Essential Research: 50-50

Still no sign of Newspoll, but the ever-reliable Essential Research still has a two-party deadlock, and offers responses on Peter Cosgrove, unions, parental leave and intolerance.

Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition by a point to 43%, Labor by two to 38%. The Greens are down a point to 8%, the Palmer United Party down one to 3% and others down to two to 7%. Also covered:

• Only 4% rate Peter Cosgrove “not a good choice” for Governor-General, with 30%, 34% and 11% respectively rating the choice excellent, good and acceptable.

• Forty-three per cent are happy for the Governor-General to be appointed by the government, with 40% favouring direct election.

• Sixty-one per cent think unions “important for Australian working people today”, compared with only 30% who think them not important, with 45% thinking workers would be better off if unions were stronger compared with 27% for worse off.

• In response to a question which first explains the specifics of the government’s policy, including the $150,000 ceiling and 1.5% levy, only 23% favoured the government scheme over 36% for the current policy and 32% for neither.

• There are also questions on the prevalence on various forms of intolerance, which you can read about in the report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

875 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. @guytaur/548

    Sounds like the opening remarks Abbott tick of approval to not spend.

    ‘the scope to trim a little more and lock in the return to surplus would be prudent.’

  2. Grief is a funny thing. 25 years after my father’s death from lung cancer, I read this today —

    ‘In 1967, the conclusions were even starker…were it not for smoking, ‘practically none’ of the …deaths from lung cancer would have occurred.’

    …and found myself in tears.

    Seriously, if you’re a smoker, give it up now. Your early death will haunt your children for the rest of their lives – all those occasions you still should have been around for, and you weren’t.

    It’s not just your life. You’re important to other people, as well. Your death will leave a hole in their lives nothing can ever fill.

    Seek help. Just do it. Please.

  3. guytaur@503

    “@Simon_Cullen: Tony Abbott says he’s standing by his comment on SPC’s workplace agreement, despite accusations from @SharmanStone that he lied.”

    Lets see if ANY of the media take abbott on regarding this.

    We have the company stating what employment conditions are on one hand and what the government is saying on the other.

    Then we have a long standing tory MHR saying abbott & hockey is lying about working conditions.

    Abbott is also saying cadbury was ‘different’ yet transcripts of the time indicate otherwise.

    An alert media would get heaps of stories out of it all. But I doubt the media will go much further with it, apart from shorten next week in QT – thats about the only way it will get air time.

    PS Howe FFS just STFU. Every time he opens his mouth he is a gift to the tories.

  4. Re Dave @554 – Abbott has been caught out as either lying or as basing major Government decisions on woefully inaccurate advice. Either way, he is unfit to be PM. The media should crucify him but they won’t.

  5. Steve – Yes, Looks very much like it.

    Gutless media. Simkin covering the libs arse on ABC with the review of penality rates etc by FWA.

    Up to Shorten to run with it in QT next week.

  6. [Thank you very much Paul Howes. What a marvelous headline in the SMH you made.

    Wages too high, says union boss]

    Id like to see an example of ex-Wunderkind Howes ever saying anything sensible.

  7. [PS Howe FFS just STFU. Every time he opens his mouth he is a gift to the tories.]

    I agree – if there was ever a time to let the LNP have the floor, this is it – their in-fighting over IR and industrial policy shows the divisions in the party and the move from a ‘liberal’ party prepared to invest in industry to an ideological tea party that believes ‘the solution’ is poverty wages and higher unemployment to drag down conditions for lower income Australians – all labor need do is give Stone the floor, and gently quote her in the background. They need to point out that SPC was after assistance for upgrades that would have set the business up for value-adding and growth that could save local growers and many thousands of local jobs and supporting businesses. It is interesting to see Stone finally cracking on this – she has been seen as a bit useless in her electorate of late for not standing up for other local businesses and being in a party wedded to free trade agreements that do not protect the food growers from dumping. I hope she becomes an independent.

    can someone make the point that SPC and other manufacturers need to pay above award wages because of the mining boom? many country towns have low unemployment now because lower skill labour are going to the mines and this less regulated IR sector is paying well over the award. it is supply and demand rather than unions that are giving workers the capacity to ask for higher wages. Also, any workplace that keeps it’s employees typically ends up paying above award wages with annual wage increases. They will not keep their workers if they don’t pay this. There is nothing in the SPC agreement that is over the top. compare it to Abbott and Hockey’s conditions to see who is over-compensated for what they produce.

  8. Did any of those attacking Howes actually listen to the speech ?

    He said wage growth IN SOME SECTORS had grown too fast whilst also stating penalty rates must be maintained.

    Quite reasonable comments indicating a sensible, middle ground, pragmatic position.

  9. Rex I agree but surely you don’t expect the media to report sensationalism in context?

    We could do with a few years of HawkeLike IR negotiations rather than the warefare we have these days.

  10. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    More on Indonesia, importing beef from Japan:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-05/japan-beef-to-indonesia/5239534

    There goes that part of the agriculture sector.]

    Simply amazing. They left out the bit about the Abbott Government’s treatment of Indonesia entirely. The Indonesian Ambassador to Australia is still in Indonesia.

    They also left out the bit about Indonesia’s goal being to grow all its own beef.

  11. [guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    @Simon_Cullen: Govt frontbencher @BriggsJamie has described Tasmania as an economic “basket case” in defending the decision to give money to Cadbury]

    Briggs is right but will giving $16 million fix the problems?

  12. Can we stop falling for the ‘the media says X said this in X’s speech. OMG! What a disaster!” thing, and either listen to speeches ourselves or wait for the transcript before we get all hot and bothered?

    I don’t know how many pages we’ve wasting here in the past, angsting about something the media reported someone said, only to find out that they’d taken the comment totally out of context.

  13. victoria@563

    Rex Douglas

    I listened to the whole Paul Howes address. I felt that he made some very sensible and pertinent points

    But as usual he is too naive to realise the bits that damage his own constituents in Labor are the points reported and amplified.

    He should just run the union and STFU.

  14. [“@Simon_Cullen: Tony Abbott says he’s standing by his comment on SPC’s workplace agreement, despite accusations from @SharmanStone that he lied.”]
    So Mr Abbott, just who DID lie?

  15. davidwh@564

    We could do with a few years of Hawke Like IR negotiations rather than the warfare we have these days.

    When employers and the tories are trying to reduce workers current working conditions with weekend and penality rates etc via the current “review” by FWA it is clear who has declared the “War” and against whom.

    When the PM and Treasurer lie about SPCA current working conditions it is clear who is demonising workers.

    But then its coming from the party of work choices, attacking workers is in their DNA.

  16. Rex Douglas + victoria

    [

    He said wage growth IN SOME SECTORS ]

    Very true but only the truly naïve would not be aware of how the media would report such comments .Especially in the middle of the current SPC + conditions crap.

  17. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 4:17 pm | PERMALINK
    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    More on Indonesia, importing beef from Japan:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-05/japan-beef-to-indonesia/5239534

    There goes that part of the agriculture sector.

    Simply amazing. They left out the bit about the Abbott Government’s treatment of Indonesia entirely. The Indonesian Ambassador to Australia is still in Indonesia.

    They also left out the bit about Indonesia’s goal being to grow all its own beef.]

    There you go. Indonesia is tapping into other markets to supply their beef

  18. PRELIMINARY NOTICE

    The next get together of the Mid North Coast Pollbludgers is to be held on Friday 28th March at Port Macquarie. On previous experiences a good time will be held by all and all problems will be solved as the afternoon progresses.

    Anyone interested please ask William for my email address. There are even some spare beds available for visiting PBers 😀

  19. Paul Howes came across as sensible and, dare I say, ‘adult’ , in contrast to the ideologic ranting, half truths and outright lies from the Government and its backers.

    He deplored isolated instances of corruption in unions while making the point that any Royal Commission would be a political exercise. He made the point that wages growth has been modest in recent years and that IR disputes are at an all time low. That the government and businesses can’t blame unions or workers for difficult business conditions.

    Especially he made the point that he wants to stop the IR ‘see saw’ and work with the elected government to find ways to accommodate fair wages, salaries and work conditions as well as business profitability. It’s the right thing to do but he’s probably got bugger-all chance with this government. He indicated a willingness to negotiate, which could ( and probably will) be misquoted. But he was talking sense.

  20. dave #583

    I call it as I see it.

    The ALP, whilst not perfect, is a far better option for Govt than this current destructive and deceitful Govt.

  21. Howes was attempting to take the idealogy out of IR and focus on the economic realities we all are facing. Haven’t see much of that for a long time.

  22. [Did any of those attacking Howes actually listen to the speech ?]

    Of course not. The Communist Party of Pollbludger only likes union leaders who threaten to shoot the bosses and expropriate their property. Union leaders who actually concern themselves with the prosperity of their members in the context of the free-market economy are obviously neoncon fascist imperialist zionist hirelings.

  23. Rex Douglas@587

    dave #583

    I call it as I see it.

    The ALP, whilst not perfect, is a far better option for Govt than this current destructive and deceitful Govt.

    Well you have been consistently and openly anti Labor over a long period.

    Pity you didn’t realise the perils of tories long before now.

    If you didn’t vote Labor you directly or indirectly helped abbott get in.

  24. [If you didn’t vote Labor you directly or indirectly helped abbott get in.]

    Disagree. All you had to do was put Labor ahead of the Libs on your ticket.

  25. Joyce was noting the other day that graziers in Queensland were suiciding because of the drought. Stone has said that orchardists in the Shepparton area are committing suicide. When Melbourne Water was privitised, the suicide rate was around one in every thousand employees.

    And so it goes.

    I wonder whether politicians should raise suicide in this way and, if they do, whether they should be up front about comparative suicide rates and whether they should express concern about all work-related suicides?

  26. davidwh@589

    Howes was attempting to take the idealogy out of IR and focus on the economic realities we all are facing. Haven’t see much of that for a long time.

    It makes him more of a fool to do so with an abbott government.

    Oh – for the record the last time Unions “took the ideology out of IR” was the accords – wherein the employers took the benefits and as soon as they were able stuck the boot into the unions once again.

    Keating is on the record with some fine reaction to all of that.

    You a “Work Choices” tory having the temerity to call for the “ideology to be taken out of IR”. FFS!

    abbott and many employers would have most workers back in a “Hungry Mile” situation at the drop of a hat if they could.

    These days it is about what goes on in the US.

  27. davidwh@594

    If you didn’t vote Labor you directly or indirectly helped abbott get in.


    Disagree. All you had to do was put Labor ahead of the Libs on your ticket.

    If Labor didn’t get the vote it was another one they needed to catch up.

  28. There is a lot that is not right with a range of economic settings in Australia.

    If Howes is offering Abetz a chance to talk it through to gain a comprehensive settlement/accord, that would be worth doing IMHO.

    When the GFC hit, German industry did not fire anyone, much. They had a big gabfest. They put workers on proportionate time, paid them proportionately, and the Government kicked in with some give and take on workers taxes. When the time came for industry to gear up again, every was in place and raring to go.

    Smart people, the germans.

    In Australia, though, intransigents abound.

    The three things that the unions could put on the table immediately are:

    (1) reversion to the Labor policy on rich and poor superannuants
    (2) getting rid of FBI rorts as per where Labor wanted to go
    (3) getting rid of the Spiv rorts as per Labor policy
    (4) leaving industry super funds intact.

    If the Liberals baulk at those four then you know that they are not interested in equity. They are interested in ideology and in taking money from the poor to give to the spivs and the rich, including especially the rich spivs.

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