BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor

After wildly divergent results from Nielsen and Newspoll, it’s far from clear which of the two was the rogue, or if both were. For the time being, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate splits the difference.

The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.

The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,632 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor”

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  1. MTBW 3346
    I actually also don’t have foxtel ‘cos of cost and therefore miss out on my beloved English Premier League but there is some good stuff on the secondary and obscure free to air channels if you eliminate 7(1), 9, and most of ABC (imho). SBS is a mixed bag.

  2. ruawake,

    You’re lucky. After my dad died, it took my mum a year and a half to convince Telstra to transfer the account.

  3. ruawake@3347

    I bet Abbott keeps the 51% ownership rule, just messes with the 35 and 25% thresholds, then announce he has fixed Qantas.

    Be a great idea for Qantas to stay out of prices wars and dud routes as well.

    Stuff they lose money on – just stop doing it and stop kicking the stuffing out of your staff.

    The irishman and the board chairman have to go as well of course.

  5. [You’re lucky. After my dad died, it took my mum a year and a half to convince Telstra to transfer the account.]

    They have a bereavement section, which were very good, the problem is with Telstra’s back office systems. It took so long because she was wrestling with the systems.

    Finding the correct person in the Telstra maze is the major battle.

  6. Regarding Qantas

    Jetstar is making a profit so the domestic carbon price doesn’t worry them.

    While Australia has a carbon price Qantas does not have to pay carbon fees flying into Europe which would happen if we had no carbon price.

  9. So why was 90% of QT taken up with the guvmint blaming the carbon tax for sending Qantas broke?

    [ISSUE: Claims that the carbon tax is a key issue facing Qantas

    FACTS: The major issues faces Qantas are not related to carbon pricing.

    We have been clear that levelling the playing field is the most important policy measure that needs to be fixed, and with some urgency.]

    http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/qantas-responds/claims-made-about-qantas-in-the-media

  10. Telstra has always puzzled me — they have separate phone numbers listed for various departments (Business, Residential etc) but no matter which number you ring, you get given the same menu.

    Why have the different phone numbers to start with?

    Right there, a new user would be wondering how a communications company could be so inefficient.

  12. Have I got this right?
    Whwn the carbon tax was introduces Qantas and its competitors all added an amount to fare pricing to cover the relatively small actual increase in cost of goods sold.
    So the travellers have been pating the carbon tax while the airlines have merely been the vehicle through which monies to the value of the carbon tax were transferred from the publc to the government.
    Now, for the removal of the carbon tax to have any beneficial effect on Qantas’s operation it would mean that the company would have to maintain the existing pricing and pocket the difference.
    But if their competition reduced thier pricing by the small amount they would be at a competetive advantage.
    So how can “Stgop the Carbon Tax” be the magig bullet for Qnatas?
    From Phil Coorey’s story Qantas knows the answer to that question.

  14. Because:
    1. If Qantas passes on all the carbon tax, it means fewer passengers will fly (the marginal increase will reduce the number of seats sold)
    2. If Qantas takes on all the carbon tax impost, it means a weaker bottom line
    3. If Qantas passes on a fraction of the carbon tax, see 1 and 2 above

  15. Qantas now having to correct the record in the face of what are essentially lies from the govt? Toyota had to the same, as did SPC IIRC.

    Perhaps the govt should just start being honest with us instead of trying to play politics with our national interest all the time.

  16. So can I get this straight….folks here think additional taxes have no impact and raise no revenue?

    Hmmmm….I am beginning to see how you stuffed up the Mining tax now :devil:

  17. Everything

    Julie Bishop said the truth. The problem with Qantas is management.

    I do not like Bishop but she is correct and any government support must have strings to force Qantas to restructure its managemenr

  18. I had to look after the affairs of my mate (no relation) who died late last year. Telstra was the only people I had trouble with. After a number of weeks the solution was to forward his death certificate to finally have his account closed.
    They are thick as bricks!

  19. citizen
    Posted Monday, March 3, 2014 at 6:34 pm | PERMALINK
    geoffrey
    Posted Monday, March 3, 2014 at 5:22 pm | PERMALINK
    the following is so predictable it is tragic … we put 50/50 odds two days ago, of back to jail – any change now – i dont know who is dumber, that family or abbott. of well channel 7 got some viewers for one hour in the broadcast miasma – something for schapelle to think about for years of incarceration … she will probably survive, just, but why would you both. and for no money! ahem

    The owner(s) of Ch7 have absolutely no morals. To them Schapelle is a dispensable commodity, to be used to attract viewers and therefore advertising revenue, then to be discarded to the wolves.

    It is no wonder that some people in Indonesia are calling for Schapelle to be returned to prison for breaching her parole conditions. Is this not what the shock jocks here would do here if the person in question was an Indonesian national jailed under the same circumstances?

    ——yes. i expect good chance she will be in jail mid week. she has given govt the gun they wanted. yes channel seven and willessee? are creeps. but corby could have said no. she know interview arranged on leaving!!! really you think corby would have learnt something after all these years. remember the australian girl caught on drugs years ago – she dressed demurely even adopted muslim customs, at least while in indonesia.

  21. I am not absolving management, just bringing a little dose of reality- a new tax has an impact.

    I wouldn’t have thought this was that hard to grasp…

  22. I wonder if Abbott missed this bit of News.

    [Single Age Pensions will rise by $15.70 to $842.80 per fortnight for full pensions

    Couples Age Pension will rise by $23.80 to $1270.60 per fortnight for full pensions]

    This is on the 20th March 2014, yep 17 days time.

  24. [I am not absolving management, just bringing a little dose of reality- a new tax has an impact.

    I wouldn’t have thought this was that hard to grasp…]

    Who are you talking to? I don’t see anyone claiming that taxes have “no impact”.

  28. guytaur
    [Merkel told Obama after speaking to Putin “she was not sure he was in touch with reality]
    You sure she didn’t mean he, Obama, wasn’t in touch with reality?

    Judging by how (in)effective Obama has been on pressuring Iran, Syria, Egypt etc, I think the wise money is once again going on the guy in the opposite corner. Putin will get away with whatever he wants to do in Russia’s interests. That is the starting point for governing a country and it tends to avoid confrontations because it’s very clear to others where the red line is (Obama’s “red lines” however tend to be pink or smudged or written in disappearing ink).

  29. Re telstra

    I am not usually one to defend Telstra but a few weeks ago when my aged mothers home phone was out of order they did OK. Once we were able to talk to a real person and explain that we were dealing with an elderly lady who needed the phone for security they bumped her up the job list and got it sorted.
    They are no different to anybody who uses a call centre. The. Operatives have a script and a list of questions. Deviate from that at your peril.
    Major exception is iinet. I have been a customer of their’s for more than a decade and they get the gold medal for service.

  31. Qantas has 65% of the domestic market, it charges its customers a levy to cover the CT identical to all other airlines, how can it affect their bottom line? It can’t.

    Unless you want to suggest a $7 per ticket impost has stopped people flying, which would be a stupid position to take.

  36. Guytaur

    If it’s from the NYT then it’s unlikely to be accurate but my point was that I can’t see Obama actually doing anything – that’s not his shtick.

  38. Mick

    I disagree about Obama. He proved you wrong catching Osama.

    With Ukraine its a Nato gig. So even by your criteria the Europeans may force him to act.

  39. Mick77 – Heaps of people either watch the prem league live via streaming or download after games finished

  41. Nobody is going to do anything about the Ukraine except talk about it. Maybe this will save a few hundred thousand lives that the gung hos would call collateral damage.

  44. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says the Govt will seek to repeal Pt 3 of the Qantas Sale Act in its entirety. @abcnews”

  45. Carbon pricing is the least of Qantas’ problems. The reasons for Qantas’ failure are many and varied, likely including bad management. If Carbon pricing was an issue then Qantas management would have said so. Unlike politicians, corporate managers are not allowed to mislead markets. So why are we talking about Carbon pricing? Why not fuel excise, executive salaries, the GST or crude oil prices, the high Australian dollar? (Rhetorical question).

    Abbott and his ministers can’t open their mouths without lying. They blame their failures on anyone and anything except their own stupidity.

  46. “@bengrubb: Abbott says decision is to repeal part three of Qantas Sales Act. No debt guarantee or line of credit. Part 3 deals with foreign investment”

  48. K17
    [Mick77 – Heaps of people either watch the prem league live via streaming or download after games finished]
    Gotta be LIVE! but you pay for that as well don’t you..?

  50. [Expressing “extreme anger” towards the United States government, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said in an interview that the war in Afghanistan was not fought with his country’s interests in mind.

    “Afghans died in a war that’s not ours,” Karzai said in an interview with the Washington Post newspaper published late on Sunday, just a month before the election to pick his successor.

    To the American people, give them my best wishes and my gratitude. To the US government, give them my anger, my extreme anger

    Hamid Karzai, Afghan president

    He was quoted as saying he was certain the 12-year-old war, the United States’ longest and launched after the attacks of September 11, 2001, was “for the US security and for the Western interest.”

    Karzai’s refusal to sign a security deal with Washington that would permit foreign troops to stay in Afghanistan beyond this year has frustrated the White House, and President Barack Obama has told the Pentagon to prepare for the possibility that no US troops will be left in Afghanistan after 2014.]

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2014/03/karzai-afghan-war-fought-western-interest-20143353951600289.html

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