Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The first Newspoll for the year is slightly at the low end of Labor’s recent average, and shows a lot of the air going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon approval ratings.

UPDATE (Essential Research and Morgan): Essential Research is still at 50-50, although Labor has been up three points on the primary vote over the past fortnight, the most recent move being one point to 39%. The Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady at 43%, 8% and 3%. There are also personal ratings and further questions which you can read about at the bottom of the post. Morgan has the Labor lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52.5-47.5 to 51-49 on previous election preferences. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40.5%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens down one to 10.5% and Palmer United up 1.5% to 4.5%.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the final poll of last year, which was conducted from December 6-8. Labor has dropped three points on the primary vote to 35%, but the slack is taken up by the Greens, who are up three to 12%, with the Coalition up by one point to 41%. The results also support Essential Research’s finding that a good deal of air went out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon balloon over the break, his approval rating down five points to 35%. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J in comments serves up the personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott perfectly unchanged at 40% approval and 45% disapproval, Bill Shorten respectively down nine to 35% and up eight to 35%, and preferred prime minister effectively unchanged at 41-33 in favour of Abbott, compared with 41-34 last time.

UPDATE 2: Dennis Shanahan’s report on the results for The Oz.

UPDATE 3: Questions on ABC bias produce similar results to the recent ReachTEL poll, with most considering its news “fair and balanced”, but Coalition supporters more likely to feel aggrieved than Labor ones. Eighteen per cent felt the ABC biased to Labor versus 7% biased against, which naturally enough produced a mirror image when the question was framed in terms of Coalition bias (7% biased in favour, 19% biased against). Results for the Greens were hardly different than for Labor, with 15% thinking it biased in favour, 8% biased against, and 48% balanced. Tables showing breakdowns by party support here.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings have both leaders heading south, with Tony Abbott down six on approval to 41% and up four on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten down five to 30% and up two to 34%. Better prime minister is little changed at 40-30 in favour of Abbott, compared with 42-31 a month ago. As is usually the case when a party’s position improves in the polls, Labor has improved across the board on the question of party most trusted to handle various issues, the biggest changes being a drop in the deficit on “political leadership” from 23% to 13% and economic management from 26% to 19%. A question on various types of industry assistance finds strong support for drought relief, private health rebates and tourism development grants, but strong opposition to fuel rebates for the mining industry. Interestingly, automotive production subsidies score a net rating of minus 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,892 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 38
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  2. If the age of entitlement is really over then yes I strongly disagree with drought assistance for farmers. I would support a half dole payment – no help with loans – it is supposed to be a business for goodness sake.

  4. ross, from this article.

    [“Yes, I can confirm it was an item on the agenda. Yes, I can confirm that I was chairing the meeting. Yes, I can confirm that my chief of staff did not declare an interest.

    “I was fully aware of the relationship between my chief of staff, APA and his previous role within Cadbury and the confectionery industry … my chief of staff complies with proper internal standards under the statement of standards for ministerial staff,” Nash said under a sustained opposition attack during Senate question time.]

    It’s possible I’ve mixed up the context or something, I’ve only been skimming this stuff.

  6. ross

    [You used to get the sack for being incompetent. Both parties have form in that area.]

    Now you just get tossed in a reshuffle if you are incompetent and don’t have enough factional support.

  10. Mmmm….I thought Nash said she was aware of Furnival’s previous position but steps had been taken to prevent a conflict of interest. (now she claims she wasn’t aware?)

    [On Wednesday, Senator Nash told a torrid Senate question time that Mr Furnival did not have a conflict of interest because he was not earning money from his shares, had resigned his position and was not involved in the running of Australian Public Affairs.
    “My chief of staff took proper and appropriate steps to prevent any conflict of interest … by withdrawing from
    any work for APA and on that basis there is no conflict of interest at that meeting,” she said.]

  11. [Nick Varvaris the Liberal MP for Barton just voted with Labor to stop a Liberal Dan Tehan from speaking.

    Oh dear. Surely a mistake?]

    Surely he can recognise his own colleagues?

  12. Display name

    I think her problem is that she told the senate the COS now had no links to the company which was now run but his wife, he having resigned as chairman.
    She later found out he was still a shareholder and went into the house and corrected her previous statement.
    Unless someone can prove that when she made the first statement she was lying …

    I am not sticking up for her,the whole business stinks. But I reckon she will tough it out unless someone can prove what she had been told before the first statement to the senate.

  15. Labor seem to be giving Pyne a taste of his own medicine, calling quorums, suspending ssos, no longer heards, etc.

    Pyne is running around like a chook with its head and one leg chopped off and the whips don’t even know who the new members are. Shambles.

  17. Nash
    At the time of the decision to scrap the health code:

    “I was fully aware of the relationship between my chief of staff, APA and his previous role within Cadbury and the confectionery industry”

    Note:
    ‘fully aware’

    Later, in parliament:
    ” There is no connection, whatsoever, between my chief of staff and the company Australian Public Affairs,”

    Note:
    ‘no connection”

    Even later, again in Parliament –
    “revealing…her staffer continues to hold shares in the company. ..”

  18. [1575
    confessions
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 3:40 pm | PERMALINK
    shellbell:
    Any news on the WA Senate vote ruling?]

    Nothing yet

  19. A bit of a feel of PN, Pyne getting his own back.

    [Mr Broadbent, 5:23:47 PM
    Quorum called, Mr Hayes, 5:34:04 PM; Quorum formed, 5:36:26 PM
    Mr Broadbent, 5:36:35 PM, Ms Rowland, 5:43:53 PM, Mr Tehan, 6:03:57 PM
    Quorum called, Mr Hayes, 6:06:34 PM; Quorum formed, 6:10:29 PM
    Mr Tehan, 6:10:33 PM, Point of order, Mr A. S. Burke, 6:11:15 PM, Mr Tehan, 6:11:22 PM
    Closure of Member
    Mr A. S. Burke, 6:11:51 PM moved That the Member be no longer heard.
    Question put.
    {Div No. 73}, 6:12:09 PM to 6:23:19 PM, Ayes 52, Noes 83
    Debate continued.
    Mr Tehan, 6:23:28 PM, Point of order, Mr Pyne, 6:23:43 PM
    Mr Pyne (Leader of the House), 6:23:49 PM moved That Mr Tehan be granted an extension of time by 10 minutes.
    Question put and passed.
    Mr Tehan, 6:24:11 PM
    Quorum called, Mr Hayes, 6:28:06 PM; Quorum formed, 6:30:36 PM
    Mr Tehan, 6:30:39 PM, Ms Plibersek, 6:34:22 PM, Mrs Griggs, 6:49:43 PM
    Quorum called, Mr Hayes, 6:51:24 PM; Quorum formed, 6:54:22 PM
    Mrs Griggs, 6:54:29 PM
    Mr Hayes, 6:56:16 PM moved that the Member be no longer heard.
    {Div No. 74}, 6:56:29 PM to]

  20. Great article on closure of car companies in an unexpected place.

    Australia drifts toward third world as manufacturing dies

    I have had similar thoughts to the proposed solution at the end of the article.
    [So now that the remaining three car manufacturers have committed to shutting their plants is there anything that can be done? Well yes but it would take the sort of cojones that Australian governments of whatever persuasion have not had since WW2.

    Back then, our government was discussing with GM and Ford a grand plan to produce an Australian-made car, a plan that eventually came to fruition in 1948 with the first Holden. Perhaps in some parallel alternative universe our government could take the billion or so it was going to offer GM and Ford to keep their factories open here and instead of using it for redundancy payments and useless retraining programs it could throw in some more money, buy up the existing plants, keep the design and manufacturing expertise painstakingly built up over 65 years in our wonderful country, which produced the inventor of rack and pinion steering, and create a truly Australian car maker that can later be floated on the ASX.

    If all that sounds too radical for those of you who don’t have a problem with our government spending $40 billion on a fibre optic broadband network, then please go back to eBay and put in a bid to buy a phone with Flappy Birds still installed.]

  21. It would appear that at least three times in recent weeks, the Australian navy and also the customs service has detained Indonesian and other foreign citizens traveling on boats heading for Christmas Island, a territory under Australian sovereignty. They were people intending to claim refugee status on arrival on Australian territory, which is a right guaranteed under international law. From reports in the Australian press, the initial detentions either took place on the high seas or in Australian waters.

    http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/02/12/is-australian-government-engaging-piracy.html

  22. Rupert’s Problems
    _________________
    A photo of Murdoch stuck in the grand piano would have been a rare treasure
    I think I could quite like Wendi Deng if she gave him a shove
    and abused him…better though is she had pushed him out of a window

  23. [Nick Varvaris the Liberal MP for Barton just voted with Labor to stop a Liberal Dan Tehan from speaking.]

    Perhaps he just wanted to go home early.

  26. Jon Stuart just showed a clip of Al Jazeera US’s coverage of the French president’s visit to the US. He stopped it going “Whoah whoah . We gotta stop as they are dangerously close to covering the visit in depth. This is how we cover it in the US.” . Cue a montage of Daily Telegraph, Today Tonight style clips from the US MSM.

  27. They were people intending to claim refugee status on arrival on Australian territory, which is a right guaranteed under international law. From reports in the Australian press, the initial detentions either took place on the high seas or in Australian waters.
    ===============================================

    Does International Law still apply when we are at WAR!!!????

    All those unarmed desperate men women and children in leaky wooden boats must be attacked and stopped by the might of the RAN

  34. Poroti re Wendi
    ________
    I like anyone who would push Murdoch into a piano..or better still out of a window…better still from the 10th floor

    I think she is what the chinese call “A Tiger Mother ”

    I know all,about that…I have one for a daughter-in-law

  36. THERE may be a silver lining to the shutdown of the vehicle industry — a fall in the price of imported cars.

    But the Government’s going to take its time making a decision.

    In order to ‘milk’ as much revenue as they can from people

  38. Hockey is a sick joke!

    If the age of entitlement is truly over, then farmers should not receive one zack of assistance.

    If farmers are struggling to make a living…SELL…and move closer where you can get a real job and earn an income for themselves, which will hopefully include a good version of workchoices to boot.

  39. “From my perspective, the sooner we get out of running businesses the better,” said Mr. Hockey.

    What? No knowledge and skills to run a profitable business?

  40. Bemused thanks for that article, as I’ve previously written there is something serious amiss that a car loving country is unable to make cars, it would be like the French stopped making cheese.

    Watching the American business media and the comment was made about the American economy that a strong auto industry was a key indicator of a strong American economy.

    I am very much a free market person but even in a free market Government needs to work with business to maximise opportunities otherwise the economy will stall and unemployment and prices will fall.

    This is a sad poor excuse of a government.

  41. AA

    Surely Hockey isn’t that simple to not know that for business to grow it needs to create partnerships and this is where governments can contribute, its not about giving blank cheques with no strings but rather government setting the framework to create growth and opportunities.

    Often business only needs clear policy direction and it will look after itself but this government is giving it nothing.

  42. According to News Ltd if Schappelle Corby gets paid for an interview the proceeds could be confiscated.

    I think she did it, but really, if someone is dumb enough to pay her to lie about her innocence then let her keep the bloody money.

    On another issue, if someone tried to smuggle 4 kilograms of weed into Australia how much time would they get?

  43. K17 @ 1650

    LOL

    Check out the mismatch?

    How the hell could Rupe expect that thing to stick around with him.

    Quite a few were cheering for someone to cark it, but none other than jockey W.Deng who had to be called in by the Stewards for excessive use of the whip 😆

  45. Howard sold around $70 billion in assets.

    Hockey plans to sell $130 billion.

    Proof Liberals don’t know how to build and invest in the Australian future – only the future of their donors.

  47. The $130 Billion is misleading as much of it is state government assets and some of it while potentially sellable shouldn’t be sold due to either the business or issues within the business.

  48. Bemused
    Yes. It could be done but I think time would be too short to bring together the necessary consensus. Our submission to the Productivity Commission touched on it.
    Gotta zip now – a CFS management committee meeting beckons.

  49. Just another thing on QT today.

    Has there ever been a speaker that intentionally aims to belittle and humiliate opposition members with retorts?

    I’ve never seen it!

  50. mexicanbeemer

    [while potentially sellable shouldn’t be sold due to either the business or issues within the business]
    And ya reckon the barbarian Libs state or Fed would give a flying fcuk about that ?

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