Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

As other pollsters find support for Labor trending downwards, Newspoll breaks ranks with the Abbott government’s worst poll result since it came to power.

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

• Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

• The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 31 of 37
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  1. Host of 7:30 just told Barnaby Joyce ‘Just stick to the subject!’ when interviewing him on the drought assistance package when he launched into a spiel about how we had 667 thoussand trillion billion dollars gross debt. Good stuff.

  4. [Very few will see the YouTube clip, apart from the likes of us.]
    Shorten could have delivered the Gettysburg Address today and it would be dismissed as just words. Fuck them all, there is no health in this land.

  6. [ Steve777
    Posted Wednesday, February 26, 2014 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

    Host of 7:30 just told Barnaby Joyce ‘Just stick to the subject!]

    We took a vote here and switched him off straight after he came on.

  10. [Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor 8m
    730 report Drought preparatness Joyce is overseeing the removal of conservation farming initiatives put in place by previous govt]

  11. Psephos,

    [If you want a break from all this silliness, you can look at my beautiful election maps of Madagascar. Only at Psephos!
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/m/madagascar/madagascarmapsindex.shtml%5D

    Are you able to explain the parties/acronyms? The only one Wikipedia turned out (which is quite out of date when it comes to Madagascar, it seems) was LEADER-Fanilo, and Mouvance Ravalomanana easy enough to figure out from past parties.

    Which is the military backed party?

    [Coming soon: Mali, a remarkable democratic success story.]

    How so?

    Coming soon: Mali, a remarkable democratic success story.

  14. Psephos,

    If you want a break from all this silliness, you can look at my beautiful election maps of Madagascar. Only at Psephos!
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/m/madagascar/madagascarmapsindex.shtml%5D

    Are you able to explain the parties/acronyms? The only one Wikipedia turned out (which is quite out of date when it comes to Madagascar, it seems) was LEADER-Fanilo, and Mouvance Ravalomanana easy enough to figure out from past parties.

    Which is the military backed party?

    [Coming soon: Mali, a remarkable democratic success story.[

    How so?

    (reformatted)

  15. Darn @ 1943

    Agree. I just finished watching Bill firing up in QT via APH TV and he was in fine form. Almost up there with some of Paul Keating’s classic performances. Lots of passion and the way he responded to Joyce and Bishop interjecting was very good.

    I think the opposition would have got a much needed confidence boost from today’s performance.

    Speaker Bishop is absolutely out of her depth and why didn’t she call Hockey out on the ‘Professor Palmer’ response to his question. She is not even in the same league as Jenkins or Bourke.

    On Palmer I must say he will be a very nasty thorn in the government’s side.

  17. I’m not Bill Shortens #1 fan but he was real and he was blisteringly effective in his HoR speech today.

    Needs that kind of fire in his pressers to capture peoples attention.

  18. Psephos,

    [If you want a break from all this silliness, you can look at my beautiful election maps of Madagascar. Only at Psephos!
    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/m/madagascar/madagascarmapsindex.shtml ]

    Are you able to explain the parties/acronyms? The only one Wikipedia turned out (which is quite out of date when it comes to Madagascar, it seems) was LEADER-Fanilo, and Mouvance Ravalomanana easy enough to figure out from past parties.

    Which is the military backed party?

    [Coming soon: Mali, a remarkable democratic success story.]

    How so?

    (found the problem. Move along, folks)

  21. My goodness all this insightful analysis on the brilliance of the Labor Opposition from the usual camp followers BK, ruawake kc, et al

    There is really only one move left to make – so brilliant, so ruthless no one will expect it – The Liberals must knife Abbott and replace him with Joe Hockey. No one will expect it in the first term but it will demonstrate the toughness and strategic smarts of todays Liberal Party.

  22. Christine Milne querying in Senate Estimates about Rupert Murdoch’s $882m tax refund. Trying to learn who approved it – public servants obfuscating…

  23. Victoria,

    Incompetence with quotation brackets. Turns out if it’s next to a hyperlink it doesn’t register, which I should have accounted for.

  26. [On Palmer I must say he will be a very nasty thorn in the government’s side.]

    I can’t believe the stupid pricks on the Govt back and front benches laughing at the guy. He has at least 3 deciding votes in the Senate come July, enough to prevent any legislation from passing.

  27. victoria

    [ I got the sense that the coalition members may have felt a fleeting sense of shame.]
    Fleeting is right, I saw their smug faces leaving the HOR after QT. Abbott had that trademark smirk on his face.

  28. Bugler: I haven’t been able to find translations for the some of the party acronyms. Madagascar is not exactly on the front rank as far as world interest goes and there’s not much info online. The main divide seems to be between supporters of the two ex-presidents Marc Ravalomanana (MR) and Andry Rajoelina (MPAR). But the party system is weak as in most of Africa and about 30 parties won one seat each.

    Mali is a success story because only two years ago there was a coup followed by an invasion of Islamist crazies from Libya who seized control of the northern half of the country. With a little help from the French they have now reunited the country and held successful elections.

  30. ESJ @ 1521

    Hockey? “Hmmm… No no no… (to paraphrase Capt Mainwaring from Dad’s Army) “He’s quite the WRONG man for the job… No for my mind it would be Christopher Pyne”

    Given the Abbott Government are wanting to wind back the clock … let’s have young Pyne as Leader … just like the old days with Downer as Opposition Leader…

    Shorten would make easy work of him in QT. Actually Hockey looked out of his depth in QT today as well.

  34. ru

    [I can’t believe the stupid pricks on the Govt back and front benches laughing at the guy.]

    Yes, I thought Hockey calling him Professor Palmer was a bit stupid.

  35. Just happened upon Richo serving it up to Alan Joyce in spades. Reckons he and the whole board of Qantas should be sacked.

    It must be a day for powerful speeches.

  36. ru

    The conservatives seem to be taking a long term approach to PUP. they are hoping to ridicule him and make his base too embarrassed to vote for.

    I think if you voted for Clive that you’re probably impervious to ridicule so I don’t expect it to work.

  37. Ruawake @ 1526

    Exactly. Clive is no fool. His PUPs will cause considerable consternation in the Senate in a few months time.

    Trivia note: Clive’s father owned and ran Palmer’s Tours a famous bus and coach company in the 1950s and 1960s that ran express services between Melbourne – Sydney – Brisbane via the Princes Highway.

  39. Psephos,

    Thanks, that’s understandable. The wiki page “politics of Madagascar” contains a net total of one link/reference, which says:

    [Madagascar has been in political crisis since December 2008 following a stalemate between former President Marc Ravalomanana and the transitional president Andry Rajoelina, Mayor of Antananarivo from December 2007 to March 2009 who led a massive protest against Ravalomanana from 2002 to March 2009.]

    I think Rajoelina was backed by the military against Ravalomanana, based on wiki, but who knows.

    On Mali, that’s good to hear. So little goes right for democracy in Africa I do get worried sometimes. They deserve proper governance for once.

  40. I have no real time for Palmer but it seems obvious to me that the Libs have shut the door in his face. It’s an old boys club old man so fuck off.

  41. Just caught Shorten’s speech. The looks of embarrassment on the faces of coalition frontbenchers was telling. And why is Wilkie wasting so much of QT with something a Senator said?

    Totally bizarre. Shorten is right: we absolutely deserve better than what we are getting from this govt.

  43. I must be in the minority in thinking that far from being a thorn in the govt’s side, PUP will just be an enabler of Abbott’s agenda.

    They might ark up on strategic bills, but by and large won’t cause too much of a fuss.

  44. Poroti @ 1538

    And Mavis Pike could be Bronwyn Bishop.

    Actually Pike and Pyne do have the same demeanour (Apologies to Ian Lavender … a great actor)

  46. I have no real time for Palmer but it seems obvious to me that the Libs have shut the door in his face. It’s an old boys club old man so there’s the door. :-p

  47. confessions

    Because the 3 star lapdog who lay down with dogs and woke up with fleas is a classmate of Wilkie. Coincidence or do I sell you a harbour bridge ? Think mutual bastardisation stories they can swap.

  48. Well, about bloody time ….

    @sspencer_63: Full bench of Federal Court to rule TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN SYDNEY on Ashby and Harmer appeal against Peter Slipper judgment.

    Will probably be drowned out by Qantas…

  49. poroti:

    That would explain it.

    Btw, from some of the comments here and on twitter, it seemed as though Wilkie had co-written the motion with the Immigration Minister.

  50. So Senator Rolandson called General Gellispie a coward in Senate Estimates in 2007? Shorten said so in his speech today.

    Would be nice to find that in the transcript.

    Are Estimates Hearings also covered by Hansard?

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