Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [DisplayName
    Posted Monday, February 17, 2014 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod, for someone who claims to be rust free, you sure are adhering tightly to the tired, old, hackneyed lines of the anti climate science industry!]

    I am not anti climate. I am anti-hysteria and anti-hypocrisy.

  2. Absolute Twaddle

    [I agree that the anti-nuclear stance of many environmentalists is astounding. And based on about as much thought as anti-vaccers and 9/11 truthers.]

    Speaking as a Green who has no in principle objection to nuclear power …

    This is an exercise in misdirection into which (unwisely in my view) my party, and indeed perhaps most who put significant priority on ecosystem integrity have wandered. The reality is that our views are simply ignored on this, as they are ion much less expensive areas of policy. The main obstacle to nuclear power are not opponents of nuclear energy but all those who want the cheapest possible energy infrastructure, regardless of the Tragedy of the Commons that such policy entails. Coal was and will remain greatly cheaper than nuclear for at least some decades, this side of a very substantial carbon price, which, you will be aware, their advocates have fought tooth and nail.

    It would be much easier for most people to see that if we Greens simply said “let’s have a technology-neutral best-fit approach to decarbonisation of energy infrastructure” but this side of most people making decarbonisation their top infrastructure priority, it wouldn’t change energy policy in this or any other country.

  3. Zoomster

    Parts of Central Australia have a lot of water, hot artesian water which i believe can be used to generate electricity. Trouble is that it is a long way from the customers.

  8. Night.

    Why is Australian politics such an exercise in depressing valueless oneupmanship?

    I believe it is because neither the ALP, and certainly not the LNP, have any commitment to “Australia”, whether that is to them.

    Maybe Australia is a “brand” that they have discarded.

    They see everything ought their corporate managerial eyes.

    The LNP and most MPs of the ALP are just Corporate whores.

  10. Everything

    [I trust the youth of Australia to see through brain washing! ]

    And this fits under the heading of vacuous bluster. Exactly how would I use your offering to ‘brainwash’ anyone?

  13. Fran:

    I don’t want you brainwashing those poor little kids with the right wing nut job bleatings from people like me.

    Just keep feeding them the ultra leftish we should all eat turnip stew and all be on the same salary stuff. Without that kinda stuff from the likes of you, voters wouldn’t turn right over time.

  14. Fran, you might convince someone that environmentalists aren’t 4wd driving, beef chewing hypocrites who live in green, leafy suburbs!

  16. I wish (as do most people I would imagine) that fusion power was just around the corner.

    Apart from the obvious potential solution to our energy issues, I’d be fascinated to see how the fossil fuel vested interests would respond to the development of a fusion power industry, and how that would interact with conservative/reactionary politics.

  17. Jackol #1004

    Clearly, you havent met Tim Wilson.

    One more time. Someone whose only qualifications for the job were that he’s a professional climate denier and opponent of action to restrict tobacco advertising. If Brandis had bothered with interviews he couldnt have been given one.

    There are some right wingers who would have been way more qualified but then of course there weren’t interviews … .

  18. AA
    Mod thinks Abbott is a disaster, but not in a hysterical fashion like the people here mind you, but in a completely sensible, rational way!

  20. As a conservative/reactionary, I am all for fusion*. Couldn’t care less what it does to the fossil fuel industry….life moves on.

    *Some of my favourite dishes actually.

    Good night all! Be nice to each other. 😉

  21. zoidlord:

    You don’t get humour, do you? I have noticed that before too!

    You have a good night as well, and dream of your next come-back :devil:

  25. MM – I agree the appointment process was terrible.

    However, having heard Tim Wilson talking about what principles he thinks should apply, I have to say I agree with a lot of his fundamental philosophy. Of course I disagree with him on the significance of the “Bolt Laws”, and on his obvious conservative tendencies, and I think he is naive to consider abuse by government as the only role for human rights watchdogs or human rights law – abuse by corporations that have power that meets or exceeds that of national governments has to be included.

    But he is a smart guy who tries to think clearly about human rights issues and has a philosophical basis for his views. He’s not a random conservative idiot.

  28. Everything

    [I don’t want you brainwashing those poor little kids with the right wing nut job bleatings from people like me.]

    I’d be citing your text as a collection of strawmen fallacies rather than as RW nut-job bleatings. I’d be saying … Here’s what some person has said on a blog site. How many purely rhetorical claims can you find? Which of them beg the question or are strawmen?

    [Just keep feeding them the ultra leftish we should all eat turnip stew and all be on the same salary stuff. Without that kinda stuff from the likes of you, voters wouldn’t turn right over time.]

    And again here, I’d be asking them to evaluate your text for its resort to rhetorical devices.

  30. Simon Katich

    Saw this on twitter and thought it was apt

    [Arguing with mod lib is like playing chess with a pigeon; it’s going to shit on the board and strut around like it won anyway]

  31. Tony has replaced the Nanny State with the Corporate State
    I should get my daughter to take PR / lobbying at Uni … it’s a growth industry now

  33. DN

    [Fran, you might convince someone that environmentalists aren’t 4wd driving, beef chewing hypocrites who live in green, leafy suburbs!]

    Yes, but if I did that, we’d just be harder to identify. 🙂

    FTR, while I find hypocrisy to be ethically odious, it is often advanced as misdirection — a self-serving cheap shot aimed merely at directing attention away from more significant issues in a debate.

    Often the charge is unwarranted or in practice dubious.

  35. Victoria, 1030 – ha ha, very good! I agree, but argument does offer good name calling opportunities and chances at vampire references. Same with TISME, I recall making reference to his preference of drinking blood once (I was accused first of drinking Chardonnay. I mean, CHARDONNAY!!!)

  36. [Miranda Devine ‏@mirandadevine 2h
    Heather Ridout is such a sanctimonious self-regarding know-it-all]

    And yes, it is the genuine Ms Devine.

  37. Re Tim Wilson
    ____________
    he seems tio me to be what they call in America.. a Libertarian

    I think he genuinely believes in..(.a view I share)…free speech and few restrictions on same…and I agree that it was a bad policy in the attempt to prevent speech that may hurt or offend some one … that a right I have

    If I want to say that Scientology is nutty as are those who who espouse it…I think that that is my right..and if they take offence well bad luck

    I think this is Wilson’s view too

  40. RBA selling house:
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/rba-cashes-in-on-sydney-property-boom-with-kirribilli-mansion-sale-20140217-32vdf.html

    “The Reserve Bank bought Eversley, at 10 Carabella Street, in 1986, according to a city council document. The tenants of one of the apartments gave notice of their plans to vacate in mid-2013, according to documents released in December under a Freedom of Information request. The central bank also owns a training college in Kirribilli.”

    Fire sale under way.

  46. When I lived in Hong Kong I would occasionally watch the Australia Network or whatever it’s called (it was hidden away somewhere in the 100-or-so channels on my cable subscription). Aside from the news it was godawful… I hope that since 2004 the programming has improved.

  48. @davidwh/1044

    That’s called proper business management, and not putting all your ball’s into one basket.

    Like this government is doing.

  50. I could let the Latte jibe pass, but not Chardonnay. Clearly they dont realise how good the local Riesling has been lately, and the small brewery beers…..

    I am off to reluctantly read about the debate.

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