ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

After a fortnight in which Nielsen found the Coalition back in front and Newspoll found Labor further ahead than ever, the monthly result from ReachTEL has Labor maintaining the lead it recorded in the previous poll a month ago.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a ReachTEL poll, which I take to be its monthly poll for the Seven Network, has Labor’s lead unchanged on a month ago at 53-47, from primary votes of 40.3% for the Coalition, 39.2% for Labor and 10.5% for the Greens. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull to be favoured over Tony Abbott by 53.2% of respondents with only 27.7% opting for Abbott (and 19.1% for Joe Hockey), but this is down to a massive disparity between Coalition supporters, 58.6% of whom favour Abbott versus 27.6% for Turnbull and 13.8% for Hockey, and Labor supporters, of whom 76.5% favour Turnbull, 17.9% favour Hockey, and only 5.6% favour Abbott.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition up 51-49, reversing the result from last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens each down a point to 38% and 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,525 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. davidwh

    If you guys don’t win tonight they should give up cricket. Only another 30 minutes to see the “Desolation of Saffa’s”

  2. BB @ 1135

    A few years ago I shared a first class sleeper compartment on the SYD – MEL XPT train with a gent who stated that he preferred to travel by train to MEL for meetings from SYD as (a) he lived in Campbelltown and the XPT stopped there to pick up passengers, (b) although it took longer i.e. an overnight trip he could work on the train with his laptop, have a shower and brekkie on the train and arrive refreshed in MEL then catch a 109 tram out to his office in Richmond. He stated in overall hours x travel x productivity the Countrylink / V/Line option was best c.f. QF and VB which invariably had flights cancelled or delayed. One night (before taking the train) he went to Tullamarine and 3 VB flights were cancelled so eventually he arrived home at 2.30am (initially booked on a 6.05pm flight to SYD)

    The gent said even though QF service ‘sucks bigtime’ at least they don’t go to pieces when flights become delayed or cancelled like Virgin.

  3. Sigh…

    Remembering when the Victorian Railways meant something and they used to have a special carriage tacked onto the ‘Spirit of Progress’ for Canberra bound passengers that would be shunted off at Goulburn and attached to the morning down Canberra ‘mixed’ to convey primarily MPs to Canberra for Parliamentary sittings…

    The good old days…

  4. Re Lizzie @1113: Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 5h
    Treasury were browbeaten in to taking Hockey’s office MYEFO forecasts. They were a con to make the budget look bad.

    You can’t believe anything members of Abbott’s Government say. It’s all lies, spin and disinformation. A deceitful, spiteful, vindictive and duplicitous Government that will say and do anything for political a political advantage, including trash talking the economy.

  5. ruawake@1144

    As always, Abbott has played the media cycle and done absolutely nothing to solve a problem. Kicking the can down the road only works for so long.

    Abbott is also looking at using Qantas as a wedge on Labor, but Labor are not the government and abbott’s government wants a situation whereby, the chinese or arabs are able and may well take controlling interests.

    Imagine how abbott and particularly the Nats would have reacted if Labor had facilitated the Chinese etc gaining control of Qantas when Labor was in Government.

    They can chop the airline into as many pieces as they like but capitalism is suppose to be about rewarding success and punishing poor performance, ie all captains go down with their ships or aircraft etc.

    Qantas has bleed capital for most of this century, firstly trying to break into some overseas routes. At that time domestic operations did very nicely.

    Then in more recent times they took virgin on in the domestic space, forcing a price and capacity war and bragging “for every 100 additional seats virgin makes available, Qantas will put on 200 seats”. Then both sides bleed more red ink chasing the lowest price.

    Domestic price wars have served Qantas well over the years when they were the biggest, but this time they have copped a hiding from those same tactics, which the MD of virgin an old Qantas man was only well aware of.

    Qantas is also playing the bluff game for all its worth.

    They need to face the market however like other businesses. The management and board also need to face the consequences of their very poor decisions.

    Give them nothing. Take them nowhere.

  6. J341983
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 6:39 pm | PERMALINK
    I’m not the biggest fan of Qantas now… but I’m a Gold FF with them and I really, really don’t like Virgin.

    Same with me

  7. [mari
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 6:55 pm | PERMALINK
    J341983
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 6:39 pm | PERMALINK
    I’m not the biggest fan of Qantas now… but I’m a Gold FF with them and I really, really don’t like Virgin.

    Same with me]

    Me too.

  8. I hear Qantas has joined Virgin in stating the bleeding obvious….paying in excess of $100 million dollars has an impact on them!

    OUCH! That must hurt some here :devil:

  9. The best thing for AGW is to destroy Qantas and virgin and the other airline companies.

    I am guessing you don’t fly……do you?

  10. BTW

    I was originally with British Airways FF because of certain connections 😀 one day I was told I was being transferred to Qantas FF, nothing I could do, just accept, not impressed

  11. The problem with Qantas and the carbon tax is that they, as expected, inreased fares by the appropriate amount at the time of the introduction but since then – BY MANAGEMENT ACTION AND NOTHING ELSE – entered into a capacity and price war with Virgin and, with the passage of time, given up the fare increase they levied.

  12. Oh Dear

    [Airlines made windfall profits of up to £1.2bn ($1.81bn) last year from a EU carbon tax they claimed would impose crippling costs on industry, according to a report into the measure’s impact on the industry.]

    Poor Mad Log.

  13. E

    [Everything
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

    The best thing for AGW is to destroy Qantas and virgin and the other airline companies.

    I am guessing you don’t fly……do you?]

    Fly? Yes. And I switch the lights on when it gets dark.

    The future of AGW does not lie in my hands. It is the lying Abbotts of the world and their geriatric white men henchpersons who are going to determine that, certainly as far as Australia is concerned.

    They appear to think that what the Bible says trumps everything.

  14. mari

    Flying within Australia came down to picking the least worst option. I was only 🙂 re Qantas because of the even worse option. Not a way to make brand loyalty. It means as soon as there is a better alternative it is “I’m Gough and I’m off”.

  15. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 7:13 pm | PERMALINK
    E

    Everything
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 7:07 pm | Permalink

    The best thing for AGW is to destroy Qantas and virgin and the other airline companies.

    I am guessing you don’t fly……do you?

    Fly? Yes. And I switch the lights on when it gets dark.

    The future of AGW does not lie in my hands.]

    Oh I see.

  16. [ruawake
    ….Poor Mad Log.]

    Who was it that said (wtte) “I will trust what Qantas says about whether or not the carbon tax was a factor in their problems”.

    Was it you? :devil:

    Please tell me that it was you! 🙂 Should I go back and look, or will you admit to it????

  17. E

    [Oh I see.]

    I doubt it. 66% of Liberals reckon that 97% of the world’s climate scientists are wrong. I suppose you might belong to the 34%.

    Do you?

  18. The EU report found airlines charged passengers for the CT, they charged others for Carbon offsets they never purchased, and they ended up making millions each in profit.

    Bit like Qantas International charging for the Carbon Tax on fuel when they buy it in the UAE and refuel OS. But heck we will still offer the carbon offset option and put a fuel tax on.

  19. Boerwar:

    Wasn’t it you accusing people of selling out their children and grandchildren- or do I have that wrong? That is just from memory, so I could be mistaken, but I thought it was you….

  20. Funny how the AFR report the Qantas statement on the CT was raised at the Cabinet meeting and Ministers were very angry. They then pressured Qantas to change their statement – which they duly did.

    I don’t know why Qantas bothered Abbott will screw them no matter which direction they face.

  21. But hang on a second, Virgin said the exact same thing BEFORE the Cabinet. Why do you argue that it was Cabinet pressure that made Qantas make the statement AFTER Cabinet.

    The two big companies said the same thing, and what appears to me to be the bleedingly obvious thing…..paying in excess of $100 million has an impact on your business.

    Dah 😉

    Go on, ruawake…..tell me it was you, just for old times sakes! 😉 It was, wasn’t it?

  22. As I said earlier, the msm is reporting the Labotr party as being wedged on Qantas insofar as the Sales Act and the carbon tax is concerned

  23. poroti
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 7:14 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    Flying within Australia came down to picking the least worst option. I was only 🙂 re Qantas because of the even worse option. Not a way to make brand loyalty. It means as soon as there is a better alternative it is “I’m Gough and I’m off”.

    Yes agree but have about 3/4 million FF points think I will be taking them soon. But flying BA in May Overseas as much cheaper and can like Qantas pick the seats I want 😀

  24. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 7:21 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1175

    Is that before or AFTER the backflip? ]

    What backflip?

  25. [Why do you argue that it was Cabinet pressure that made Qantas make the statement AFTER Cabinet.]

    Then what was it that made them change their statement?

    [on Wednesday saying the tax “is among the significant challenges we face’’ despite on Monday saying it was “not a significant issue” for the company’s sustainability.]

  26. It seems odd that one line the Abbott shambles is trying to push is that Qantas has $2 billion in cash reserves and don’t require any assistance from anyone.

    So why bother splitting the company into 3 parts Tony?

  27. Those statements are not contradictory.

    Nobody said that the carbon tax meant QANTAS would go bust (i.e. its not a question of sustainability), they said it was an additional impost for them (i.e. among the significant challenges).

    Yesterday, reawaken thought he was very clever pointing to the QANTAS statement as proof the CT had no impact, which I refuted then on the exact same terms. The Qantas statement on Monday was not that it had no effect, just that it wasn’t what they were asking to change (they accepted the need to take the knock for the greater good……its still a knock).

  28. I see Mad Log is still into reinventing the past so that it conforms to her way of thinking. I think delusional is the proper term.

  29. I enjoy watching “Air Crash Investigation” for its portrayal of the painstaking analysis into the cause of aircraft crashes.

    There is scope for a spin-off series “Airline Crash Investigation”. The first program could be about Joyce and Qantas.

  30. Oh look…..it was dear old Confessions:

    [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 7:18 pm | PERMALINK
    So are we agreeing that the carbon tax HAS an adverse impact on Qantas or not?

    Personally I’ll go with what Qantas says about its costs and operations, not what you say about them.]

    So do you “go with what Qantas says about its costs and operations” then and admit I was right and you were wrong?

    Or are you going to shift the goalposts again?

  31. poroti
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 7:30 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    You’d be a “crazy lady” not to take full advantage of FF points…………..even those from Aeroflot 🙂

    I am a ‘crazy lady” sometimes but will rectify it as soon as I can 😀 but not with aeroflot I am afraid I am not that crazy 😀

  32. Just watching Steve Colbert. His opening spiel has a real 😆 “News tonight folks , Ukraine is on the brink of a disaster. Things are looking up for them.”

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