Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. Ian Rintoul on ABC News 24 alleges that latest troubles on Manus Island are a result of locals attacking asylum seekers, some of whom fled the detention centre for their own safety.

  2. How it was reported in Bloomberg

    [Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said Australia’s response to new spying allegations was “mind boggling,” as the New York Times reported a document leaked by U.S. whistle-blower Edward Snowden revealed monitoring of trade talks.]

    Where is our commentariat? If this was PMJG, it would be in the front page of all our papers

  3. [The Tasmanian Liberal Leader has admitted uncertainty over the National Broadband Network could cost his party the state election.

    Both Labor and the Liberals want the Federal Government to reverse its decision to use the existing copper network for some of its Tasmanian contracts.

    The Liberal leader Will Hodgman says he has been lobbying the Federal Minister Malcolm Turnbull.]

  4. Good Morning

    SHY was just on 24. She claims that she has reports from health workers that one of the AS has been shot.

    The secrecy is appalling and there is no justification for it as knowing what is happening does not help people smugglers as most here are aware of.

    While I hated Manus being set up I will give Labor this. Before this action would have been taken. Even if that meant shutting the whole thing down as Labor people do take the safety of people seriously.

    24 just announced as I type that they have some vision from the Sunday incident sent to them.

  5. [The Piping Shrike ‏@Piping_Shrike 27m
    If this government had guts, it would have sent Downer to Jakarta.]


    Imagine how bad things would be then!

  6. The latest Manus Isl incident does sound serious. At least, it was serious enough for the actual minister to get off his backside and release a statement.

  7. Morrison sent unaccompanied children to Manus.

    Appalling disgusting. Does not cover it.

    Also 24 reports they are hearing decision in Thomson case may be handed down today

  8. dave:

    That is why governments need to legislate in order to stop big tobacco. They will use any loopholes available to push their product.

  9. [I’m an agnostic on nuclear power, but I’m also a realist.]

    I’m still opposed to it. Its very economic birth relies on a sovereign guarantee. That is the risks, economically speaking are so great that you can’t justify it economically without returning to an age of entitlement where a whole industry relies on taxpayers taking the best no business would take.

    I wish I had taken notes at the time, but I was a councillor and quite involved in the party when some used car salesmen, I mean nuclear lobbyists did a tour of Australia in the Howard years. I don’t know what the industry paid them but they turned something that had no momentum and much public opposition into something many people took seriously a good idea. At the time I thought their main game was simply to open Australia up as a dump for their waste. I guess if we are stupid enough to invest in their IP and actually build one of these things it would be even more miraculous.

  10. [ It sounds like there was an attack by PNG police and locals carrying machetes.]

    I believe the PNG Police have a riot squad on Manus.

    They have a well deserved bad reputation – and PNG is the land of the payback. If the AS crossed them in earlier stuff the Police will not hold back or put up with too much crap.

  11. “@SamCD01: Two important decisions being announced at 11AM (AEDST), today. The WA Senate recount ruling, and Craig Thompson’s sentencing. #auspol”

  12. Yes! – looking less and less likely ?

    [ Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond disputed the argument of U.K. ministers that an independent Scotland would lose the pound, saying businesses in the rest of the U.K. would forbid something that drove up transaction costs.

    Salmond was responding to a series of attacks on the independence campaign over the last 10 days, including a speech from Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne on Feb. 13 ruling out currency union. European Commission President Jose Barroso said yesterday it would be “extremely difficult, if not impossible” for Scotland to join the European Union.

    Opponents of ending the 307-year-old U.K. argue that it carries a series of risks. Salmond responded today that such threats would be abandoned in the event of a “yes” vote in September’s referendum, to be replaced with negotiations based on “enlightened self-interest.” ]

  13. BK

    Things will not end well. This is the goon squad we have hired on Manus.

    [ Director of Human Rights Watch in Australia, Elaine Pearson, told Radio Australia’s Pacific Beat program there are serious questions surrounding the country’s paramilitary police units (Mobile Squads), which have been deployed to Australian-funded asylum seeker detention centres on Manus Island to assist with security issues.

    “The paramilitary mobile squad is particularly notorious for human rights abuses,” she said.

    “Human Rights Watch has documented how, in some cases, they have beaten and tortured some people who have been detained in their custody.]

  14. Brilliant tory move to repeal the Minerals Tax, just as the companies deductions are being used up and profits are coming along very nicely indeed –

    [ BHP First-Half Profit Gains 31% on Iron Ore, Lower Costs

    Underlying profit rose to $7.8 billion in the six months to Dec. 31, from $5.9 billion a year ago, the Melbourne-based company said today in a statement. That beat a median forecast of $6.9 billion of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. ]

  15. [ “The paramilitary mobile squad is particularly notorious for human rights abuses,” she said. ]

    Yep – they are officially referred to as “mobile squad” but everyone refers to them under their previous name “Riot Squad”.

    They are more feared than the outlaw Raskol Gangs.

  16. Handy to know – if one is up to no good –

    FFS –

    [ If Invading Switzerland, Please Do So Outside Of “Office Hours”

    When overnight we were following the Ethiopian Airline hijacking story, one thing that was missing from the Twitter narrative was the lack of any reports of scrambled Swiss fighter jets.

    As it turns out it wasn’t merely a journalistic oversight: there were, in fact, no fighter jets scrambled. Why? Because the hijacking which took place around 3 am, and culminated with the 767 landing in Geneva just after 6 am, took place outside of regular air force hours!

    …Switzerland cannot intervene because its airbases are closed at night and on the weekend,” he said, adding: “It’s a question of budget and staffing.

    … the Swiss airforce is only available during office hours. These are reported to be from 8am until noon, then 1:30 to 5pm.]

  17. victoria

    Another smelter closed when our Blood Oaf was LOTO and screaming “carbon tax did it” the smelter manager showed what a lie it was. He said the movement of the Australian dollar exchange rate by about 1 cent had as much effect on their position as the “carbon tax”

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