he said.
“It’s ‘put your name down, sign the form and shut up’.
“That last bit, he forgot about. He is not going to get elected and he does not matter.”]
I’m not sure “at least he’s honest” is that much of a compliment given he’s basically brazenly rorting the system.
Except of course the Nats are not a front for the Libs.
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Not in WA at least.
[On the left, Labor has done the better out of the preference realignment in that the Sex Party has favoured it over the Greens, which amounted to twice as many votes last year as were cast for the Greens-preferencing Wikileaks. Ludlam would thus have to hope that Labor state secretary Simon Mead speaks truly when he argues lower turnout will hurt Labor, as any improvement in their vote would give him a higher hurdle to clear.]
I guess this would be why the Greens are encouraging voters to vote ATL?
Given a 3 Lib, 2 Lab, 1 Grn result the overall Senate picture will be that Labor and the Greens will need 2 more cross bench senators to vote to block legislation.
For me the most interesting question still is, who and on what issues.
[For me the most interesting question still is, who and on what issues.]
When will some of the Palmer United Senators realise that Clive Palmer can’t actually determine how they vote in the Senate?
https://theconversation.com/wa-senate-re-vote-polls-issues-and-the-troubled-voting-system-24629
[Ahead of polling day, the University of Western Australia’s Natalie Mast sat down with election analyst and PhD candidate William Bowe (aka “The Poll Bludger”) to discuss how the Senate election process and how the campaign is shaping up]
70
Unless the PUP is still an electoral force, in the states the PUP Senators serve, in 2 election time or at a DD, Palmer can offer them nothing in terms of electoral return. This gives them little incentive to follow his lead, other than a moral imperative to be party of the party they were elected for, unless there is more underhanded things going on (and I have seen no evidence of that).
[Ahead of polling day, the University of Western Australia’s Natalie Mast sat down with election analyst and PhD candidate William Bowe (aka “The Poll Bludger”) to discuss how the Senate election process and how the campaign is shaping up]
Are we having a party soon to mark William’s ten years as a PhD candidate?
[Are we having a party soon to mark William’s ten years as a PhD candidate?]
I’ll contribute some party hats! 🙂
http://www.news.com.au/national/western-australia/early-voting-for-wa-senate-election-begins/story-fnii5thn-1226863316362
[Early voting for WA senate election begins
March 24, 2014 2:25PM
AAP
EARLY votes for Western Australia’s re-run Senate election are now being lodged at about 40 locations around the state, including airports, hospitals, mine sites and nursing homes.
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) said airport voting was available at seven Perth Airport terminals, including the international terminal.
Mobile polling has also begun at nursing homes and hospitals, while eight teams will be travelling to indigenous communities and mine sites through to election day on April 5.
Voters can find out where to vote on the AEC website or by calling 13 23 26.
There is also still time to apply for a postal vote online or at an Australia Post or AEC office.]
First of all, none of you have met me personally and sat down and had a personal conversation with me, or on the telephone, you are welcome to do so, Mobile 0400409771, so no insults or abuse thank you, and secondly, I’m the only Senate candidate who’s bothered to get on here and comment….what I want to say is…the only hope for Australian voters is to VOTE BELOW THE LINE, NUMBER ALL BOXES YOURSELF, abolish above the line voting and abolish the ‘preference deals’ done by parties, VOTE BELOW THE LINE, TO EMPOWER YOURSELF. You all should be voting me number 1, like I said, I made the effort to comment here, and offered my phone number for personal discussion, and I’m the ONLY POLITICAL CANDIDATE fighting for a ‘Bill of Rights’ and ‘Citizens Initiated Referenda’ for Australian citizens, to empower you politically to have a greater input into the political process and decision making. Thankyou.
New Senate election post:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/03/31/wa-senate-election-minus-five-days/