Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 22 of 29
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  1. Gas prices in NSW to rise by 20%
    _____________________________
    As the experts had foretold..gas will rise sarly in price as the producers clain that they can get better prices on the export market…and we shall all have to pay more

    what does Abbott make of this

  4. This comment beneath article caught my eye

    [DxD – I don’t blame the media. I blame the Australian people for not being able to see through Abbott’s lies and agenda. Once again he has proven that there are too many of us that are incapable of seeing through a propaganda scare campaign.
    Abbott and his team must have been sitting there a few months ago saying – “We’ve convinced them that boat people are the biggest threat to our country, then we convinced them that a 10% increase in power bills was the cause of the 30-40% increase in power costs and the entire reason the economy was slowed (nothing to do with a GFC), then convinced them that debt was a huge evil (even if our debt is about 5 – 10 times less than nearly every other western country), and all of these worked a treat, but now we need a new evil distraction….”
    And this month’s new evil is… [queue the horror movie music and evil laugh] THE UNIONS!!!]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/cards-falling-for-abbott-but-its-early-days-20140216-32tyb.html#ixzz2taEXRtOX

    Night all

  5. Cast your mind back to say, the mid-90s. You’re on your couch on a sunny but quickly fading Sunday afternoon in front of the television, flipping between the three or four channels for something, anything that looks a quarter-way interesting to you. There’s a low-scoring VFL match on some school’s oval in Boganville, a documentary on the mineral make-up of clay, a recording of some obscure Romanian opera and maybe an infomercial on a new treadmill or a re-run of Neighbours or Home & Away.

    Capture that feeling of utter tedium and boredom and you have the Australia Network. 24/7.

  9. Fran
    [Yes, but if I did that, we’d just be harder to identify.]
    Actually, I do know someone like that.

    They are definitely environmentalists. They have three 4wds, they drive *one* formed from bits of the other 2. They do have a river across their driveway, does that excuse it? Their “suburb” (maybe it’s more exurb?) is definitely green and leafy. In fact it’s hard to find bits that aren’t green and/or leafy! I’m pretty sure they had their own cow at one point too!

    Wow, they fit Mod’s profile perfectly!

  11. davidwh

    I’m not a fan of sport (playing or watching) and perhaps my bias shows. I’m sure there are people out there who just clamour to watch East Frankston vs North Coburg at 3pm on a Sunday afternoon, but myself, if forced to watch I would probably start cutting myself or just freely weeping out of boredom.

  12. DN

    Whereas in my case, I live in a non leafy suburb just west of Parramatta (though between 1991 and 2013 I lived in much leafier Epping, albeit before that I lived for five years in almost completely leafless Erskineville near St Peters.) I have an early 2000 Astra that rarely gets started these days as I take the train to work.

    I’ve never had a 4WD or even ridden in one or had a friend or work colleague who had one. I became a vegetarian in 1982 — well before I became engaged with the significance of climate as an issue in ecology.

    As stated, I have no in principle objection to nuclear power, though I strongly suspect that in Australia, a careful evaluation would not recommend its inclusion in the local energy mix — both on NPV grounds, and on schedule feasibility grounds. I’d be happy for these matters to be robustly examined — indeed, I believe they should be and if they were I’d be happy enough to support the findings, whatever they were.

  13. AT

    [There’s a low-scoring VFL match on some school’s oval in Boganville, a documentary on the mineral make-up of clay, a recording of some obscure Romanian opera and maybe an infomercial on a new treadmill or a re-run of Neighbours or Home & Away.]

    The dodo on the composition of clay would be clearly in front.

  15. Fran, I lived in Epping in the mid 90’s. It was nice and leafy yes and had the best fish and chips shop…..and the worst nightclub.

  16. O those wonderful old suburban footy grounds.

    Watching arch rivals like Coburg v Brunswick or Frankston v Dandenong.

    Sadly the AFL clubs don’t play on the old grounds like Windy Hill or Glenferrie Road

    I’m sure the make up of clay would be interesting but not for a Sunday arvo more suitable for late Sunday evening.

  17. SK

    [Fran, I lived in Epping in the mid 90′s. It was nice and leafy yes and had the best fish and chips shop…..and the worst nightclub.]

    Yes … The one in Bridge Rd near Beecroft Rd … And no The Epping Club really didn’t count as a nightclub.

  19. China-Japan relationship to get worse this year:
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/02/16/the-chinese-and-japanese-economies-are-delinking-prelude-to-conflict/

    “That said, however, non-business risk is now a big factor. “Political tension was the major reason for the slide in Japan’s investment in China last year,” said Yao Haitian of the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Yao predicts relations between the two countries will get worse this year.”

    And Abbott playing fire with Indonesia, PNG, Nauru, etc.

  20. It’s stretching my memory….was it called tracks nightclub? Terrible place. And the fish and chips shop I recal being opposite the station on beecroft. I only lived there for a year but it was a special time.

  21. Oh you’re thinking of the Epping Hotel. I found the one 50 yards south on Bridge Rd to be better — for chips anyway. Can’t comment on the fish.

  22. China Credit Bubble bursting:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/10642184/Gold-price-signals-China-credit-bubble-bursting-as-investors-seek-safety.html

    “Uncertainty is growing over China’s ability to sustain the rapid rates of economic growth it has seen over the past decade amid concern over high-levels of debt among its provincial governments. These concerns have helped to drive sharp falls across emerging markets since the beginning of the year. ”

    Stamp Duty, time to get rid of it in AU too:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/10641326/Stamp-duty-crisis-in-housing-market.html

    “Official figures this week are expected to show the average house price rose from £248,000 closer towards the £250,000 level at which the 3pc rate is introduced.”

  24. Good to see ISP’s coming out in force, of this ridicules notion:
    http://www.afr.com/p/technology/isps_against_brandis_ing_the_law_X18zToBykYlDa2UP9Qi5rO

    ““Why is [Senator] Brandis only looking at those stakeholders and only taking their input into account and reflecting that in his speech?” he said. “They know from their own personal experience in France, in New Zealand and in the UK that graduated response doesn’t work . . . so why are we going down a failed path in Australia?””

    The problem is it costs the providers, not the Music/Movie Industry money.

  25. A fascinating insight into the North Korean theocracy on Four Corners tonight.

    I was especially touched by the 22-year-old woman who was the last of her immediate family to leave the North recounting their succesful reunion in the South. Her eyes lit up when describing their first meal together.

    Also heartening to see the penetration of the modern world into North Korea and the hunger the residents obviously have for it.

    And the risks people take to get information in and out if the “D”PRK are simply jaw-dropping. I think they’re truly courageous people.

    Anyway, a good watch. I try to read and view everything I can on NK and I had not seen this so yeah, it gets my praise for holding my interest. Not too much old ground covered.

  26. [http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-raw-prawn-marty-natalegawa-takes-swipe-at-tony-abbott-over-prawn-spying-claim-20140217-32wgq.html]

    You know, i cant help but think that the best way to repair the Aust / Indonesian relationship is for Abbott to just STFU. 🙁

  27. abbott is negative oppositional bully … he define truth as what is left when all is destroyed … he is pimp or protector (he thinks) for others (godfathers – murdoch pell howard)… strangely there is very little authority he respects – america, indonesia, china – seems at odds with all, perhaps because they aint impressed as easily as some at rooty hill

  28. pur212
    Posted Sunday, February 16, 2014 at 9:38 pm | PERMALINK
    I believe the ALP’s 4 point drop in the Nielsen poll is 100% due to the recent changes to the act interpretations act … Or some other thing I’ll just randomly make up in order to sell a newspaper …

    In all seriousness, I suspect we’ll see a small comeback from the Coalition in the short term due to them being far better at playing the language game than Shorten who is completely hopeless at it

    —-shorten is almost as bad as that ex leader recent minister who names slip – how on earth did he get up on a leadership contest – any grey insipid as yarra on overcast day (sorry melbournians there is lots wrong with sydn)

  30. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Fancy having Downer as “our man in London”. More vindictiveness from this government pulling Rann out early.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labors-man-an-alsoran-as-downer-heads-for-london-20140217-32wfh.html
    Marty Natalagawa inserts the wedge.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-raw-prawn-marty-natalegawa-takes-swipe-at-tony-abbott-over-prawn-spying-claim-20140217-32wgq.html
    Bloody carbon tax!!!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/17/gas-prices-in-new-south-wales-set-to-rise-more-than-20-this-year
    Now why would this be, Tone?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-frustrated-at-lack-of-progress-in-code-of-conduct-talks-with-indonesia-20140217-32uyp.html
    Fiona Nash has a lot still to answer for.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/staffer-alastair-furnival-had-links-to-alcohol-industry-helped-strip-funding-from-group-minimising-alcohol-harm-20140217-32w0q.html
    It seems to be a Liberal thing!
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/coalition-water-consultants-peter-coombes-and-simon-want-given-top-jobs-in-the-office-of-living-victoria-20140217-32wfc.html
    From the Royal Commission hearing into child abuse, this time sitting in Queensland.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/17/school-did-not-inform-police-of-alleged-abuse-for-more-than-year-inquiry-told
    One can largely blame the wall of silence and indignation for Australians widely holding this view.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/twothirds-of-voters-believe-there-should-be-an-inquiry-into-allegations-the-navy-deliberately-burnt-the-hands-of-asylum-seekers-a-fairfaxnielsen-poll-finds-20140217-32wfo.html
    And Michael Gordon follows up on this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/demonising-and-secrecy-must-stop-mr-abbott-20140217-32wfw.html
    What a deliberately empty comment from Abbott when visiting Queensland. ‘‘As the seasons have changed, climatic variation has been a constant here in Australia,’’ he said.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-downplays-role-of-climate-change-in-current-drought-20140217-32vub.html

  31. Section 2 . . .

    Lenore Taylor takes a good swipe at him on the matter.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/17/tony-abbott-leaves-climate-change-out
    This is the sort of bloke that Sinodinis want to give more freedom to!!!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/legal-threat-over-lost-life-savings-against-adelaide-accountant-george-nowak-at-charterhill-group/story-fni6uma6-1226829862579
    John Kerry puts the pressure on our Luddite PM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-can-no-longer-turn-his-back-on-this-weapon-of-mass-destruction-20140217-32w3l.html
    Alan Moir tells Hockey to get over it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Andrew Dyson highlights Abbott’s education curriculum intentions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    David Rowe with another swipe at Morriscum.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Cathy Wilcox on different views of Snowden.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Ron Tandberg. Abbott’s job creation program.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  32. BK

    [ ‘‘As the seasons have changed, climatic variation has been a constant here in Australia,’’]
    Straight from the Ray Hadley book of wisdom. During the big heat wave it was we were informed just a seasonal variation thing .

  34. And from the Land of the Free –

    How do you fancy this for a landing?
    http://americablog.com/2014/02/nasty-turbulent-landing-shows-jet-can-take-video.html
    You have to laugh!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/reality-tv-snake-handling-pastor-jamie
    Poor Chris Christie. It isn’t looking too good for him.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/17/1278228/-More-smoke-bellows-from-the-remains-of-Planet-Christie
    Here’s “The Young Turks'” take on Christie.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017176137

  35. News that should please those sick of W.A. pollies claiming they prop up Australia. Grim times for CUB’a is a coming.

    [Boom advantages squandered by myopic governments

    Well may the Premier be sorry for job losses, but it is about time he manned up and admitted the role his governments have played in worsening what is going to be a very black time for Sandgropers…..

    If we are to believe the government spin delivered to State Parliament on August 8 last year when the Treasurer delivered the budget, the WA economy is in a transition period……Sadly for the state there is nothing to transition to

    Successive governments frittered the boom proceeds away on inner-city beauty projects when they could have used these windfalls for a serious industrial restructuring of our economy…….

    But none of WA’s governments did that, and that window of opportunity is now closed]

    http://www.watoday.com.au/comment/boom-advantages-squandered-by-myopic-governments-20140215-32s9e.html#ixzz2tc0SdpRO

  38. CTar1

    A bit short of breweries in W.A. but the mining boom meant we have heaps of cashed up bogans.
    I see some master criminals have struck in Canberra.

    [ Australian police launch appeal after ‘not very smart’ thieves steal worthless two-tonne rock

    Rock Garden chairman Brad Pillans described the theft as both “disappointing” and “silly”, because it would likely cost the thieves more to have the rock crushed than the resale price of the gold it contains.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australian-police-launch-appeal-after-not-very-smart-thieves-steal-worthless-twotonne-rock-9133933.html

  39. Poroti quoted philosopher king to the recklessly stupid and proud of it, Ray Hadley …

    [‘‘As the seasons have changed, climatic variation has been a constant here in Australia,’’]

    If that claim actually means anything that is falsifiable, I doubt Hadley knows what it is.

  40. Poroti

    [Rock Garden chairman Brad Pillans described the theft as both “disappointing” and “silly”, because it would likely cost the thieves more to have the rock crushed than the resale price of the gold it contains.]

    So in net terms, good for the economy then? 😉

  41. CTar1

    [Michael Kirby kicking arse on North Korea.]

    I’m a great admirer of Michael Kirby. He is a man of great intellect, erudition and humanity, and of impeccable integrity. He seems wasted speaking of how dreadful the DPRK regime is. This is the softest political whipping boy on the planet. I’ll bet even Stephen Fielding could probably get it about right on them.

  42. poroti

    [A bit short of breweries in W.A.]

    I remember having a Swan Bitter at a pub right next to the Shakespeare Theatrae on the South bank of the Thames.

    It didn’t taste any better there.

  46. CTar1

    [NZ not too bad at Cricket at the moment.]

    Australia has Mitch and NZ has BMac …

    His reconstruction of his career has, rather like Mitch’s, been nothing short of stunning.

  48. A response to some of the follow up comments on my post about the lack of enthusiasm (outside armchair experts) for nuclear —

    1. Howard was identified as a politician who is pro nuclear (I should have clarified: I did mean ones actually in power). Another poster said the argument wasn’t compelling (which missed the point I was making).

    Howard was Prime Minister for a considerable time. At one stage, he was in the very rare position of basically being able to do anything he wanted to. That he did nothing to establish a nuclear power industry in this time (despite pursuing a number of policies he knew were politically unpopular) shows that it wasn’t high order with him.

    Similarly, what the lack of pro nuclear politicians tells us is that (as I pointed out) no one real is lobbying for nuclear power. If they were, there’d be at least one current politician out there advocating for it (even if it were from one of the fringe parties).

    Look at the range of policies which get support from MPs, despite some of them being considered politically unpopular.

    2. If no one is lobbying for nuclear power, it’s because no one with the time, expertise and money is interested. So the question of whether or not nuclear power is an option becomes moot. Governments don’t bother with the issue because they know no one is interested in developing it.

    Finally —

    [The idea that we can’t do nuclear here when so much of the rest of the world has been doing it for decades is a little patronising to Australians, don’t you think?]

    Well, no. Because I didn’t say we couldn’t do nuclear here. There’s a difference between the ability to do something and the will to do it.

    I’m an agnostic on nuclear power, but I’m also a realist.

    (Oh, and ModLib, you seem to have missed the numerous times I’ve listed – and I know others have, too- the steps they’ve taken to reduce their emissions).

  49. A response to some of the follow up comments on my post about the lack of enthusiasm (outside armchair experts) for nuclear —

    1. Howard was identified as a politician who is pro nuclear (I should have clarified: I did mean ones actually in power). Another poster said the argument wasn’t compelling (which missed the point I was making).

    Howard was Prime Minister for a considerable time. At one stage, he was in the very rare position of basically being able to do anything he wanted to. That he did nothing to establish a nuclear power industry in this time (despite pursuing a number of policies he knew were politically unpopular) shows that it wasn’t high order with him.

    Similarly, what the lack of pro nuclear politicians tells us is that (as I pointed out) no one real is lobbying for nuclear power. If they were, there’d be at least one current politician out there advocating for it (even if it were from one of the fringe parties).

    Look at the range of policies which get support from MPs, despite some of them being considered politically unpopular.

    2. If no one is lobbying for nuclear power, it’s because no one with the time, expertise and money is interested. So the question of whether or not nuclear power is an option becomes moot. Governments don’t bother with the issue because they know no one is interested in developing it.

    Finally —

    [The idea that we can’t do nuclear here when so much of the rest of the world has been doing it for decades is a little patronising to Australians, don’t you think?]

    Well, no. Because I didn’t say we couldn’t do nuclear here. There’s a difference between the ability to do something and the will to do it.

    I’m an agnostic on nuclear power, but I’m also a realist.

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