Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The first Newspoll for the year is slightly at the low end of Labor’s recent average, and shows a lot of the air going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon approval ratings.

UPDATE (Essential Research and Morgan): Essential Research is still at 50-50, although Labor has been up three points on the primary vote over the past fortnight, the most recent move being one point to 39%. The Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady at 43%, 8% and 3%. There are also personal ratings and further questions which you can read about at the bottom of the post. Morgan has the Labor lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52.5-47.5 to 51-49 on previous election preferences. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 40.5%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens down one to 10.5% and Palmer United up 1.5% to 4.5%.

GhostWhoVotes reports the first Newspoll for the year has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the final poll of last year, which was conducted from December 6-8. Labor has dropped three points on the primary vote to 35%, but the slack is taken up by the Greens, who are up three to 12%, with the Coalition up by one point to 41%. The results also support Essential Research’s finding that a good deal of air went out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon balloon over the break, his approval rating down five points to 35%. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J in comments serves up the personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott perfectly unchanged at 40% approval and 45% disapproval, Bill Shorten respectively down nine to 35% and up eight to 35%, and preferred prime minister effectively unchanged at 41-33 in favour of Abbott, compared with 41-34 last time.

UPDATE 2: Dennis Shanahan’s report on the results for The Oz.

UPDATE 3: Questions on ABC bias produce similar results to the recent ReachTEL poll, with most considering its news “fair and balanced”, but Coalition supporters more likely to feel aggrieved than Labor ones. Eighteen per cent felt the ABC biased to Labor versus 7% biased against, which naturally enough produced a mirror image when the question was framed in terms of Coalition bias (7% biased in favour, 19% biased against). Results for the Greens were hardly different than for Labor, with 15% thinking it biased in favour, 8% biased against, and 48% balanced. Tables showing breakdowns by party support here.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings have both leaders heading south, with Tony Abbott down six on approval to 41% and up four on disapproval to 47%, and Bill Shorten down five to 30% and up two to 34%. Better prime minister is little changed at 40-30 in favour of Abbott, compared with 42-31 a month ago. As is usually the case when a party’s position improves in the polls, Labor has improved across the board on the question of party most trusted to handle various issues, the biggest changes being a drop in the deficit on “political leadership” from 23% to 13% and economic management from 26% to 19%. A question on various types of industry assistance finds strong support for drought relief, private health rebates and tourism development grants, but strong opposition to fuel rebates for the mining industry. Interestingly, automotive production subsidies score a net rating of minus 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,892 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Interestingly, SF, James Hanson — a hate figure these days for the US right, was appointed by Reagan. He said that he’d have voted against Gore if McCain had been the candidate in 2001.

  2. What about all the workers at Toyota, don’t you think they have a right to know what took place between their employer and Hockey?

    What about all the car component businesses around the country, don’t you think they have a right to hear the opposition’s side of the story on the issue?

    A disgrace, a double standard disgrace that the opposition were gagged in QT today.

    Abbott had plenty to say in opposition and was given time to speak BUT it’s a different story when he is in government.

    Too much effing secrecy with this government and now they gag the opposition.

    Hey I thought this was Australia we lived in?

  3. Poroti

    [The straight-faced reply from the PM’s office]

    Sometimes, the form letter is an insult. In this case it is absolutely perfect, and indeed, very funny into the bargain.

  4. Centre
    Posted Wednesday, February 12, 2014 at 3:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Poroti

    yo-byo-tay

    I want the sport and racing and Foxtel can get fuakced!

    I’ve ditched foxtel.

    I will be watching AFL games via the AFL app and I believe the races are available via the TAB app.

  5. centre

    Check out internet offerings. I have mentioned Fetch TV before. There is also Bigpond. Their live site lets you access Foxfooty for AFL. Other sports channels as well.

    The Bigpond Pond includes a racing channel.

    Worth checking out.

  6. [Last Night’s 4 Corners program on the torture of children by the Israelis on the West Bank
    ____________
    http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/02/10/3939266.htm%5D

    abbott’s response will be interesting – my guess “who are you going to trust, towel-headed kids who might one day try to enter illegally by boat, ABC pinkos, or the army of a country that we let get away with whatever illegal occupation of land and discrimination against the owners of that land they want because the US does too? I choose to believe the army”

  7. “@SenatorSiewert: My motion condemning the shark cull & calling for its exemption under the EPBC Act to be revoked is being voted on in about 30 mins.”

  8. I laughed out loud when I read that Senator Nash’s COS had no role in running the lobbying company that he was once chairman of but now belonged to his wife. That really was stretching it.
    And of course now she has to admit that he still has in interest in it.
    I guess like all good Tories she will tough it out and be treated sympathetically by the MSM.
    She really should have been sacked on Monday, and now she should be sacked today.

  9. 1563”’Sustain ….

    Re torture of kids by Israel

    Of course Abbott has Julie Bishop who sucked up to the Israeli occupiers and asked “who said the settlements are illegal”(the answer to that dumb question is the Geneva Convemtion and the UN)

    but with sycophants like Bishop we stand shamed as a nation…and how the jreodh lobby must have laughed with delight at so silly a remark
    she is like some others …their prisoner ..like a doll in the hands of skilled puppet=masters

  10. There is an excellent article by Sainsbury in today’s Crikey.

    If what Abbott the warmonger is doing domestically doesn’t frighten you, then what Abbott the warmonger is doing with Abe the warmonger ought to be generating some sleepless nights.

    But not a peep from the Oz MSM.

  11. Fran – I doubt hansen would’ve been appointed by reagan had he been noisy about global warming before his appointment. Still, it is interesting that appointments of someone in such a postion were once made on scientific merit and not politics. imagine who abbott will appoint as chief scientist (although he may just abolish the role because science is some pinko, Enlightenment conspiracy – and opus dei is effectively the same inquisition that silenced Galileo). My bet is Ian Plimer will get the gig if George Pell is too busy.

  12. That our society’s future seems to now hang on Clive Palmer’s whim and fancy makes me very nervous indeed.

    Better than Abbott having full control of the Senate, I guess, but only marginally.

    I will be the first to congratulate Clive if he does in fact use his Senate power in a sane decent manner.

  13. REX – When you ditched foxtel, did they try to offer you the “poverty package” to keep you on the hook.
    Unfortunately, you can’t also tear up your telstra cable, which means you won’t even get fraudband

  14. shellbell

    That news about the rain is very bad news for the Nationals.

    While 86% of Australians might be for support for drought-stricken farmers, a much lower proportion are going to be for support for farmers and banks who speculated on farm land prices using easy money.

    The average debt per farm has gone from $700,000 to $2 million. The total value of Australian farms is in the order of $120 billion and the total debt is in the order of $70 billion.

    Most of that $70 billion was borrowed by farmers not to deal with drought but to buy more land and machinery.

    The farmers want $7 billion of taxpayers’ money to fix a small proportion of the debt-crazed farm sector to underpin farm land prices in order to put some sort of threshold under the debt/equity ratios and foreclosure triggers.

    This drought has been one of the shortest in Australian history – 18 months – and yet it is supposed to be a major crisis for the whole pastoral industry.

    This is the same pastoral industry that has endured ten year droughts in the past and survived them.

    There is a giant con game being played by farming organisations, the Nationals and the banks.

    The $7 billion they are after could have kept all three major car manufacturers in Australia for another couple of decades.

    Will the punters fall for it?

  15. boer – for a moment there I read your comment as ‘warm-monger’ for abbott? both war- and warm- work for him as a prefix, but maybe ‘mongrel’ is the better suffix?.

  16. debloney

    “but with sycophants like Bishop we stand shamed as a nation…and how the jreodh lobby must have laughed with delight at so silly a remark
    she is like some others …their prisoner ..like a doll in the hands of skilled puppet=masters”

    Ah yes, the good ol’ Jews as puppet masters meme. Otherwise known as ZOG. How depressing.

    What next, blood libel? Poisoning wells?

  17. What would happen if Labor members simply refused to stop talking, or refused to leave the House? Presumably Bishop would have to get the police to eject them?

    Are we getting to that point with the ridiculous levels of bias in the HOR?

    If the government won’t play by the rules, why should anyone else?

  18. [Ah yes, the good ol’ Jews as puppet masters meme.]
    You are doing the exact thing being discussed, effectively accusing anyone who criticises Israel of being an anti-semite.

  19. Patrick Bateman

    As good as that might sound, the mob with the numbers makes the rules. If you don have rules you have anarchy …. Hang on, theres

  20. [As good as that might sound, the mob with the numbers makes the rules.]
    I think that’s called “mob rule” aka “no rules”.

  21. REX – I had foxtel for one glorious week over the last Olympics (my partner insisted upon it). Then the day after the Olympics I cancelled (ah, the joy). The guy got very snakey and offered me all sorts of incentives.
    They obviously don’t won’t too many people to know the big discounts they’ll give anyone who tries to cancel.
    I’ve given up on Australian sport (just one pokie palace against another). I follow Barcelona and download the games off the net about an hour after they’re played.

  22. K17

    Foxtel have finally gone the streaming option for a reason.

    There’s so much competition now for them, can’t see them holding onto all their live sporting program rights for much longer.

  23. confessions@1594

    I wouldn’t want to see Labor abuse standing orders. But at present things are totally one way in the House.

    Makes harry jenkins look totally naive though.

    The other one wasn’t much better.

    At least slipper kept them all in line or outski!

  24. SF

    [ I doubt hansen would’ve been appointed by reagan had he been noisy about global warming before his appointment.]

    The siutation in 1981 was far different from what it is today. In those days, even Thatcher was keen on taking action on AGW. The denier movements were more focused on smoking and CFCs. Interestingly, when DuPont found a way of managing to replace CFCs cheaply, the Ozone-layer denier movement collapsed. Bush Snr in the late 1980s introduced a scheme to reduce So2 in the air structurally similar to carbon trading and that passed without a fuss. It also worked.

    So I’m not sure if Hanson would have missed out had he been vocal prior to appointment.

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