GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49 after a blowout to 54-46 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two), 35% for Labor (down four) and 11% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report, which just maybe reads excessive political import into what’s actually statistical noise. Although it could indeed be telling that Bill Shorten’s ratings have again gone down despite a better set of numbers for Labor on voting intention.
UPDATE 2: Leader ratings have Tony Abbott up two on approval to 38% and down two on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 33% and up four to 43%. Tony Abbott makes a solid gain on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-37 to 42-36.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): Essential Research is 50-50, after the Coalition hit the lead 51-49 last week. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 42%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 38% and 8%, and the Palmer United Party up one to 4%. The monthly personal ratings have Bill Shorten up two on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 39%, Tony Abbott down one to 40% and steady on 47%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 40-30 to 39-33. A question on Qantas shows respondents react negatively to the words “jobs being sent offshore”, 62% pressing the “disapprove” button despite the qualification of it happening improving the airline’s “profitability and long-term success”, while only 25% opted for approve. Fifty-nine per cent think foreign ownership would be bad for Australian jobs and 46% bad for the economy, versus 16% and 24% good. However, it would be thought good for Qantas profits by a margin of 48-19, and good for air travellers by 30-25.
UPDATE 4 (Morgan): The latest Morgan poll, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2903 by face-to-face and SMS surveying, has a bounce in Labor’s lead from 50.5-49.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is a slightly more moderate 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preferences. The Coalition is down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39.5%, Labor is up 1.5% to 37%, the Greens are up 1.5% to 12%, and the Palmer United Party is up half a point to 4%. Morgan has taken to including state breakdowns on two-party preferred, the latest set having Labor ahead 55-45 in New South Wales, 57-43 in Victoria and 51.5-48.5 in Queensland, while the Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia, 52.5-47.5 in South Australia and 52.5-47.5 in Tasmania.
If Hollywood are working on it we will probably end up with a 21st Century version of Gilligan’s Island.
Watched Mad as hell. Half way through the show, there was some very funny sketches re Abbott.
Shaun Micallef’s MAD AS HELL Episode 5
http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/82894732
There is a much more detailed explanation of what is/is not known about flight 370 on Ben Sandilands Plane Talking blog. He knows far more about aviation than I do. Night all.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/03/12/mh370-day-five-and-a-new-last-possible-radar-fix/
Socrates@1398
[Over-the-horizon radar, or OTH (sometimes also beyond the horizon, or BTH), is a type of radar system with the ability to detect targets at very long ranges, typically up to thousands of kilometres. Several OTH radar systems were deployed starting in the 1950s and 60s as part of early warning radar systems, but these have generally been replaced by airborne early warning systems instead. OTH radars have recently been making something of a comeback, as the need for accurate long-range tracking becomes less important with the ending of the Cold War, and less-expensive ground based radars are once again being looked at for roles such as maritime reconnaissance and drug enforcement. ]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-horizon_radar
[Australia
Official coverage of the Jindalee Operational Radar Network.
A more recent addition is the Jindalee Operational Radar Network developed by the Australian Department of Defence in 1998 and completed in 2000. It is operated by No. 1 Radar Surveillance Unit of the Royal Australian Air Force. Jindalee is a multistatic radar (multiple-receiver) system using OTH-B, allowing it to have both long range as well as anti-stealth capabilities. It has an official range of 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) but in 1997 the prototype was able to detect missile launches by China over 5,500 kilometres (3,400 mi) away.
Jindalee uses 560 kW as compared to the US’s OTH-B’s 1 MW, yet offers far better range than the US 1980s system, due to the considerably improved electronics and signal processing. ]
Australia’s radar coverage for defence purposes (graphic)
Socrates@1398
There are over the horizon radars such as Australia’s very own Jindalee http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_Operational_Radar_Network
but I doubt Malaysia or any other country in the region has anything like it.
I would have thought conventional radar would have a range greater than 150km if an aircraft was at 35,000 ft.
Ken Henry says GST must rise
http://www.theage.com.au/national/gst-must-rise-says-exhead-of-treasury-ken-henry-20140312-34n0i.html
Centre @1392
I’m not a Green, but what exact policy would cause the market to capitulate like that?
Also, Ken Henry is a total moron.
@Victoria/1406
Was this in the Henry Review?
I seem to remember liberals sprucing GST Rise, by saying GST will be included in the review.
I was told by someone not from an aviation background but apparently planes flown below a certain height can’t be tracked but i do find it hard to believe the plane has flown over Malaysia without being seen.
Back when the story first broke Channel Nine news made a comment which i have not heard mentioned anywhere else but according to them the plane before disappearing went some 200 meters off course but i have not heard this mentioned anywhere else.
Jimmyhaz@1408
You must be a Green to say that.
Ken henry interview on 7.30
7.30 12/3/2014
http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/80257792
Zoidlord
Not sure
Don 1404
Thanks, interesting. Like I said, i only know the basics about civilian transport air traffic radars, which are much more limited. I wonder if the Aussie military are checking their Jindalee tracking records now?
bemused @1411
No, someone that actually understands the economy.
Any ‘revenue’ that is raised by a broadening of the GST will be more than offset by the lack of economic activity caused by the decrease of disposable income in the lower classes.
If the government wants to raise more of the money that it creates, then it should do so through a progressive taxation scheme, not a completely regressive one.
[Also, Ken Henry is a total moron.]
Then why did Howard and Costello keep him as Treasury Sec for their entire period in office?
So why was Ken Henry up on 7:30? I’m assuming it’s drum up support for Tax, GST etc.
[Telecoms expert Alan Spencer told MailOnline that if the phones are really ringing, they can categorically not be under the sea.
He added that the phones will only be ringing if they are ‘switched on, not in water, the battery is charged, and [they are] near a mobile cell site.’
This means that if the phones are genuinely ringing, the plane needs to have landed on land – not in the sea – and be in a location where there is cell service, rather than landing in the middle of a jungle, for example.]
Socrates@1413
The official Jindalee tracking does not cover the area where the plane disappeared. But that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t do it, their official and unofficial coverages may well be quite different.
There have been two definite cases of civilian airliners being accidentally shot down by military action. One was the Iranian plane the US shot down flying over the Gulf, and the other was a Ukrainian plane shot down over the Black Sea by the Russians (or vice versa, I don’t remember). In those circumstances, of course, the responsible government will tend to go very quiet. So it could be Malaysia, Vietnam or … China. Which government recently announced an aviation exclusion zone in the South China Sea??
This might be a native comment but besides the cities and farming areas isn’t pretty much all of South-East Asian jungle
Jimmyhaz @ 1407
They need to keep away from the banks, ignore the mining industry and energy sector and keep hands off coy tax… for starters. The entire system of capitalism would be under threat.
Still, it’s as worth entertaining the thought as a good horror movie 😀
Yep,the softening up for tax rises has begun
Jimmyhaz@1414
A point he made in favour of the GST ws that it was relatively stable whereas other taxes, particularly state taxes were not.
So what are your credentials giving you a better understanding of the economy than Ken Henry?
The one positive of checking the Australian radar is it might rule out the plane flying south, i image if it went north it would have been seen at some point as there are many populated areas thus it has gone down in the south China Sea or somehow reached the Indian or Pacific Oceans.
Dee@1417
Allen Spencer doesn’t seem to understand the concept that the telco decides whether to send a ring tone back to the caller, even though the phone is uncontactable, and is not ringing, or has been smashed to smithereens, then it goes to voicemail if the software on the telco and the phone itself has been set up that way.
Socrates @1415
Because Howard and Costello don’t understand the economy.
The idea of our government isn’t to post a surplus (which would be destroying more money than it places into the economy).
Don
Could they track the location via phones?
The government can produce a surplus but the economic conditions need to allow for it too occur.
Only 17% of our federal budgets have ever been in surplus
Well I think I have the answer. It flew off course into the Chinese exclusion zone, and an over-zealous local Chinese commander shot it down.
[ The article said they sometimes don’t find small aircraft but they have always found commercial planes of this size. Up until now. ]
Not as big but there’s a 727 that has been missing for over 10 years without a trace
Don is right, one of my mates appeared to be snubbing phone calls and when i caught up with him he said nah the phone was dropped and smashed and he showed me the phone and sure enough it was smashed.
[I would have thought conventional radar would have a range greater than 150km if an aircraft was at 35,000 ft.]
AWACS like the Australian Wedgetail have “advertised” ranges of about 200nm against a 4th gen fighter size target. So, around 350 – 400km or better would be very plausible against a 777.
Rumored range of Jindalee puts the area the MAS flight was in range. But, who knows what data they keep and for how long??
Strikes me that whatever has happened, happened when no-one was really looking or tracking with anything that does more than take a transponder position.
paaptsef
Haven heard about that plane, when did that happen?
mb 2003
http://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/the-727-that-vanished-2371187/?no-ist
Thanks paaptsef
[Could they track the location via phones?]
Yup, they would at least see what cell they are registering in.
[It flew off course into the Chinese exclusion zone, and an over-zealous local Chinese commander shot it down.]
And they vacuumed up aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall the bits so no-one would notice?? Bunning Carstards Wot!!
So according to Ken Henry, the GST will need to rise to tackle structural problems in the budget?
Yet on the other hand, Henry blames tax cuts imposed by the Howard and Rudd governments for putting considerable pressure on the budget.
Two points:
1. Henry should have the GUTS to blame Howard for the tax cuts during a mining boom where now without a mining boom, structural pressure is constructed on the budget.
I’m sick of MORONS being too gutless to criticise the Libs without the need to criticise Labor equally.
Henry should stop being gutless!
2. Umm HELLO.
If tax cuts imposed by Howard and supposedly Rudd were the cause of structural problems in the budget – it gives that those tax cuts should be reversed without putting pressure on the cost of living and the economy with an increase in the GST.
Get REAL!
Henry is half a LOON supporter anyway.
bemused @1423
My credential’s? Formally nonexistant, at least until the end of this year.
Even if the government was required to post a surplus, and needed a broader revenue base, I’m not sure you could possibly argue that the GST is more stable than income taxes.
mexican @1428
There’s a reason for that, the economic condition’s required are those which are basically impossible. Costelle et al sold off $130 billion worth of asset’s, posted a surplus, and consistently underperformed the OECD average in employment and economic growth.
[And they vacuumed up aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall the bits so no-one would notice?? ]
Since they knew exactly where it went down, they could have done a quick clean-up before anyone noticed, yes.
jimmyhaz @ 1414
Absolutely spot on!
Vic state gov minister to resign
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/minister-in-shock-resignation-ahead-of-cabinet-reshuffle-20140312-34mc7.html
So harsh cuts in May budget, and then tax rises in following budget.
Or perhaps both at same time.
From an article I happened to read on Wired yesterday, making me an instant authority on such matters:
[Still, if a plane goes down, it’s gotta land somewhere, which means there should be something out there. But after three days of searching, investigators still hadn’t found any sign of the plane. This is unusual, but not unprecedented.
The most obvious explanation is search and rescue vessels aren’t looking in the right place because they aren’t sure where the plane went down, Smith said.]
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/malaysia-air/
jimmyhaz
I don’t think its impossible if we had financial managers who knew what they were doing which doesn’t hold much hope for this lot.
Jimmyhaz@1438
I see, so you are doing an Economics Degree and rate yourself better than a PhD with many years experience in economic policy?
Well I hope you won’t mind if I give more weight Dr Henry’s opinions.
BTW, I hold a BEc and have tutored in economics.
Psephos
The plane lost contact while still in Malaysian air space.
1439
Any possibly disguised the clean-up vessels as search ships.
Only this possible mystery low altitude flight across to the western side of Malaysia counts against your Chinese Air Defence overreaction theory.
Centre @ 1392
The Greens are for sure not going to form government any time soon. If they ever do, it will be the end of a slow, gradual process. The first couple of steps have been taken, with solid representation in the Senate, and the odd lower house seat picked up. If they have the stamina to stay the course, they will need to slowly increase lower house seats, perhaps win a State government, perhaps be part of more coalitions. They would need to broaden their appeal and probably move toward the political centre, which they have already been doing. It will take decades, and they run the risk all the time of being replaced by some newer group.
If the Greens were suddenly elected now, I am sure the stock market would react badly, though I think you exaggerate. After all, there are stock markets operating in countries such as Sudan and Syria. But we’ll never know since it won’t happen. If and when the Greens win an election, they will have had substantial representation in the previous parliament, will probably have been the Opposition for a term or two, and will have policies which do not scare the population. Their victory or at least the possibility of it will have been predicted for months and the market will have factored it in; there would be no sudden shock.
Incidentally, can you point out the Green policy which would have businessmen abandoning their holdings to go and live in a cave? As far as I can see, they are a fairly unremarkable centre-left party with slightly greater emphasis on the environment than the majors. Their biggest policy difference at present would be over treatment of refugees, and while a more open door policy might upset a lot of voters, my impression is that business would mostly consider it a good thing.
Don’t know why 10 countries are involved looking for the plane, Rupert knew what happened three days ago
[Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch Mar 9
777crash confirms jihadists turning to make trouble for China. Chance for US to make common cause, befriend China while Russia bullies.]
[Since they knew exactly where it went down, they could have done a quick clean-up before anyone noticed, yes.]
Ah, but their cunning plan to be brought undone when bloated bodies float to the surface and wash up on Ko Samui at the next full moon party.