Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

As the shine comes off Labor’s recent polling surge in Newspoll and Nielsen, Essential Research has them finally moving into the lead.

As other polls appear to be heading back in the other direction, the slow-moving Essential Research has Labor finally breaking into a lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 over recent weeks. Labor has cracked 40%, up one point on last week, with the Coalition down two to 41%, the Greens steady on 8% and the Palmer United Party up a point to 4%. Other findings gauge concern about employment (55% express concern they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job in the next 12 months, up from 47% in August 2012), car industry assistance (46% think the government didn’t do enough to maintain car manufacturing in Australia, compared with 36% who think it did enough), the government’s approval of the coal port expansion at Abbot Point and related concerns about dredging and dumping at the Great Barrier Reef (66% disapprove of the decision, 41% strongly, with only 17% approving), and respondents’ level of interest in Schapelle Corby (71% professing little or no interest). Results courtesy of Bernard Keane at Crikey, with the full report to follow shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 27 of 33
1 26 27 28 33
  1. The larger problem for Morrison is the release of 10,000 names into the public domain, the file has been available since Abbott was sworn in.

    It appears that these people have to be given refugee status, they cannot be returned home as their names may be known.

    Morrison explaining how HIS Dept stuffed up will be interesting, I wonder if he knows what Ministerial responsibility means.

  2. If we cannot protect Refuges, than we cannot protect our own, it’s simple as that.

    And that is why Coalition Goverment’s get away with so much crap.

  3. DN the whole concept of Naru, PNG or Malaysia is that we were pushing our problem out to others. The only justification was to stop deaths at sea. It’s the old “end justifying the means” argument.

  4. Wow, just being hit by a powerful wind (nearly ripped the outside blinds apart) and lots of rain, here in Motown.

    But, despite that, the omniscient Psephos, has proclaimed the “real blame” for the beaten-up and injured on Manus lies with the Asylum Seekers themselves. Or with Rudd (2) Labor.

    Why? Because they ‘knew’ they were not entitled to come here.

    Of course, they should have known they were being sold a pup. Instead of trying to flee a country where they were not welcome.

    Tell that to the Italians.

    Or tell that to Rudd.

    Or, let’s blame the people who try to be humane to others. That will work. Nothing to do with Abbott and Morrison. They’re just doing the dirty work of Rudd Labor.

  5. [Bastard.

    Social services minister Kevin Andrews has ordered the gambling regulator to take a hands-off approach to policing withdrawal limits on ATM machines in gambling venues.
    In a ministerial directive issued on January 29 this year, just days before the new enforcement of ATM limits came into effect, Andrews instructed the National Gambling Regulator “to take an educative approach to the administration of the ATM measure, rather than engaging in active monitoring of compliance”.

    The regulator was also instructed to prioritise applications by pubs and clubs to be exempted from the law. More than 3,200 applications for exemption, on grounds that the law causes “unreasonable inconvenience to the community”, have already been received.]

    Yup, scum and spivs. Cant wait to see if Wilke pipes up and has a few words about this. 🙂

  6. “@stilgherrian: Right. So everyone who’s whinged about Scott Morrison today? In a Liberal electorate? Phone your MP tomorrow. Do it. Just do it.”

  7. “@James_Jeffrey: In the navy/ You can sail the sevens seas/In the navy/Cause diplomatic catastrophe/Reaching Indonesia/ Inadvertently/In the navy/In the navy”

  8. @kimogrady1: So will we be naming and prosecuting these inept vessel commanders who lack basic nav skills? Investigate how they even got command?

    And Neil James springs to their defence in 3..2..1…. You just know he would be all over our screens had this been asserted on Labor’s watch.

  9. [Joe Hockey will hold up New South Wales as an example of how to expand an economy through infrastructure projects when he meets his international counterparts this weekend.]

    NSW Govt lost partly because of tearing itself apart over asset sales, the Bligh Govt was pilloried by the LNP over selling the Port of Brisbane.

    Man up Joe, kick your LNP crazies in the cojones. Admit your side stopped privatisation in NSW and Qld.

  10. KezzaTwo
    Re Manus
    __________
    I agree the problem lies with the placementof asylum seekers in a 4th world country like PNG where to put it bluntly many of the locals are quite barbarous and uncivilized””could you find a worse country in the whole region than PNG

    with all its’ potential, minerals,tourism.crops,….it still lanquishes in savagery
    and when they collapse into a failed state that will be our big problem forever… a kind of South Pacific Somalia or Congo

  11. “@chrismurphys: 6PM:Headlines Morrison:”Accidentally published asylum seeker details online”&”Inadvertently’ breached Indonesian waters 6 times”#auspol”

  12. [davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 6:26 pm | PERMALINK
    DN the whole concept of Naru, PNG or Malaysia is that we were pushing our problem out to others. The only justification was to stop deaths at sea. It’s the old “end justifying the means” argument.]

    Actually, no, the Malaysian solution was not pushing our problem out to others. It was to establish an orderly process for AS (boat people) a la the bipartisan stance taken by Labor when Fraser faced the same problem. Refugees from a war Australia had been/was involved.

    That there was a monumental number of refugees in Malaysia from war-torn countries (of the colonial era) was another issue.

    Yet, your party, the Coalition, refused to vote with Labor. And because the Coalition was intent on making this a filthy divisive issue, and to appease an Australian populace who’d been whipped into hatred by the Coalition, Labor had to use a political solution, or forever be branded as Green (soft-hearted) by your party.

    Yes, I agree, Labor should not have folded, but because of Rudd’s stupidity over the Oceanic Viking, and his subsequent revelations of a “Big Australia”, totally rejected by the msm, the Gillard government had no choice but to find an alternate solution.

    This too was ridiculed by the msm.

    Labor was locked between a rock and a hard place.

    That the Gillard govt chose a hard place is a legacy the likes of Psephos agree with, but most of the rank and file don’t.

    Was it all, always, going to end in tears? Probably.

    However, Australia under Gillard would not have allowed secrecy and bullshit to prevail.

    I don’t care for your passive acceptance of what’s happening under your party. Nor for your implication that it would have been the same under Labor.

    Except, perhaps, if Labor was governed by the sort of rhetoric by the likes of Psephos.

  13. [Our navy does have a chequered history when it comes to navigational mistakes.]

    As the son of a son of a sailor, I think it is disgraceful that Morrison is making his political problem into a Navy problem. He should be sacked by Abbott, along with the 3 star army frootloop who the US Army tried to hide in Iraq they were so embarrassed by him.

  14. davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 6:48 pm | PERMALINK
    Our navy does have a chequered history when it comes to navigational mistakes.

    So you’re actually buying the ‘inadvertant’ blooper meme ?

  15. THIS weekend Australia will tell the world’s 19 biggest economies controlling 85 per cent of global wealth how to manage their affairs.

    Treasurer Joe Hockey will host a Sydney meeting of the finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the G20 — the world’s top 20 economic titans.

    And they won’t be there simply to meet and greet. Mr Hockey wants to deliver some lessons to the economic powerhouses who will be his guests.
    =================================================

    First you sell your heart, soul and ethics to the highest bidder, in this case Rupert the red nose billionaire

    Then you increase the debt level and blame the former Govt.

    Then you pass legislation to reduce revenue.

    Then you attack the weakest and most vulnerable telling them the ‘age of entitlement’ is over while at the same time increasing tax concessions etc to the most wealthy and adding more taxpayer money to their ‘age of entitlement’.

    You kick manufacturing that requires any sort of govt assistance out of the country. This gives you more taxpayer money fir assistance to the privileged few who donated to the Liberal Party

    Then you blame Unions for everything else.

  16. Kezza not that it will much matter what I say but I don’t accept what has happened passively or otherwise. I could refer you to my earlier posts on the current situation but alas I know there isn’t any point. Sigh …

  17. Rex I know I am naive but I find it much easier to accept the navy erred than they deliberately entered another nations territory six times.

  18. On Navy navigational issues. Anyone with a snart phone has a fair bit of accuracy.

    That is your common sense minimum for navigation errors.

    No wonder Indonesia is not buying it.

  19. davidwh

    [not that it will much matter what I say but I don’t accept what has happened passively or otherwise. I could refer you to my earlier posts on the current situation but alas I know there isn’t any point.]

    Stop making excuses then, david. And start manning up to your party.

    But, as long as you’re grandparenting your grandkids instead of babysitting them, then at least I’ve achieved summit. Sigh . . .

  20. It seems the PNG G4S staff are in fact hired by Australia.

    [Sources say local staff, contracted by Australia, are responsible for much of the violence during the attack on Manus Island detention centre on Monday night. Marni Cordell reports

    Multiple sources have now alleged that local Papua New Guinean G4S staff, contracted by Australia, were involved in the attack on Manus Island detention centre on Monday night.

    As NM reported yesterday, at least one person was killed and dozens of others horrifically injured when police from the PNG mobile squad and other PNG nationals attacked detainees at the centre.

    Ian Rintoul from the Refugee Action Coalition has this afternoon said the murdered asylum seeker was a 24-year-old Faili Kurd. There are reports that another Iranian man was flown to Port Moresby for emergency treatment after having his throat slit.

    Now, it’s becoming increasingly clear that many of the “locals”, described by detainees as threatening them with violence prior to Monday’s attack, are in fact employees of the security firm hired by Australia to run the centre.

    A local source told New Matilda on Tuesday night that detainees were “fucking terrified” on Monday afternoon, before the most serious violence erupted, after being threatened by Papua New Guinean G4S guards who would “come past and say they’re going to get us tonight”.]

    So it is ball right up Morrison’s court.

  21. I’m not sure a smartphone will help if you incorrectly plot X as the boundary in your equipment when in fact the boundary is located at Y Guytaur.

  22. [davidwh
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 6:58 pm | PERMALINK
    Rex I know I am naive but I find it much easier to accept the navy erred than they deliberately entered another nations territory six times.]
    Are you serious?

    Shayus Kerrist. I certainly wouldn’t have accepted that had Labor come up with the same lame excuse. And nor would you. And nor would the msm.

    C’mon!

  23. “@DrCraigEmerson: I’m sorry @spoon2011 but at some stage in your life you’ll have to stop blaming the Labor government for everything you don’t like.”

  24. The tin-foil hat faction is out in force tonight.

    In my opinion the fact the incursions were inadvertent is more embarrassing for the Navy than if it had been busted entering Indonesia’s waters wilfully.

  25. And even if Morrison grants refugee status to the traduced ten thousand, What of their countless relatives and associates who will be rounded up in the countries of origin and made to pay, possibly with their lives, on the refugees’ behalf?

    Morrison, you have their blood on your hands.

  26. We are being asked to believe that the Navy did not have maps of the Indonesian territorial waters, its just rubbish.

    It seems the individual Commanders were tasked with returning boats to Indonesia, they were told to do it safely, the only way to do it safely was to enter Indonesian territorial waters, so they did.

    Indonesia knows this, Abbott and Morrison and 3 balls General know this, it just us mushrooms they are trying to feed bullshit.

  27. [DisplayName
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 7:08 pm | PERMALINK
    I find it hard to believe the navy made the same mistake 6 times.]

    They didn’t. It was deliberate.

    It was to make sure they abided by the international law of the sea, rather than suborn themselves to a spiteful, vindictive, nasty, pathetic so-called Christian government of Australia.

    Abott has blood on his hands. Out damn spot, indeed!

  28. The Navy had two directives.

    1. Turn back the boats safely
    2. Do not enter Indonesian territory

    But it became, we cannot return the boats safely without entering Indonesian territory, so they were told to turn off the lights and compromised both directives.

    Someone gave this Order an in time we will know who.

  29. Well it’s nice to know someone as informed as you who isn’t simply assigning whatever weight they feel like to their own opinions and guessing like the rest of us!

    I won’t ask your sources, no doubt they’re confidential.

  30. Imacca @1306

    Might be worth someone looking at Kevin Andrews staff for undeclared interests , given recent ICCAC investigations the Libs corruption / jobs for mates will keep unfolding

  31. ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 7:11 pm | PERMALINK
    We are being asked to believe that the Navy did not have maps of the Indonesian territorial waters, its just rubbish.

    It seems the individual Commanders were tasked with returning boats to Indonesia, they were told to do it safely, the only way to do it safely was to enter Indonesian territorial waters, so they did.

    Indonesia knows this, Abbott and Morrison and 3 balls General know this, it just us mushrooms they are trying to feed bullshit.

    So. I presume the life boat strategy is now kaput ?

  32. Psephos

    [Of course the real blame for all these events rests with those who thought they could buy their way into Australia, knowing full well, as they did, that they were not entitled to come here. It also lies with those who encouraged them to do so, such as the ASRC and similar “refugee advocates.”]

    What nonsense. The IMAs didn’t compel Australia’s ALP and LNP regimes to respond this way. There were a number of other responses open to Australia — some just as bad, some worse and some far better from the POV of humanity. Once you kidnap someone, their responses can be seen as a response to coercion. So if the IMAs did riot they have a defence.

    They also had a right to seek protection from any jurisdiction that seemed apt, including Australia. If Australia was of the opinion that it simply didn’t want its responsibilities under the convention, it should have expressly repudiated them. But it should not have rendered them to some other jurisdiction. If you really don’t want them, then simply put them on the first plane to their place of origin. If you really don’t believe they are at risk and/or don’t care, that’s almost certainly less ethically fraught and less costly. The folks out Lindsay way would love it too.

    But PNG? Malaysia? That’s astonishing.

  33. “@JNadanakumar: Speaking about ending racism and prejudice, @SenatorWong quotes Defence Chief: “The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.” #ANU”

  34. Can someone clarify things in regards to the legal position of the Manus Is. detention center. Who is responsible for the compound has the land been annexed from PNG. If PNG police attacked inmates within the compound does that fall within PNG or AU jurisdiction? It seems to me a real problem for Morriscum.

Comments Page 27 of 33
1 26 27 28 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *