BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

ReachTEL plus Essential plus Morgan equals no change at all in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

New results from ReachTEL, Essential and Morgan have finally put some meat on BludgerTrack’s New Year bones. However, their entry into the pool has had very little impact on the voting intention numbers, which hopefully means the model was doing its job. Both major parties are up a bit on the primary vote after being down a bit last time, but only Labor has made up the difference, the Coalition still being 0.8% off their starting point. With the ups and downs of the minor parties amounting to minor statistical noise, two-party preferred stays exactly where it was following Labor’s half-point gain a week ago. Things are calm on the surface, but the infusion of new data has helped smooth out the eccentricities of recent state-level projections, most notably the extravagant swing to Labor that was showing up in Queensland for a few weeks there. That shaves three off a still ample tally of Labor gains, suggesting Bill Glasson has his work cut out for him at next Saturday’s Griffith by-election. The seat projection has the Coalition down this week a seat each in New South Wales and Victoria, which taken together with the Queensland adjustment makes a net gain of one seat nationally.

ReachTEL had personal ratings this week which I’ve yet to remark on, and can finally little to say about now that I am because the charges are very slight. The best headline writers could do was talk up a 1.8% increase in Tony Abbott’s “very good” rating and a 2% drop in Bill Shorten’s. The latter might be part of a trend, but there’s little reason yet to think that the former is. ReachTEL doesn’t get included in the BludgerTrack leadership polling aggregates, as its five-point scale and compulsory answering mean it can’t readily be compared with other outfits. Nonetheless, there has been a change in the BludgerTrack ratings this week, not because of new data, but because I’ve implemented a means of standardising the polls to stop the trendline blowing around in response to the house bias of the most recently reporting pollster. This has had the effect of moderating the downward turn in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, which continues to hang off a single Essential Research result, the only leadership poll rating to emerge so far this year. Presumably that will be changing very shortly as the bigger polling outlets emerge from hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,468 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. US,

    That assumes Napthine will be leader in Novemeber.

    Watch out for the young guard puckering up to babies or making public attacks (a la Matthew Guy and the CFMEU). It might be the beginning of the end for Dr Denis.

  2. pseph

    [That vote was lost because of the split in the republican side caused by the direct electionists voting No.]

    I went to a public debate in Corowa (where I had a nice chat with Turnbull during the coffee break) where Ted Mack and Phil Cleary promised all present that if the referendum didn’t get up, they’d make sure we’d have another chance to vote for one within a couple of years.

    Knew they were lying at the time, but of course most people took them at their word.

    A very valuable early lesson in the dangers of populist politics.

  3. Psephos @2344

    The personal following of members of the monarch has always dismayed me. It is an irrelevance to the debate of wether or not we should have our own head of state.

  4. [The personal following of members of the monarch has always dismayed me. It is an irrelevance to the debate of wether or not we should have our own head of state.]

    It should be, but sadly it isn’t.

  5. I wouldn’t look too much into that republic poll. They oscillate a bit because there’s no serious national discussion on it (Yeah, I know ARM are out there but it’s not really a prominent discussion.)

  6. Labour of Love @2353

    I’d love to be.

    Anyone know where the Blue Thai Restaurant is?? I could not find it on google.

    I want to be the paparazzi there, I want to give Tony a piece of my mind next time I see him.

  7. GG,

    Agree on the Libs and thier term in office, however a fellow poster predicted something like 60-40 tpp which to me seems a bit of a stretch.

    “Labor has their prey in sight and know how to catch it” – pretty confident statement given what we have witnessed Federally over the last 4 years. I would be taking nothing for granted if i was Daniel Andrews and he will need to do more than yawn if he expects my vote.

  8. [I went to a public debate in Corowa (where I had a nice chat with Turnbull during the coffee break) where Ted Mack and Phil Cleary promised all present that if the referendum didn’t get up, they’d make sure we’d have another chance to vote for one within a couple of years. ]

    I have no words adequate to express my contempt for Cleary.

  9. GG saw Matthew Guy on Victoria’s 7.30 on Friday. He is one smooth, confident politician. I agree the LNP will turn to him if Napthine doesn’t get some improvement in the polls soon. My question is, isnt he in the Legislative Council? Could he become leader from there?

  10. RE Napthine
    _________
    I have a hunch that Abbott’s unpopularity will be a factor too in the general Victorian situation

    He will be no help and Napthine’s anquish this week over the Ardmona issue seemed genuine,as was Ryan with what seemed a genuine critique of Abbott on radio

    the endless problem of suburban rail is an ongoing factor,and the issues like “smart” meters etc which ,with the help of Peter Batchelor turned a problem into a disaster for Labor ..have been forgotten

    on the other hand Andrews is pretty dull but then so is Napthine
    Recently on 3AW Kennett has been very cool re Abbott,musing that Abbott is letting opportunities pass him by…a view shared by that old bore and drunk ..John Elliot.. on the same station(He has a 30 minutes slot on Friday from 5.30 to 6.00 with his son Tom…and it is a Liberal show .)..but there too there is a doubt about Abbott…and little passion for Napthine either

  11. US
    I want to be the paparazzi there, I want to give Tony a piece of my mind next time I see him.

    Fair enough too! I personally could not be bothered pouring water on this f@cked ducks back!

  12. zoomster @2354

    I was born in the North Sydney electorate in 1996 (just 2 months out from Keatings loss), apparently my parents voted for Ted Mack and loved him. Now I tell them they made a mistake in supporting him as his large presence diminished the republican vote by a good few percent in 1999. Aint he a catalyst for sore eyes.

    People in this country never seem to learn the mistakes of populist politics.

  13. Rossmore,

    He either has or is standing for pre-selection in the lower house seat of Kew. So, I guess governing from there is not a problem. The Treasurer in the last Labor Government, John Lenders, was in the Upper House.

  14. [I don’t even know why Reachtel are asking about a republic?]

    I think because Australia Day just passed and it’s kind of almost a political tradition to bring up the republic then, albeit not really loudly.

    I’m surprised there isn’t a question on changing the flag (although, there could be one, waiting to be leaked.)

  15. Carey Moore @2371

    I certainly do a lot of things, but not once have I ever left my house on Australia day. It is a truly embarressing day and night to say the least…

  16. Deblonay, Napthine was in the Kennett LNP Cabinet in the late 90s (Minister for Community Services). He keeps it quiet but he is also a foster parent. He is a vet and a Marist boy. His pet passion is promoting the port of Hastings. As Tories go he’s not bad, but his chances in November dont look strong

  17. rossmcg@2317


    Bemused

    What has age got to do with it. If you cut the mustard you keep the gig, whether you are 22 or 92. I dunno how old laurie Oakes is but he can still outplay the kiddies when he needs to? Somebody said Paul Bongiono is 70!

    Well then we are in agreement on that score, but there is at least one numpty on PB who thinks otherwise.

  18. Rossmore @2374

    For someone as old as him, I do think he resonates well at all in the 18 to early 30’s age bracket at all I reckon. The weekend public transport policy of Labor which he ridiculed is just one example. I reckon people just find him plain boring.

  19. Wasn’t Josie Taylor, the 7:30 Victoria anchor, Dennis Napthine’s Press Secretary in 2013. If so she is hardly impartial?

    I live in Melbourne Ports or Prahran (state). I was telephone robot polled tonight about who I would vote for in a ?state election if it was held tomorrow, then I was askedwho was better at handling various issues, Liberal or Labor

  20. zoomster@2347

    Yes, bemused – you read but you don’t understand’

    The basic role of an MP is to solve people’s problems. Every MPs office does this, every day.


    MPs solve people’s problems through legislation and advocacy.

    Their OFFICE does this, every day.

    Doesn’t mean the MP solves the problems of everybody who comes to their office, or is even aware of them.

    The examples you gave of what MPs do is all to do with how they solve problems for people.

    You don’t seem to understand that ‘big issues’ are issues which cause problems for lots of people.

    So when all else fails, try patronising?

    What you wrote was perfectly clear and I understood it.

    I just happen to have a very different view of the role of an MP and the relative importance of different aspects.

  21. 2381

    The 7:30 Victoria/Stateline anchor at the last state election left soon after to work for the new Premier`s office. Isn`t that what you were thinking of?

  22. Furthermore, this is a documented example of successfully turning back unauthorised boat arrivals, despite the general view here that it’s impossible. So that is a big win for Morrison.

  23. billie @2381

    Are you actually allowed to retain political party membership if you are hired for the ABC or SBS? I personally would not allow it….

  24. Rossmore@2363

    GG saw Matthew Guy on Victoria’s 7.30 on Friday. He is one smooth, confident politician. I agree the LNP will turn to him if Napthine doesn’t get some improvement in the polls soon. My question is, isnt he in the Legislative Council? Could he become leader from there?

    He is moving to the lower house in November. Seat of Bulleen I think.

  25. Tom & GG thanks

    bemused = when we had a broken manhole cover that 1000 people tramp across a day, it was fixed after 3 months because I
    rang the local state member’s office who tracked down the relevant body, Telstra, Vicroads or whoever. The grizzle about the 3 cameras focussed on broken manhole cover elicited interest, especially as one was in a flat

  26. bemused @2390

    If they try and replace Napthine with Guy before Novemeber, than the government really is toast. It is a complete sideshow to have 3 premiers in the one term. Its no different to NSW 2007-11

  27. Greensborough Growler@2369

    Rossmore,

    He either has or is standing for pre-selection in the lower house seat of Kew. So, I guess governing from there is not a problem. The Treasurer in the last Labor Government, John Lenders, was in the Upper House.

    Nope.
    Mary Wooldridge is fighting Tim Smith (former Mayor of Stonnington) over Kew.

  28. @Psephos/2388

    Disagree, it’ a result of implementation of their policy.

    Why is it big win for 3 deaths? but bad for Labor to implement Pink Batts?

    This is stupid or something?

  29. billie@2391

    Tom & GG thanks

    bemused = when we had a broken manhole cover that 1000 people tramp across a day, it was fixed after 3 months because I
    rang the local state member’s office who tracked down the relevant body, Telstra, Vicroads or whoever. The grizzle about the 3 cameras focussed on broken manhole cover elicited interest, especially as one was in a flat

    That hardly required the attention of a politician.
    I would have looked to see who owned the manhole cover and phoned them. If I didn’t get a response quickly then I would have got a staff member in my local members office involved.

    I am not pointing to you, but there really are some people who go to local members for all sorts of minor or just plain silly things when they should go to the relevant organisation concerned. Some are obviously lonely and just want someone to talk to. Sad really. 🙁

  30. Psephos,

    Three people died while crossing a river in the jungle.

    If this is true, they died entirely as a result of their own actions.

    That is an extremely callous remark.
    If you represent the views of the ALP then I think it’s high time you left the party & signed up with the Opus Dei crowd now running the Libs.

    If it is true, and I don’t know that it is, then they were put in the position of being lost by the actions of the Australian govt. An immoral, probably illegal & unconscionable act I never thought Australia or an Australian could be capable of nor approve of.

    Shame on them. Shame on you. Shame on all of us.

  31. 2396

    Unless it turns around a hits them in the face, like if one of the boats they have bought gets refueled and resupplied in Indonesia and then gets here.

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