Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The first Newspoll for the year is slightly at the low end of Labor’s recent average, and shows a lot of the air going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon approval ratings.

UPDATE (Essential Research and Morgan): Essential Research is still at 50-50, although Labor has been up three points on the primary vote over the past fortnight, the most recent move being one point to 39%. The Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady at 43%, 8% and 3%. There are also personal ratings and further questions which you can read about at the bottom of the post. Morgan has the Labor lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52.5-47.5 to 51-49 on previous election preferences. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40.5%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens down one to 10.5% and Palmer United up 1.5% to 4.5%.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the final poll of last year, which was conducted from December 6-8. Labor has dropped three points on the primary vote to 35%, but the slack is taken up by the Greens, who are up three to 12%, with the Coalition up by one point to 41%. The results also support Essential Research’s finding that a good deal of air went out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon balloon over the break, his approval rating down five points to 35%. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J in comments serves up the personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott perfectly unchanged at 40% approval and 45% disapproval, Bill Shorten respectively down nine to 35% and up eight to 35%, and preferred prime minister effectively unchanged at 41-33 in favour of Abbott, compared with 41-34 last time.

UPDATE 2: Dennis Shanahan’s report on the results for The Oz.

UPDATE 3: Questions on ABC bias produce similar results to the recent ReachTEL poll, with most considering its news “fair and balanced”, but Coalition supporters more likely to feel aggrieved than Labor ones. Eighteen per cent felt the ABC biased to Labor versus 7% biased against, which naturally enough produced a mirror image when the question was framed in terms of Coalition bias (7% biased in favour, 19% biased against). Results for the Greens were hardly different than for Labor, with 15% thinking it biased in favour, 8% biased against, and 48% balanced. Tables showing breakdowns by party support here.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings have both leaders heading south, with Tony Abbott down six on approval to 41% and up four on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten down five to 30% and up two to 34%. Better prime minister is little changed at 40-30 in favour of Abbott, compared with 42-31 a month ago. As is usually the case when a party’s position improves in the polls, Labor has improved across the board on the question of party most trusted to handle various issues, the biggest changes being a drop in the deficit on “political leadership” from 23% to 13% and economic management from 26% to 19%. A question on various types of industry assistance finds strong support for drought relief, private health rebates and tourism development grants, but strong opposition to fuel rebates for the mining industry. Interestingly, automotive production subsidies score a net rating of minus 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,892 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Cadburygate

    From ABC website following question from Penny Wong in the Senate on Tuesday
    Fiona Nash….
    “There is no connection whatsoever between my chief of staff and the company Australian Public Affairs,” Senator Nash said.

    From the Guardian today ….

    Nash also conceded that Furnival had not declared any conflict of interest at a meeting of federal, state and New Zealand ministers on December 13, which Nash chaired and Furnival attended, and which voted to approve the healthy food rating scheme.

    “Yes, I can confirm it was an item on the agenda. Yes, I can confirm that I was chairing the meeting. Yes, I can confirm that my chief of staff did not declare an interest.

    “I was fully aware of the relationship between my chief of staff, APA and his previous role within Cadbury and the confectionery industry … my chief of staff complies with proper internal standards under the statement of standards for ministerial staff,” Nash said under a sustained opposition attack during Senate question time.

    Fiona Nash has misled Parliament… big time!

  2. An old un, but a good un …

    No amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.

    Aneurin Bevan

  3. [Contrary to earlier reports that farmers may seek as much as $7 billion in assistance, the cost of the NFF’s package would like to be “less than a billion”, he said.]

    When the unions [used] to do it, it was called an ‘ambit claim’ and was the subject of much derision and scorn from the media et al.
    From wiki
    “In negotiation, an ambit claim is an extravagant initial demand made in expectation of an eventual counter-offer and compromise”

    The difference is that here the farmers are not negotiating except with themselves [Barnaby and the COALition being their elected parliamentary reps].

  4. [poroti

    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    Easy up on the condemnation. Richard Court’s bro was the head of a farmers mob in W.A. during the wharfies dispute. He and his organisation came out in support of the wharfies. So much so there were t-shirts on the picket line showing solidarity between the wharfies and the farmers.]

    Ease up on the condemnation Poroti. Did you read my second paragraph? And remember it is still the same NFF proposing the current support for farmers that tried to break the unions.

  5. victoria

    If I’m correct Fiona will follow, there is also talk that Furnival was given position by PMs office.
    They will both be thrown under the bus

  6. Rossmore@1804

    An old un, but a good un …

    No amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.

    Aneurin Bevan

    Aneurin Bevan’s book “In Place of Fear” is one of my treasured possessions.

  7. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-12/fiona-nash-backtracks-chief-of-staff-lobby-group/5255878

    4 items of interest, at a minimum, in this article.
    1.Confirmation of ruawake’s comment above.
    2 Confirmation that Nash is in deep shit – or should be
    3.From Penny Wong [in part answer to Victoria above]
    “When and how did the Minister realise she had misled the Senate?” Senator Wong asked.”
    Note the key word ‘misled’.
    4.No specifics re so-called ministerial code.

    Nash has gotta go.

    Oh and BTW, Joe’s comments and Toyota’s response deserve some heavy traction also.

    Really, they are a grubby lot.

  8. [As per ru’s posf, it would appear that Nash is not going anywhere]

    Of course not. None of those affected by travel rorts lost their jobs, or suffered any career backlash as a result of it.

  9. A Truly alarming story from” The American Conservative”
    AMust read >>>>>>>>>
    _______________
    Protestant fundamentalists have made a major infiltration into the US armed forces and their training Academies and are seeking to influence many in the forces to the ideas of a Holy War with Islam

    Truly crazy as this seems to any sane person,this story is one of those “only in America ” type stories,but deeply alarming and a testimony to the power of mad religious ideas in the USA..they seek an Old Testament army

    Philip Giraldi it’s author..is .a former CIA operative,and no leftist

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/old-testament-army/

  10. I think shorten and Wong should hold a press conference and call on Abbott to dismiss Nash from her ministry and the party.

    There is no chance but the libs look weaker if they then let cos be fallguy. And they look worse of all if they don’t sack anyone and don’t reactivate the website. They should have done that already, although it is an admission of guilt, guilt is already obvious.

  11. fredex

    The federal government cannot go bankrupt, if all other fiscal measures fail the government can print the money to pay although that in theory will create an inflation problem.

    Furthermore apparently a large chunk of the government’s debt is owed to the people of Australia.

    This of course doesn’t end the need to run a sustainable budget as the consequences to the economy are pretty bad if government doesn’t at least look to be paying down its debt levels.

  12. Labor is also bulletproof against ‘overreacting’ to anything. If a journalist ever puts that to them the brilliant retort writes itself.

  13. Obviously something Ms Nash’s husband did? is more important than Closing the Gap difficulties and what’s wrong and what might be going right with indigenous issues …

  14. prettyone@1825

    Obviously something Ms Nash’s husband did? is more important than Closing the Gap difficulties and what’s wrong and what might be going right with indigenous issues …

    Only Tories think ethics are “relative”.

  15. Ah i see who kathy Dennis is now

    [PM also obtained an email showing the Health Department bureaucrat who was leading the development of the food-labelling policy has had it taken from her control.

    In an email update to stakeholders today, assistant secretary Kathy Dennis wrote that there has been a “restructure” in the department.

    She says she will no longer lead the Front-of-Pack Labelling Secretariat after two years in the role.]

  16. Interesting comments on Toyota leaving here:

    Why Toyota is leaving Australia: The real story
    [There are three main reasons why Toyota is exiting Australia and a series of smaller, but still significant, ones. The first reason is so-called ‘free trade’ agreements. Politicians rarely mention in any commentary on this. Yet this had more of an effect on Japanese executives in Nagoya than anything else.

    The Japanese cannot understand why we keep signing ‘free trade’ agreements that are not free trade agreements at all. John Howard signed the Thailand free trade agreement, which allowed free entry of Thai motor parts into Australia but whacked huge tariffs and other restrictions on exports of Australian motor parts and cars into Thailand. We were conned.]

    [The second reason has been well documented: the high Australian dollar. There is no doubt the Japanese would never have invested in Australia had they known the dollar was to rise in the wake if the mining investment boom. However, while it ranks the number two reason, without so many other factors the high Australian dollar could have been overcome.]

  17. [Obviously something Ms Nash’s husband did? is more important than Closing the Gap difficulties and what’s wrong and what might be going right with indigenous issues …
    ]

    Yes because we know Abbott is all about opening the gap not closing it, will stop anything that is going right and put in place racist patronizing and stupid policies like attendance targets and truancy officers no matter what he says. So no point addressing the transparently dishonest And stupid policy.

  18. Victoria
    Kathy Dennis …
    PM also obtained an email showing the Health Department bureaucrat who was leading the development of the food-labelling policy has had it taken from her control.

    In an email update to stakeholders today, assistant secretary Kathy Dennis wrote that there has been a “restructure” in the department.

    She says she will no longer lead the Front-of-Pack Labelling Secretariat after two years in the role.

    The secretariat is being made a separate unit from her Healthy Living and Food Policy Branch, and will be led by first assistant secretary Nathan Smyth….

    The Libs have already rearranged the deck chairs on Fiona’s Titanic, they won’t save her

  19. From the article I cited above:
    [Labor senator John Faulkner, who established the code of conduct for ministerial staff, led debate on the matter after Question Time ended in the Senate.

    “Clause 4 of the code reads that ministerial staff must divest themselves or relinquish control of interests in any private company or business and/or direct interest in any public company involved in the area of their minister’s portfolio responsibilities,” he said.

    “Mr Deputy President, this just was not done.”]

    Nash is in deep deep stuff.

  20. milenko

    As per my earlier post, I went back and reread the ABC report, and realised who Kathy Dennis was.

    Thanks.

    No doubt the fibs are rearranging the deck chairs to save Nash’s backside

  21. “Only Tories think ethics are “relative”

    I’m not sure what a Tory is actually, it’s not an Australian term?

    This prime minister seems to really care about the state of our indigenous peoples – Warren Mundine, Adam Goodes – well let’s hope their input can be meaningful.

    I’m not convinced but everything is worth a shot.

  22. [PM also obtained an email showing the Health Department bureaucrat who was leading the development of the food-labelling policy has had it taken from her control.]

    Remember that Jane Halton is still Secretary of Health.

  23. Sorry Mexicanbeemer my response to your comment was a bit facetious and not meant to be critical.

    I am aware that [as you wrote] “The federal government cannot go bankrupt, if all other fiscal measures fail the government can print the money to pay”, most of the public don’t seem to know that, although the next part of your statementis a bit problematical “in theory will create an inflation problem.” when that theory has never been substantiated by empirical evidence.
    Rather the contrary in that no direct relationship between deficit and inflation has been demonstrated in Australia or any other country since Noah was a lad.
    Just asserted.
    So your last sentence “…. the consequences to the economy are pretty bad if government doesn’t at least look to be paying down its debt levels” is, I presume, a purely political opinion and not economic.
    After all, in certain conditions, such as those in Australia at the moment [low and declining private investment, high and rising un/underemployment, declining participation rate, underutilised productive capacity] running a deficit budget should be a positive for the economy.

  24. ptrettyone

    Seems is the operative word in your post. The actions of cuts tell the real story.

    So much for your attempted distraction from discussion of Nashgate

  25. Question: Will Labor voters vote down a referendum on adding/completing the wording of the Constitution to acknowledge the original inhabitants – or vote it down simply because a conservative leader has inititiatd it?

    Honest question, guys, as you are Labor/Greens supporters?

    What do you think might be the result of a proposed referendum?

  26. Given that it took the election of a Labor Govt for the people to say Sorry I reckon Labor will support changes to the Constitution that are mature, responsible and fair minded.

    I doubt Abbott could achieve those measures.

  27. confessions

    I saw most of the painful QT today and Abbott, Hockey, Pyne, the Bishops and others, are utterly shameless.
    Labor need to get ruthless was this mob, and not give them any quarter

  28. This prime minister seems to really care about the state of our indigenous peoples –

    yep and stripping millions from ALS was a prime example of his real care.

    Lying about spending his first week as PM in a Community was another example.

    Claiming thousands in taxpayer funded expenses when he “volunteered” yet another example how it is all about Abbott and his bank balance and not about the people

  29. victoria

    Labor should move a no confidence in the speaker. When the LNP use their numbers walk out en masse.

    MSM will not be able to ignore that.

  30. victoria

    do you think shorten is quick thinking enough – can he think on his feet literally – he seems hesitant awkward public speaker to do as you ask … ???

  31. guytaur:

    Actually, given parliamentary muck-ups invariably reflect poorly on the govt of the day, maybe that’s just what the doctor ordered.

  32. “@TimWattsMP: Libs moving to shut down Parliamentary debate on 1000s of job losses in Gove. With no legislation to debate. On Close the Gap day #shame”

  33. guytaur

    Today the coalition shut down the debate and Labor retaliated. They need to keep it up at every opportunity. The pressure needs to be maintained on the coalition, and it needs to be relentless.

    On that note night all

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