Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  3. I am still trying to recover my equilibrium after listening to Abetz dominating QandA with his nasal lecturing.

    Morrison and Abetz. What a classy pair 🙁

  4. “@latikambourke: Notice Scott Morrison never calls them ‘asylum seekers’ – he calls them ‘transferees’ or ‘people’ or ‘detainees’.”

  6. ABC news update just now – one person killed on Manus Island another shot in the buttocks and another in a serious condition being brought to Australia.

    Morrison apparently to comment later.

  9. “@MrDenmore: So can we assume that all those who cried that stopping the boats was about stopping the drownings are feeling sympathy for those on Manus?”

  12. Someone’s gotta say it, the truth that is, which is a rarity among the much confused and rusted on pinkie brigade here:

    Labor’s recent policy at election was Manus Is/PNG resettlement which was of course supported by all those here who voted Labor and wanted Rudd as PM (yes same Rudd they now all hate). Remember the ceremonial signing and the folder with half a page in it. Libs had other solutions but they kept this one anyway which was always dubious and not enthusiastically supported by Libs as it was by Labs.
    Previous Labor policy was sort of “open the gates and let most come and fill up centres and hotels” and plenty drowned on the way.
    Greens policy is/was/will always be “let ’em all drown”.

    Undoubtedly current Libs policy is most successful and most humane namely the much mocked “Stop the Boats”, so well done Libs.

  13. You know this is seriously bad for the LNP when Mick77 is back to defend the indefensible.

    Oh and Mick Australia is not responsible for drownings. It is responsible for this death and someone being shot.

  15. Detainees at Manus need to understand that resorting to violence isn’t going to lead to a good outcome for them – on the contrary it will only result in bad outcomes.

  17. guytaur
    There’s nothing to defend in LNP policy – it works. I just couldn’t believe the claptrap coming from posters here given their cheering for the PNG solution. And you’ve obviously already completed your investigation of the events at Manus Is and have concuded that we “Australia” (23m Ozzies) are responsible for a death. I’m sure that you concluded immediately the same with every drowning death under Labor-Greens. Remember: Manus Is/PNG resettlement is LABOR party policy.

  19. Well, as far as Manus is concerned, I wonder if it is a point Labor can have it both ways?

    While many hate the idea of warehousing AS anywhere but on good-old Oz soil, the fact that Rudd and Labor made great play of the Manus Island deal, has to be lived with.

    In addition, some here have claimed that the Lib’s claims of ‘success’ of their stop the boats gig, only works due to the outsourcing. So, what Labor did, the Libs are claiming credit for.

    Now, some here are into bleeding heart mode.

    Labor just can’t win on this issue.

    However, for one red-neck to pop out of the woodwork to gloat at this point in time, is about as tacky as it gets.

    The concept of a compassionate conservative lives only in the small recesses of said conservative’s head.

    The fact that we have a good and true Christian man with Morrison, only adds to the delusion.

    However, whether the bulk of Oz gives two hoots as to what happens in Manus is an interesting debate point.

    I would suggest, as long as this lot a out of sight and out of mind, is enough for most of Joe Public.

    The fact the the conservatives have recognised this and pandered to it should make us wonder about our self-delusion of the Oz “fair go”.

  20. [Detainees at Manus need to understand that resorting to violence isn’t going to lead to a good outcome for them – on the contrary it will only result in bad outcomes.
    ]

    I think that is the point you are missing there are no f@&king good outcomes.

  24. WWP

    Those at Manus who know they aren’t legitimate refugees have the choice of returning to their homeland.

    Violence will only worsen their personal situation.

  26. Tricot

    Labor did not have the secrecy. As such there is no way this would have escalated to this point.

    Labot would have acted. Just as we saw with the riot on Nauru. Labor changed course. Labor can be tough but Labor does understand what crosses the line between tough and inhumane.

    I say this as someone who opposed the PNG solution.

  28. They’re running a concentration camp.

    It’s pretty difficult to spin shooting asylum seekers and killing one of them. No amount of how our “brave boys” acted in an emergency etc. will do it. Who were these people? Serco employees? Or Morrison’s einsatzgruppen?

    Labor, while they were using Manus Island, would never have allowed conditions to sink to these levels, where people are being shot and others killed.

    We’ve had deliberate burning of hands, drownings, shootings and now deaths under Morrison’s watch, and all he can resort to is cheap jingoism.

    Indonesia is gone from our list of neighbourly friends and people are being killed.

    They were warned. They were warned.

  29. Rex

    Most are legitimate. Rudd knew this. This is why he proposed the resettlement be in PNG.

    He knew its the only way to appease the racists in Australia without violence to kill the political issue.

    Under Labor it may have worked. Not under LNP we have seen their negotiation skills on display with Indonesia.

  30. [ The fact the the conservatives have recognised this and pandered to it should make us wonder about our self-delusion of the Oz “fair go”. ]

    Now fair go! Surely it is clear that in the conservative mind, the “fair go” only applies to the “fair skinned”?

  31. Mick77

    I have never – as one of the most hacky of the Labor hacks here — said a word in support of the Manus/Nauru option, and I never will.

    I am still a supporter of the Malaysian solution, as a stepping stone to a truly regional approach.

    The Greens and the Liberals, through their faux concern about conditions in Malaysia (cough), left Labor little choice. They opted for a policy which would get through Parliament rather than one which they actually supported (and there’s plenty of on the record comments from the time to make it clear).

    With a minority government, these things were bound to happen. The surprising thing is that the Liberals only had that win – but, in their own way, the present Liberals are just as extreme and uncompromising as the Greens.

  33. [Those at Manus who know they aren’t legitimate refugees have the choice of returning to their homeland.]

    Unfortunately for those that are ‘legitimate’ refugees they face the prospect of living in a country whose citizens are openly hostile to them. What will people do if they are given impossible choices? Live in PNG or go back to where the fled from?

    Oh well, at least they aren’t in that hell hole known as Malaysia that the Coalition cried about.

  34. [ Indonesia is gone from our list of neighbourly friends and people are being killed. ]

    I find it disheartening that our “economic rationalist” conservatives are willing to burn the carefully built-up capital we had in our Indonesian relationship, for purely short-term political gain.

    I wonder how long before they bankrupt us diplomatically?

  38. zoomster

    Do not blame the Greens for sticking with their policy.

    The blame is all with the LNP for their hypocrisy.

    Including the Greens when you apportion blame like that lets the LNP off the hook for their gobsmacking political opportunism.

  41. [Those at Manus who know they aren’t legitimate refugees have the choice of returning to their homeland.
    ]

    Words escape me – I can’t believe anyone would post that.

  42. I am sure that on ABC news at 11am they said that seventy people are injured.

    Morrison just sent condolences to the family of the deceased.

    How on earth did we come to this.

  44. “@domknight: I don’t want to tell the AFP how to do its job, but if they’re raiding Seven they should definitely look inside those gold suitcases.”

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