BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor

After wildly divergent results from Nielsen and Newspoll, it’s far from clear which of the two was the rogue, or if both were. For the time being, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate splits the difference.

The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.

The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,632 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor”

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  1. the following is so predictable it is tragic … we put 50/50 odds two days ago, of back to jail – any change now – i dont know who is dumber, that family or abbott. of well channel 7 got some viewers for one hour in the broadcast miasma – something for schapelle to think about for years of incarceration … she will probably survive, just, but why would you both. and for no money! ahem

    Schapelle Corby’s TV appearance sparks backlash in Indonesia
    Date
    March 3, 2014 – 3:29PM
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    Michael Bachelard
    Michael Bachelard
    Indonesia correspondent for Fairfax Media
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    Schapelle Corby’s first moments of freedom
    Channel Seven’s Sunday Night program gave us Schapelle Corby’s first moments of freedom but very few words from Schapelle herself.
    Autoplay ONOFFVideo feedbackVideo settings
    Pressure is building in Indonesia for Schapelle Corby to have her parole revoked after Indonesia’s deputy justice minister said she may have been “sneaking around the law” in her appearance on the Seven Network on Sunday.

    The Corby family and Seven producers believed they would not be in breach of the Indonesian law if the Sunday Night exclusive did not include an interview with Corby herself.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/schapelle-corbys-tv-appearance-sparks-backlash-in-indonesia-20140303-33zjg.html#ixzz2usVKjFxX

  2. Re Dave @ 3295 – interesting. I suppose a rejection of supply was reasonably forseeable by August. Gough certainly chose his GG badly – someone who seemed to look the part and seemed to be a mate but wasn’t. Surely there were eminent persons like a number of subsequent GGs who would have been better. Alse water under the bridge.

    Given that Kerr had decided upon dismissal, he should have stated his intention to Gough and given him the opportunity to advise the GG himself and go to the election as PM. That Kerr didn’t was certainly reprehensible. Talk at the time about Gough and Kerr racing to the phone to get to the Queen first was just plain silly. Gough would not have been happy but he would have advised the GG to an election.

  3. So he tried to kill himself, not out of remorse but because he knew he was going to get caught.

    [Psychiatrist Bruce Westmore said that a tearful Williamson had told him that a seminal moment in his childhood was his parents’ inability to pay for a movie ticket.
    He said that Williamson wanted to do better for his five children than his own parents had been able to do for him.
    Dr Westmore said Williamson had tried to kill himself on September 23, 2011.
    This coincided with the police announcing a strike force to investigate his crimes.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/michael–williamson-taken-into-custody-20140303-33ynm.html#ixzz2usXMVrqM

  4. [Re sproket @3281: did the Daily Telecrap say who was outraged? They made it up. They can’t let an opportunity go by to repeat their beatup from two years ago.]

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t actually think they’ve done this. Sprocket was simply pointing to the original Telegraph beat-up from 2011.

  6. Off Topic

    Today I came across the biggest customer relations stuff up ever, you will probably not be surprised the winner is Telstra.

    After my fathers death I finally got around to trying to transfer the phone and internet to my mothers name, instead of joint names.

    Not a really tricky issue, I explained the situation, my father has died etc etc.

    The wonderful call centre person says “are you authorised to access this account” I said “probably not” she says “can you put your father on the phone”.

    I said “Sorry he is Dead it may be a bit difficult.”

    Thankfully I was transferred from India to someone in Melbourne who only took an hour to sort things out. 🙁

  8. Great comment from Turnbull which obviously referred to Murdoch.

    [Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has denied he was referring to News Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch when he referred to a “demented plutocrat” during his speech to launch The Saturday Paper.

    During the speech on Friday night Turnbull repeatedly went off-script and made several jibes which appeared to be at the expense of News Corp’s flagship newspaper The Australian and Murdoch.

    After lavishing praise on The Saturday Paper’s founder Morry Schwartz and his contribution to Australia’s “intellectual life”, Turnbull quipped: “You are not some demented plutocrat pouring more and more money into a loss making venture that is just going to peddle your opinions.”
    ]

  10. Interesting that Qantas has denied the impact of the Carbon Tax has anything to do with it’s problem.

    Tony Abbott and Co could not lie straight in bed!

  11. Interesting that Qantas has denied the impact of the Carbon Tax has anything to do with it’s problem.

    Tony Abbott and Co could not lie straight in bed!

  13. MTBW

    Every company that Hockey and Abbott have stated the CT has impacted, has replied in writing denying their assertions. I wonder when they will be picked up on this error? (Just kidding 🙁 )

  16. Williamson went to my school, St Peter Pheils in Newcastle. While it wasn’t particularly flash it was a private Catholic school and wasn’t the poorest either. Most families were lower middle class

  18. OC

    So did you feel impoverished as a child?

    I hope Williamson will be in the slammer for a very long time poor petal.

  22. Re 3311 – in all of the recent announcements of closures, job losses and ‘deferrals’ of projects, I can’t recall one instance when Carbon Pricing or the actions of unions were cited as a significant reason for the decision, or in fact that they played any role at all. It’s been about competitive pressures, the high Australian dollar, falls in commodity prices, adverse business conditions, recession or slowing growth in our trading partners and so on. Is Tony Abbott accusing these executives and CEOs of misleaduing markets by not stating the true reasons behind these decisions?

  23. Yeah I did – it must be why I committed all them armed robberies.
    Actually I didn’t realise I was poor until I ended up in the Medical School at Sydney University. It was quite a revelation – some of those guys lived in houses with hot running water!

  26. Seems the Flegg Tapes have been referred to the DPP by the Qld CMC, surely Senator O’Sullivan couldn’t be involved yet again. 😆

  27. If Abbott and his stooges are blaming the carbon price for the problems at Qantas, Labor are making a miserable mistake by not holding a serious press conference to prove the assertions as false.

    1. Abbott blames carbon pricing for the problems at Qantas.

    2. Qantas have made it specifically clear that their problems are not related to carbon pricing.

    3. Qantas charges its customers a miniscule fee to compensate for their contribution to carbon pricing.

    4. Rival airlines also charge customers a miniscule fee to compensate for their contribution to carbon pricing.

    5. The net loss to Qantas and its competitors for carbon pricing is zero.

    6. Either Abbott and his stooges are lying as to the consequences of carbon pricing on the Qantas bottom line or they do not understand.

    C’mon Labor, where’s the presser?

    Albo c’mon 😎

  28. Ruawake @ 3306

    Sorry to hear that. This happened to my mother last year when her dad passed away. Some idiotic dolt from India or Malaysia (who could barely speak English) asked if the ‘authorised person’ could verify the account.

    My mother who is a born and bred woman from Manchester and migrated to Oz in 1951 and takes no cr%p from anyone let this idiotic dolt have it with both barrels and his/her ‘supervisor’ somewhere in Australia as well.

    My mother also wrote to one M Turnbull who was/is too rude/arrogant to provide a response. Mum also emailed David ‘asleep at the wheel’ Thodey as well with an exact transcript of her interaction with this voice from India/Malaysia/wherever

    Not happy

    Anyone mum finally received a resolution after about 2 days to/from on the phone with various bacteria from Helstra aka Telstra

  29. ruawake,

    [The wonderful call centre person says “are you authorised to access this account” I said “probably not” she says “can you put your father on the phone”.

    I said “Sorry he is Dead it may be a bit difficult.”

    Thankfully I was transferred from India to someone in Melbourne who only took an hour to sort things out. :(]

    Don’t be too harsh.

    As an Indian, the call operator probably believes in reincarnation.

  30. The CT story has hit the Guardian
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/tony-abbott-singles-out-carbon-tax-as-the-main-cause-of-qantas-woes?CMP=twt_gu

    [There are arguments for and against that proposition, but the carbon tax argument is a political red herring.

    Indeed Qantas later exposed it as such, with a spokesman saying: “Qantas’s current issues are not related to carbon pricing.

    “We have been clear that levelling the playing field is the most important policy measure that needs to be fixed and with some urgency.”]

  31. Zoid 3319

    No doubt there will many more projects approved ignoring expert advice.

    Hence, the reasons why the ferret wants to introduce legislation to protect himself from any blow back now and in the future.

  32. What does Qantas mean by a level playing field?

    They demand 65% of the domestic market and are sending themselves broke maintaining it.

    They have to maintain 51% Australian ownership, who wants to buy in at the moment except asset strippers and profit takers.

    They have to have major divisions based “mostly” in Australia.

    The board has to have Australian Citizens on it.

    So how does this levelling occur? Another mess Abbott will talk about and do absolutely nothing for fear of offending the Liberal factions.

  33. Oh and Tony read this and shove it where it fits.

    [‘‘In the context of the significant challenges facing the global aviation industry, the Qantas Group will be unable to absorb the additional costs associated with the carbon price,’’ the airline said in a statement at the time the carbon tax came in. ‘‘There will be a full pass-through to customers.’]

  34. I have just had a nightmare weekend with Telstra as well. Every time I spoke to someone from Telstra I was told that what the previous person told me was wrong (not hyperbole, absolute literal truth). They have no idea.

    YIKES!…….just appalling.

    Thankfully, all sorted out now with Iinet, no dramas, and call backs to check all was OK, which it was.

  36. [Updated | Qantas has hit back at Treasurer Joe Hockey for claiming the carbon tax was contributing to the company’s woes, saying its “current issues are not related to carbon pricing”.]

    So far it’s “the unions”, “unfair competition” and “the carbon tax”.

    One detects a pattern of whingeing here that is prevalent throught the government and Qantas management.

    Management doesn’t want any “carbon tax” distractions because they need investment, not the repeal of laws they know will carry them AND their competition up or down on the same tide.

    “The unions” is also a distraction, because getting rid of their workforce and hiring another is not something that can be done overnight. Qantas’s position will get worse before it gets better in the area of skilled jobs.

    Abbott won’t invest taxpayers’ money in Qantas bevause he doesn’t believe in government ownership of enterprises such as Qantas.

    So what we are left with is investment, either private or government… but not the Australian government. So, some other government then?

    Dubai? Qatar? Singapore? New Zealand? It’s hard to see what all the kerfuffle is about when “our national carrier” could end up being the property of a foreign government.

    So let’s take private investment. Hedge funds and the like can be expected to gut Qantas and flog it off, with shards flying everywhere: Jetstar here, Qantas international there, the engineering department basically sold for scrap if it isn’t going to operate here.

    Whichever way you look at it we’ve lost a national carrier and either sold it off to be broken up into its constituent atoms, or become the plaything of something like an Arab price. It’ll end up with Qantas planes parked at the end of some tarmac somewhere in Asia or the Middle East: a budget carrier run by the caricature of an Irishman and a bunch of nominees from the international business Z-list.

    Why the shock jocks and the conservative politicians are so concerned about Qantas when it is so plainly heading for non-national carrier oblivion, I don’t know. Is it really worth losing this airline just to lower the ranks of unionists here in Australia (while raising the numbers of the unemployed, naturally).

    It’s madness, of course… madness promoted by Abbott who clearly doesn’t have a clue what to do except act out sloganistic fantasies, egged on by the likes of the IPA and hacks working for Murdoch.

    Really, he is SO much of a wrecking ball. They ought to take him out the back and retire him before he wrecks too much more.

    Clueless.

  37. Qanda
    Tonight’s Panel
    Josh Frydenberg – Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister
    Jason Clare – Shadow Communications Minister
    Sue Morphet – Chair of Manufacturing Australia
    Katharine Viner – Editor-in Chief, Guardian Australia
    David Bridie – Musician and Pacific Rights Advocate

  38. [geoffrey
    Posted Monday, March 3, 2014 at 5:22 pm | PERMALINK
    the following is so predictable it is tragic … we put 50/50 odds two days ago, of back to jail – any change now – i dont know who is dumber, that family or abbott. of well channel 7 got some viewers for one hour in the broadcast miasma – something for schapelle to think about for years of incarceration … she will probably survive, just, but why would you both. and for no money! ahem]

    The owner(s) of Ch7 have absolutely no morals. To them Schapelle is a dispensable commodity, to be used to attract viewers and therefore advertising revenue, then to be discarded to the wolves.

    It is no wonder that some people in Indonesia are calling for Schapelle to be returned to prison for breaching her parole conditions. Is this not what the shock jocks here would do here if the person in question was an Indonesian national jailed under the same circumstances?

  39. Well I had an excellent customer service experience from Telstra this morning. With all my internet GBs almost used up this month, and 2 days left until it refreshes for the next month, and wanting to spend today downloading videos and movies, I rang up to buy more gigs.

    The guy I spoke to told me that because I never exceed my full monthly GB quota ever, that he would revert my slow speed back to full speed and allow me unlimited downloads for the 2 remaining days until my month kicks into a new month!

    I told him it was very sweet of him to offer that and gave him a very good customer service rating on the survey at the end of the call.

  40. victoria

    Quite an interesting panel, except that Frydenberg comes over to me as another Jamie Briggs, who can talk under wet cement. I wonder how ‘balanced’ it will be.

  44. Channel 7 are the pits! Apart from this awful Corby caper and the possible repercussions, their programs also suck and they never stop advertising and promoting one inside the other and attempting to engender faux drama and tension when who gives a f… They remind me of Packers’s channel 9 which was similarly insufferable for years.
    Thank goodness for Murdoch’s foxtel 🙂

  45. confessions

    Please try to control your hormones!!
    (I don’t find Jason Clare particularly attractive, but I suppose it’s just as well we’re all different.)

  47. I bet Abbott keeps the 51% ownership rule, just messes with the 35 and 25% thresholds, then announce he has fixed Qantas.

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