 |
| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Covering coastal Adelaide directly to the west of the city centre, Hindmarsh was the Liberals’ only South Australian gain of the 2013 election, at which Matthew Williams unseated Labor’s member of nine years, Steve Georganas. The electorate was one of seven created when South Australian electoral boundaries were first drawn in 1903, its traditional orientation around the working-class suburbs of north-western Adelaide making it a Labor stronghold for much of its history. The creation of the electorate of Port Adelaide in 1949 made it somewhat less secure, pushing it southwards into more conservative Henley Beach, but only with the 1966 landslide was long-term Labor member Clyde Cameron seriously threatened. The watershed in its progress from safe Labor to marginal came with the abolition of Hawker in 1993, which drew Hindmarsh still further south into Liberal-voting Glenelg. Currently the electorate covers the coast from Semaphore Park south to Glenelg South, from which it extends inland to mostly Labor-voting suburbs including Kidman Park and Torrensville in the north and Morphettville and Ascot Park in the south.
The Liberals’ first ever win in the seat followed the aforementioned redistribution at the 1993 election, which cut the Labor margin by 1.2% concurrently with the retirement of John Scott, who had held the seat since 1980. The Liberal candidate was Christine Gallus, who had become the first Liberal ever to win Hawker in 1990, a feat she duly followed by becoming the first Liberal ever to win Hindmarsh. This was achieved on the back of a 2.8% swing, the losing Labor candidate being John Rau, who has since emerged as a senior figure in the state government. Liberal hard-heads rated Gallus’s vote-pulling power very highly, and were duly dismayed when she decided to retire at the 2004 election. Her departure created an expectation that the seat would fall to Labor’s Steve Georganas, a former taxi driver who won preselection for the 2004 election with backing from the “soft Left” faction. So it proved, but the 1.2% swing to Labor was only enough to secure the deal by 108 votes. The unsuccessful Liberal candidate was Simon Birmingham, who went on to enter the Senate in 2007.
Georganas’s margin increased by 5.0% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2010, but these were modest gains by the standards of Labor’s performance in South Australia, leaving him on a weaker margin than Labor colleagues in Makin, Kingston and Wakefield, which unlike Hindmarsh had stayed with the Liberals in 2004. The margin going into the 2013 election was nonetheless a solid 6.1%, having been boosted slightly by redistribution, but this was accounted for by a forceful swing to the Liberals of 8.0%, the largest in the state. The seat is now held by Matt Williams, who had previously been national business development manager with law firm Piper Alderman.
Dee@350
Choose carefully whose feathers you ruffle! 😀
William, why invoke JC? No 3
Why not?
Dee @ 350, I should add I agree wholeheartedly with William about defamatory comments.
It is very poor form and highly irresponsible for anyone to make them and place William and PB in legal jeopardy. If I see one I think he has missed I will alert him and hope others will do the same.
There was only a meager $5m for Ruperts Broncos. $10 million for Abbott’s Sea Eagles. Taxpayer funded travel allowances claimed so Liberal MP’s could attend the teams matches. These Libs love sport as long as there is something in it for them
Plenty of money to stock “Airforce One” with Abbott favourite booze and lavish food preferences.
Yet no money for jobs
Is that the best you can do?
Bemused
Perhaps the person in question is unaware of the legal implications.
Delete, warn and inform!
Putting Barnett’s shark cull into perspective.
http://pinfos.com/annual-statistics-death/
You’re not making a great deal of sense to me, OL. An expression of exasperation was in order. If “Jesus” is notably inferior to any other, I can’t really see why.
Hola bludgers.
Has anyone else begun to wonder whether what is happening politically at a Federal level might begin to have an effect at State level? Despite the appalling polling figures for Labor in SA, e.g., will this change as the impact of the actions of the LNP federally sink in?
BK:
Hippos cause more deaths annually than volcanoes? That can’t be right.
HSO:
I think even the most optimistic person would concede that there will be changes of govt in both SA and Tas.
[No i don’t {read Janet’s columns} ]
I wouldn’t recommend them. Except maybe as instructional warnings about what you are dealing with. Two or three should suffice.
I grant she is smarter than Miranda (again, not difficult). But otherwise, meh.
————-
Also, I second dave about William dealing just as firmly with offenders from the other side.
Anybody remember that rancid filthmonger, iqsrlow? Only person I have ever asked William to edit/censor/ban. Was hardly on my own there, pretty much unanimous view across PB, including from its regular conservatives.
William, as this is a Hindmarsh thread, would you know, beyond the demographics in your post, how susceptible the people of Hindmarsh may be to the impact of the demise of the car industry?
Dee@357
If they offer that defence, then William should invoke his ‘stupidity rule’ which he used to ban truthy. 👿
This debate would be worth watching.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/bill-nye-marsha-blackburn-meet-the-press-climate-change/
confessions
I wouldn’t have a clue about the source of the hippo info.
The New York Times article on Australian/US spying on US lawyers representing Indonesia in a trade dispute is here. The article is chiefly centred on the aspect of NSA spying on American lawyers but has quite a bit on the US/Indonesian trade dispute and the role of Australia.
It looks as if Timor Leste is not the only apparent victim of “economic” spying at a national level.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/16/us/eavesdropping-ensnared-american-law-firm.html?hp&_r=0
confessions, yes, I appreciate what you’re saying.
I’m just wondering, without having anything to back it up, whether there may be some sort of tipping point where what happens federally might begin to influence what happens at say, State levels.
If people in the U.K are being frank about the impact of human behaviour on climate change, i.e., it has entered their political discourse in a serious way, how long can Australia stay wrapped in the msm bubble and real effects start to bite voting intention?
Bemused
[If they offer that defence, then William should invoke his ‘stupidity rule’ which he used to ban truthy]
How many times have you been banned? 👿
Big legal day in Melbourne on Tuesday with HC judgment in WA senate and magistrate in Thomson.
Dee@369
More than I deserved and never permanently.
I have now worked out what particularly annoys William and avoid it.
HSO:
Both SA and Tas govts are old. Esp Tas.
I don’t know whether there is a tipping point, but if there was maybe it would be the time in office, the sense of stagnation, and whether voters feel the other mob deserves a go than any specific thing happening federally.
Dunno.
Over 200 people per year are killed by hippos
[William, as this is a Hindmarsh thread, would you know, beyond the demographics in your post, how susceptible the people of Hindmarsh may be to the impact of the demise of the car industry?]
I could refer you to the number of manufacturing workers in South Australia’s electorates:
Adelaide 5452
Barker 9422
Boothby 4436
Grey 5231
Hindmarsh 5625
Kingston 8146
Makin 7881
Mayo 5705
Port Adelaide 10443
Sturt 5062
Wakefield 10403
I’d infer from that that car industry workers tend to live further away from the city, and are mostly in Labor-held seats.
From the website Dangerous Animals
5. Hippos
Although hippos may look cute and friendly, they are definitely one animal you do not want to cross. Easily frightened and extremely aggressive, hippos will not hesitate to attack a human, especially if one of its young babies are near. Hippos pose the biggest threat to those living in the continent of Africa.
Death Toll: 300+ per year
And from Huffington Post
Hippos Kill Nearly 3000 People A Year
I thought this was important so am reposting for those who may have missed it.
Nothing in our media?
BEIJING – China and the United States, the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases, pledged on Saturday to work together to attenuate the effects of global climate change.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-02/15/content_17284911.htm
What the feck are our spooks doing spying on commercial matters. I realise the 5 eyes stuff means we have to share but this is crap.
shellbell – prepared to take a stab at the Senate decision ?
🙂
Hippo’s. They certainly have the “Great Gnashing Teef” down pat.
AA:
I know hippos can be dangerous, but I’m still questioning the 2,900 figure. And esp compared with deaths from volcanoes.
Thanks, very interesting information William, and confessions.
William, do you think it would be useful, and doable, to map people in threatened industries, as a proportion of the population in respective electorates, as compared to voting intention over time?
I ask, due to the volatility of the polls, in recent times, and whether perceived threat to one’s livelihood may be becoming a bigger factor than usual. The various uncertainty, whether the country is “going in the right direction” measures, don’t seem to be cross-related in any analysis I’ve sen.
To me it does seem like our spooks were/are a law unto themselves. I find it very hard to believe that the previous government had a chance to approve the controversial spying that has been revealed.
It seems much more likely that our spooks have such a broad remit and are so keen to please the Americans that they just go out of their way to do whatever will make the Americans happy. I can’t imagine Faulkner, eg, saying “yup, wiretapping SBY’s wife’s phone sounds like a good idea to me” or “sure, spying on that company negotiating with the Indonesians seems legit”.
I don’t think these decisions ever reached the politicians, and if that’s the case the agencies in question have got way too much latitude and way too little supervision.
[National smoking ban law in preparation]
[China’s moves against smoking.]
[China’s health authorities are working on a law banning smoking in all indoor public venues while clarifying punishments.]
[Work on a draft began last year and the National Health and Family Planning Commission is working hard to have national lawmakers issue laws on smoking control with stronger powers than current regulations, the commission told a news conference in Beijing on Jan7.]
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-01/13/content_17232485.htm
seen, that is.
Posting in the dark – try dancing to it!
[William, do you think it would be useful, and doable, to map people in threatened industries, as a proportion of the population in respective electorates, as compared to voting intention over time?]
Probably not very. Hindmarsh has a middling amount of manufacturing workers, and – to pick one demographic example – a large number of Greeks. It’s difficult to tell from an election result which particular factor is causing the overall breeze to blow in a particular direction. You really need to survey individual voters.
Oh Dear. You mean THAT $90b? the systemic pattern of pre-election lies unravelling
[Malcolm Turnbull’s Parliamentary Secretary Minister Paul Fletcher has admitted that the Coalition’s estimate of the cost of Labor’s NBN was ‘perhaps a little high’.
Oh … THAT $34 billion! In the lead up to the last Federal Election, Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition incessantly said that the real cost of Labor’s NBN would be in the order of $90 billion, compared to Labor’s own figure of $39 billion.
Turnbull’s Assistant Minister has now said that NBN Co’s internal review of Labor’s NBN costed it at $56 billion, still high but much closer to Labor’s figure than the inflated estimate the Coalition took to the election.]
http://www.itwire.com/it-policy-news/govenrment-tech-policy/63161-maybe-we-did-overestimate-labor%E2%80%99s-nbn-cost-admits-government
[To me it does seem like our spooks were/are a law unto themselves.]
Mum was in Canberra recently and she said they’ve completely re-routed the road so you no longer can drive past the ASIO building – previously you drove past it on the way to the airport.
She also said the building has been done up and is now the largest of all the APS buildings, which would be remarkable given that ASIO has nowhere near the number of civillian employees as Defence (which occupies a huge building next door to ASIO). And I can’t see their building being bigger than DFAT’s, which occupies an entire block next to Treasury.
Perhaps Canberra Bludgers can shed some light.
Thanks, William. Catch you all later.
Volcano Deaths then I suppose it will be like the hippo deaths..depends on the website
2010-353
2011-31
2002-245
2014 – 15
1815-92,000
1883 – 35,000
Hi HSO.
If you are interested in the car industry and it’s problems, this article is interesting.
Spinning wheels and shaky deals
[With the announcement that Toyota will stop its manufacturing in Australia in 2017, Australia has become one of the few wealthy nations on the planet without a car industry. But there’s a good argument that Australia never had a car industry in the first place.
The mass production industry began with General Motors Holden’s FX model in 1948, with GMH being a 100 per cent-owned subsidiary of General Motors in the United States. The same pattern followed with Ford, then Chrysler, and at one time up to five foreign-owned car manufacturers were producing almost exclusively for the Australian domestic car market. This is very different to all other car-producing nations, which normally began with domestic manufacturers expanding output, firstly for a local market and then for exports. Many of these were subsequently bought out by the major US and Japanese producers during the Age of Globalisation, but for at least three decades after WWII, most car producers were nationally-owned affairs.
Except in Australia, where the car industry was shaped more by government policy than by the evolution of local manufacturing.
The government policy motivation for inviting foreign car manufacturers to set up shop here was employment. The early post-WWII economic ideology was a very different one to that which prevails today, best epitomised in my favourite phrase from the 1945 White Paper, Full Employment in Australia. The emphasis was, it said:
“To maintain such pressure on employment as to guarantee a shortage of men rather than a shortage of jobs.”
This could have been done by encouraging locally-owned manufacturing, but it was faster to entice foreign manufacturers to either expand existing plants (as with GMH) or set up shop here (as with many others including Leyland, Volkswagen, Renault) via the carrot of a largely captive local market and the stick of high tariff barriers.
This employment strategy had many Achilles heels, but to me the outstanding one was economies of scale.]
This is a very good and thought provoking analysis.
It leads me to conclude that the car industry in its current form was unlikely to continue.
We needed radical re-structuring and sufficient protection to match our competitors. Australian ownership would have helped too.
God loves Tony Abbott. He sent the rain so that headlines could read: ‘Abbott brings rain to drought-affected farmers.’
God regards Tony Abbott as a joke.She sent the rain so we had news footage of a damp Tony and a drenched Barnaby talking about drought-relief assistance, while being drowned out by torrential rain.
I’d heard that Tony was planning to use an old rusted ute instead of a luxury air-conditioned 4 wheel drive, but I think that media stunt got bogged.
This is part of transcript of insiders today.
BARRIE CASSIDY: Three days ago an Indian student took his own life at a detention centre in Melbourne. He was in that centre because he overstayed his visa. Could that have been avoided?
SCOTT MORRISON: Could he have avoided overstaying his visa?
BARRIE CASSIDY: Is there a better way to deal with a student who overstays his visa?
What a disgrace
Notice the difference
Abbott orders two Royal Commissions – both vindictive politically motivated.
Gillard ordered a Royal Commission to defend and assist abused children
[BARRIE CASSIDY: Three days ago an Indian student took his own life at a detention centre in Melbourne. He was in that centre because he overstayed his visa. Could that have been avoided?
SCOTT MORRISON: Could he have avoided overstaying his visa?
BARRIE CASSIDY: Is there a better way to deal with a student who overstays his visa?
What a disgrace]
vic
It’s Sunday. He would have left the studio and gone straight to his happy clapping church for a recharge.
My father used to say, never trust any man the publicly claims to be religious, Scott Morrison is proof he is right.
BK
Can you imagine the outrage had it been a Labor MP let alone Minisfer for Immigration. Seriously this man is disgusting
frednk
My brother calls the coalition govt, “the god squad”.
Executive summary of this government: Private schoolboys governing for private schoolboys. Am I missing anything?
Fair Go Country @geeksrulz 38m
Abbott explains how he rescued the Aussie Car Industry and how he will do the same for Aussie Farming. pic.twitter.com/qGnpDTHb8Z
Spooks.
Is it protocol to seek permission from politicians to spy?