Seat of the week: Hindmarsh

Maintaining the recent South Australian focus ahead of the looming state election, the latest instalment of Seat of the Week takes us to the only electorate in the state to change hands at the September federal election.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Covering coastal Adelaide directly to the west of the city centre, Hindmarsh was the Liberals’ only South Australian gain of the 2013 election, at which Matthew Williams unseated Labor’s member of nine years, Steve Georganas. The electorate was one of seven created when South Australian electoral boundaries were first drawn in 1903, its traditional orientation around the working-class suburbs of north-western Adelaide making it a Labor stronghold for much of its history. The creation of the electorate of Port Adelaide in 1949 made it somewhat less secure, pushing it southwards into more conservative Henley Beach, but only with the 1966 landslide was long-term Labor member Clyde Cameron seriously threatened. The watershed in its progress from safe Labor to marginal came with the abolition of Hawker in 1993, which drew Hindmarsh still further south into Liberal-voting Glenelg. Currently the electorate covers the coast from Semaphore Park south to Glenelg South, from which it extends inland to mostly Labor-voting suburbs including Kidman Park and Torrensville in the north and Morphettville and Ascot Park in the south.

The Liberals’ first ever win in the seat followed the aforementioned redistribution at the 1993 election, which cut the Labor margin by 1.2% concurrently with the retirement of John Scott, who had held the seat since 1980. The Liberal candidate was Christine Gallus, who had become the first Liberal ever to win Hawker in 1990, a feat she duly followed by becoming the first Liberal ever to win Hindmarsh. This was achieved on the back of a 2.8% swing, the losing Labor candidate being John Rau, who has since emerged as a senior figure in the state government. Liberal hard-heads rated Gallus’s vote-pulling power very highly, and were duly dismayed when she decided to retire at the 2004 election. Her departure created an expectation that the seat would fall to Labor’s Steve Georganas, a former taxi driver who won preselection for the 2004 election with backing from the “soft Left” faction. So it proved, but the 1.2% swing to Labor was only enough to secure the deal by 108 votes. The unsuccessful Liberal candidate was Simon Birmingham, who went on to enter the Senate in 2007.

Georganas’s margin increased by 5.0% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2010, but these were modest gains by the standards of Labor’s performance in South Australia, leaving him on a weaker margin than Labor colleagues in Makin, Kingston and Wakefield, which unlike Hindmarsh had stayed with the Liberals in 2004. The margin going into the 2013 election was nonetheless a solid 6.1%, having been boosted slightly by redistribution, but this was accounted for by a forceful swing to the Liberals of 8.0%, the largest in the state. The seat is now held by Matt Williams, who had previously been national business development manager with law firm Piper Alderman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

448 comments on “Seat of the week: Hindmarsh”

Comments Page 7 of 9
1 6 7 8 9
  1. Bemused

    It was just an opinion as Mary Ann, i do consider her to be a quality candidate but she doesn’t appear to have the popular support of the Macedon rank n file which of course can change but as she is a Melbourne girl and comes from the neighboring suburb maybe she would be ideal for Pascoe Vale.

    I believe there are other candidates in Pascoe Vale who may have more support and so be it.

  2. mexicanbeemer@302

    Bemused

    It was just an opinion as Mary Ann, i do consider her to be a quality candidate but she doesn’t appear to have the popular support of the Macedon rank n file which of course can change but as she is a Melbourne girl and comes from the neighboring suburb maybe she would be ideal for Pascoe Vale.

    I believe there are other candidates in Pascoe Vale who may have more support and so be it.

    Anyone seriously seeking pre-selection in any seat needs to do some basic work with the local party members to achieve at least acceptability as a pre-selection candidate. That doesn’t necessarily mean majority local support, but at least significant local support and an absence of overt hostility from those supporting other candidates.

    It seems Mary Ann probably met this criteria in Batman and got the rough end of the pineapple there. The culprit? Another rotten factional stitch-up.

    This has to end.

  3. The problem with Q&A is just Tony Jones and the sad mix of panel members.

    However, having said this, it is probably the format which is at fault.

    The program passes itself off as allowing the audience to ask the questions whereas Jones can’t get off his interlocutor horse long enough to let the questions be properly responded to.

    As far as Mrs Abbott is concerned, I don’t know and don’t care what her relationship is with Mr Abbott.

    The fact that the national media, during PMJG’s time had little compunction in bagging all things political and personal has far as Gillard is concerned, means politicians who put their family members up for photo opportunities can expect to cop some personal stuff at other times.

    If it is good enough to have the kids and the little woman on display (good family values the underlying theme?) then I guess the downside is the likelihood of snide comments at other times.

    I know it cost Sattler his job at 6PR, but it did not stop him thinking he could get away with highly offensives personal stuff against Gillard and her partner at the time.

    I do not shed many tears for the real or feigned concerned about a few pollies and their partners copping a bit of flack when they buy into the potency of the effects of helpful media on the up and run the risk of down side destructive.

    I thought John Howard, despite his many faults, took most of this in his stride even when it must have been quite hurtful to he and his good lady.

    Meanwhile, many years ago when Ming was going to retire and live in Haverbrack Avenue in Toorak (was it?) he was big enough to cope and comment, that as so many people went to look at his new house it should be called “Haverlook” Avenue.

    Much more serene in those days but still an attack on the old boy’s privacy at the time.

  4. [There were many conversations on PBer about the slurs and slander splashed across the national media about JG and her partner.]

    Conversations about slurs and slander are utterly different things from slurs and slander. Comments comparable to those made by SGH were never allowed here.

    [I hardly think a comment regarding a PBer’s observations is going to rock the world …]

    Some pin-brained bottom-feeder commenting on Tim Mathieson at Larry Pickering’s blog didn’t “rock the world” either, but that in no way justifies indulging in defamatory and malicious fantasies, or makes you anything other than a hypocrite for defending those who do so.

    [… and it certainly wasn’t attacking Margie’s character.]

    Jesus.

  5. Sheezus you can’t say Abbott’s wife despises him and they share a marriage of convenience.

    It’s a send off!

    On a more important front:

    Centre 1

    Bookies ZIP

    Good pipe opener for the season ahead 😛

  6. Centre

    If it was true maybe so but what evidence is the comment based on, if someone wrote Tim must hate Gillard because he hasn’t popped the question we would be calling that out would we not.

  7. Centre,

    [Sheezus you can’t say Abbott’s wife despises him and they share a marriage of convenience.]

    I think the more important question would be: Why do you need to?

  8. [And the same with his green and gold track suit.]

    Talking of the Rodent in a track suit remember when he visited George W? Wasn’t it Latham who said it was un-Australian to wear matching top & bottoms? :LOL:

  9. Beemer

    If Abbott used his parliamentary credit card for a body massage or some sort then maybe you could get into that area, otherwise let’s just stick to Abbott’s uselessness in his job.

  10. deblonay

    [right-dominated State Exec]

    bzzt.

    The Left is calling the shots in Admin (which is the relevant body), not the Right.

    Just got back from a meeting in Melbourne chaired by a Left wing member of the POSC, who utterly defended their decision not to back Zahra

  11. Centre

    Well now you mention Tone’s government the list of uselessness is every so lengthy, Boerwar is doing a fine job of keeping up with it all.

  12. on 2GB.. Miranda Devine has been interviewing Alan “chaffe-bag” Jones on the topic of Tony Abbott

    [ Retweeted by Miranda Devine

    1/2 Alan Jones on @2GB873 with @mirandadevine “Tony Abbott has such remarkable credentials for someone offering himself for public office”

    @2GB873 @mirandadevine ..”Humility, decency, dedication, a good scholar and has grace and dignity.” Media and social media are so wrong]

  13. Dee, I demand that certain standards be observed on my blog, both for legal reasons — SGH’s comment was unarguably defamatory, and Margie Abbott would be entirely within her rights to sue me for allowing it to be published — and for moral reasons, which you obviously would not be able to understand.

  14. Q&A and Insiders dropped off my list many years ago.

    Q&A at least has the modest justification of the public having some direct involvement, though the mere thought of watching the show still makes me head for a good book or jazz album.

    Insiders is basically an incestuous humpfest for political journos and pollies. It’s only good bit is the photo/cartoon segment, but that isn’t enough, not even close.

    ABC should ditch Insiders, and rotate moderators in Q&A. Tony Jones can have his turn, but along with maybe half-a-dozen others, including a mix of old and new journalistic blood.

    ———————————

    As for the Margie Abbott stuff. Best left alone. Apart from any questions of decency, pushing that barrow it just gives your political opponents free ammo.

    You sure you want to give Tony Abbott the chance to look a morally superior victim, no matter how transparently bogus, hypocritical, and offensive his claim may be?

    Yes, yes, I know it galls mightily that his mob showed no such restraint and mercy to Gillard, stills makes me steam. But that is not a justification, in any sense, to join them in the cesspit.

    MA’s relationship with her husband is not the target you are looking for.

  15. After watching Miranda Devine and Janet A on Sky News Janet comes off as okay but Miranda comes across as nasty.

    I know there are some here who bag Janet but she does seem more even handed than Miranda.

  16. Can anyone tell me what the current state of seats is in South Australia assuming the redistributions and no swing?

    (In other words which seats nominally changed hands based on the redistribution?)

  17. [ Dee
    Posted Sunday, February 16, 2014 at 5:43 pm | Permalink

    Why are boundaries enforced for Rabbott?]

    In fairness Dee, I can recall one the the tory trolls posting something vile about Gillard quite a while ago and I emailed William bringing his attention to it.

    He has already seen it and banned the person in question, who had already been on thin ice.

  18. [Having observed Margie’s body language very carefully, I have arrived at the conclusion that you’re a malicious douchebag.]

    William,

    I need to know – right now – that you don’t actually analyse Margie’s body language.

  19. [314
    Centre

    If Abbott used his parliamentary credit card for a body massage or some sort then maybe you could get into that area, otherwise let’s just stick to Abbott’s uselessness in his job.]

    Certainly no lack of material.

    [ @mirandadevine ..”Humility, decency, dedication, a good scholar and has grace and dignity.” ]

    Gonna need more than a standard bucket to cope with this vomitogenic crawling.

    Word must be out among the Con troops that Tones reputation is not doing too well in the non-Murdoch controlled media.

  20. I see Barnaby Joyce is involved in another bogged 4WD episode. This time in drought.

    He can bog a Toyota anywhere any weather, 😆

  21. I see on Twitter, a bit of Victorian state election gossip and it should be treated as gossip but the Liberals are apparently a little concerned about the safe seat Caulfield (9%) and whilst i think they should be able to hold it i have heard similar mutterings.

  22. [(In other words which seats nominally changed hands based on the redistribution?]

    Either one or zero, depending on whom you ask. The Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission thinks the Labor-held seat of Bright now has a Liberal margin of 0.1%, but their methodology is a bit goofy. Antony Green and Jenni Newton-Farrelly both agree the seat has a Labor margin of 0.5%.

    From a piece I wrote for Crikey recently:

    [Green’s margins suggest the uniform swing required to cost Labor its majority is 0.6%, whereas the EDBC has it at 1.5%. In other words, a system that supposedly enshrines electoral fairness has the Liberals shooting for either 52.2% or 53.1% merely to reduce the other side to a minority.

    Assuming the three sitting independents are re-elected, the target facing the Liberals for majority government is a daunting 54.2% on Green’s numbers, or 54.3% on the EDBC’s. But that, of course, assumes an alternative reality in which swings are perfectly uniform. As history shows, the reality for the Liberals could be quite a lot better — or worse.]

  23. [321
    mexicanbeemer

    I know there are some here who bag Janet but she does seem more even handed than Miranda.]

    You read Janet’s columns?

    Not to mention that being a little more even handed than Miranda is no great achievement or recommendation.

  24. Yowser!!!!!

    [Voters in Western Australia will find out on Tuesday if they are to return to the polls for a second Senate election.

    The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has confirmed that High Court Justice Kenneth Hayne will hand down his decision in the Court of Disputed Returns this week.

    “The AEC has been advised that Justice Hayne will be handing down a decision on the petitions on Tuesday 18 February 2014 in Melbourne at 12 noon,” AEC spokesman Phil Diak told AAP on Saturday.

    The commonwealth auditor-general had warned the commission at least four years ago about the flaws which led to 1370 votes going missing in the 2013 election.

    Advertisement
    The AEC has apologised for the debacle and called for the entire Senate election to be declared void and held again.

    One of its arguments is that 1370 voters whose ballots were lost in between the initial scrutiny and a recount have been denied the chance to vote. The recount was requested, rejected, then granted upon appeal.

    The first count delivered the final two WA Senate places to Zhenya Wang of the Palmer United Party (PUP) and Labor’s Louise Pratt.

    After a recount the candidates elected to the fifth and sixth Senate positions were the Australian Sports Party’s Wayne Dropulich and Greens Senator Scott Ludlam.

    Lawyers for the ALP and Mr Wang are calling for the first result to be upheld.]

    http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/wa-senate-decision-to-be-handed-down-20140215-32s59.html

  25. @mirandadevine ..”Humility, decency, dedication, a good scholar and has grace and dignity.”

    Such compliments and I don’t remember ever meeting her.

  26. Thanks, William.

    That was the impression I was getting from reading the ABC site! I just didn’t get it. Needing >54% to win government after the redistribution seems whacko!

    I understand the circumstances prior to an election, but why has this been allowed to persist after the redistribution?

  27. William

    I do understand William.

    But why not just cut the comment and give a warning as you do with others instead of lowering yourself to verbal abuse and condescension.

  28. [I understand the circumstances prior to an election, but why has this been allowed to persist after the redistribution?]

    Because dicking around with boundaries to produce desired electoral outcomes only gets you so far. Before the 2010 election, the EDBC went to great lengths to produce a set of boundaries that would have given the Liberals a majority if they had achieved 50%+ on 2PP with a uniform swing. The Liberals then proceeded to get double-digit swings in pretty much every safe Labor seat in Adelaide, while striking out nearly everywhere that mattered (3.3% swing in marginal Hartley, 3.0% in marginal Newland, swings to Labor in the most marginal seats of all, Mawson and Light). The EDBC would have had to have done bizarre things to the boundaries this time around to beat them into the required shape, with no guarantee that another highly non-uniform swing wouldn’t have thwarted them again.

  29. [But why not just cut the comment and give a warning as you do with others instead of lowering yourself to verbal abuse and condescension.]

    Because people who peddle malicious fantasies about other people’s personal lives deserve to be told that they’re nasty and stupid, and people who selectively stand up for such behaviour deserve to be told that they’re hypocrites.

  30. Ta……hhhhmmmm….very interesting.

    Looks like the defeat of the ALP in South Australia is by no means a certainty after all! They ALP machine must have been masterful campaigners to orchestrate such a perfect storm of local level swinging and not swinging to hang on so easily in 2010.

    I hadn’t appreciated just how uneven the swings were at the local seat level.

  31. Mod,

    [They ALP machine must have been masterful campaigners to orchestrate such a perfect storm of local level swinging and not swinging to hang on so easily in 2010.]

    But doesn’t that assume that local matters don’t really influence voters, as well they might?

  32. Dee@341

    such behaviour deserve to be told that they’re hypocrites.


    Speaking of hypocrits…..

    Dee, take it from one who has made similar mistakes and paid the price, you are on thin ice. 😐

  33. The whole idea of trying to balance seats so they are 50-50 politically has nits all over it.

    Communities of interest should be grouped together as best as possible, electorate sizes should be similar and if this produces safe Lib or ALP or Green seats, so be it.

  34. As a political science ignoramus, I’ve never really considered the implications of electoral boundaries and stuff, but it would seem, at a glance, to be a pretty important thing.

  35. [ruawake
    Posted Sunday, February 16, 2014 at 7:08 pm | PERMALINK
    The whole idea of trying to balance seats so they are 50-50 politically has nits all over it.

    Communities of interest should be grouped together as best as possible, electorate sizes should be similar and if this produces safe Lib or ALP or Green seats, so be it.]

    Do you have a problem with the Republican boundaries in the US Congress which resulted in 54% of the seats with 47.6% of the vote?

  36. Jake@345

    As a political science ignoramus, I’ve never really considered the implications of electoral boundaries and stuff, but it would seem, at a glance, to be a pretty important thing.

    Then you must to be too young to remember the outrageous Gerrymanders that Australia once had, particularly Qld.

    Read up on the topic here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymander

  37. Bemused

    [Dee, take it from one who has made similar mistakes and paid the price, you are on thin ice.]
    Killjoy!

    I thought I’d have some fun ruffling some feathers! 😀

Comments Page 7 of 9
1 6 7 8 9

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *