The first Newspoll of the year has caused Labor to take a knock on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, helped along a little by a softer result from Morgan. Newspoll has also driven up the Greens, whose breakthrough into double figures softens a shift from Labor to Coalition on the primary vote to a 0.8% movement on two-party preferred. That translates into a solid six-point change on the seat projection, which is now back to hung parliament territory. Taking into account Labor’s still solid lead on the two-party result, this demonstrates the height of the bar the BludgerTrack model sets for Labor in making it to an absolute majority, mostly on account of sophomore surge effects in the decisive marginal seats. On the state breakdowns, the Coalition recovers one seat each in Victoria and Tasmania and four in Queensland. The latter is down to the publication of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland from yesterday’s Courier-Mail, which I have thus far failed to comment on. The poll of 800 respondents showed the Coalition with a 52-48 lead – a swing of 5% to Labor from the election, and 4% on the previous such poll in November – from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down five on the November poll), 33% for Labor (up three), 7% for the Greens (steady), 4% for Katter’s Australian Party (up one) and 11% for the Palmer United Party (up three). It was evident that BludgerTrack had wandered off the reservation for a while there so far as its Queensland projection was concerned, and the addition of this substantial new data point from a high-quality pollster has returned it to where it probably should have been all along.
There are also two new results to feed into the leadership ratings, one being the regular findings from Newspoll and the other the monthly result from Essential Research. Both have landed in exactly the same place after bias adjustments were added, and the effect has been to maintain the downward momentum for Bill Shorten that emerged when the last numbers were added from Essential Research a month ago. Tony Abbott on the other hand has been in a gentler pattern of decline after the steep fall that followed the Coalition’s polling slip in November, and has a stable lead of slightly below double figures as preferred prime minister. Some good analysis of the leadership ratings is available at the bottom of this post by Kevin Bonham, who previously noted that Shorten’s early ratings were on the mediocre side for a leader new to the job, and now finds similarities with Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean at comparable stages of the game.
As always, full results on the sidebar.
Bring on the next El Nino. Teach the peasants to Vote 1 Climate Change is Crap
Centre:
Absolutely agree re the ETS.
confessions
[He can’t even tell rural communities what he’s going to specifically do for them,]
Why should they get any different shit than the rest of us are getting ? Time and time again we hear “We have a plan that will return Australia to prosperity” . What is the plan ? Feck knows and don’t expect the media lizards to ask.
MTBW
[How on earth did we all end up with this lot?]
Ask Rupert and Gina the Hutt.
Australia is run by cargo cultists.
poroti:
😆
Good point. He’s ruralising his 5 point plan from last year.
poroti
Agree with you but gee whiz does he have any self awareness at all?
Playing one group of people off against another like a game of favourites.
Disgusting!
psyclaw@1547
I saw those but I don’t respond to everything and I was preparing to go offline by that stage.
Did you read my post @1447 where I quoted extensively from John Silvester whose article MTBW had previously linked to?
I reckon that is the best article I have read in the MSM on the topic.
You stated: “First, no-one can predict whether someone will commit a crime regardless of whether or not they are mentally ill.”
That sounds awfully like a cop out I have read about coroners using.
There are situations where a mentally ill person is showing a propensity for violence and is not receiving treatment or is non-compliant with treatment. In such situations, you cannot predict exactly what will happen or exactly when. But you can say they represent an unacceptable risk unless action is taken. This is one such case, but by no means the worst I know of.
[Australia plans to buy seven giant unmanned drones for $3 billion, potentially to help patrol its borders, a report said on Saturday.
The unmanned aircraft, with the wingspan of a 737 passenger jet, would primarily be used by the military for spotting enemy ships and planes in a conflict.
But they could also be deployed to detect illegal fishermen and asylum-seekers, who frequently enter Australian waters on rickety boats, usually setting sail from Indonesia and Sri Lanka, The Australian newspaper said.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/21484084/australia-plans-for-drones-to-patrol-borders-report/
Are these really necessary? It seems like such a lot of money for something that on the surface looks like overkill.
@Confessions/1559
Because war never changes with this bunch.
confessions
Unless the Drones are armed satellites can do the job. Might even be cheaper
MTBW
[Agree with you but gee whiz does he have any self awareness at all? ]
In a word . NO . He has had older mentors to clear the path for him his whole life. Be it dad, Fr Costello , Santamaria, Antico, Howard or Murdoch. After such a run why would “The Golden Child” be anything different to the way he is ?
Guytaur @ 1548, yes it is important.
If only Labor would listen to me 😈
It seems the farmers want to go back to exceptional circumstances funding, where one farm gets subsidies but the one in the next paddock misses out.
A system they hated and wanted removed.
The only way to save many of these farm businesses is to treat them as 3rd world countries and write off their debts. I doubt this will happen.
So how does Abbott solve a problem of $26,000 income and $700,000 debt? (the averages in Qld) The answer is he cannot, he will pretend to do something while doing nothing.
The farmers will eventually look to a 3rd party to support their interests and will be let down again.
ABC News
Updated Tue 4 Sep 2012, 2:00pm AEST
The Australian Defence Force is quietly resurrecting plans to buy seven huge intelligence and surveillance drones that could cost up to $3 billion.
The unmanned aerial vehicles will be used for maritime surveillance and intercepting asylum seeker boats.
@TheAviator1992: As seen on a billboard in Bourke Street Mall, Melbourne! #AusPol #ValentinesDay http://t.co/B4aVl3YvNd
confessions, show us yer cost benefit analysis!
guytaur:
Boerwar will no doubt offer his views on this planned purchase. I’m happy to defer to his knowledge of defence procurement.
DN:
If the boats have stopped, why do we need drones to keep track of them?
poroti
[After such a run why would “The Golden Child” be anything different to the way he is ]
As you say I guess when you are regarded as “special” you just expect to be always that way.
And while I am at it how did Abbott not know of the Nash situation in advance.
He must have a tin ear!
AA
Yes but where are they going to take the people on boats once they’ve been intercepted?
Back to Indonesia?
Does Abbott want us to go to war with Indonesia?
The GG should sack Abbott immediately for not respecting the sovereignty of another country.
Long Range Maritime Survelliance Capability is vital to protecting our national interests. Even without the Country Shopper Boats the Titon would be a very good investment – complimentary to the P-8, JORN and Wedgetail capabilities.
The 3 Hobart Class destroyers cost $8 billion, why not dump the drones and build another one, save some money and have an asset worth something, that will be built in Australia.
AussieAchmed@1565
I thought it was something that had been around for quite a while.
So it got dropped and has now returned. I was unaware it ever stopped being considered.
Our maritime reconnaissance P-3 Orions must be getting a bit old so maybe these are a possible replacement for at least some purposes.
Ratsars
Yes agree
BTW Just told on twitter SBS lead story was Indonesia talking to Kerry about Australia and the huge March in Sydney against Medicare changes. Was it reported on the other channels???
And what do you need to justify dramatically increased defence spending???
Mmmmmmm……
TPP News:
http://www.choice.com.au/reviews-and-tests/money/shopping-and-legal/legal/trans-pacific-partnership-secretly-trading-away-rights.aspx
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/02/obama-pushes-tpp-despite-mounting-opposition
http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/02/11/america-s-tpp-debacle-leaves-hamlet-without-prince/h0pi
TPP shit just about to get real.
guytaur @1561 – stop showing your ignorance.
[Long Range Maritime Survelliance Capability is vital to protecting our national interests.]
Why?
bemused @1574 the Boeing P-8 has already been se;lected to replace the P-3’s and Tritonhas been developed to wrok with the P-8’s.
The humidity here in the north west of Sydney is about as bad as it can get, raining cloudy and I’m sweating – bloody carbon tax!
Crank
It was a question. You do not learn if you do not ask. Knowing you do not know everything is the beginning of wisdom.
ruawake – If you haven’t noiced we are an Island Continent relying on Maritime Approaches for trade, communications and if any baddies want to do us over they have to come across the seas. As much as it guts and Army person to say so – control of our Maritime Approaches is the highest strategic interest Australia has and that’s why navy and Airforce get the lions share of capital projects funding and Army is an afterthought.
@CC/1583
So another myth just to spend $3 billion on big toys?
[ Are these really necessary? It seems like such a lot of money for something that on the surface looks like overkill. ]
Never mind ‘Fess – abbott will turn them on his own people in due course.
Gutaur @1582 – I miseed any question mark in your @1561.
Satelittes have a role but are also limited in applications and capabilities.
Ahhaa Abbott stepping up Australia’s military capacity.
So he does want a war?
Zoidy @1583 Myth? Do you know something every White Paper and Defence Planner since 1788 has missed?
[ruawake – If you haven’t noiced we are an Island Continent relying on Maritime Approaches for trade, communications and if any baddies want to do us over they have to come across the seas. ]
So what has this got to do with a drone that can add nothing. Except it feels good. Build another Destroyers so it can er Destroy the threat, not take picture of it.
@CC/1586
Obviously you haven’t read up the latest on satellites?
e.g.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-13/satellite-imaging-startups-skybox-planet-labs-race-to-cover-earth
Crank
Drones have limitations too.
It would be cheaper to stay friendly with Indonesia and not have the Chinese Navy patrolling our maritime approaches,
@CC/1588
Well if Liberals and USA stop going into wars, and stop bankrupting countries, then perhaps they might have I might find the time to read everything back to 1788.
What’s this about the Chinese Navy?
Bemused –
[I thought it was something that had been around for quite a while.
So it got dropped and has now returned. I was unaware it ever stopped being considered. ]
IIRC the tories said they were not able to ‘adequately assess’ such a purchase from opposition.
Sounded at the time to me anyway that it was more a budget consideration.
dave:
It feels like the little boys got control of the piggy bank and are busting a gut buying up their favourite boy toys just because they can.
This is the worst government I’ve ever seen.
People smugglers should circle our waters and head to New Zealand.
Then go bang, a sharp turn straight to the coast line of the Aust mainland 😯
[BEIJING – China and the United States, the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases, pledged on Saturday to work together to attenuate the effects of global climate change]
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-02/15/content_17284911.htm
Compact Crank
[we are an Island Continent relying on Maritime Approaches for trade,]
Which means your kiddie speak “baddies” just have to close our sea lanes. Indonesia are well on the way to being able to do so.
[China will pass the United States to become the largest market for Boeing Co before the end of this decade, a senior executive of the US airplane manufacturer said on Friday.]
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014-02/15/content_17284512.htm
[People smugglers should circle our waters and head to New Zealand.]
They are waiting to get enuf orange boats from Scot.