Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. A great blooper from the SMH web site:

    Nor was he entitled to use union funds in any capacity once he had left the union and was working as a feral MP.

    Mar’in Ferguson always said he was a member of a feral government.

  2. [ Madoff got 150 years for corporate crime

    Legal experts says he is unlikely to serve the full sentence. ]

    What a coincidence – Medical experts say the same!

  3. [Well we do have strong legislation and common law in relation to corporate governance probably as good as found anywhere in the world]

    If we are the best you wouldn’t want to see the worst.

  4. Thomson can of course appeal. Maybe he can do another fundraiser where he can explain why he did not contest the facts asserted against him.

    His appeal cannot traverse, realistically, those facts which he did not contest.

  5. I hope everyone realises the Victorian police quietly dropped their investigation into Kathy Jackson last Friday – nothing wrong, nothing to see, move along folks….
    [VICTORIA Police has dropped an investigation into Health Services Union whistleblower Kathy Jackson over more than $100,000 paid to her and her former husband, and wages paid to the children of her new partner.

    Detective Gary Jenkins confirmed to The Australian yesterday that Victoria’s fraud squad had conducted a “thorough investigation” into allegations raised by the HSU’s national office that the payments had not been properly accounted for. “There were no criminal offences detected,” he said.

    It brings to a close an attempt to link Ms Jackson to an alleged web of corruption after she alerted police to evidence that resulted in charges against former Labor MP and union official Craig Thomson and a conviction against former HSU boss and ALP federal president Michael Williamson.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/hsu-cites-civil-option-as-police-close-jackson-case/story-fn59noo3-1226826521281#

  6. Hello all on this great day for justice, with the final conviction of Craig Thomson for his crimes. May all who have done similarly be similarly convicted. Better late than never. Let us hope for an appropriate length stay in a correctional facility, though I doubt his attitude is correctible.

    Those who can recall this man’s tearful denial a few years back, and claims he was set up, will share my sentiments. I recall a few on this blog saying he deserved the benefit of the “doubt”.

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