Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. My past life experience tells me that if there is to be any advance on resolving the present situation on Manus Is. in favor of the detainees is that ‘disturbances’ must continue on a regular time scale. Is not advantageous to the detainees just to break fences ect, costly damage and events that make it to the news has to be done even if it means some deprivation of living standards. If the locals did attack the detainees that’s a big win. The locals can and will contact the news orgs at some time.

  2. But Abbott was going to save industry by removing the carbon price…..

    Only Abbott and the Libs believed the carbon price was a problem.

    Companies closing is not caused by poor management, poor future planning, over paid executives, falling prices, high Aust dollar, poor market analysis, lack of Government policy…..

    Its either unions or carbon tax, like an old vinyl record stuck in an ever repeating line

  3. [Abbott is negative oppositional bully … he defines truth as what is left when all is destroyed … he is pimp or protector (he thinks) for others (godfathers – murdoch pell howard)… strangely there is very little authority he respects – america, indonesia, china – seems at odds with all, perhaps because they aint impressed as easily as some at rooty hill ]

    I’ve been saying this for a while now. He makes himself and his policies look good by destroying everything and everyone else.

    What’s left over is “good” by default, because it’s all there is left. We have to make do.

    The media don’t care. They’re in some kind of pre-apocalyptic, end-of-days, nihilistic stupor, where they think making quips about how Tony broke the drought is clever, even original.

    Their own jobs are being destroyed. Their companies are folding. They cling to outdated business models. They hanker for the old days of printer’s ink and linotypes, now gone forever. Yet they lecture governments on how allegedly hopeless they are.

    When all you see around you are empty desks where once trained, professional colleagues used to work, it’s easy to think the whole world’s like that… and perhaps to want it to be like that.

    Combine the two – the wrecker and the already wrecked – and you get a heady symphony of fiddling as Rome burns.

    Manufacturing industry gone? Pffft… it’s only 30,000 jobs. Drop in the ocean really, say the overpaid remnants of a once energetic profession, left to do not much more than recycle press releases and find out what the agenda is today.

    Unions? Who needs ’em. They’re all crooks. Or at least that’s the theme this week. Never mind that the journalist’s union was one of the strongest and most rampant when it came to pay and conditions. It got them their fat salaries. So easy to forget.

    Climate Change? Nah… It’s just Teh Politics. A bit of to and fro, some argey bargey, a couple of flash appointments of anti climate science mates and it’ll go away. Even if it doesn’t, who cares? We can write up the looming catastrophe as it happens. Makes good copy.

    Whatever you do, never put anything down as a result of global warming. It’s the only ecological disaster in history that has no consequences. It doesn’t cause bushfires out of season, droughts, floods, cyclones or rising tides. Coming (and present) extinctions, coral bleaching, salination and future mass migrations of whole populations are all due to something else. Hey, shit happens. We should just sit back, check our salaries are in the bank each Thursday, and think of something else, like who’s up who, or whose staffer is a rorter, or whether the minister can survive. It’s all a bit of a giggle, actually. Let’s interview each other about it.

    Media Watch last night got it all right, right up to the bit where Paul Barry became all wistful about the lost days of newsprint. After doing their best to aid in their own destruction by playing groupthink, rent-a-quip journalists are wallowing in self-pity.

    Abbott sits back and is pleased with what he sees. He’s always been a destroyer, an anarchist. He doesn’t think too much about what comes after the wrecking is done. His responsibility ends with the building site cleared and ready for his mates to put up gerry-built monstrosities. He has an anger inside him that needs chaos to feed off. An aggression that is constantly urging him to king hit. An ego that requires not just the democratic removal of his enemies, but their destruction, their erasure from history.

    We’re living in a dream world. From being a nation in the forefront of social services, IT communications, health care, fairness in the workplace, cordial relations with its neighbours, economic prosperity and a fair go for all, we’re getting rid of it to satisfy Abbott’s urge for vindication and the media’s need for gotchas.

    These things were good. They got us somewhere. They got us to being one of the world’s most credit-worthy nations, one of its fairest, with the highest living standards… the envy of other countries, consistently highest on all the lists that meant something… lifestyle, living standards, egalitarianism, democratic freedom, rule of law, clean air, low stress and life expectancy.

    In exchange for this, Abbott is prepared to substitute ignorance, privilege, meanness, a dog-eat-dog mentality, envy between demographics and most of all, constant anger. Anger at unions, greenies, Indonesians, Muslims, old people, young people, anyone we can manipulate into being one-down, while we remain one-up. Wowserism rules!

    He’s taken a perfectly good little country and turned it on its head. Not for any reasons of policy (he didn’t have any), or process (there is none that anyone can detect), but simply because he enjoys taking a sledgehammer to a wall and knocking it down. He’s not right or left, really. He’s just The Wrecker. He revels in confusion and chaos.

    The media goes along with him because they’re finished anyway. May as well cling to the wreckage for a few months more and try to see it out to retirement, or a job in PR.

    In all this what annoys me the most is that the media continually lectures us, even whole governments, on how to lead our lives – morally, economically, financially and physically – while the lives they lead themselves, and the companies they work for, are so vapid, empty and soon to be (at least professionally) in ruins.

    They are the perfect companions for Abbott. Both only care for themselves, and only seek to survive intact to the end of the day, while continuously pinching themselves that they’ve been able to put it over so many, for so long.

  4. [Mr Morrison, who is visiting Darwin, said he would return to Canberra as soon as possible for briefings from the head of Operation Sovereign Borders Lieutenant-General Angus Campbell.]
    Scrot not have a telephone ,or is he afraid it is bugged ? 🙂

  5. Tax commissioner Jordan has already told BRW he won’t be “playing” games with big companies through the legal system and has vowed to take more companies deliberately dodging tax to court.

    The commissioner says he’s also working closely with overseas authorities to go after multinationals shifting profits into tax havens – and while Australia will not act in isolation – he’s reiterated that big players should expect the Australian Taxation Office to be much more aggressive with multinationals using complex tax structures.

    The ATO’s hit list for 2013-14 specifically mentions that over the coming year the tax authority will be targeting multinational businesses.
    ============================

    Going after the Liberal Parties biggest donors won’t will Jordon any friends in this Abboott Govt

  6. The Age today calls for Sen Nash to go…and just another scandal as they have got a clutch of right-wingers in her office
    The junk food and Booze lobbies are triumpant

    but who is surprised by that

  7. pom@1152

    My past life experience tells me that if there is to be any advance on resolving the present situation on Manus Is. in favor of the detainees is that ‘disturbances’ must continue on a regular time scale. Is not advantageous to the detainees just to break fences ect, costly damage and events that make it to the news has to be done even if it means some deprivation of living standards. If the locals did attack the detainees that’s a big win. The locals can and will contact the news orgs at some time.

    Maybe.

    Alternatively the AS may well find themselves charged under PNG law and in the PNG prison system where sadly few will bat an eyelid if they are killed/ bashed etc – by fellow prisoners etc.

    Just as sad is that in the current mood of Australian voters looks as if these incidents will improve abbott’s standing in the polls.

    In any case all he or morrison need to say is “there look at that – we don’t want these people in Australia”.

    If there is a WA Senate re-run all of this may even help abbott?

  8. [Tax commissioner Jordan has already told BRW he won’t be “playing” games with big companies through the legal system and has vowed to take more companies deliberately dodging tax to court. ]

    More of the regular ATO jawboning ?

    Murdoch is laughing his head off.

  9. “@chrismurphys: He’d nail up Jesus if he caught him on a refugee boat this Minister Scott Morrison. The parody of humanity called Christianity. #auspol”

  10. BB

    Yes, Abbott is a wrecker by instinct. That’s him.

    But he couldn’t do it unless he was being ‘enabled’ — and this is where the Liberal party as a whole deserves blame.

    Rudd wasn’t a wrecker so much as a perpetual Hamlet – yet the Labor party had the sense to see that that wasn’t a viable option. (You can afford to have Hamlet back on stage once the wheels have been set in motion and things are actually happening…)

  11. Since nuclear power has gotten a mention here lately, let my shaee my thoughts as an engineer and technology enthusiast.

    Firstly, I live nuclear power from a pure technoligy appreciation standpoint. And that especially applies to advanced concepts such as the molten salt design, where the fuel and coolant are one and the same and the design is inherently safe (no, nothing is absolutely unbreakable) and immune to meltdown.

    The problem with nuclear technology is its easy to over-enthuse. Especially if you’re close to the technology or come from a physics background. Its quite seductive. Witness Ziggy’s enthusiasm.

    Howver, nuclear power always comes at a cost premium and the reason isn’t always understood. Its not just the need for containment or the use of specialised metals. Its the process and quality assurance that gets expensive. Same reason why space hardware is expensive. All the paperwork, the testing and the multiple pairs of eyes going over each and every component, weld, nut and so on. Safety andcreliability has its price. Yes the aircraft manufacturingbindustry sees this too but they at least have volume.

    And as much as I like advanced concepts, each concept has its own technical or engineering issues. For instance the molten salt design has its own technical issues with keeping the fuel clean. In short any such design means a decade long (and expensive) effort to bring it to maturity.

    In reality to build one now(or any time before 2030) means using a refined water cooled design. We can build it to be a lot safer than Fukushima (that is a decadescold design) but even so you wouldn’t responsibly site one within 50km of a town.

    My take on this would be to go to a remote loation, mune a series of caverns and build a super power station with multiple cores. And put the cores (which are relatively small) underground. The point being is that when its decommissioned you simply seal the cores and spent fuel in place.

    Nevertheless, that would be expensive.

    Im not going to go into detail here but renewables are getting steadily cheaper and for the usual reasons. Maturity of technology and volume.

    I’m a big fan of geothermal. Hundreds of years of reliable, dispatchable energy. And thee’s a bunch of reasonscto be optimistic about wind, concentrating PV, solar updraft towers and so on. We do have a clean (and reasonably affordable) energy future.

    And Abbott and his merry bunch of vandals might stall progress but ultimately the basic economics will win over. Renewable systems don’t require multi GW scale and a decade long construction phase as is with nuclear.

    Nuclear has a future, but its in space.

  12. “@CliveFPalmer: This $880M windfall is the political dividend given to Rupert Murdoch for supporting Tony Abbott in the last federal election #auspol”

  13. Well beef producers being allowed to gradually increase exports to south korea over a 15 year period doesn’t look like much of a deal – compared to the destruction of the car industry – which looks like closing long before 2017 as sales vaporise.

    Did Hockey have KAFTA in mind when goading GMH to shut down ?

  14. I wil be incommunicado for the next two hours. I will miss the verdicts being handed down this morning.

    Hope Boerwar is around soon for his latest view on the Indonesian “situation”

  15. “@sarahinthesen8: The Manus island detention camp is untenable. Must be closed before more people are hurt.”

    I think even Centre may agree with SHY on this one.

  16. From all I have heard the Commissioner of Taxation is a very skilled operator – perhaps not dissimilar to the Honorable the PM of the Commonwealth of Australia. Big business are ”very encouraged” by what he has to say so far.

    What he does will be very interesting.

  17. guytaur

    [Cannot expect NZ people to know names of Australian places.]

    So they’re too dumb to read the first four lines of the piece before writing the headline? Surely not!

  18. guytaur@1184

    “@sarahinthesen8: The Manus island detention camp is untenable. Must be closed before more people are hurt.”

    I think even Centre may agree with SHY on this one.

    Not going to happen.

    Only way it will happen will be if PNG tells Australia to do so.

    Like it or not, voters support abbott on this and there is not much prospect of that changing atm.

    Like those who destroyed the infrastructure on Narua, Manus AS are cutting off their noses to spite their faces if they damage whatever facilities they have – and may find themselves left with tents etc.

  19. From transcript. Does not look good alright.

    [There were 13 serious injuries, there was one critical injury, and there is one person who is deceased. The deceased person involved a head injury and that person passed away on transfer
    There were no other reports that we’re aware of any gun shot wounds or certainly any other reports of a gun shots being fired or heard that we are aware of at this time. I also want to stress that the actions taken by our people there overnight showed a great deal of courage, showed a great deal of courage, showed a great deal of strength and a great deal of strength and a great deal of application]

  20. Scott Morrison on News24 now. There has been one fatality and some critical injuries resulting from disturbances on Manus Island.

    This is very serious and should not be politicised. An open enquiry is needed to get to the truth without fear or favor.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *