Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

After the last result gave Labor its biggest lead of any poll since the election of the Abbott government, the latest fortnightly Newspoll has come in closer to trend.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.

UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,524 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [The plane lost contact while still in Malaysian air space.]

    OK so my theory’s not perfect. But no-one else has a prefect theory either. Maybe there was a Japanese fighter patrol who hadn’t been told the war was over.

  2. Magic Pudding

    Of course the Greens are not going to form government.

    I remember a Bludger some time ago asking whether the Greens would get into government before the Dockers would win a grand final?

    I replied saying the Dockers will be winning stacks and stacks of grand finals before the Greens would ever form government.

    Pretty hard to form government next to the Democrats in a resting place – not long now 😈

  4. Anyone heard anymore on these claims?

    [The former counter-terrorism adviser to President Barack Obama said there had been ‘some claims of responsibility’ over the missing jet that had ‘not been confirmed or corroborated’]

  6. [The former counter-terrorism adviser to President Barack Obama said there had been ‘some claims of responsibility’ over the missing jet that had ‘not been confirmed or corroborated’]

    There are people still claiming responsibility for assassinating JFK.

  8. Magic P

    You can refer to my post at 1421.

    I’m not really exaggerating you know if the Greens would happen to win the next federal election by miracle of course (re stock market) 😎

  12. bemused @1445

    As arrogant as it may sound of me, yes.

    Dr Henry is very very good at achieving the results that were required of him, however, if you start from a flawed premise, then you can reach the logically (or economically, in this case) correct conclusion, but still be incorrect. A budget surplus is not required, and should not be a target of any federal government. It should definitely not be considered the golden standard of economic governance, and we should not be basing the majority of our economic policy around achieving it.

    Centre @1437

    Recently, the IMF downgraded France’s economic credit rating, while keeping the UK’s the same. France has a projected debt-to-GDP ration that will decline over the coming years, whilst the UK’s will stay flat.

    The only difference between the two is the methods they are using to achieve debt reduction. France is raising taxes on the wealthy, whilst the UK is slashing government expenditure.

    It has nothing to do with fiscal responsibility.

    Paul Krugman has a very good article on this on his blog, I’ll see if I can find it.

  13. Jimmyhaz@1462

    bemused @1445

    As arrogant as it may sound of me, yes.

    Dr Henry is very very good at achieving the results that were required of him, however, if you start from a flawed premise, then you can reach the logically (or economically, in this case) correct conclusion, but still be incorrect. A budget surplus is not required, and should not be a target of any federal government. It should definitely not be considered the golden standard of economic governance, and we should not be basing the majority of our economic policy around achieving it.

    I am getting a whiff of Lyndon LaRouche thinking in your posts.

    But I agree for the foreseeable future a surplus should not be on the economic agenda.

  14. bemused

    I did not see the interview. However from news excerpts to ne he was talking about the need to fix structural reform. His comment of no hurry on the GST it would be better to wait seems to indicate this,

  15. I think the government should aim to deliver a budget surplus, as Swan used to say, at the end of the economic cycle.

    When the economy is growing at a desirable rate, then a government could look at a surplus.

    Abbott and Hockey are just wankers – that is all!

    *night

  16. If Henry is looking at revenue issues then its only natural that he would look at the GST, the current rate is fine, sure an argument could be made to expand it to cover education and maybe one or two other areas.

  17. While a fiscal surplus is not an end in itself but rather the result of setting the appropriate fiscal conditions for the time. It should be horses for courses. Having said that a country like Australia can’t continue to run budget deficits at current levels over the longer-term. We have to accept the reality that if we want the level of social programs proposed and planned for then as a whole community we have to fund it through some combination of tax reform.

    The problem is we want it all but no one wants to pay for it. Each sector and group says the others have to pay. End the end we will all have to pay in a fair and equitable manner.

    As a guide to when we probably should be getting close to budget surplus I suggest once growth recovers to at or above trend whenever that is likely to be.

    But we do need real tax reform and it has to be in the next term of parliament at the latest.

  19. I saw the interview with Ken Henry, and I thought the reporting of it on later news bulletins misrepresented him a bit, surprise surprise.
    The interviewer tried hard to get him to say the GST should rise, but he would not. He did say he was sure that it would rise, but asked if it needed to, he said he saw no necessity in the next few years. He also said that the Howard-Rudd tax cuts were in hindsight not sustainable, with the implication that they ought to be reversed. I had the impression that his preferred first option would be income tax rather than GST, but it was not reported that way.

  20. Sweden, Denmark and Norway have value-added taxes of 25% (discounted in the latter case to a mere 15% in the case of foodstuffs). Such countries are, needless to say, exemplars of the social democracy to which Australia should aspire – except apparently in this case.

  25. davidwh

    What caused the structural problems of the budget?

    Was it the GST?

    NO.

    It was UNSUSTAINABLE tax cuts at the period of a mining boom.

    So how now do you want to fix it?

    Oh yeah, place MORE cost of living pressures on the most vulnerable – the ones who received a jack-shit sandwich and a banana milk shake from Howard.

    Idiots!

    *asleep

  26. Magic Pudding @ 1469

    WOW!

    That’s exactly what I said. Of course that’s not what reporters want to hear.

    I withdraw what I said about Ken Henry earlier.

    *exited this time 4 sure 🙂

  27. Centre there were/are a range of causes to the structural deficit issue and yes income tax is part of the mix. So is increases in welfare at all income levels. Also I never suggested the GST is the solution however it should be considered as being in the list of possible reforms. It’s just short-sighted to say that discussion of GST reform is taboo forever.

  28. The GST should be abolished.

    It is a regressive tax.

    It was only proposed and finally introduced by conservative right wing governments because they were and still are too scared to propose or enact taxation from a basis of fairness equity and ability to pay.
    The screams would be heard in London.

    I should note that inequality and poverty in Australia are both increasing and drastically need addressing – but won’t be.

  29. Except the argument surrounding taxes, has become too clouded by both sides of the debate.

    Also, one spends, while the other sells.

  31. It’s probably a moot point anyway because I doubt any government will have the courage to seriously put proper tax reform on the agenda and the community as a whole lacks the maturity to discuss the issue effectively and is prone to reacting to fear, mostly perceived rather than real.

    Modern politics is killing any chance of mature debate.

  34. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Is Fiona Nash really THAT hopeless or is she merely an instrument?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fiona-nashs-decision-to-axe-drug-and-alcohol-adviser-has-cost-1-million-20140312-34mqs.html
    Michael Gordon describes Mesma as “befuddled”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/befuddled-julie-bishop-confuses-the-facts-over-sovereign-borders-20140312-34mq2.html
    Morriscum’s “stacked” panel on 457 visas.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/befuddled-julie-bishop-confuses-the-facts-over-sovereign-borders-20140312-34mq2.html
    Bernie Fraser on the climate change argument. “The bad guys won”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/mar/12/climate-change-body-chief-bad-guys-won-when-the-good-guys-lay-down
    Elizabeth Farelly praises Scott Ludlam’s speech and contrasts it to Abbott’s cynical style.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/scott-ludlams-speech–worth-paying-attention-to-20140312-34ml1.html
    David Marr explains how the Catholic church is still using the “Ellis defence” to protect its wealth.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/12/dont-ring-the-bells-yet-catholic-church-isnt-planning-to-open-wallet
    So much for Abbott’s “adrenalin rush if the Coalition gets elected”! Peter Martin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/economy-consumer-confidence-nosedives-20140312-34mq4.html

  35. Section 2 . . .

    MUST SEE! Alan Moir with a proud Popeye Abbott. Oh so true!

    Cathy Wilcox with a good one. (I’ve tried this with a specialist and it didn’t fly!)
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Pope has Abbott riding into the ACT on his crusade.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    MUST SEE! David Rowe with a beautiful depiction of Ken Henry and his wombats.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  36. [Is Fiona Nash really THAT hopeless or is she merely an instrument?]
    You do not need much brains to be a Sarah Palin clone. She is a country farmers wife who was a serial dog whistle blower in opposition. You could have asked the same question about Stephen Conroy in the Gillard cabonet. The answer is Yes in both cases.

  38. Ken Henry’s interview on 7.30 was excellent.

    You don’t have to agree with his point of view in all respects to find him impressive.

    I’m of 2 minds about the GST – I’d prefer to see progressive tax increases over the GST, but the GST did not prove to be the great devil for lower income earners that many on the left said it would be. Modest increases or broadening of the GST would not be a disaster for anyone and I think it probably is worth including in the mix to fix the revenue hole for government.

    He was very clear on the fact that the Feds and the States have a serious problem with lack of revenue, and particularly a lack of stable revenue, and he is clearly correct on this. He also made it quite clear that he didn’t think there was much to gain from trying to cut expenditure.

    On other topics Henry was, in his dry understated way, incredibly damning of the current government.

    He is acting as a free agent, not some patsy for this government. Disagree with what he says all you like (listen to him first, though!), but don’t accuse him of being part of some agenda.

  41. pom

    Ocean Protector – Yes, I can see it there on ‘Live Ships Map’.

    It was a lease until our actual owned version was built and delivered. That’s been in Sydney for some months and we can assume now accepted and delivered.

    OP will have a name change coming up now it’s back in its owners hands. Possibly revert to ‘MSV Skandi Bergen’.

  42. Socrates

    [I’m of 2 minds about the GST – I’d prefer to see progressive tax increases over the GST, but the GST did not prove to be the great devil for lower income earners that many on the left said it would be. Modest increases or broadening of the GST would not be a disaster for anyone and I think it probably is worth including in the mix to fix the revenue hole for government.]

    I’d broadly agree.

    Any maintainable system of raising funds for community purposes will work best when it

    a) raises funds from a broad range of usages
    b) settles burdens on a capacity to pay basis
    c) does not skew activity for or against a usage arbitrarily
    d) is simple to comply with and easy/cheap to enforce in near real time
    e) collects far more in revenue proportionately than the collection cost

    Consumption-based levies can fail b) and c) quite easily against the disadvantaged but these problems are open to fairly easy remedies through the transfer payments system. It’s a significant advantage that the system captures revenue from non income taxpayers such as tourists and may be especially useful during times when the currency is low against currencies held by jurisdictions from which Australia draws significant numbers of visitors.

    Subject to provision of this type, I have no basic objection to increasing the G&ST modestly, or even to broadening its scope to include usages not currently included — such as books, food, health, education and so forth. One would need to ensure that new funds raised in these areas were returned in an equitable and efficient way to those who were disadvantaged either in cash or service.

  44. This story highlights an interesting social conflict in Israel. Ultra orthodox jew are (finally) losing their exemption from military service. It was ruled unconstitutional two years ago.
    [Israel’s parliament has approved legislation that will end exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students.]
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26542316

  45. What a GST can’t do (assuming we stick to the idea of a common rate being applied across goods and services) but which a wholesale tax can quite elegantly is ‘reward and punish’ consumers by applying a variable rate.

    For example, instead of public awareness campaigns, labelling and other indirect and sometimes clumsy methods, we could apply a tax to foods according to their nutritional benefits, with money raised going back to health services.

    Or, if there’s sound evidence that a particular trade is not paying its fair share of tax (because it’s operating cash in hand, for example) you can target items essential to their trade and recoup money that way.

    The GST doesn’t have that flexibility.

  47. Fran

    I cannot claim credit for Jackol’s views on the GST, but broadly agree with both of you. The GST can be effective in reducing regressive aspects of taxation, because it is so hard for wealthy individuals with low taxable income to avoid. This includes some pensioners who are asset millionaires. They need to pay more. I would be happy for the GST to be increased in exchange for a simple increase in the tax free threshold.

    Also the GST exemptions, while well intended, have led to distorions. We see all sorts of executive retreat nonsense branded as “education”. End the exemptions and compensate instead.

  48. z
    The administrative overheads for GST exemptions, variable rates depending on quality and variable rates depending on the status of the purchaser, and the like, are very large.

  49. Frightening how the whole “boats” issue has vanished from the media except for the odd lone voice.

    Australian’s in general are obviously comfortable with their government running prison camps.

  50. Fran, thanks for the link. This use of the Government plane by Gillard is no better than what Brandis did.
    [The log also shows that return flights for Ms Gillard and her former chief spin doctors, John McTernan and Eamonn Fitzpatrick from Canberra to NSW north coast town of Ballina in March cost $8970. The visit coincided with the Byron Bay wedding of Ms Gillard’s press secretary Laura Anderson and former treasurer Wayne Swan’s chief of staff, Jim Chalmers.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/how-the-sleepy-tasmanian-town-of-wynyard-became-part-of-the-pork-barrel-shuttle-20140312-34mkf.html#ixzz2vmi18c5m

    Gillard was no doubt nicer to her factional friends than Rudd. But she was certainly not more ethical.

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