BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

The latest poll aggregate puts Labor back in parliamentary majority territory, as a new result from ReachTEL makes the Coalition’s strong result from Nielsen a fortnight ago look still more like an anomaly.

Following on from the thumping Labor lead in last week’s Newspoll, the addition of the latest ReachTEL to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate causes Labor to regain nearly all the ground it lost on the back of last fortnight’s Nielsen. However, with new contrary signals emerging through a shift back to the Coalition in Essential Research, it’s perhaps telling that the two-party trendline (displayed as always on the sidebar) looks as though it’s not sure which way to turn. Labor is now back into majority territory on the national seat projection, having picked up three seats each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and a further one in the territories (i.e. Solomon). It’s interesting to note that the state breakdowns show emphatic swings to Labor except where they govern at state level, at least until next Saturday’s elections. On the primary vote, Labor makes a gain this week directly at the expense of the Coalition, while the Palmer United Party is up slightly on a post-election low last week. There is no new data for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,396 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 62 of 68
1 61 62 63 68
  1. “@nickharmsen: The Electoral Commissioner has issued a misleading statement on whether electoral material was misleading. #savotes”

    “@nickharmsen: And Nick Xenophon has wrongly accused Labor of wrongly accusing him that he was wrong on the issue of penalty rates. #savotes”

  2. Confessions et al

    The resignation from parliament will probably come in a few months when the dust has settled.
    Again won’t make much difference as it is a safe as houses Tory seat. I daresay there are some hopefuls working the phones already

  3. The resignation from parliament will probably come in a few months when the dust has settled.

    Buswell has been rehabilitated from all his past transgressions … what’s to say the LNP don’t bring him back in from the cold after a few months, particularly given the reported dearth of talent the LNP has to choose from…

  4. If Troy Buswell is in a clinic in Sydney, he must be unwell so he should be left alone. He will take time to recover.

    How long can he be absent from Parliament before his seat is declared vacant?

  5. rua

    [How long can he be absent from Parliament before his seat is declared vacant?]

    Now back in Perth and will attend Parliament next week so it’s said.

  6. Jackol

    As bereft of talent as the wa Tories are, it is hard to see buswell coming back from this. As well as the car crash there is obviously a deeper issue.

  7. its probably a bit early for the insomniacal soviets here to be in full conspiratorial flight however while they suspect all things anti putin like american intelligence has the news that america is bolstering goodwill to the baltic states suggest that they might every reason to fear the meglomaniacal profoundly corrupt psychopathic tyrant who currently rules russia. it might well be good he has played his hand so openly so soon. who knows what is secretly known about his intentions to rule russian as it once was when his non political career as a operative peaked. the man is bad news and one can only hope this is the beginning of his end and the beginning of a lost overdue regime of freedom and democracy in russia – or are such things just neo com propaganda as paine and deblaney seem to think?

  8. [Now back in Perth and will attend Parliament next week so it’s said.]

    If this is the case I withdraw my earlier statement, the man is a scoundrel, nobody recovers that quickly.

  9. Ruawake
    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 4:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Now back in Perth and will attend Parliament next week so it’s said.

    If this is the case I withdraw my earlier statement, the man is a scoundrel, nobody recovers that quickly.

    Love that a “Scoundrel ” what a description

  10. ruawake@3065

    Now back in Perth and will attend Parliament next week so it’s said.


    If this is the case I withdraw my earlier statement, the man is a scoundrel, nobody recovers that quickly.

    Correct.
    But they routinely get discharged from Psych wards without having recovered.

  11. rua – It sounds to me that rather than a ‘breakdown’ what Buswell needed was a severe drying out.

    Having him in a Perth hospital would not have ‘optimal’.

    A Keystone Cops incident, I say.

  12. Geoffrey

    The problem with your model in Russia is that the “All the way with USA” model was tried and was an abject failure. A drunken President, rampant takeover of assets concentrated into the hands of a few oligarchs, mass unemployment, falling living standards and loss of national pride. A recipe for disaster.

    It is hardly surprising therefore that Putin still has popular support. Despite his faults.

  13. Russia

    No doubt he is a scoundrel who has been given more chances than most by the Tories. Some of his stunts would have been instant dismissal in most workplaces but there are always different rules for some.

  14. “@abcnews: #BREAKING: A powerful 6.9-magnitude earthquake has stuck off the coast of northern California, the US Geological Survey reported”

  15. Continuous disclosure is such a fail on the ASX.

    I have some Leightons shares so I was sort of keeping an eye on their price – they’d struggled for the last year, but then the price shot up last week. It caught the attention of the ASX that sent Leightons a ‘please explain’ on Friday to which Leightons replied, officially, “there’s nothing that anyone needs to know that we haven’t announced”.

    Then, today, it’s officially announced that Leightons’ parent is making an offer for shares in Leightons that it doesn’t already hold – an offer well above what Leightons was trading at up until recently.

    Clearly continuous disclosure is a total failure – Leightons must have been aware that Hochtief was planning this, but presumably it was all “commercial in confidence” until today’s announcement, but the info clearly leaked last week resulting in the insiders buying up stock. Leightons was lying through its teeth when it said there was no material information, but it probably wasn’t legally allowed to disclose the deal at that time, so I guess lying to the ASX is preferable…

    But the whole notion that mum and dad investors have a chance of playing on an even playing field with respect to the stock exchange is just a nonsense clearly.

  16. geoffrey

    deblonay and TP belong firmly to the anti-American, ‘anti-imperialist’ (except when Russia does it) ‘left’. They do not care how wantonly Russia breaks international law or how much of a backwards, semi-fascist authoritarian Putin and his Russian Orthodox homophobe buddies are, all they care about is the maxim “the enemy (Russia) of my enemy (the USA) is my friend”.

    I’m sure they both yearn for the days of Stalin and the USSR and deep down are pretty pissed off all they have to shower praise on is an ex-KGB gangster like Putin. That said, a useful idiot is a useful idiot.

    Anyway. Rest assured you’re not the only one who has noticed. I just tend to ignore it.

  17. daretotread
    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 4:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Geoffrey

    The problem with your model in Russia is that the “All the way with USA” model was tried and was an abject failure. A drunken President, rampant takeover of assets concentrated into the hands of a few oligarchs, mass unemployment, falling living standards and loss of national pride. A recipe for disaster.

    It is hardly surprising therefore that Putin still has popular support. Despite his faults.

    ——–thanks but i see no difference between yeltsin and putin – except the latter is sober (sometimes) and much more dangerous. russia has never in its history experienced an open society such as applies in more of western europe and its time its people had a chance. there is no excuse for putin – firing an interballistic missile while invading a foreigh country. pllleeeaasee.

  18. [Continuous disclosure is such a fail on the ASX.]

    Well it certainly looks like “LU agrees with Jackol” day!

    This is a disgrace – soft corruption is just not taken seriously in our country. All this “transparency and accountability to ensure the public’s faith in the market” is cheap talk, it’s all palaver.

  19. [Almost 38,000 Australian passports went missing last year.

    Reports that two of the 239 people aboard a missing Malaysia Airlines flight were travelling on stolen passports has fuelled terrorism fears.
    The episode has also highlighted flaws in global passport and airport security.

    The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade says 37,720 Australian passports were reported lost or stolen in the 2012-13 financial year.

    The vast majority — about 75 per cent — went missing on Australian soil. Most of the others went missing in popular tourist locations like Paris, Madrid, Rome, London, Los Angeles and Bangkok.]

    http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/dfat-says-38000-australian-passports-went-missing-last-year/story-fnizu68q-1226850434844

  20. daretotread – I did not say or think all the way with usa – I was talking about principles of parliamentary democracy that work fallibly but generally orderly in most of world esp in west but not in russia. tyranny is tyranny. we hve fought it for 1000 years and should not give up now.

  21. Absolute twaddle
    You may have a point BUT the same must be said of all the pro US people.

    Russia’s most appalling act in the last 50 years was the invasion of Afghanistan. Problem is the USA repeated it with bells on and then again in Iraq.

    If you condemn Russian acts then also condemn Israel and the USA etc.

    Now I have a problem with the current government of Ukraine, because it was an overthrow by violence. I support democracy. I ONLY support revolution when democratic option is not available. There was just 12 months or so to an election. The west should have intervened to insist upon elections in Ukraine, NOT to support a self installed government. The message that sends to all emerging (and even secure) democracies is that street violence is an alternative to the ballot box. This will come back to bite a lot of people in the west on the bum.

  22. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/10/political-donations-worth-75000-disputed-by-federal-labor-party?CMP=twt_gu

    [The analysis reveals a string of undeclared donations and errors in donor declarations and shows how the Electoral Act allows donors and parties to obscure the true extent of their donations.

    Political parties are required by law to disclose any donations received over a certain threshold, which in 2012-13 was $12,100. Guardian Australia compared all declarations made by donors to all declarations made by political parties and found significant discrepancies between the two.]

    Don’t be fooled by the headline. Not just Labor donations.

  23. DTT

    The people of Ukraine overthrew a budding dictatorial tyrant.

    All he had to do was go to elections instead of fleeing the country

  24. Remember, if it’s okay for Russia to invade Crimea because most of its citizens are ethnically Russian, then it’s okay for South Korea to invade North Korea – or vice versa – for the same reason. Also means it’s alright for the PRC to invade Taiwan (or vice-versa with SHOCK HORROR US support).

    I’m not sure I’m 100% on board with the “ethnicity’s everything” approach to national borders and international affairs, in short.

  25. So, Buswell has totally fwarked his political career, and is remarkably lucky that he didn’t kill someone driving home newted from that wedding. What is it with Liberals and weddings??

    Anyhow, i cant help but think that if it was anyone other than Buswell they would have had the book thrown at them by now and been charged with drink driving. Can you imaging if it had been an ALP member?? Even a sniff of that and it would have been all over the news 24/7, and if he /she was having “issues” they would simply have been told to toughen up.

    According to reports the car is in his driveway, damaged. Right, its a publicly owned vehicle. Where is the report accounting for how that damage to public property occurred? Can you imaging the amount of manure a lower level public servant would be under if they had gotten sloshed, damaged their publicly funded vehicle as a result, and then hidden that fact for a couple of weeks with the vehicle out of commission?? Ok, Buswell is a serial stuff up and has notoriously poor judgement. That’s somehow some sort of mitigating circumstance??

    Resigning as a minister is the LEAST that has to happen. Resigning from Parliament should be next before he faces charges on the matter, AND fixes the car.

    Unless of course the Fibs reckon they can resurrect him??

  26. I doubt Buswell has any psych problems.

    The ‘mental health’ claim is used and abused by too many people in public life these days – political, sporting, celebrities.

    Mental health is a serious matter and I’m tired of people hiding behind it to cover their poor public behaviour.

  27. Geoffrey

    I am pretty sure there were elections in Russia. I am also pretty sure that if you analyzed the Russian and the US election for President, they would come out pretty much equal on all principles of democracy. They would differ of course but taken together there would not be much difference. Indeed Russia may come out ahead.

    On the other hand there obviously WERE NOT elections in Ukraine and until such time as there are free and fair elections I think all nations should assume the current regime is a temporary care taker mob with almost no legitimacy. Immediate elections is what is needed.

    Strangely enough this is just what Russia is giving the Crimea. I think each province of Ukraine should be given in the option to choose between staying in the Ukraine, becoming a separate state or joining Russia. Pretty simple really. I support the vote for separation in Scotland and Ireland too. ie the people must be allowed to make the choice.

    Obviously the issue of frank and public NAZIs in the current Unraine regime is a concern, but if they are elected fairly, then we need to live with it.

  28. [The celebrity fitness guru Michelle Bridges has said she is “outraged” by the assistant health minister intervening to pull down a healthy food rating website, and by the “disproportionate” influence of junk food companies on Canberra.

    Bridges used her Sunday Life column to urge people to write to the prime minister supporting a healthy food rating system and website and objecting to the influence of junk food companies.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/10/michelle-bridges-urges-junk-food-action-over-fiona-nash-health-rating-scandal

  29. daretotread

    “I am pretty sure there were elections in Russia. I am also pretty sure that if you analyzed the Russian and the US election for President, they would come out pretty much equal on all principles of democracy. They would differ of course but taken together there would not be much difference. Indeed Russia may come out ahead.”

    Pretty much every Russian opposition party disagrees with you, as do a range of NGOs.

  30. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/10/media-laws-should-serve-everyone-not-just-the-moguls?CMP=soc_568

    ….Labor will be an interesting player to watch in all this. Having been so bruised and pounded by its efforts to come at the same set of problems with a contentious regulatory solution – having been pounded by News Corp during the last federal election – will it fold and let the Abbott government have its head? ….

    So, what’s it to be Bill ?

  31. shellbell@3092

    Buswell sounds like Jeff Shaw QC in 2004 but he had left politics and gone to the bench

    shellbell

    Is there an increased use/ attempted use of ‘mental illness’ as a defence or to reduce sentences?

  32. The real question is how will Clive’s band of united unrepresentative swill vote on it?

    It is an interesting question, although one I think the ALP would be wary of putting too much faith in the answer.

    Clive, whatever else he may be, is not a media mogul and isn’t ever likely to be, so he’s not a direct beneficiary of relaxing ownership restrictions.

    More to the point he clearly hates Murdoch with a passion.

    PUP could well vote against any such package.

    But yeah, that may or may not have any utility for the ALP, and certainly you wouldn’t want to be relying on Clive for any significant political strategy…

    If the ALP want to have a go at making an issue out of it there might be some points to score and obstruction to be caused (if the ALP wants to be obstructionist).

    On the other hand you kind of need to pick your battles, and I’m not sure this is one that the ALP will want to be fighting.

  33. Absolute Twaddle

    I am certainly no friend of the Putin regime, which is violent and reactionary and doubtless a kleptocracy as well. For all I know it may have even less claim to legitimacy than governance in the US.

    That said it does seem clear that the people of the Crimea, which until 1954 was not part of Ukraine do wish to be part of Russia. Given that there has just been a Ukrainian nationalist coup in the Ukraine aimed primarily at ridding the country of Russian influence and in which neo-Nazis are non-trivial participants one can easily see legitimate reasons for Russian intervention.

  34. The ALP were happy to look at relaxing cross media ownership rules in the last attempt at media regulation. Kerry Stokes was not and he let it be known.

    Abbott will do nothing on media ownership, he needs to keep all 3 onside.

Comments Page 62 of 68
1 61 62 63 68

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *