Seat of the week: Hindmarsh

Maintaining the recent South Australian focus ahead of the looming state election, the latest instalment of Seat of the Week takes us to the only electorate in the state to change hands at the September federal election.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Covering coastal Adelaide directly to the west of the city centre, Hindmarsh was the Liberals’ only South Australian gain of the 2013 election, at which Matthew Williams unseated Labor’s member of nine years, Steve Georganas. The electorate was one of seven created when South Australian electoral boundaries were first drawn in 1903, its traditional orientation around the working-class suburbs of north-western Adelaide making it a Labor stronghold for much of its history. The creation of the electorate of Port Adelaide in 1949 made it somewhat less secure, pushing it southwards into more conservative Henley Beach, but only with the 1966 landslide was long-term Labor member Clyde Cameron seriously threatened. The watershed in its progress from safe Labor to marginal came with the abolition of Hawker in 1993, which drew Hindmarsh still further south into Liberal-voting Glenelg. Currently the electorate covers the coast from Semaphore Park south to Glenelg South, from which it extends inland to mostly Labor-voting suburbs including Kidman Park and Torrensville in the north and Morphettville and Ascot Park in the south.

The Liberals’ first ever win in the seat followed the aforementioned redistribution at the 1993 election, which cut the Labor margin by 1.2% concurrently with the retirement of John Scott, who had held the seat since 1980. The Liberal candidate was Christine Gallus, who had become the first Liberal ever to win Hawker in 1990, a feat she duly followed by becoming the first Liberal ever to win Hindmarsh. This was achieved on the back of a 2.8% swing, the losing Labor candidate being John Rau, who has since emerged as a senior figure in the state government. Liberal hard-heads rated Gallus’s vote-pulling power very highly, and were duly dismayed when she decided to retire at the 2004 election. Her departure created an expectation that the seat would fall to Labor’s Steve Georganas, a former taxi driver who won preselection for the 2004 election with backing from the “soft Left” faction. So it proved, but the 1.2% swing to Labor was only enough to secure the deal by 108 votes. The unsuccessful Liberal candidate was Simon Birmingham, who went on to enter the Senate in 2007.

Georganas’s margin increased by 5.0% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2010, but these were modest gains by the standards of Labor’s performance in South Australia, leaving him on a weaker margin than Labor colleagues in Makin, Kingston and Wakefield, which unlike Hindmarsh had stayed with the Liberals in 2004. The margin going into the 2013 election was nonetheless a solid 6.1%, having been boosted slightly by redistribution, but this was accounted for by a forceful swing to the Liberals of 8.0%, the largest in the state. The seat is now held by Matt Williams, who had previously been national business development manager with law firm Piper Alderman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

448 comments on “Seat of the week: Hindmarsh”

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  1. lizzie,

    [It was so obvious that only Lib supporters would contribute to that piece that I wondered how the editor had the gall to accept it.]

    The article does shine a light onto the discrepancy between their rhetoric and the reality. Liberal party member or not, it’s in their interests to be dishonest and inflate the problems or conflate them with pricing carbon. It would arguable have looked better for them just to have told the truth.

  2. rossmcg

    Was from a farm and every time a “VIP” type turned up in the area it meant for us kids having to wear shoes and being plastered with Brylcreem and given a “cow lick ” hair style.

  3. rossmcg

    [It was bad enough when John Howard used to dig out the R M Williams gear for his rural vists. ]
    It was always truly hilarious when the Rodent turned up in his Akubra ,moleskins and country road shirts with all creases intact fresh from the show room. He looked so comfortable and natural 😆

  4. Poroti

    Yep I can remember photos of the ex as a kid dressed up for afternoon tea on Sunday on the farm.

    Puff

    Yep, they roll over every three years and somehow expect that the Tories will look after them.

  5. [It was always truly hilarious when the Rodent turned up in his Akubra ,moleskins and country road shirts with all creases intact fresh from the show room. He looked so comfortable and natural ]
    And the same with his green and gold track suit.

  6. Lizzie

    Because Margie can’t stand Tone… at all. Even she knows he is a odious cretin. Just look at the body language. Margie despises him. Typical marriage of convenience.

  7. [242
    Bugler

    The cost is “hiding”, and the actual condition of the business isn’t relevant, apparently.]

    Oh those sneaky hidden costs.

    Can put a man out of business, if he tries too hard to find them.

  8. I’ve priced the final:

    Cows $1.80

    Broncos $2.00

    The Warriors were too short (odds). You should never give an inch if you want to win in betting 😎

  9. guytaur

    Posted Sunday, February 16, 2014 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    @ACTPolicing: Bureau of Meteorology has issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL & DAMAGING WIND for #Canberra. See: http://t.co/aBjxl3mHGe
    ——————————————–

    Revenge for Abbott claiming he brought the rain to those drought areas.

  10. I just got off the Vaccination info (yeah right) mob’s page on Facebook. After posting the science, reason, critical thinking etc they finally pulled the plug on me and deleted all my posts.
    Cowards.

  11. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Posted Sunday, February 16, 2014 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    I just got off the Vaccination info (yeah right) mob’s page on Facebook. After posting the science, reason, critical thinking etc they finally pulled the plug on me and deleted all my posts.
    Cowards.
    ========================================

    Pro or anti???

  12. Damned irresponsible idiots. They want to talk to my Mum about refusing vaccinations for their kids. She would have their hide off with a stockwhip

  13. [Because Margie can’t stand Tone… at all. Even she knows he is a odious cretin. Just look at the body language. Margie despises him. Typical marriage of convenience.]

    Having observed Margie’s body language very carefully, I have arrived at the conclusion that you’re a malicious douchebag.

  14. Just watching Sky News . A triple 😆 PMBO wearing a two size too small blue shirt whilst delivering rain to the drought affected. Ooo he is so manly.

  15. Funny thing about the carbon tax questions and answers, not one asked how much the state govt pushed prices up, I know here in WA we are looking at 2 maybe 3 more price rises to take the price rises imposed by the Liberal STATE govt up to around 69% more.
    Carbon tax is not in the race so far as rises go,look to State Govts first

  16. In Vicoria the dispute over the pre-slection of a candidate for the amkarginal seat of Macedon for the ALP.. has seen Race Mathews a former Chief of Staff for Whitlam issue an open letter deploring the actions of the right-dominated State Exec
    in defying a local vote and choosing an outside from Melbourne for the seat…a marginal which labor MUST hold

    the Exec has made a dangerous decision
    http://www.springstsource.info/chief-of-staff-to-gough-whitlam-calling-for-intervention-in-macedon/
    see below

  17. William Bowe

    [Having observed Margie’s body language very carefully]
    What you say may well be true BUT. Kiwi “body language” is not that of Australia. It is very much influenced by Polynesian custom. Things like looking someone in the eye. Not a sign of honesty but more a sign of disrespect or a challenge.

  18. Regarding Abbbott’s relationship or not. If it transpires he is cheating on his wife with a man that is of public interest due to hypocrisy in opposing SSM.

    Othewise not our business

  19. The Australian is calling Abbott the ‘Rainmaker PM’ like he personally waved his hands and influenced the weather.

    Sometimes I wonder whether that paper isn’t trying its hand at satire.

  20. Well i’ve seen the ute and really there was nothing unusual about it, a pretty standard ute, i do wonder about some people around here.

  21. [The Australian is calling Abbott the ‘Rainmaker PM’ like he personally waved his hands and influenced the weather.]
    Tomorrow they will credit him for the sunrise.

  22. I question the need to be discussing Tone’s personal life, if the same conversation was happening about Gillard and Tim the sulking here would be a flood.

  23. That Macedon pre-selection is an unnecessary mess consider the vacant seat of Pascoe Vale would be ideal for Mary-Ann Thomas

  24. [The Australian is calling Abbott the ‘Rainmaker PM’ like he personally waved his hands and influenced the weather.]

    Maybe we could just pay Abbott to parade around the drought hit areas 24/7. Probably cheaper than the $10m of taxpayers money Malcolm Turnbull gave some Russian cloud seeding outfit in the dying days of the Howard government.

    Wonder what the farmers doing it tough think of Smart-alec Abbott claiming the rain as his doing, and being trumpeted as such by the Murdoch lackeys?

  25. Confessions

    You probably would recall that late in Howard’s term he visited a very dry part of the WA wheatbelt and it duly rained.
    The drought in the eastern states still had a couple of years to run though,he couldn’t do much about that
    Tories think Howard and Abbott walk on water but they can’t make it rain

  26. Can Tony Abbott come to Sydney and pray for the rain to go away? I’m over this particular rain event. We’ve had three days of gloomy grey twilight with the temperature stuck at 22-24 day and all night, humidity stuck at 90%, need for lights on during the day, in return for about 15 millimeters, an amount of rain we’d get in 30 minutes of a half-decent thunderstorm.

  27. Q. Why in the f**k is THIS not “unpatriotic”?

    Australia spied on Indonesia trade talks: report
    AN Australian spy agency offered to share with its US counterpart information from surveillance of an American law firm representing Indonesia in trade disputes with the US, the New York Times reports.

    The report threatens to revive tensions with Jakarta sparked by revelations late last year that Australian spies attempted to tap the phone of Indonesia’s president and his wife.

    While not commenting on “operational intelligence matters”, Tony Abbott said today Australia did not use intelligence “to the detriment of other countries” or for “commercial purposes”.

    The Times story is based on a top-secret document obtained by former US National Security Agency systems analyst Edward Snowden and provided by an NSA liaison office in Canberra in a monthly bulletin.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/australia-spied-on-indonesia-trade-talks-report/story-fn59nm2j-1226828560839

    A. Because when it’s in Murdoch’sThe Australian, quoted from Murdoch’s The Times, it’s automatically in the national interest.

  28. [Wonder what the farmers doing it tough think of Smart-alec Abbott claiming the rain as his doing, and being trumpeted as such by the Murdoch lackeys?]

    They’ll probably think he’s a boofhead, but ‘that’s Tony being Tony’, so it’s all okay.

  29. MB
    There were many conversations on PBer about the slurs and slander splashed across the national media about JG and her partner.

    There was no restraint from experienced journos who gave their observations rinsed in right wing swill a thorough going over.

    Matheson’s sexuality was questioned, calling him Gillard’s ‘gay hand bag’ etc..

    A partner of convenience and all such slurs across national media.

    Why are boundaries enforced for Rabbott?

    I hardly think a comment regarding a PBer’s observations is going to rock the world and it certainly wasn’t attacking Margie’s character.

  30. Dee
    Yes i am more than familiar with the rubbish Gillard and Tim faced (which is now known the world over) but i am not aware of any grounds that justify discussing the status of Tone and his better half.

  31. mexicanbeemer@289

    That Macedon pre-selection is an unnecessary mess consider the vacant seat of Pascoe Vale would be ideal for Mary-Ann Thomas

    So you have certain knowledge she would win a democratic pre-selection in Pascoe Vale?

    Where do you get such knowledge from? Are their no other candidates? Have you surveyed the local ALP members? Might it not just be a repeat of the Macedon travesty?

  32. I read the reports from businesses visited by Tony Abbott in his flourescent vests, linked by BK this morning (thank you for your daily links). It seems that many blame cost increases and setbacks resulting from the vagaries of being in business, including nornal inflation (2-3% per annum), currency fluctuations, globalisation, bad luck and possibly bad management, on the ‘Carbon Tax’. No doubt the Government will continue to encourage business people in this delusion.

    Somebody should ask Tony Abbott to sign a pledge ‘in blood’ about how much costs will come down should carbon pricing be abolished. The basis of comparison should be against what would have happened had we gone to an ETS on July 1. And he should also inform the voters how he will enforce this without what he would call massive red tape, because without such, power companies and upstream businesses will simply pocket any benefits when they can get away with it.

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