Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Newland and Mitchell (SA)

Two new electorate-level polls suggest an intriguing election night looms in South Australia on Saturday.

The Advertiser has published two of Galaxy’s electorate-level automated phone polls from samples of about 550, and they have produced the very interesting findings that Labor holds 51-49 leads in its key marginal seats of Mitchell and Newland. The Liberals need six seats to form a majority government, and with respective margins of 2.5% and 2.6%, the seats in question are Labor’s fifth and sixth most marginal. We will evidently have to wait until tomorrow’s hard copy of the paper for full results, but it appears the poll will show that Kris Hanna, a former Labor member for the seat who held it as an independent in 2006 but was defeated by Labor’s Alan Sibbons in 2010, is at the very least competitive.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the poll in fact has Kris Hanna a fairly distant third on 19%, with Labor on 38%, the Liberals 36%, the Greens on 4% and Family First on 3%. For Newland, the results are 44% Labor, 42% Liberal, 8% Family First and 6% Greens. With both sets of primary votes, I would have thought Labor would have been further ahead than 51-49 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE 2: The Australian reports provisional results from a Newspoll survey to be completed today gives the Liberals further cause to fear they may not make it over the line:

But with results from the first 1000 voters polled showing a two-party-preferred vote of 53-47 per cent to the Liberals, Labor Premier Jay Weatherill may still have a chance of forming minority government if swings are contained in key marginal seats.

With two thirds of voters polled for an exclusive Newspoll to be published in The Weekend Australian, Labor’s primary vote has fallen from 34 per cent to 33 per cent over the past month while the Liberal Party’s primary vote has dipped slightly from 44 to 42 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

122 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Newland and Mitchell (SA)”

  1. [ABC1’s coverage begins at 6.30pm (CST) with presenter Chris Uhlmann joined by the ABC’s South Australian News Presenter Jessica Harmsen and SA Political Correspondent, Nick Harmsen. They will be joined by political analyst William Bowe and political panel, John Rau, Deputy Leader (ALP) and Member for Enfield, and Vickie Chapman, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and State Member for Bragg.
    ]

    Well done to William.

    I’m guessing moderation might be a tad relaxed tomorrow evening……

  2. With William as the official political analyst, does that mean he gets to be the one to officially call the election?

    We might be able to bribe him into choosing a time of our liking and bet heavily on that at the pub.. 🙂

  3. Actually my family want William to call the election at 7.30 so the ABC can cut its coverage early and show Midsomer Murders at a decent hour.

  4. If Labor doesn’t win a majority, they should resign, and refuse all blandishments to form a minority government. It’s both the right thing to do and in the party’s interest.

    oh FFS

  5. Let’s just say that Vickie Chapman is stereotypical of a very affluent and dysfunctional part of the Eastern suburbs of Adelaide.

  6. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m
    #Newspoll SA State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47.7 (+1.7) LIB 52.3 (-1.7) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m
    #Newspoll SA State Primary Votes: ALP 34 (0) LIB 41 (-3) GRN 9 (+2) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m
    #Newspoll SA Weatherill ALP: Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 42 (-2) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m
    #Newspoll SA Marshall LIB: Approve 42 (-3) Disapprove 35 (+6) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m
    #Newspoll SA Preferred Premier: Weatherill ALP 43 (+3) Marshall LIB 37 (-2) #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
    #Newspoll SA State Who will win: ALP 22 (+1) LIB 59 (-2) #savotes #auspol]

  7. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m
    #Newspoll SA State Primary Votes (Adelaide): ALP 37 LIB 38 #savotes #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m
    #Newspoll SA State Primary Votes (Regional SA): ALP 24 LIB 50 #savotes #auspol]

    (I am presuming Adelaide means the whole metro area, not just the seat with the same name)

  8. YIKES!

    That is very different to the other polling.

    Looks like we have a Reachtel vs. Newspoll fight and the winner will be clear tomorrow.

    On Reachtel its a clear Lib win
    On Newspoll its a reasonably clear ALP minority government/bare majority government.

  9. @ Carey Moore 112/114

    Wow. As Psephos said at 113, that’s only an 0.5% swing to the Liberals. Labor could quite easily retain majority government on that, nevermind minority government.

  10. [Final predictions?]

    I honestly can’t make a confident one. The numbers are everywhere. The ALP Government is on the nose, yet the Libs have run a bloody inept campaign. I’ll have to go with my gut here.

    Lib win. They’ll just get the 24 seats they need.

    But seriously, that was just a gut guess and nothing to do with psephological analysis.

    Don’t even ask about the Legislative Council! 😛

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