Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

After the last result gave Labor its biggest lead of any poll since the election of the Abbott government, the latest fortnightly Newspoll has come in closer to trend.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.

UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.

UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,524 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 31
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  3. Confessions

    We can safely assume that the police have had to respond because of the witness who went to the media about the saga.

  5. confessions

    Any excuse that the WAPolice have come up with to date, do not pass the commonsense test. As just mentioned, the witness who initially reported the matter to police has made further noises in light of the secrecy surrounding buswell’s absence. Therefore WAPolice, and the Emperor had to respond.

  6. victoria:

    I have no doubt that the only reason Buswell resigned is because the true story got out. I imagine if the West hadn’t broken the reports of the drinking and the wedding and the crash that he’d still be in the ministry.

  8. confessions

    Barnett told the media to respect Buswell’s privacy from the get go. Which they dutifully did. Until the continued secrecy got the better of everyone. The witness had a story to tell the media, and hey bingo the excuses get rolled out

  14. Report in The Age re Leighton

    Corruption in the construction industry? Who would have thought?
    ===========================================

    Those bloody Unions……

  16. Didn’t follow the reasoning for W.A. police not knowing whose address they were at or whose car it was, but in a different state I was pulled over by a bike cop for a breath test about a year ago. With the technology he had with him it took about 20 seconds for him to know more about my vehicle’s history & ownership than I did.

  17. Victoria,

    [Acerbic Conehead

    Buswell would love this interpretation of driver’s seat. :D]

    I’m determined to see that Troy gets some justice here.

  18. BSA

    [Didn’t follow the reasoning for W.A. police not knowing whose address they were at or whose car it was]

    I think Buswell got lucky – The car is registered to a government agency (to find out who it was allocated to would have required them to be able to contact the agency at 1:30 in the morning -bugger all chance of that!).

  20. I think that there might be a good chance pics of Buswells attendance and his sobriety at a certain wedding would not be too hard to find in this day and age.

    That’s if someone (particularly someone in the media) went looking for them.

  22. [ I think Buswell got lucky ]

    Be interesting to see if they try to rehabilitate him 12 months or so down the track.

    But no one wanted to get to the bottom of it all. Arse covering when it become public.

    WA coppers looking hopeless at best.

  23. dave

    [Arse covering when it become public.

    WA coppers looking hopeless at best.]

    Yep. That’s the only reason they were out taking photos.

  26. Tim W ‏@Blueirons 1h
    @randlight @flyinemu Indeed. Jay Leno once said that Santorum is so conservative that when he goes to KFC he only orders right wings 🙂

    Love this tweet on the lovely Santorum and his endorsement of Abbott

  27. CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 11, 2014 at 9:28 am | PERMALINK
    dave

    Arse covering when it become public.

    WA coppers looking hopeless at best.

    Yep. That’s the only reason they were out taking photos.

    Oh no I had a lecture last night on Twitter the cops are good in WA their top guy is wonderful, when I asked how the tweeter knows all this became very upset and said she knew him personally, started crying to her supporters about me and many other tweeters challenging her. Quite a night 🙂

  29. According to one of Zoomster’s criteria for who she holds in contempt…

    Zoomster appears to have popped in and run away.

    She needs to hold herself in contempt 😉

    Apologies, but if she is going to make such comments she has to expect some feedback 😆

    Though she didn’t have the guts to name me or anyone else, we all know she meant me.

  30. peg

    [The number of times you have claimed wtte Where are the Greens, they have said nothing on..? ]

    Usually on the basis of having searched their website/s.

    Despite frantic attempts to contradict my claims, I can’t recall a single instance where I’ve been shown to be wrong (because I do this thing called ‘research’) — and in fact, a couple of prominent Greens have conceded the point and agreed that they need to lift their game.

    My bete noirs are windfarms and cattle on the High Plains. Given that the latter is back in the news, you’re welcome to post the reams of media releases, press statements etc the Greens have made on this issue.

  31. CTar1

    The best part of Q&A were when Brandis’ statements of “fact” were treated with gusts of laughter from the audience. Better than any argument with him.

  32. CTar1

    [ Uncle Colin looking very uncomfortable ]

    Almost up to ‘Oscar’ standard.

    But the fix is in, media fading etc along with the reputation of WA coppers.

    But they’ll be right on the ball if a Laborite comes into their frame.

  33. lizzie – I’ve only seen the replayed bits on the news. Looks like he got hammered. 😀

    Can’t stand Tony Jones so I don’t watch it.

  35. CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 11, 2014 at 9:48 am | PERMALINK
    mari – I’m no Lib defender but I can understand how this happened.

    I can a bit but a straight out whitewash by the tweeter I and others could not accept!

  36. peg

    No, I went into town to do some shopping. I’m not talking about people who go away for a couple of hours…that’s called having a life.

    As for your paranoia, it’s only partly true — there’s several in that category, and one who has recently redeemed themselves and got out of it (doesn’t mean I like them, just that I’m not contemptuous of them).

  38. CTar1@133

    lizzie – I’ve only seen the replayed bits on the news. Looks like he got hammered.

    Can’t stand Tony Jones so I don’t watch it.

    Oh you poor precious petal. You missed a good show. 😆
    Should be on iView if you manage to harden up a bit.

  41. CTar1 @ 118
    Yair, I thought much the same about it being all too hard to look up anything about government vehicles. What a shoddy affair this is,enquiry seemingly sandbagged at every point.

  44. zoomster,

    [Usually on the basis of having searched their website/s.]

    Rather a narrow view of evidence to support your assertions.

    [Despite frantic attempts to contradict my claims, I can’t recall a single instance where I’ve been shown to be wrong (because I do this thing called ‘research’)]
    That’s right, you are always right.

    Of course your research skills are beyond question.
    [ — and in fact, a couple of prominent Greens have conceded the point and agreed that they need to lift their game.]
    😆 Unamed sources good enough for you but not for anyone else.

    We will just take your word on it, shall wwe.
    [My bete noirs are windfarms and cattle on the High Plains. Given that the latter is back in the news, you’re welcome to post the reams of media releases, press statements etc the Greens have made on this issue.]

    We have danced this dance so many times. You disregarded what I presented then so pardon me if I do not want to go over the same ole same ole.

    Biased media reporting, including no media coverage, is okay as an excuse for Labor but not for the Greens 😉

  46. zoomster,
    [No, I went into town to do some shopping. I’m not talking about people who go away for a couple of hours…that’s called having a life.]
    “Having a life” is okay for zoomster, but not for others.

    I am absent for 7 months. Apparently, according to you I am re-posting because “there is an election in the air”. Perhaps I “have a life too” 😉 but that wouldn’t be acceptable to you as you wanted to make an innuendo.

    [As for your paranoia, it’s only partly true — there’s several in that category, and one who has recently redeemed themselves and got out of it (doesn’t mean I like them, just that I’m not contemptuous of them).]

    I am not the one suffering from paranoia, but thanks for your diagnosis, which in your mind you are eminently qualified to make.

  48. mmm..
    [I am not the one suffering from paranoia, but thanks for your diagnosis, which in your mind you are eminently qualified to make.]
    As I know I am not qualified to make such a diagnosis of myself, perhaps I am 😆

  49. bemused. CTar1

    Last night TJones actually argued with Brandis, and the new lass at the Australian showed she has guts as well as brains. It was the best for a while.

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